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Article: Josh Willingham Traded To Royals for Minor League Pitcher

josh willingham jason adam
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#41 spycake

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 08:04 AM

Adam is nothing like the soft tossing Gilmartin.He's more like Pressly (Rule 5), Welker, Pryor, Hoey, etc...Interesting bullpen arm that throws hard but hasn't gotten good results yet.

I was thinking more prospect ranking and stats, rather than pitching style (or handedness, which I noted).  He's more like Gilmartin than May in that regard.  Pressly's not a bad comp either -- he got hit hard as a starter in AA, fared better after a move to the pen.  Good to get someone similar without the Rule 5 strings attached!

 

The others you mention were career relievers, big K/9 but also big BB/9 too.  Welker and Hoey in particular were suspiciously old, Pryor is more interesting on age and level advancement alone.

 

Adam's profile suggests pretty stable and modest peripherals, maybe getting hit a little hard but perhaps some bad FIP luck too?


#42 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 08:15 AM

No doubt they try to make him a starter. I say go hire the Pirates' pitching coaches to do it....

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#43 iTwins

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 08:26 AM

I enjoyed watching Willingham play with the Twins, but it was time for him to move on. With his less than stellar numbers this season and defensive woes, I was surprised the Twins got the return they did. Jason Adam is a solid addition to a team that could use as much pitching depth they could get.

 

Worst case scenario, he's organizational depth in AAA.

Likely scenario, he's a solid right handed option out of the pen.

Best case scenario, he works on his third pitch and becomes a reliable starter.

 

Not bad for an expiring contract slugger who hasn't "slugged" so much the last two years.

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#44 Teflon

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 08:37 AM

Based on SMASH, (my new favorite thing) Josh WIllingham was the 6th strongest Twin of all time.

 

1. Don Mincher

2. Harmon Killebrew

3. Jim Thome

4. Tim Laudner

5. David Ortiz

6. Josh WIllingham

 

SMASH is simply SLG divided by BA. It measures the average number of bases associated to each hit. The ranking is based on the highest peak season SMASH value for each hitter.


#45 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 08:56 AM

I really do hope TR has another trade or two in the works for some bullpen arms... at this point, I'd be happy with cash considerations as the team needs to get guys like Tonkin up and getting PT.


#46 beckmt

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 09:27 AM

Twins at least are not selling low.They are getting some prospects for players sent(some lottery tickets), but better than nothing or org filler.Adam looks like another one of these, good job TR.

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#47 spycake

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 09:45 AM

Likely scenario, he's a solid right handed option out of the pen.

I agree with your overall take, but a "likely scenario" as a plus major leaguer is a bit too generous right now.  At this point, his most likely / mean outcome is probably fringe AAA starter / MLB reliever (think Swarzak outside of 2013).  Fien/Burton/Duensing would be an outcome a step or two above that.


#48 birdwatcher

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 01:47 PM

Anderson should have no trouble fixing Jason Adam.

 

Ducking now...


#49 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 01:58 PM

Based on SMASH, (my new favorite thing) Josh WIllingham was the 6th strongest Twin of all time.

 

1. Don Mincher

2. Harmon Killebrew

3. Jim Thome

4. Tim Laudner

5. David Ortiz

6. Josh WIllingham

 

SMASH is simply SLG divided by BA. It measures the average number of bases associated to each hit. The ranking is based on the highest peak season SMASH value for each hitter.

 

Laudner is pretty suprising to see on that list, but I suppose he really wasn't a contact hitter, was he? I would have guessed Kirby, Hrbek, Oliva, and Bruno before Laudner... That's neat.

 

Hammer is still the all-time leader for homers at Target Field, yes? Plouffe is right behind him, right?


#50 birdwatcher

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 02:26 PM

Jason Adam slid from being the 9th best prospect to the 16th best in KC. I'm wondering if he's even the 16th best PITCHER in our system. 

 

Where does he slot in?

 

1. Meyer

2. Stewart

3. Berrios

4. Thorpe

5. May

6. Burdi

7. Tonkin

8. Jorge

9. Romero

10. Goncalves

 

And then, lots of guys more comparable to him? Which of these guys would you have given up for him? Gilmartin, Hu, Darnell, Johnson, Olivares, Rosario, Jiminez, Landa, Cedaroth, Rogers, Duffy, Lee, Jones, Melotakis, Eades, Slegers, Wheeler, Reed...

 

Who's his best comp among our prospects?


#51 jokin

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 03:14 PM

Jason Adam slid from being the 9th best prospect to the 16th best in KC. I'm wondering if he's even the 16th best PITCHER in our system. 

 

Where does he slot in?

 

1. Meyer

2. Stewart

3. Berrios

4. Thorpe

5. May

6. Burdi

7. Tonkin

8. Jorge

9. Romero

10. Goncalves

 

And then, lots of guys more comparable to him? Which of these guys would you have given up for him? Gilmartin, Hu, Darnell, Johnson, Olivares, Rosario, Jiminez, Landa, Cedaroth, Rogers, Duffy, Lee, Jones, Melotakis, Eades, Slegers, Wheeler, Reed...

 

Who's his best comp among our prospects?

 

 

Adam just turned 23 a week ago.  Though he's perceived to have taken a step back in 2014, look at what the Royals did for him.  They moved him to AAA as a reliever, and he's had some very good success in the hit-happy PCL.

 

I think the comp here is not that far off from Trevor May. Let's compare Adam's age-22 year in AA this season with May's 22-year old season with the Phillies AA club:

 

Trevor May ERA/FIP/SIERA 4.87/4.88/4.00

Jason Adam ERA/FIP/SIERA 5.03/3.65/3.74 

 

Trevor May WHIP 1.45 K/9 9.1  BB/9 4.7

Jason Adam WHIP 1.39 K/9 8.1 BB/9 2.7

 

Trevor May  BABIP .300 Slash line:  .219/.350/.410/.760

Jason Adam BABIP ..338  Slash line:  .281/.336/.419/.755

 

 

Trevor May repeated three times, at the A level, A+ level and the AA level.  Jason Adams has only repeated AA, and even that involved a promotion to AAA, although in a relief role.  I think if the Twins can continue the process of teaching Adams how to "pitch" to avoid more bats, the guy has demonstrated that he has projectabiliy- solid control, a decent FB between 91 and 95, touching 97 and a good slider.  For Adams to reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter like May also projects, the Twins also have to help him develop a more effective third pitch.

 

As you can tell, I am high on Adam's potential.

Edited by jokin, 12 August 2014 - 04:05 PM.

 

Joyous, fact-based and tireless Twins fan for 40+ years, who unfortunately has been characterized as-

 

"forcing Twins fans to endure more bitter, baseless, and tiresome cheap shots about the Twins FO."


#52 drjim

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 03:20 PM

I'll take May (barely) in that profile, but thanks for providing the statistical comparison. Definitely a worthwhile arm to add to the system and a very solid return for 50 games of Willingham.

Papers...business papers.

#53 Badsmerf

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 04:05 PM

Jokin, Adam and May are nowhere even close to each other. First of all in your comparison May struck out 1 per 9 better and walked almost double the batters.... yet had similar results. That tells me he has better stuff, but control was an issue. Also, May had a k/9 of 12 the previous season. These two are not comparable, May is/was a much better prospect. 

 

That doesn't take away that Adam has a shot to be an MLB pitcher.  Swarzak struck out more guys than he did in the lower minors. However, looking at their age 22 season and Swarzak's next few seasons, they don't look like much. Swarzak really grew after a few seasons with the Twins, so Adam certainly could do that. 

Do or do not. There is no try.

#54 jokin

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 04:55 PM

Jokin, Adam and May are nowhere even close to each other. First of all in your comparison May struck out 1 per 9 better and walked almost double the batters.... yet had similar results. That tells me he has better stuff, but control was an issue. Also, May had a k/9 of 12 the previous season. These two are not comparable, May is/was a much better prospect. 

 

That doesn't take away that Adam has a shot to be an MLB pitcher.  Swarzak struck out more guys than he did in the lower minors. However, looking at their age 22 season and Swarzak's next few seasons, they don't look like much. Swarzak really grew after a few seasons with the Twins, so Adam certainly could do that. 

 

No question that May has better stuff, but as we saw on Saturday, control is always going to be a major issue for him.  I merely demonstrated very similar results for the two pitchers to this point in time.  My point was that Adam is likely not simply to be dismissed as merely the "#16 Twins pitching prospect" in the system.  K rates are an important indicator of success, but shouldn't be considered strictly in a vacuum. Unlike May and Swarzak who have seen progressive declines in K rates in their minor league careers, to the contrary, Adam, as a starter, has increased his K/9 rate for 5 straight years, even as he has continued to climb the minor league levels.  To this point, Adam has both superior K/9 and BB/9 rates to Swarzak's AA total.  Swarzak took a noticeable dropoff in AAA- his K/9 was 5.5 and BB/9 was 2.7. May was 8.6-K/9 and 3.6-BB/9 in AAA this year.  Based on his history of year over year improvements at sucessive levels, Adam has a decent shot to beat or match both the K/BB numbers of May and Swarzak when he gets his shot at Rochester in 2015.  With the results that Adam has gotten to this point in time, with his control already firmly established, it suggests that he has a decent shot to get to the similar ceiling to May with proper development from the Twins staff.  He is going to have to get that third pitch going to keep hitters from sitting on his flattish fastball, missing bats, not lack of control, looks like it's going to be Adam's main focus for improvement.  

 

After checking this a little further, this is what most analysts suggest, ie, that of mid-rotation starter ceiling.  This was a good trade, certainly not like Revere for Worley/May, but not Liriano for Hernandez/Escobar.  This guy has a legitimate shot at a career well above Swarzak mop-up level.

Edited by jokin, 12 August 2014 - 05:02 PM.

 

Joyous, fact-based and tireless Twins fan for 40+ years, who unfortunately has been characterized as-

 

"forcing Twins fans to endure more bitter, baseless, and tiresome cheap shots about the Twins FO."


#55 LaBombo

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 06:25 PM

Laudner is pretty suprising to see on that list, but I suppose he really wasn't a contact hitter, was he? I would have guessed Kirby, Hrbek, Oliva, and Bruno before Laudner... That's neat.

 

Hammer is still the all-time leader for homers at Target Field, yes? Plouffe is right behind him, right?

Yup.Laudner gets a boost relative to the names you mentioned because they get penalized by that stat (which is fun by the way, and a nice addition to the recap of Willingham's Twins career) for every single they hit.

 

When you switch to isolated power, which measures bases per AB, all your names finish ahead of Laudner.His approach at the plate epitomized the "Swing hard in case you hit it" philosphy.

 

It's difficult to imagine a more stark contrast between a hitter like Laudner and his successor, Brian Harper.Laudner hit 77 homers in about 2200 PA's for the Twins, but struck out in nearly 25% of them.Harper hit just 48 home runs in roughly 2700 PA's with the Twins, but struck out in only about 5% of them.


#56 The Greatest Poster Alive

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Posted 12 August 2014 - 06:50 PM

The recent trades are why i wasn't worried when the Twins didn't make a big deadline splash.  Everybody who needed to be moved got through waivers... Ryan is wise to get something for a guy out the door.  Hopefully Willingham helps the Royals make the playoffs for the first time since the 80's.  




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