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Article: Will Alex Meyer Pitch in the Majors This Year?

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#21 Steve Lein

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 08:25 AM

If they don't bring up Meyer at all, I will be PISSED.Maybe even to the point of saying "Eff my season tickets, because this team doesn't give a crap about it's fans."

 

It's that simple for me.They aren't 'young' prospects any more, take off the kid gloves. 

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#22 tobi0040

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 08:36 AM

If they don't bring up Meyer at all, I will be PISSED.Maybe even to the point of saying "Eff my season tickets, because this team doesn't give a crap about it's fans."

 

It's that simple for me.They aren't 'young' prospects any more, take off the kid gloves. 

 

I am already pissed because this reeks of a financial decision over a development decision.He can pitch 5-6 IP, 1-2 ER, and 6-9 k's at AAA until the cows come home.

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#23 spycake

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 08:36 AM

They aren't 'young' prospects any more, take off the kid gloves. 

I actually don't mind the kid gloves, to some degree.  Shut them down when there's a problem, limit their pitch counts and innings when they come back, sure.

 

But missing two months of one season shouldn't automatically preclude an MLB trial late the following season, which seems to be the case here.

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#24 Steve Lein

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 08:52 AM

I mean, what really do they need to show the Twins here?

 

On International League leaderboards, May and Meyer are top 10 in ERA (#5 and #6 respectively), near the top in WHIP (#4 and #11), Meyer leads the league in overall K's and K/9, while May is #4 in K/9. They're even #2 (May) and #7 (Meyer) in FIP, and #2 (Meyer) and #3 (May) in Batting Average Against.

 

The standards the Twins have for calling them up with how atrocious their starters in MLB have been is nothing short of baffling. 

 

I get the May injury pushing him back, but that concern is over. 

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#25 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 08:58 AM

I don't know they are blowing it. We just don't know the strategy. I'm hoping there is a strategy, and they are following it. I just am struggling to understand what that strategy is right now.

 

Indeed. I think Meyer should be up here given the information I have available to me.

 

I'm hoping the Twins have more information and that is the reason we haven't seen Meyer. If he hasn't been promoted out of sheer stubbornness, well...

 

nathan-fillion-firefly-gif.gif

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#26 Seth Stohs

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:05 AM

Which goes almost completely against the "protect his shoulder" reasoning that Nick outlined.  By the time the Rochester season is complete, Meyer will be at or near his season innings limit.  And it's at that point you think it would be a "great" idea to push him for more innings, at more effort (due to higher level of competition), in a different role than his entire professional career to date?

 

Why not do it now (or late June, like we did for Gibson, or late July, like many here assured would happen)?  Because we promised a rotation spot to Kevin Correia?  Because we don't want to do a 6-man rotation?  Because the next 30 MLB IP are urgently critical to our evaluation of Pino?

 

I'm making an assumption based on my projected rotation the next two weeks (in another thread) that May and Milone will be up in the next week, so Pino isn't the issue. I can see Correia being DFAd at the end of August if they can't get anyone to take him too.


#27 jokin

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:16 AM

There was an article/thread back in April on this same topic. Predicting when Meyer will make his debut. Unfortunately the comments are lost. I doubt anyone would have predicted that if Meyer pitched well all year, stayed healthy, and did all the right things, that he would make his debut... not this year at all.

 

 

I remember the thread well. Despite the fact that Meyer was dominant throughout Spring Training and into early May at the time in question- ( it was the rerun of Gibson's early season in 2013, only a whole lot better)-..... In the thread I (sadly) predicted that the Twins would most likely not call Meyer up until May 2015- not because I have a crystal ball- but because they had just purchased so many alternative options in the offseason (Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Johnson, Pino), it was pretty obvious that Meyer's 2013 shoulder fragility and the financial considerations for starting Meyer's clock had precluded him from their 2014 plans.  

 

(Rob Antony's comments at the time clinched it for me...he mentioned what a huge hurdle it was going to be for Meyer- despite coming off of his consecutive double-digit strikeout games on April 23 and 28-  between the low-pressure AAA environment and MLB).

Edited by jokin, 06 August 2014 - 09:37 AM.

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#28 tobi0040

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:16 AM

Indeed. I think Meyer should be up here given the information I have available to me.

 

I'm hoping the Twins have more information and that is the reason we haven't seen Meyer. If he hasn't been promoted out of sheer stubbornness, well...

 

attachicon.gifnathan-fillion-firefly-gif.gif

 

Outside of a social anxiety disorder, triggered by large stadiums....what type of information could the Twins have that is not financial?

 

I am really struggling to even speculate what they could be. The "he is only five starts from being done" thing doesn't make any sense to me.He is only five starts away because they have delayed him this far and even if he is only five away, wouldn't value exist in having him put on the jersey, walk to the mound and get those 5 starts up here?


#29 jokin

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:21 AM

My 2 cents FWIW...

 

Meyer will be a September callup. He has to be added to the 40 this offseason, and the Twins have shown a history to put people in his status on the 40 the September prior.He's on a pitch count/limit, so I don't see the point in bringing him up earlier to start games a coupe games and then get shut down, but I do think he'll work out of the pen in Sept, and maybe be given a spot start as the rosters will be expanded.  

 

That said, Meyer's walk rate is pretty high this year.He needs to bring that down a bit as it's not going to improve at the ML level where hitters tend to be better at not chasing pitches out of the zone.As such, I can understand the Twins concern on this issue.

 

 

As has been demonstrated in a companion thread with statistical information to back it up, the walk concern is vastly overblown for a High K-rate power-pitcher with a high GB% who also produces a high percentage of weakly hit balls in play.

 

As I stated after seeing him pitch in person, he's certainly not a finished product, but if the Twins are acting under the premise on waiting for something close to perfection in the control department, it's going to be a long time coming.  Randy Johnson had 4 straight years with the Mariners until he was nearly 30 with horrendous BB/9 rates, before it finally clicked for him.  Meyer has had much better minor league BB/9 rates than Johnson, so he's actually well ahead of the Big Unit in that regard. 

Edited by jokin, 06 August 2014 - 04:55 PM.

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#30 tobi0040

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:23 AM

As has been demonstrated in a companion thread with statistical information to back it up, the walk concern is vastly overblown for a High K-rate power-pitcher with a high GB% who also produces a high percentage of weakly hit balls in play. 

 

In addition to a very low HR rate. If he had 3.5 BB per 9 and 8 H per 9 instead of 4.5 BB per 9 and 7 H per 9....somehow he would be ready.Note that the BB is one base and the additional hit maybe 2, 3, or 4.

 

The point is that with the typical Twins pitcher, walk rates are very important. Alex Meyer is not the typical Twins pitcher.


#31 Brandon

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:26 AM

The Twins could call up Meyer after the AAA season to get a couple of starts and the Twins could limit him to 4 or 5 innings at most per start so he can get 12 -15 innings of experience up here and have Corriea come in and follow up after him to pitch 2 to 4 innings if he is still on the roster or have May follow him and go 4 innings. too so they both get 4 innings per appearance at the end of the season.That way they get the experience and keep the pitch count low. 


#32 JB_Iowa

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:33 AM

The Twins could call up Meyer after the AAA season to get a couple of starts and the Twins could limit him to 4 or 5 innings at most per start so he can get 12 -15 innings of experience up here and have Corriea come in and follow up after him to pitch 2 to 4 innings if he is still on the roster or have May follow him and go 4 innings. too so they both get 4 innings per appearance at the end of the season.That way they get the experience and keep the pitch count low. 

 

 

is it really the same, though?

 

There seems to be something significantly different about 2nd and 3rd times through the line-up from the 1st.  Unless you're thinking of him as a reliever, it seems to me that he really wouldn't get "the experience" from short starts.


#33 USAFChief

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:44 AM

The Twins could call up Meyer after the AAA season to get a couple of starts and the Twins could limit him to 4 or 5 innings at most per start so he can get 12 -15 innings of experience up here and have Corriea come in and follow up after him to pitch 2 to 4 innings if he is still on the roster or have May follow him and go 4 innings. too so they both get 4 innings per appearance at the end of the season.That way they get the experience and keep the pitch count low.


As has been pointed out, if Meyer finishes the AAA season, he'll be at or near the presumed 150 IP limit.

Go Twins!


#34 Dantes929

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:45 AM

I'm all for protecting arms if protecting arms actually worked. Nothing I have read supports the notion that 90 pitch games or 150 inning limits has any effect whatsoever. Shut Meyer down and he is just as likely to need surgery after his 3rd spring training start next year as he is if they let him pitch to 200 innings this year. Where's the science that "protecting" arms works?   Makes as much sense to shut Nolasco down as it does Meyer.  Meyer should have at least 2 starts with the Twins already.  I supported the Pino promotion and while he has been adequate he should not be guaranteed starts at this point. I didn't care for the Johnson promotion but really didn't like the Darnell promotion.  He started out hot this season but was trending down. 2 of Meyer, May and Milone and preferably all 3 should be in rotation in the next 10 days.


#35 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:45 AM

As has been demonstrated in a companion thread with statistical information to back it up, the walk concern is vastly overblown for a High K-rate power-pitcher with a high GB% who also produces a high percentage of weakly hit balls in play.

 

As I stated after seeing him pitch in person, he's certainly not a finished product, but if the Twins are acting under the preimise on waiting for something close to perfection in the control department, it's going to be a long time coming.  Randy Johnson had 4 straight years with the Mariners until he was nearly 30 with horrendous BB/9 rates, before it finally clicked for him.  Meyer has had much better minor league BB/9 rates than Johnson, so he's actually well ahead of the Big Unit in that regard. 

 

I don't think anything of the sort has been "demonstrated" that his walk rate is vastly overblown.What has been shown is that in some cases, pitchers can get away with high walk rates, but in general, comparing a guy who hasn't pitched in the big leagues to a hall of famer based on a few statistical similarities and physical build and concluding "see, it's OK, if Randy Johnson can do it, so can Alex Meyer" is a really bad way to manage player development.I'm fine if you want to disagree, but calling it overblown is silly.There's very good reason to be concerned about it, and I have no problems with the Twins if this is their concern.This isn't a situation where they are expecting perfection.

 

As it presently stands, Meyer is walking 4.4 guys/9 IP, and that number has increased with each of his stops.While he's certainly doing a lot of other things well, I think it's very reasonable to be concerned knowing that his jump to the majors will typically see an increase in that walk rate, a drop in the K rate, and likely an increase in his hit/HR rates too.I think he's ready for a trial, but I also think it needs to be at a point where they won't be burning any options on him, which why I think a bullpen debut in September actually makes a ton of sense for Alex Meyer. 


#36 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:49 AM

I remember the thread well. Despite the fact that Meyer was dominant throughout Spring Training and into early May at the time in question- ( it was the rerun of Gibson's early season in 2013, only a whole lot better)-..... In the thread I (sadly) predicted that the Twins would most likely not call Meyer up until May 2015- not because I have a crystal ball- but because they had just purchased so many alternative options in the offseason (Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Johnson, Pino), it was pretty obvious that Meyer's 2013 shoulder fragility and the financial considerations for starting Meyer's clock had precluded him from their 2014 plans.  
 
(Rob Antony's comments at the time clinched it for me...he mentioned what a huge hurdle it was going to be for Meyer- despite coming off of his consecutive double-digit strikeout games on April 23 and 28-  between the low-pressure AAA environment and MLB).

Then I stand corrected... unfortunately!

(and Antony should know of which he speaks.. what a huge jump going from asst. GM puttering around in the background, to suddenly being the guy in charge)
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#37 spycake

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:49 AM

I'm making an assumption based on my projected rotation the next two weeks (in another thread) that May and Milone will be up in the next week, so Pino isn't the issue. I can see Correia being DFAd at the end of August if they can't get anyone to take him too.

But why would you wait on Meyer until he is basically AT his season innings limit to give him his highest-stress innings thus far in his career?  That seems rather reckless for an arm you are protecting.  And for a 3.5 week courtesy to Correia?  Why not a 6-man rotation in the meantime, then?  

 

Also, when was the last time the Twins DFA'd a player like Correia?  Juan Rincon?  Kubel's recent tenure here wasn't very long and his performance was worse (and he was arguably still limited by injuries).  Marquis' Twins tenure was short and his performance disastrous, same for Bret Boone back in the day.  Nick Blackburn was sent to the minors and hurt, but even he finished out his contract.

 

I guess part of this is that the Twins had good teams recently and didn't have too many of these guys, but Lew Ford, Rondell White, Joe Mays, Rick Reed, etc. were generally allowed to play out the string as health allowed.

 

A healthy veteran who has been with the team almost two seasons and simply has a below-average but not disastrous recent performance record?  If no one else wants him, I think he plays out the string here.

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#38 tobi0040

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:53 AM

I don't think anything of the sort has been "demonstrated" that his walk rate is vastly overblown.What has been shown is that in some cases, pitchers can get away with high walk rates, but in general, comparing a guy who hasn't pitched in the big leagues to a hall of famer based on a few statistical similarities and physical build and concluding "see, it's OK, if Randy Johnson can do it, so can Alex Meyer" is a really bad way to manage player development.I'm fine if you want to disagree, but calling it overblown is silly.There's very good reason to be concerned about it, and I have no problems with the Twins if this is their concern.This isn't a situation where they are expecting perfection.

 

As it presently stands, Meyer is walking 4.4 guys/9 IP, and that number has increased with each of his stops.While he's certainly doing a lot of other things well, I think it's very reasonable to be concerned knowing that his jump to the majors will typically see an increase in that walk rate, a drop in the K rate, and likely an increase in his hit/HR rates too.I think he's ready for a trial, but I also think it needs to be at a point where they won't be burning any options on him, which why I think a bullpen debut in September actually makes a ton of sense for Alex Meyer. 

 

Logic would say that he will allow more hits, HR's, etc. against MLB hitters.Any pitcher would. I believe all of these metrics in the big leauges will trump every pitcher we have brougt up since Liriano in 2006.So a career 3.7 BB per 9 in the minors and the 4.4 this year is not enough to hold him back.

 

Heck, I would argue that if we were concerned about the BB rate, bringing him up for 5 starts and proving to him that he needs to get his BB's under control is the best thing for his development.

Edited by tobi0040, 06 August 2014 - 09:55 AM.


#39 Nick Nelson

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:54 AM

It's that simple for me.They aren't 'young' prospects any more, take off the kid gloves. 

 

In most cases I'd agree with you but as I see it, the decision-making here isn't guided by performance. It's about taking every step possible -- call it "kid gloves" if you want -- to protect Meyer's arm and ensure he'll be healthy for next year. That supercedes the importance of him getting a few starts against big-league hitters. There have been too many injuries to this organization's top prospects.

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#40 spycake

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:55 AM

 I think he's ready for a trial, but I also think it needs to be at a point where they won't be burning any options on him, which why I think a bullpen debut in September actually makes a ton of sense for Alex Meyer. 

You keep saying this, but I've pointed out it's false.  Alex Meyer will not burn an option year in 2014 UNLESS he is sent back down to the minors for 20+ days over the remainder of 2014.  This is all over the web, just google "mlb options 20 days".

 

EDIT TO ADD: some sites aren't clear.  An option year is used only if a player spends 20 days in the minors "on optional assignment".  A player not on the 40-man (Meyer) is not on optional assignment while he's in the minors.  Oswaldo Arcia's rehab stint earlier this year was not an optional assignment either.  Those days do not count for the purposes of calculating options.

 

For example, Doug Bernier was added to the 40-man roster and promoted to MLB midseason 2013, and spent the rest of the year in MLB.  He did not use an option year, despite spending the first half of the season in AAA -- because he wasn't on optional assignment at that time, those days didn't count toward his 20.

Edited by spycake, 06 August 2014 - 10:13 AM.

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