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Article: Quietly Solid

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#21 DocBauer

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 08:18 PM

Gibson is absolutely part of the 2015 rotation. And there is room to improve. We still haven't seen the best of Mr Gibson. Then you pencil in Hughes as well. And as well as he's pitched, I also wonder if we've yet to see his full potential as well. Thus far, there is nothing to indicate Nolasco is headed down either the dreaded "bust" or "TJ" roads. It would appear he is a young 30yo veteran who simply suffered a bad and disappointing season due to minor injury he tried to play through, manifested all the more being his first year on a new contract with a new team. I like this first 3. Milone might not be anything special, but appears to be a very solid option. A long term future with the Twins might not be in the cards. But, he seems to be a very solid LHSP who has put up pretty solid numbers thus far. His first start was solid as well. It would seem we have a solid guy here, and a really nice pickup from Ryan. Pelfrey? I don't know. He wasn't my first choice to sign. (It was Kazmir. And Kazmir before 2013 as well) But if finally healthy and ready, he could provide a solid fill in or temp SP. I still can't forget that he actually looked pretty good in '13 before tiring. He's not an answer, but again, he might fill a role. No question May and Meyer are the future, and hopefully the future is 2015 if not now. But how great is it to look at that list of 7 SP candidates for 2015 instead of trying to sort through some of the AAAA fodder we've had to work with and wade through the past few seasons? And before 2015 is over and done, we may see Berrios, Gilmartin, And possibly Darnell and Duffy as options?

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#22 TheLeviathan

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 08:38 PM

I think wins is a telling stat. It indicates a SP simply pitching well enough for his team to have a chance to win. 

 

And that's all it indicates.  The factors that determine whether it was "well enough" combine a whole host of factors well beyond that player's control.

 

No one is saying it's useless, just far from the go-to.  (Far, FAR from it)


#23 AM.

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 08:45 PM

Well, surely we can all at least agree that Bartolo Colon deserved the Cy Young over Johan in 2005, right?
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#24 Dantes929

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 08:53 PM

Gibson could throw 32 8 inning shutouts in a season, and still lose all 32 games. Should 0-32 be held against him? Does that make him a terrible pitcher?

Regardless, it's good to see the incremental improvement, and I look forward to watching him pitch for the Twins in 2015


32 8 inning shutouts would at worst result in a 0-0 record but I would love to see Gibson test your theory. I am guessing he would be about 30-0. I don't think W-L record is the most meaningful stat but I don't think it is meaningless either. Yes, baseball is a team game. No one believes that more than me but at the same time there is a reason they attached that stat to pitchers in the first place. It is way more meaningful than W-L records of managers IMO. Pitchers simply have more effect on a game than any other player. At the end of the day did you hold the other team to fewer runs than the other guy did given the conditions of the day. Over time if you had a great ERA, SO/9, quality starts, WHIP, etc it will be reflected in your record and vice versa. Of course there are outfliers to every stat. Liriano's best SO/9 since 2006 he was 3-10 with a 5.34 ERA. Maddux and Buehrle had poor SO/9 but excellent SO/BB which is the stat I prefer but there are anomalies there as well. People say there are times when you just need a strikeout and I will respond by saying a ground ball to 3rd or the pitcher is almost always better if there are guys on base. I look at most stats but the ones I look at most are still ERA and quality start %. Others will have favorite categories but they are mostly all interrelated.

#25 Thegrin

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 09:02 PM

In today's baseball, the Quality Start (QS) is the most telling start.Hughes, Gibson & Correia all had 13 QS in 23 starts.These QS give the Twins a chance to win, and their improving hitting is getting to the point where they do win when getting the opportunity.


#26 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 09:31 PM

Well, surely we can all at least agree that Bartolo Colon deserved the Cy Young over Johan in 2005, right?

Obviously. I mean, who can argue that?

Grrrrrr...

#27 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 09:33 PM

In today's baseball, the Quality Start (QS) is the most telling start. Hughes, Gibson & Correia all had 13 QS in 23 starts. These QS give the Twins a chance to win, and their improving hitting is getting to the point where they do win when getting the opportunity.


Given the huge decrease in offense, the QS - a stat I didn't like in the first place - seems more meaningless.
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#28 Don't Feed the Greed Guy

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 09:38 PM

This winter several teams can warm themselves by burning piles of statistical readouts that measure WAR, K/9, etc... All the same, one team will "win" the World Series by combining pitching (the focus of this article), defense, and hitting in a formula that generates more wins than losses.

 

At the end of the day, you have to win the game.


#29 TheLeviathan

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 09:41 PM

This winter several teams can warm themselves by burning piles of statistical readouts that measure WAR, K/9, etc... All the same, one team will "win" the World Series by combining pitching (the focus of this article), defense, and hitting in a formula that generates more wins than losses.

 

At the end of the day, you have to win the game.

 

Right, using the pitching, defense, and hitting.  The winning pitcher is only partially responsible for one of those three things.


#30 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 09:49 PM

This winter several teams can warm themselves by burning piles of statistical readouts that measure WAR, K/9, etc... All the same, one team will "win" the World Series by combining pitching (the focus of this article), defense, and hitting in a formula that generates more wins than losses.

 

At the end of the day, you have to win the game.

 

Absolutely. Team wins and losses trump all... But starting pitcher win-loss records don't closely correspond to talent. Tony Fiore once went 10-3. Two years later, Johan went 16-7 and lost the Cy Young to an inferior pitcher who went 21-8. What do all those wins and losses mean? They mean the team won and lost games while that pitcher was on record. It doesn't mean that pitcher was better than the competition.

 

If looked at in the aggregate, is there correlation? Absolutely. But individually, pitcher win-loss is far too volatile and dependent on other factors to mean much unless the pitcher is an extreme outlier (eg. a 3-20 pitcher is almost surely bad, a 20-3 pitcher is almost surely awesome).

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#31 ashburyjohn

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 09:55 PM

At the end of the day, the "number of World Series rings" is still the most telling statistic for starting pitchers.Phil Hughes has one, none of these other bums have any.

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#32 old nurse

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Posted 14 August 2014 - 10:45 PM

Well, surely we can all at least agree that Bartolo Colon deserved the Cy Young over Johan in 2005, right?

Colon should have been behind Rivera in the voting for second place


#33 Don't Feed the Greed Guy

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Posted 15 August 2014 - 06:09 AM

One last run at this:

 

2013: Number of starting pitchers with ten or more wins = 0

2014: Number of starting pitchers with ten or more wins = 2

 

Given the topic, that's a "quietly solid" sign of a reemerging starting rotation, with Hughes and Gibson at the top of that recovery. Sure, the team will need pitchers who can miss bats, stay durable and pitch 200+ innings, and have lineups that can hit behind them.

 

But at the end of the day, pitchers are credited with victories and losses in the box score. No other player receives a "W" or an "L" by his stat line. There's a basic, logical reason for this--good pitching wins ballgames...most of the time.

 

Seth's lead points out that "another 90 loss season is within reach." Yep, especially when Correia, Nolasco, and Fien follow Hughes and Gibson on the 2014 win chart with five victories each. We won't see the Twins post a winning record until five or six pitchers register 10+ victories--no matter what their other peripheral numbers might be. As winning pitchers, Hughes and Gibson have the Twins on the right track.


#34 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 15 August 2014 - 07:11 AM

My vote for Quietly Solid -Tony O's Cuban sandwiches at Target Field.

 

So good. I get one every time I go to a game now.

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#35 troyhobbs

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Posted 15 August 2014 - 11:55 AM

You have to be optimistic about the future of the Twins staff. Hughes and Gibson provide the foundation for a competitive rotation in 2015. A strong finish from Nolasco will offer further stability going in to next year. Finally, having Milone, Meyer, May and Pelfrey competing for the last two spots next year provides multiple opportunities to come out of Ft. Meyers with a competitive rotation.

I think you can be cautiously optimistic.  If your 2 best pitchers are hovering around league average that leaves 3 spots filled with guys that are below average.  Hopefully Nolasco isn't as bad as he's looked this year, hopefully May and Meyer live up to the hype, and hopefully Milone can be average.  Pelfrey is toast.  Gibson looks like part of the future and maybe they can extend Hughes if he keeps it going because he could be more useful in 3 or 4 years than he will be over the next 2 unless they sign a true ace to anchor the rotation.


#36 huhguy

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Posted 15 August 2014 - 03:24 PM

Quiet?  How?  He has been spectacular, both on the good and bad side...how does that equate to Quiet or Solid?