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Discussion point for the future in LF

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#21 mike wants wins

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 07:26 AM

On what planet is Cuddeyer or Hunter fielding, let alone hitting 20 HRs?

 

Of course a hitter putting up numbers in LF or SS is more valuable at SS. The question is, if you think Polanco is your SS, and you have Santana and no LF anywhere near the majors........are you really better getting a crappy old player for a year or two, or are you better trying Santana in LF?

 

IF Buxton puts up numbers like many think, those numbers work in LF/RF/DH even........so, if he was your LF, and Santana your CF, you'd all be "happy" with Santana's numbers.

 

Now, let's pretend you think Buxton is a better OF, so you move him to CF, and Santana to LF.....are you now unhappy with their offense, even though the defense is better?

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What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#22 spycake

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 07:30 AM

No reason to bring up .850 OPS yet.  Heck, no reason to really bring up Santana's OPS of .793 from 2 games ago.

 

A .717 OPS is average right now in the AL.  An average overall player in LF is still worth about 2 WAR.  With a few added runs on the bases, Santana could be a 2.5 WAR guy in LF with just average offense/defense.  An extended spike to .760 OPS (110 OPS+) like Dozier's 2014, or some improvement on defense, and he should clear 3 WAR easy, even in LF.

 

Of course, that same average defense/offense would make him a 3.5 WAR shortstop, with any kind of extra offense or defense pushing him up around 4.5 and borderline all-star territory.  By comparison, Escobar might only be a 2-2.5 WAR shortstop in this, what might be his "peak", year.


#23 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 07:34 AM

I'm not a fan of the "if so and so does this, then we can be happy with this" type argument.I'm a fan of fielding the best team 1-9, and given the present state of the system, that's going to mean aquiring a LF as the next wave gets established (not as concerned about it until then). 

 

If Polanco is the SS of the future (and that I think is NOT a safe assumption at this point), then I think Santana in LF only works if by chance he keeps up this .850 OPS thing as that plays in the corner and the above average defense is even better.While I think he's earned a shot to start (at SS in 2015), I'm very skeptical that he can maintain those numbers and I think a .750-.800 range is a more resonable expectation.At that range, I think Santana is far more valuable in a trade if/when Polanco is ready as he'd net a better LF then what he would be. 

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#24 mike wants wins

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 07:45 AM

check it out......only 8 qualified LF have an OPS over .800.....I think you are all stuck in the recent past of offense....

 

http://www.fangraphs...ers=0&sort=10,d

 

I have no idea what Santana can or cannot do. But I doubt anyone will trade for him as a SS, if the Twins play him in the OF for the next year......or if they do, it won't be at the value you all expect.

 

I would hope that if they are playing him in the OF, they view him NOT as their next SS. If they do view him as their next SS, well.....that would be an indictment of their current use of him.

 

So, are you all assuming they are bad at their job, and are playing him out of position? Or, do you think maybe they view him as Zobrist, and are trying to get him some time in the OF? Or, do you think they maybe think he's a better OF than SS?

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What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#25 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 08:10 AM

I have no idea what Santana can or cannot do. But I doubt anyone will trade for him as a SS, if the Twins play him in the OF for the next year......or if they do, it won't be at the value you all expect.

 

Maybe a team won't trade for him as a SS... but it's possible they'll trade for him as a CF if he continues to play there.

 

And given Ryan's recent hauls from the centerfield position (!!!!!!!!!), I'd put good money on Santana bringing back something of value, maybe a legitimate corner outfield bat.


#26 mike wants wins

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 08:12 AM

That's true, Brock.....which is another reason I think he is in the OF........they like his value in CF more than at SS. Both for them, or for another team.

 

As for "legitimate" corner outfield bat, I think people have unrealistic expectations of LF these days.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#27 Willihammer

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 08:31 AM

So, are you all assuming they are bad at their job, and are playing him out of position? Or, do you think maybe they view him as Zobrist, and are trying to get him some time in the OF? Or, do you think they maybe think he's a better OF than SS?

I think the Twins hope Polanco is the future SS, but want to give Escobar every opportunity to stick there for the next 1-2 years (if not permanently), because they like his glove more than Santana's or Nunez's.

I think they believe Santana is a defensive liability and would rather he work on those issues in the minor leagues if not for the fiasco in center field this year. And I think Gardy probably lobbied to keep Santana around (even after the Fuld pickup) because he is in love with his skillset - 1. fast, 2, switch hitter, 3. decent bunter. I think the Twins FO is ok because Santana was/is good enough to stop the bleeding in CF and maybe they started to see potential for a Bonifacio/super-utility type player down the line.
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#28 chopper0080

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 08:33 AM

That's true, Brock.....which is another reason I think he is in the OF........they like his value in CF more than at SS. Both for them, or for another team.

 

As for "legitimate" corner outfield bat, I think people have unrealistic expectations of LF these days.

Agreed.Hitting is down folks, in terms of both power and average.If I can get another athletic OF with gap power and average in Target field, I take it to the bank everyday.Santana in LF or CF really doesn't matter if you believe Arcia and Buxton will both have 20+ HR potential.Also, let's not count on Buxton making the jump next year.Personally, I would keep Santana in CF or LF until Buxton is up and then figure it out.Santana, Buxton and Arcia isn't terrible in terms of athleticism, power and average.Hicks as a 4th makes it even better and allows you to deal a player if you need to.


#29 Brandon

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 08:44 AM

Maybe a team won't trade for him as a SS... but it's possible they'll trade for him as a CF if he continues to play there.

 

And given Ryan's recent hauls from the centerfield position (!!!!!!!!!), I'd put good money on Santana bringing back something of value, maybe a legitimate corner outfield bat.

 

Ryan only trades CFers for starting pitchers whose last name starts with M ....May, Meyer, Millone

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#30 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 08:59 AM

As for "legitimate" corner outfield bat, I think people have unrealistic expectations of LF these days.

 

I consider a legitimate corner OF bat to be a guy in the .775-.825 OPS range.

 

And I'm still skeptical that Santana can maintain that pace going forward. If he can, great. If he can't, he needs to stick at an up-the-middle position to reach max value.


#31 alarp33

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 10:18 AM

Brock, I usually agree with you.

 

However, maybe part of a young ballplayer's progress is to become better, no matter the level. 

 

He doesn't profile as a corner guy per se, but given his relatively tender age, he is kicking ass right now.

 

Are you familiar with BABIP?  Santana's is currently .401.  

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#32 Winston Smith

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 10:33 AM

Some free agents that are at least mediocre and play semi decent outfield in Colby Rasmus and Nick Markakis.

 

Yasmani Tomas is a Cuban free agent that would only cost money, only money that made me laugh.

 

Hunter could be alright for a final year back home. He's likely going to hit 20 hr this year. He'd bea big upgrade over what we've been getting from Willy.

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#33 mike wants wins

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 10:39 AM

Actually, Josh and Torii are pretty much the same player right now, from what I can tell on Fangraphs. I don't get why that seems like a good idea in LF anymore

 

*Torii actually has a negative WAR, and Josh a positive one. I'd guess, guess, that is due to Josh not having enough fielding opportunities for him to accumulate enough bad defense yet.....

 

Though, in looking at the comparison chart, Josh has been equal to or better than Torii on offense nearly every year, except the year he missed due to injury.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#34 ericchri

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 01:27 PM

I consider a legitimate corner OF bat to be a guy in the .775-.825 OPS range.

 

And I'm still skeptical that Santana can maintain that pace going forward. If he can, great. If he can't, he needs to stick at an up-the-middle position to reach max value.

I'm nowhere near the guy who knows how to try and find this information online, but I'd be willing to wager that a good chunk of major league corner outfielders don't meet that criteria anymore.Doesn't mean you shouldn't hope for it, but you may not find it very easily.5 years ago, yeah, today, not so much.

Edited by ericchri, 05 August 2014 - 01:28 PM.


#35 spycake

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 01:48 PM

I'm nowhere near the guy who knows how to try and find this information online, but I'd be willing to wager that a good chunk of major league corner outfielders don't meet that criteria anymore.Doesn't mean you shouldn't hope for it, but you may not find it very easily.5 years ago, yeah, today, not so much.

It's like a 115-135 OPS+ range in 2014.  Was more like 105-125 back in 2010.

 

Fangraphs says that OPS range would rank 14-25 among qualified OF (including CF) so far in 2014.


#36 Thegrin

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 02:07 PM

If Parmalee finishes the year with an OPS+ of above 100 (currently 103), he is your answer to Left Field. This assumes that Arcia will also have an OPS+ above 90 (currently 98).There are 2 months to play and the Twins will be facing many more inferior pitchers for the rest of the schedule. It will be interesting to see what the final results will be..


#37 jokin

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 03:10 PM

The future is now.....Jordan Shafer starts tonight in LF.

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#38 Kwak

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 03:25 PM

Next season's LF is definitely undecided.However, many different options exist and a patoon could be used.I don't belive Arcia has a position cast in steel.I am not convinced Sano's position is 3B--OF may be where that talentis utilized. In short, many teams have "compromised" for a hitter to play LF, through the years the Twins have, and said teams have been successful despite said "compromise".


#39 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 05:27 PM

Next season it will likely be Parmelee. Both Parm and Plouffe will get another year to audition so to speak. Both were basically ML average this year. Sano is going to push Plouffe as soon as late next year, at which point, I suspect TR is going to have to choose between one or the other. If neither really break out in 2015, then I'm guessing they get a free agent.

#40 kab21

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 06:57 PM

I think the Twins hope Polanco is the future SS, but want to give Escobar every opportunity to stick there for the next 1-2 years (if not permanently), because they like his glove more than Santana's or Nunez's.

I think they believe Santana is a defensive liability and would rather he work on those issues in the minor leagues if not for the fiasco in center field this year. And I think Gardy probably lobbied to keep Santana around (even after the Fuld pickup) because he is in love with his skillset - 1. fast, 2, switch hitter, 3. decent bunter. I think the Twins FO is ok because Santana was/is good enough to stop the bleeding in CF and maybe they started to see potential for a Bonifacio/super-utility type player down the line.

Please elaborate on these defensive issues.Santana has always been regarded as an excellent defender in the minors.We aren't talking about Plouffe here.Plouffe had defensive question marks his entire MiLB career.Many thought Santana could stick at SS for awhile in the majors due to his glove alone.

 

The issue that I see happening next year is that they continue to roll with Santana in CF and at that point he will have spent two years off of SS.It's difficult to move back to a demanding position like SS if/when Escobar does a Florimon impression and Polanco takes longer than expected or doesn't do well in AA/AAA.

I look forward to the day that a pitching prospect is truly blocked by good pitchers.