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Glen Perkins likes math

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#1 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 12:30 PM

It's just a shame that most of his teammates don't share his enthusiasm for the subject. This is a pretty decent primer on some of the more popular advanced metrics and how Perkins uses them to his advantage.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/n...4&vkey=news_min


#2 Craig Arko

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 12:44 PM

Smart Minnesota kid. :)
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Embrace the null hypothesis.

#3 drjim

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 12:54 PM

At a fundamental level, why does a player need to know this information? I understand why it is important to analyze for future performance/extensions/trades/etc, but I don't see what difference it makes when you are standing on the mound.

 

The main possible use would be if a guy was underperforming his peripherals and it could be cited to boost his confidence but I suspect this is not what you have in mind when posting this.

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#4 JB_Iowa

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 12:54 PM

While I'm impressed with Perkins, I'm also impressed that Bollinger wrote this article.

 

And while others on the team may not take the stats as much to heart as Perkins, it's encouraging that some of his teammates look to him for explanations.

 

I can only hope that Jack Goin is force feeding some of this to the coaching staff.

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#5 Craig Arko

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 01:06 PM

At a fundamental level, why does a player need to know this information? I understand why it is important to analyze for future performance/extensions/trades/etc, but I don't see what difference it makes when you are standing on the mound.
 
The main possible use would be if a guy was underperforming his peripherals and it could be cited to boost his confidence but I suspect this is not what you have in mind when posting this.


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Embrace the null hypothesis.

#6 drjim

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 01:31 PM

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."
- Sun Tzu

 

Doesn't really answer the question. I fully expect Twins starters to undergo full preparation with a scouting report and plan of attack for every hitter every game.

 

I would hope that the scouting report includes a detailed breakdown of the results each hitter has against each type of pitch in all zones and counts. But I still don't see what value knowing the numbers cited in the article have for a pitcher as he prepares to pitch.

Papers...business papers.

#7 old nurse

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 01:41 PM

Doesn't really answer the question. I fully expect Twins starters to undergo full preparation with a scouting report and plan of attack for every hitter every game.

 

I would hope that the scouting report includes a detailed breakdown of the results each hitter has against each type of pitch in all zones and counts. But I still don't see what value knowing the numbers cited in the article have for a pitcher as he prepares to pitch.

It is not for preparation to pitch, it is daily assessment of how he is pitching to stay on top of performance


#8 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 01:48 PM

Process control, like any other effort. He is doing statistical process control to understand the outcomes he is producing, to understand if he needs to change what/how he is doing it. Every successful business does this......

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#9 spycake

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 01:55 PM

At a fundamental level, why does a player need to know this information? I understand why it is important to analyze for future performance/extensions/trades/etc, but I don't see what difference it makes when you are standing on the mound.

As others probably said better, I don't think Perkins uses most of these stats on the mound.  Reviewing PitchFX results is referenced in the article too, and I imagine that has more in-game practicality.


#10 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 02:01 PM

I can only hope that Jack Goin is force feeding some of this to the coaching staff.

Or better yet, directly to the players themselves. :)
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#11 spycake

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 02:02 PM

It's just a shame that most of his teammates don't share his enthusiasm for the subject. This is a pretty decent primer on some of the more popular advanced metrics and how Perkins uses them to his advantage.

Emphasis mine -- I think this is why drjim was confused, thinking Perkins was employing these on the mound.  Most of the article deals with results like FIP, BABIP, LD%, etc.  Doesn't really give Perk an advantage, just some context when reviewing his past performance.  Correia could have equal awareness of these stats and still be incapable of pitching any better.

 

The PitchFX stuff, which is mentioned but not detailed in the article, is much more important, of course.  But I would hope reviewing PitchFX and applying lessons learned from it would be standard operating procedure at the big league level (if not minor league level too, in preparation for doing it at the big league level).  Is that's not the case here, then shame on the Twins.


#12 spycake

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 02:07 PM

I wonder if the Twins have their own means of searching, reviewing, dissecting Pitch FX and related data?  Perkins really shouldn't have to go to brooksbaseball.net after each appearance.  And if that's the only way to get that data in the Twins clubhouse, I would imagine that Gardy and Rick Anderson and most of the other players don't see it (which could be what Brock is alluding to here).

 

Now that I think of it, working with large data sets was a primary requirement for the recent front office job posting, so maybe that is finally in the works.  If that's the case, they've got to be behind the curve on this, though, and I'm not sure how much hiring a Visual Studio proficient programmer is going to help them...


#13 drjim

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 02:17 PM

Emphasis mine -- I think this is why drjim was confused, thinking Perkins was employing these on the mound.  Most of the article deals with results like FIP, BABIP, LD%, etc.  Doesn't really give Perk an advantage, just some context when reviewing his past performance.  Correia could have equal awareness of these stats and still be incapable of pitching any better.

 

The PitchFX stuff, which is mentioned but not detailed in the article, is much more important, of course.  But I would hope reviewing PitchFX and applying lessons learned from it would be standard operating procedure at the big league level (if not minor league level too, in preparation for doing it at the big league level).  Is that's not the case here, then shame on the Twins.

 

I'm not confused as much as curious on how applicable deep knowledge of stats are to players and their performance. And to be clear I am not against these stats in any way, they are really good to know for evaluation. I do think the overall knowledge of stats for the athletes specifically don't do much other than make tangible what is probably pretty intuitive for an athlete at this level. Though I suppose for more reflective types (like Perkins) it does provide positive reinforcement. I also think there can be value for confidence reasons if a specific player is not achieving results in traditional stats even if they feel they are pitching well (i.e. they are underperforming the underlying metrics).

 

I see pitch f/x as more a scouting tool than a statistical tool (perhaps that is unfair) that should be used by coaches/front office to improve performance and produce scouting reports on opponents to develop game plans. Perhaps I am splitting hairs.

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#14 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 02:20 PM

do you all not work in companies with goals, objectives, and process control to understand how you are doing as a company (and as an individual contributing to the company)? Huh.

 

Also, it is odd, as someone said, that Perkins has to go to Fangraphs, and not "super secret Twins site" to get data......

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#15 drjim

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 02:20 PM

Process control, like any other effort. He is doing statistical process control to understand the outcomes he is producing, to understand if he needs to change what/how he is doing it. Every successful business does this......

 

This makes sense, but I still see it more under the role of coaching or front office.

 

I asked my question in the context of the comment that "it's a shame his teammates don't show the same enthusiasm". I'm not certain it is that critical for a player to concern themselves with this. I'm skeptical it has much to do with Perkins being a better pitcher, I more credit his 95 fastball and filthy slider.

Papers...business papers.

#16 drjim

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 02:24 PM

do you all not work in companies with goals, objectives, and process control to understand how you are doing as a company (and as an individual contributing to the company)? Huh.

 

Also, it is odd, as someone said, that Perkins has to go to Fangraphs, and not "super secret Twins site" to get data......

 

See my previous response. I am a little concerned that it is not more in house, makes me a little concerned about the actual scouting reports that are prepared for upcoming opponents.

 

In the first part - the goal is get outs and not allow runs, and the process is by limited walks and home runs, while maximizing ks and ground balls (to an extent). Again, I think it makes tangible what is intuitive, so it is definitely interesting and important for analyzing players for contracts, roster spots, etc., but I'm still curious what it actually means for specific players.

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#17 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 02:27 PM

Oh, talent is a much bigger input to success than process control. I bet I could do SPC better than perkins (or about the same), but I have no chance to pitch.

 

Having been in communications and organizational change management and strategic management at various times, it is clear from my experience that employees benefit from having this kind of knowledge. We repeatedly find that letting employees know how their success is judged, how we measured their process performance, how the overall company's success was measured, greatly increased the quality, speed, and (decreased) the cost of outcomes produced.

 

For a baseball player, they have often looked at RBI or BA to judge how they were doing (in the old days, and still today). Pitchers (just ask jack morris) looked at wins. 

 

Perkins, he's looking at other outcome measures.

 

But, your overall point remains. Talent>process.

 

But, as Tony Gwynn reminded us, process is very important also.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#18 tobi0040

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 02:27 PM

Can Gardy throw 97 and close out games?I am hoping for a swap

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#19 spycake

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 02:35 PM

I'm not confused as much as curious on how applicable deep knowledge of stats are to players and their performance. And to be clear I am not against these stats in any way, they are really good to know for evaluation. I do think the overall knowledge of stats for the athletes specifically don't do much other than make tangible what is probably pretty intuitive for an athlete at this level. Though I suppose for more reflective types (like Perkins) it does provide positive reinforcement. I also think there can be value for confidence reasons if a specific player is not achieving results in traditional stats even if they feel they are pitching well (i.e. they are underperforming the underlying metrics).

Obviously these kind of stats don't matter much for an athlete's work within the actual competition.  And I don't think anyone here is saying that they do.

 

I think they appreciate that, when reviewing his own performances, Perkins uses stats that best reflect his actual contribution.  Dude's not hung up on saves or ERA (or pitcher wins for starters, or AVG/RBI for hitters), and is probably less likely to "rest on his laurels" by meeting a mostly meaningless benchmark.  (Although it's probably easiest to ignore "traditional" stats as a relief pitcher -- heck, if I played the game, I'd probably like to boost my BA from .299 to .300 on the last day of the season, or get my 100th RBI rather than take a walk, or gun for my 20th win even if I was supposed to rest for the playoffs or something. The influence of the backs of baseball cards has been strong!)

 

And, of course, prepping and game-planning with the aid of Pitch F/X should be mandatory, and it's good to hear someone on the Twins uses it.

Edited by spycake, 04 August 2014 - 02:36 PM.


#20 tobi0040

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 02:38 PM

Oh, talent is a much bigger input to success than process control. I bet I could do SPC better than perkins (or about the same), but I have no chance to pitch.

 

Having been in communications and organizational change management and strategic management at various times, it is clear from my experience that employees benefit from having this kind of knowledge. We repeatedly find that letting employees know how their success is judged, how we measured their process performance, how the overall company's success was measured, greatly increased the quality, speed, and (decreased) the cost of outcomes produced.

 

For a baseball player, they have often looked at RBI or BA to judge how they were doing (in the old days, and still today). Pitchers (just ask jack morris) looked at wins. 

 

Perkins, he's looking at other outcome measures.

 

But, your overall point remains. Talent>process.

 

But, as Tony Gwynn reminded us, process is very important also.

 

Peyton Manning and Ted Williams also come to mind.