Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Photo

Article: Will Alex Meyer Pitch in the Majors This Year?

alex meyer
  • Please log in to reply
112 replies to this topic

#41 Steve Lein

Steve Lein

    Senior Member - MiLB Report Contributor

  • Members
  • 772 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:56 AM

As has been demonstrated in a companion thread with statistical information to back it up, the walk concern is vastly overblown for a High K-rate power-pitcher with a high GB% who also produces a high percentage of weakly hit balls in play.

 

Yup, this.So many times this.And should they really be that concerned about a guy who's On-Base Percentage Against is .300?!

 

Also, Baseball America published their "AAA Best Tools" today.

 

Guess who gets recognized for "Best Fastball" AND "Best Breaking Pitch"?

 

Yup, it's Alex Meyer.

  • jokin likes this

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#42 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 8,951 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:59 AM

I don't think anything of the sort has been "demonstrated" that his walk rate is vastly overblown.What has been shown is that in some cases, pitchers can get away with high walk rates, but in general, comparing a guy who hasn't pitched in the big leagues to a hall of famer based on a few statistical similarities and physical build and concluding "see, it's OK, if Randy Johnson can do it, so can Alex Meyer" is a really bad way to manage player development.I'm fine if you want to disagree, but calling it overblown is silly.There's very good reason to be concerned about it, and I have no problems with the Twins if this is their concern.This isn't a situation where they are expecting perfection.

 

As it presently stands, Meyer is walking 4.4 guys/9 IP, and that number has increased with each of his stops.While he's certainly doing a lot of other things well, I think it's very reasonable to be concerned knowing that his jump to the majors will typically see an increase in that walk rate, a drop in the K rate, and likely an increase in his hit/HR rates too.I think he's ready for a trial, but I also think it needs to be at a point where they won't be burning any options on him, which why I think a bullpen debut in September actually makes a ton of sense for Alex Meyer. 

 

 

We disagree about the facts that were presented, which is fine.  To me an extra walk every other game isn't a big worry when you've got a guy striking out more than one batter an inning, and has the rare ability to specifically "get" the strikeout of his choosing when the situation calls for it.  

 

Randy Johnson's minor league walk rates were bad, and they jumped for his first four years in the majors, yet, because he was the type of power pitcher that Meyer also projects to be, he was able to keep his ERA/FIP rates below league average.  Besides this important comp data, the factual circumstances for why Meyer's BB rate increased this season is primarily due to mastering the new change up- an issue that will gradually fade away over time.....can't stress the point enough, when the pitch was working on Sunday, it was devastating).

Edited by jokin, 06 August 2014 - 10:00 AM.


#43 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 8,951 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:00 AM

Then I stand corrected... unfortunately!

(and Antony should know of which he speaks.. what a huge jump going from asst. GM puttering around in the background, to suddenly being the guy in charge)

 

I don't often laugh out loud browsing the threads.  Mission accomplished, Hosken! :)


#44 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 8,951 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:04 AM

Yup, this.So many times this.And should they really be that concerned about a guy who's On-Base Percentage Against is .300?!

 

Also, Baseball America published their "AAA Best Tools" today.

 

Guess who gets recognized for "Best Fastball" AND "Best Breaking Pitch"?

 

Yup, it's Alex Meyer.

 

 

Great get, Steve.  The evidence continues to pile up.  And after watching him on Sunday, Meyer is not too far from winning a third award from BA for "Best Knee-Buckling Change-up". 


#45 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 8,951 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:11 AM

In most cases I'd agree with you but as I see it, the decision-making here isn't guided by performance. It's about taking every step possible -- call it "kid gloves" if you want -- to protect Meyer's arm and ensure he'll be healthy for next year. That supercedes the importance of him getting a few starts against big-league hitters. There have been too many injuries to this organization's top prospects.

 

I'm all in favor of using kid gloves for a potential future ace.  But, assuming he stays on the same routine, how does Meyer more greatly risk injury by pitching his remaining innings with the Twins instead of Rochester?


#46 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 5,753 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:12 AM

You keep saying this, but I've pointed out it's false.  Alex Meyer will not burn an option year in 2014 UNLESS he is sent back down to the minors for 20+ days over the remainder of 2014.  This is all over the web, just google "mlb options 20 days".

 

And as I've said before, I'm fairly certain that only applies with an injury rehab. 


#47 USAFChief

USAFChief

    ɹǝɯoפ

  • Twins Mods
  • 9,258 posts
  • LocationTucson

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:14 AM

In most cases I'd agree with you but as I see it, the decision-making here isn't guided by performance. It's about taking every step possible -- call it "kid gloves" if you want -- to protect Meyer's arm and ensure he'll be healthy for next year. That supercedes the importance of him getting a few starts against big-league hitters. There have been too many injuries to this organization's top prospects.


How does having Meyer pitch in Rochester instead of Minneapolis provide extra protection to his arm?
  • h2oface likes this

Go Twins!


#48 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 8,412 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:14 AM

How is it less hard on his arm to pitch in AAA, than here? If you are worried about injury, just sit him down. That seems like a bad idea.
  • h2oface likes this

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#49 Steve Lein

Steve Lein

    Senior Member - MiLB Report Contributor

  • Members
  • 772 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:15 AM

It's about taking every step possible -- call it "kid gloves" if you want -- to protect Meyer's arm and ensure he'll be healthy for next year. That supercedes the importance of him getting a few starts against big-league hitters. There have been too many injuries to this organization's top prospects.

 

Don't have issue with the idea of "protecting an arm," but this should be a decision that is based on fluidity of his health in the present, not based on what occurred a year ago.I bet Meyer would say he feels fantastic and can do more if you asked him right now.Letting him throw 100+ pitches and go deeper into a game, or hell, pitch for the Twins, isn't going to exponentially increase a repeat injury risk at this point.This notion is absurd.

Edited by Steve Lein, 06 August 2014 - 10:16 AM.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#50 tobi0040

tobi0040

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,191 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:15 AM

In most cases I'd agree with you but as I see it, the decision-making here isn't guided by performance. It's about taking every step possible -- call it "kid gloves" if you want -- to protect Meyer's arm and ensure he'll be healthy for next year. That supercedes the importance of him getting a few starts against big-league hitters. There have been too many injuries to this organization's top prospects.

 

it isn't clear to me how 90 pitches a game over the last month and over the next month at AAA is better for his arm than in the big leagues.I don't think anyone has suggested the Twins go over their innings limit for Meyer, just that those should be up here to further his development.


#51 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,664 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:19 AM

And as I've said before, I'm fairly certain that only applies with an injury rehab. 

And as I've said before, you are mistaken on that.  I updated my post above with an example -- Doug Bernier spent half of the 2013 season in AAA and half in MLB, yet did not use an option year.  This happens regularly with players who are added to the 40-man roster and promoted to MLB simultaneously.

 

And once on the 40-man roster, they can even be optioned to AAA for less than 20 days during the season and not use an option (like Arcia will do this year).


#52 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 5,753 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:24 AM

We disagree about the facts that were presented, which is fine.  To me an extra walk every other game isn't a big worry when you've got a guy striking out more than one batter an inning, and has the rare ability to specifically "get" the strikeout of his choosing when the situation calls for it.  

 

Randy Johnson's minor league walk rates were bad, and they jumped for his first four years in the majors, yet, because he was the type of power pitcher that Meyer also projects to be, he was able to keep his ERA/FIP rates below league average.  Besides this important comp data, the factual circumstances for why Meyer's BB rate increased this season is primarily due to mastering the new change up- an issue that will gradually fade away over time.....can't stress the point enough, when the pitch was working on Sunday, it was devastating).

 

I think the problem with the walks is that it isn't going to show up as an extra walk every other game.At 4.4 BB/9, he's walking a guy every other inning on average, for one... But more importantly, it will show up when his control isn't as sharp, at which point he doesn't make it out of the 3rd inning.As it is, major league hitters are going to lay off those pitches more, which is going to tax the pen and shorten his starts.This is why I think it would be great for him to pitch out of the pen in September. 


#53 tobi0040

tobi0040

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,191 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:25 AM

We disagree about the facts that were presented, which is fine.  To me an extra walk every other game isn't a big worry when you've got a guy striking out more than one batter an inning, and has the rare ability to specifically "get" the strikeout of his choosing when the situation calls for it.  

 

Randy Johnson's minor league walk rates were bad, and they jumped for his first four years in the majors, yet, because he was the type of power pitcher that Meyer also projects to be, he was able to keep his ERA/FIP rates below league average.  Besides this important comp data, the factual circumstances for why Meyer's BB rate increased this season is primarily due to mastering the new change up- an issue that will gradually fade away over time.....can't stress the point enough, when the pitch was working on Sunday, it was devastating).

 

Sorry to pile on.But RJ's numbers at AAA in his last full season were 8.81 K per 9 and 5.72 BB per 9.Both quite a bit worse than Meyer's. His BB per 9 numbers over the first four seasons were much worse than Meyer's are likely to be (4.9 to 6.8 per year).RJ's K numbers were 7.95 year 1, then just a tad over 10 the next 3.

 

Yes, it is a comp to a HOF guy.But Meyer's numbers now are better and I would argue over the next four years his K numbers project to be about the same, with much better BB numbers......and RJ still put up a sub 4.00 ERA because he has excellent stuff, like Meyer.

 

I am not saying that Meyer will have the same career as RJ, but it puts to ease some concerns I would typically have

  • jokin likes this

#54 Badsmerf

Badsmerf

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,773 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:28 AM

I hate this article. Sorry Nick. The Twins can come up with any argument they want. The fact remains, they are purposefully not putting the best players on the field. That, in my opinion, is disrespect to the fans. Meyer's pitch count may be 90 (usually its 100... not a significant difference), that doesn't mean those 90 pitches aren't better used in the MLB. 

 

Pulling the development card or the play it safe card is asinine. The guy is in his mid-20, blowing away AAA hitters at his will and has logged plenty of time in the minors. He's a professional ballplayer, not a 12 year old kid preparing for the little league world series. I've been beyond pissed for 2 months about their decision making on pitchers.

  • Steve Lein, USAFChief, SydneyTwinsFan and 2 others like this
Do or do not. There is no try.

#55 tobi0040

tobi0040

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,191 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:33 AM

The Twins can come up with any argument they want. The fact remains, they are purposefully not putting the best players on the field. That, in my opinion, is disrespect to the fans.

 

Looks like a duck, talks like a duck, walks like a duck......it is a duck,Spot on.


#56 Steve Lein

Steve Lein

    Senior Member - MiLB Report Contributor

  • Members
  • 772 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:34 AM

I hate this article. Sorry Nick. The Twins can come up with any argument they want. The fact remains, they are purposefully not putting the best players on the field. That, in my opinion, is disrespect to the fans. Meyer's pitch count may be 90 (usually its 100... not a significant difference), that doesn't mean those 90 pitches aren't better used in the MLB. 

 

Pulling the development card or the play it safe card is asinine. The guy is in his mid-20, blowing away AAA hitters at his will and has logged plenty of time in the minors. He's a professional ballplayer, not a 12 year old kid preparing for the little league world series. I've been beyond pissed for 2 months about their decision making on pitchers.

 

If I could "like" this more than once, I would.Couldn't say it better myself.

  • h2oface and chuchadoro like this

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#57 jtkoupal

jtkoupal

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 16 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:42 AM

I don't mind them keeping those two in AAA in order to prolong starting their service clocks. However, I think one of them, probably May, should get the call in September. Get his feet wet in games that don't really matter for us. If he blows up in a start, it's not a big deal. However, I really don't love the idea of more pitching prospects learning under Gardy and possibly Andy. I think a culture change is needed in the dugout that is more conducive to the development of young players, a skill that I think Gardy has lost over the years with times changing.

#58 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 8,412 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:44 AM

They are already locked into the Twins past age 30.....this isn't about service time. 

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#59 Oxtung

Oxtung

    I don't skinny dip. I chunky dunk.

  • Members
  • 1,552 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:50 AM

I guess I don't understand why "taxing" the bullpen is a: an issue. b: a certainty. Plenty of guys in AAA can be brought up to man the bullpen if that is really an issue, which doesn't even seem like it is certain to happen.

 

They seem to call up hitters willy nilly (Polanco), but seem terrified to bring up pitchers. It is, as a fan, maddening. 

 

The 40 man issue is a red herring. He needs to be added at the end of the year anyway. The only tiny risk is that he gets hurt, and needs to be on the MLB IR, and not the MiLB IR. Other than that, it isn't an actual issue anymore.

 

 

He's not on the 40, but there's no difference now for him to be placed there compared to putting him on in the fall to protect him from Rule V.He'll still have three years of options starting in 2015.If it's not Correia getting DFA'd to make room for Meyer, I think it's Florimon.

  He needs to get MLB starts, though, because he'll be in rotation next year.

 

 

Meyer's future is a known regardless of how the next 2 months go.He will be added to the 40 man and then be given a chance to compete for a rotation spot, if not next spring, next year at some point. That is going to happen whether he gets 50 innings or zero innings in the majors this year.On the other hand there is a long list of players that need to be evaluated for 40 man spots this off season or lose them.So by adding Meyer to the 40 man to pitch in a role he has never been in his entire life, that will make absolutely no difference to his future, instead of a player that has legitimate questions about next season is not "nothing" or a "red herring".There are very real reasons not to add him to the 40 man until after the season.


#60 Oxtung

Oxtung

    I don't skinny dip. I chunky dunk.

  • Members
  • 1,552 posts

Posted 06 August 2014 - 10:51 AM

We disagree about the facts that were presented, which is fine.  To me an extra walk every other game isn't a big worry when you've got a guy striking out more than one batter an inning, and has the rare ability to specifically "get" the strikeout of his choosing when the situation calls for it.  

 

Randy Johnson's minor league walk rates were bad, and they jumped for his first four years in the majors, yet, because he was the type of power pitcher that Meyer also projects to be, he was able to keep his ERA/FIP rates below league average.  Besides this important comp data, the factual circumstances for why Meyer's BB rate increased this season is primarily due to mastering the new change up- an issue that will gradually fade away over time.....can't stress the point enough, when the pitch was working on Sunday, it was devastating).

 

Where is the factual evidence that the walks are because of this new change up?I must have missed that can you point me in the right direction?




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: alex meyer