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Article: Arcia, Vargas and Rebellion

oswaldo arcia kennys vargas
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#41 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 12:44 PM

If I am a pitcher just throw Arcia a couple of balls in the dirt and something low and away and it is an easy out.  Most of his home runs have come when the other team is way ahead or behind and they decide to actually challenge him and throw legitimate strikes.  When guys are on base too often he is an easy out usually via a K.

 

Reality is far more complicated than that.

 

11 HR total.

4 HR in tie games.

6 HR in games within 1 run.

7 HR in games within 2 runs.

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#42 Dman

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 12:51 PM

Reality is far more complicated than that.

 

11 HR total.

4 HR in tie games.

6 HR in games within 1 run.

7 HR in games within 2 runs.

  

That is what happens when you don;t check facts.  Egg on the face. :banghead:

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#43 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 12:55 PM

That is what happens when you don;t check facts.  Egg on the face. :banghead:

 

I like to poke in and remind everyone of this little thing called "observational bias" every now and again. :D

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#44 Dman

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 01:02 PM

I like to poke in and remind everyone of this little thing called "observational bias" every now and again. :D

 

Yeah I knew he had hit a couple in close situations but wasn't thinking\feeling in the 70% range.  Good call out.  I think my frustration at watching him strike out so much clouded my memory.  I also didn't know where to go to check.  Lazy deserves to be called out. :)


#45 drivlikejehu

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 01:22 PM

I looked up five players, the only ones I could think of that came up with the Twins at a young age and played along time.I listed four of those players, the other was Cuddy but I felt he didn't really apply becuase his first full year was at age 25.At 25 he had a .779 OPS, career .810 OPS.He had 2 years with an OPS over .900 and 2 more over .850.

 

It is very, very rare that you see a guy make the big leagues at age 22, have a long career and not improve upon those numbers. Typically, they k less, BB more, and develop more power as they age.My point is, if you start with a .730 OPS you may end in a very good spot. 

 

Delmon Young had a .741 OPS at age 22 and .733 at age 23. That's right around his career averages. Luis Rivas never really improved on his age 21 performance. Those are just two quick Twins examples. Ben Grieve peaked between age 22-24 before hanging around as a lesser player for a while.

 

Players do not develop predictably. There are certain trends of course, but the degree to which young players improve is much less than is commonly believed- something Fangraphs did a good job examining recently.

 

Though I am optimistic about Arcia, his plate discipline issues are a real problem. I wish it was 100% certain he would overcome it, but that's not how baseball works.

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#46 tobi0040

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 02:18 PM

Delmon Young had a .741 OPS at age 22 and .733 at age 23. That's right around his career averages. Luis Rivas never really improved on his age 21 performance. Those are just two quick Twins examples. Ben Grieve peaked between age 22-24 before hanging around as a lesser player for a while.

 

Players do not develop predictably. There are certain trends of course, but the degree to which young players improve is much less than is commonly believed- something Fangraphs did a good job examining recently.

 

Though I am optimistic about Arcia, his plate discipline issues are a real problem. I wish it was 100% certain he would overcome it, but that's not how baseball works.

 

Really not a way either of us will be able to convince the other on this one, especially without the other thinking they are cherry picking.I would guess, players generally improve from their rookie years. They generally become better hitters, generally more patient, etc. 

 

In the case of Arcia, if he ends up with a career .730 OPS and can't field a lick in the OF, he may struggle to stick in the big leagues.If he can become close to an average corner OF defensively and/or improves upon those offensive numbers like Torii Hunter, Carlos Gomez, Ortiz, or even Mauer he is an .800+ OPS guy. He is now making a case to bat DH if the defense does not improve or he certainly locks down a corner OF spot if he sniffs becoming an average defensive player.


#47 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 02:32 PM

I may be wrong here, but I believe both Gomez and Ortiz made comments suggesting the Twins tried to change their approach.It appears, based on Arcia's comments that he has heard the same thing, enough so that he went out of his way to warn another young player.

 

And JJ Hardy and Torii Hunter.Who knows how much of it is true, maybe none of it. However there's a lot of cooks in the kitchen at Target Field, so the chances are good that where there's smoke there's fire, even if it's small and contained to one or two voices.


#48 Kwak

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 02:33 PM

Another problem for Arcia is that in a year or two he may have to fend off some serious challengers.Those hitting stats had better show that aforementioned improvement.


#49 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 02:47 PM

I wrote about this the other week but someone has already gotten to Vargas to alter his swing:

 

http://twinsdaily.co...-watching-r2950

 

I'm hoping one of the beat writers will address this. 

 

Bump. I love these gifs even if it's just four pitches (SSS alert) which I think is acknowledged - great job, Nick :)

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When I hear a pitcher is throwing a “simulated game” my first thought is that he repeated the opposing lineup 10,000 times. - Jonathan Judge

#50 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 02:50 PM

And JJ Hardy and Torii Hunter.Who knows how much of it is true, maybe none of it. However there's a lot of cooks in the kitchen at Target Field, so the chances are good that where there's smoke there's fire, even if it's small and contained to one or two voices.

 

Yeah I'd tend to believe someone else is telling Arcia to just be himself, thus Arcia passing that along to Vargas. 

When I hear a pitcher is throwing a “simulated game” my first thought is that he repeated the opposing lineup 10,000 times. - Jonathan Judge

#51 TheLeviathan

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 03:54 PM

Yeah I'd tend to believe someone else is telling Arcia to just be himself, thus Arcia passing that along to Vargas.


It boggles my mind that people are so opposed to a poor reflection on the organization that they'd rip these kids for what they are working on just so there isn't the slightest negative criticism.

This team was too heavy handed for a long time in their player molds and, much to Ryan and others credit, that's no longer the case. So let's relish in this new, better way of operating as a team and coaching staff and not be so damn defensive of the poorer methods left behind.

#52 jokin

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 04:08 PM

Bump. I love these gifs even if it's just four pitches (SSS alert) which I think is acknowledged - great job, Nick :)

 

ISWYDT

 

and I approve..

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#53 ScottyB

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 04:38 PM

DISAGREE!! Hoping for prospects to develop and the lineup to sort out to this batting order:
Buxton CF
Mauer 1B Dozier 2B
Dozier 2BMauer 1B
Sano 3B
Vargas DH
Santana SSArcia RF
Arcia RFPinto C
Hicks LF
Pinto CSantana SS

This is hoping they reach requisite professional skills to make this happen

(Mauer is high OBP guy, Dozier keeps up 20 HR/yr avg, etc)

 

I prefer the speed of Hicks and Santana at the bottom of the lineup.Bunching Hicks, Santana, Buxton and Dozier together gives a nice balance of speed and power.But I wuldn't have a problem flipping Dozier and Mauer.

Edited by ScottyB, 18 August 2014 - 04:39 PM.


#54 DocBauer

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 06:12 PM

Is it possible Arcia's comments were a bit off the cuff, filled with some truth, and it's being blown waaaaay out of proportion?
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"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

 

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#55 DocBauer

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 06:35 PM

I'd like to state that I believe in playing to a player's strengths. I also maintain there are very different hitters. Mauer's stroke is built to spray line drives all over the field with gapper and some HR power. Get over him being a 30 HR hitter, he just isn't. Dozier, small than Mauer, has a stroke, and has made certain adjustments assuredly, that allow him more lift on his balls for HR power. In the Twins past, Gary Gaetti was much smaller than Kent Hrbek, but while Hrbek usually produced a higher BA, Gaetti usually had more pure power. HOF 3B Wade Boggs was a very similar hitter to Mauer, as another comparison/example. The one year Boston put him at 3rd in the BO he produced much higher power numbers than normal, but all of his other perifferals took a fall. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong here, but wasn't the problem with a still very young Ortiz that he was injured a great deal? He showed potential and power but had a hard time being in the lineup daily. The Twins had to make a decision, felt the decision was best not to outbid, and let him go. Suddenly he seemed to get more healthy and productive. There is nothing wrong with hitting the other way. But it's also a skill that can be worked on and learned, and not necessarily a strength of a strapping young power hitter. I know the Twins, over the years, have talked about teaching guys to hit the other way. And I know a COUPLE former players have blasted the Twins for this. Once again, please correct me if wrong, but have we ever actually ever heard the Twins, for lack of a better term, DEMAND hitters observe this approach or they can't play? Or were they simply trying to make certain guys a better hitter overall? I guess it sounds obvious, but to me the most obvious approach is to play to a hitter's strength, even if he is a pull hitter. Next, you want to teach them to simply not try to pull every damn pitch they see. Just have a little control and discipline. Third, NOW you begin to get them to shorten strokes and make contact, and go the other way when pitched consistently outside. Overly simplistic? Yes. Absolutely. But isn't this the approach that makes the most sense? If all you do is pull the ball, not only could you strike out at high rates, but defensive shifts and ML pitchers hitting the outside corners consistently will result in weak ground ball after ground ball.

"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

 

--Lou Brown


#56 DocBauer

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 06:38 PM

One final thought...IF the Twins are indeed guilty of trying too hard to teach hitters to hit the opposite way, stubbornly, is that perhaps a reflection of years spent playing on the turf in the dome? And apologies for my last post running together. About half my posts do that for reasons beyond my control.

"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

 

--Lou Brown


#57 chopper0080

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 07:52 PM

Do one thing exceptionally well first, THEN learn to do everything else as well.  You have to have something to build upon before you can become well-rounded.

 

Let em learn.  Let em grow.


#58 tobi0040

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 08:01 PM

Leviathan, doesn't a recent comment from Arcia mean the twins might not have left this thinking behind?

#59 TheLeviathan

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 08:06 PM

Leviathan, doesn't a recent comment from Arcia mean the twins might not have left this thinking behind?

 

That's exactly what it means - and it's great!


#60 tobi0040

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Posted 18 August 2014 - 08:09 PM

That's exactly what it means - and it's great!

 

I am a little confused.  If the Twins have changed and no longer tell pull hitters to slap the ball the other way, why would a guy up basically one year warn a player that has been up a month, "they are going to tell you to slap the ball the other way but keep pulling HR's?"

 

If they don't do that anymore, why would Arcia tell Vargas they will?  I think I am misunderstanding your post.

Edited by tobi0040, 18 August 2014 - 08:09 PM.




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