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Article: Twins Acquire Tommy Milone

tommy milone kennys vargas sam fuld
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#61 TheLeviathan

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 10:31 AM

This trade is great!  Awesome value for a friggin wavier claim earlier this year!  

 

And a bonus in that Vargas is up and that DH spot people were wanting to give to Morales instead actually might get manned by a big part of the future for the rest of the year.  That's tremendousy exciting.  (And further reinforcing about how much more aggressive with position players this team is than pitchers.  Wow)

 

Now, get rid of Correia and Willingham and you've already turned a successful deadline into an amazing one.

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#62 gil4

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 10:34 AM

Danny Santana full time CF?  Welcome back Aaron Hicks?  What happens now?

 

Called up Vargas as 1B/DH/CF.  

 

Ok, that will probably Parmelee, but to quote Hillary Clinton, "at this point, what difference does it make."

 

We got rid of a short term marginal asset and received a somewhat longer term less marginal asset.  (Not sure his arbitration status) 

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#63 twinstalker

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 10:36 AM

Does Vargas pretty much say no Pinto?

 

I think Vargas is a placeholder for Polanco, who can't be recalled for a few days.


#64 drjim

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 10:37 AM

I think Vargas is a placeholder for Polanco, who can't be recalled for a few days.

 

The beat readers made it seem like this is pretty permanent, barring terrible results by Vargas.

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Papers...business papers.

#65 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 10:38 AM

I think Vargas is a placeholder for Polanco, who can't be recalled for a few days.

 

Boy, I don't see it that way. Vargas was hitting well in New Britain. I think he's going to get a legitimate chance to stick in the lineup.


#66 JB_Iowa

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 10:40 AM

Boy, I don't see it that way. Vargas was hitting well in New Britain. I think he's going to get a legitimate chance to stick in the lineup.

 

He was hitting well earlier in NB but was on a bit of a skid.

 

Still, he seems to me like the type who may really take advantage of this opportunity -- hope to see it happen.  Great attitude.


#67 twinstalker

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 10:45 AM

Boy, I don't see it that way. Vargas was hitting well in New Britain. I think he's going to get a legitimate chance to stick in the lineup.

Well, I guess that could be, but I think it's probably prompted by Polanco's unavailability.  I guess it doesn't really matter.  I'd rather keep Polanco down, because he's more likely to eventually be a service-time worry, i.e., the better player.


#68 drjim

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 10:47 AM

Also, and correct if I'm wrong, but the 10 day period is waived in case of a trade (in addition to injury and the expanded rosters in September).

Papers...business papers.

#69 beckmt

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 10:48 AM

Great trade for the Twins(at least that is how it looks).  Will see what happens now, but the shuffling the rest of the week should lead to plenty of comments.  Great to see what Vargas has, if not to see what work he has in Rochester next year.  All it shows is that the Twins hope to see all of their minor league affiliates make the playoffs, New Britain just has the worst chance of it. 


#70 twinstalker

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 11:05 AM

Also, and correct if I'm wrong, but the 10 day period is waived in case of a trade (in addition to injury and the expanded rosters in September).

And you are of course correct, though I generally don't let facts get in the way of what I say.


#71 drjim

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 11:09 AM

And you are of course correct, though I generally don't let facts get in the way of what I say.

 

That wasn't necessarily a response to you, it was a legitimate question. I don't know the rule involving the 10 day period and trades. I know with an injury you can bring a guy back up, not sure on trades.

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#72 spycake

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 11:25 AM

This kind of reminds me when the Tigers got Doug Fister for nothing.  His numbers were about the same.  He doesn't strike anyone out....but turned out to be a good pitcher on the cheap for them.

I like this deal too, but the reason Fister probably became a plus MLB starter with Detroit was a full +2.0 increase in K/9.  (And now that his K rate is back down with Washington, he's thus far almost halved his BB/9 rate.)

 

That said, Milone doesn't have to be a plus MLB starter to be a good return for Fuld -- maintaining his career 100 ERA+ would be sufficient.


#73 JB_Iowa

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 11:27 AM

Good analysis of the trade from Fangraphs:

 

http://www.fangraphs...pleting-the-as/


#74 spycake

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 11:44 AM

Oakland sure knows its pitching.  4 of their current starting 5 is under contract for 2015, they have a good swingman this year too (Pomeranz), and they will also have two young pitchers returning from surgery in 2015.  Talk about dealing from depth!  Without even looking at prospects, Milone is between 7-9 on their SP depth chart, and is due to start getting expensive this winter (first arbitration).  (EDIT: a little further down their depth chart now that they added Lester too.)

 

Oakland's 7-9 starters might be pretty good, although it does temper my enthusiasm a bit that they trust converted journeyman reliever Chavez and $6 mil free agent Hammel the rest of this season over Milone.  (EDIT: Hammel might go to the pen for Lester, I guess.)

 

Some other recently departed starters have left Oakland and found similar success elsewhere, at least for awhile: Gonzalez, Cahill, Colon, and perhaps now McCarthy in NY.

Edited by spycake, 31 July 2014 - 11:51 AM.


#75 nicksaviking

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 12:03 PM

Good analysis of the trade from Fangraphs:

 

http://www.fangraphs...pleting-the-as/

Good article, and Fuld is being undervalued.  The one thing that the article didn't mention is Fuld's pretty awesome .370 OBP, which you know Beane likes.  He's not better than Cespedes, but that is a .63 OBP gain.

 

Still can't help but be drawn to this inferrence:

 

"the team that might value him the most."

 

And this one

 

"Everything works out, then. Milone wanted a change of scenery, and he landed with the organization that most values his kind of skillset."

 

Fangraphs and everyone else who studies baseball will continue to assume that the Twins refuse to look for strikeout pitchers at the MLB level until they start to prove otherwise.


#76 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 12:09 PM

Fangraphs and everyone else who studies baseball will continue to assume that the Twins refuse to look for strikeout pitchers at the MLB level until they start to prove otherwise.

 

I don't think that commentary was as much about Milone's strikeout rate as it was his ability to avoid bases on balls.


#77 ScrapTheNickname

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 12:16 PM

He has a career 3.84 ERA, or better than Hughes this year. I don't think he qualifies as a #5 starter.

 

And his WHIP has consistently been around 1.2, which fits my definition of pretty good.


#78 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 12:18 PM

This seems like a steal to me - The Twins had Sam Fuld on Waivers from Oakland for *nothing (*they lost a guy from the bottom of the 40 man to the Angels, right? A pitcher?), held onto him for awhile, and then ended up with a young lefty starter that is better than the AAAA Carousel they've been trotting out.

 

I like this deal a lot at this moment.

 

I imagine both teams are happy with this deal, and both players feel ok about it too.

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#79 JB_Iowa

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 12:22 PM

I imagine both teams are happy with this deal, and both players feel ok about it too.

 

I think so too.  Twins were in the right position at the right time with a player Oakland liked (and had given up because of depth that didn't last).

 

Oakland gets back someone with whom they are familiar and has a good OBP and gives up someone from a position of strength who was unhappy at getting bumped to the minors.

 

Everybody wins -- and the Twins get a good deal.


#80 Blackjack

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 12:24 PM

Good move by Terry Ryan, recognizing another teams excess - starting pitching - and possible need of an outfielder - and got it done. I'd even like to speculate that he offered up Willingham first but when Oakland said they'd rather have Fuld he said "Let me think about it a minute.... LETS DO IT!!!!!"


#81 SweetOne69

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 12:41 PM

Regarding Milone being assigned to AAA, I believe that Brock reported that he pitched on Tuesday so he wouldn't be able to replace Darnell or Pino who pitch today and tomorrow.  My guess is that Darnell will be optioned out after his start tonight and Milone will be recalled to pitch on Tuesday.


#82 Oxtung

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 12:49 PM

I love, love, love this trade. I don't even fully understand it. I've heard hours of Suzuki, Willingham, etc. trade speculation, and to think that a guy we got back for SAM FULD is represents more established value than anybody reasonably discussed for those guys?!

Milone fits the Twins' mold, for sure. He doesn't really miss bats, but has exception control. His numbers were probably helped by playing in a great pitcher's park. But at that age and contract situation, he's a great left-handed pitching asset - basically for free.

He may have an ERA in the low 4's on this team, but if the K rate returns more to the mid-6's, that would still be significantly better than several other starters on this staff.


When was the last time a pitchers K rate increased when coming to the twins? I think it far more likely that 4K/9 is here to stay then a return to 6K/9. That said good trade for all involved.

#83 nicksaviking

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 12:51 PM

I don't think that commentary was as much about Milone's strikeout rate as it was his ability to avoid bases on balls.

 

That sounds like a value all teams have. 

 

Even if it's not true, the national perception is that the Twins are the team that most disregards the strikeout and there has been plenty of commentary on that issue, multiple times from Fangraphs in fact.


#84 Shane Wahl

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 01:11 PM

This is an excellent trade and I am happy for Vargas.


#85 spycake

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 01:14 PM

 


Yeah...in the ballpark with guys making $10-11.75M a year in that stat as well.  Milone has a career ERA + of 100.

 

Arroyo 103 ERA+ (11.75M)

Feldman 95 ERA + (10M)

Nolasco 91 ERA + (11M)

 

Seems like we basically went out and got a guy that may put up the same numbers on a 3 year, 5-8M deal (3 years of arbitration until he is a FA in 2018)

 

You have a rotation of Nolasco, Gibson, Meyer, and Hughes plus a rookie (Milone or May).  The rotation will be at about $26M with Pelfrey sitting in the minors somewhere.  Looks like some money will be left over for the lineup.

Moved from the general trade deadline thread...

 

Nolasco's career ERA+ was actually 94 when he signed the contract.  Feldman's was a tick higher too.  But generally, yeah, those could be some FA comparables.

 

Right now, Milone could be looking at 3-5-7 salaries the next three years, right?  Or maybe a little more if he goes year-to-year in arbitration.  Still, a 3/15 deal for the cost of Sam Fuld sounds pretty good.


#86 old nurse

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 01:15 PM

When was the last time a pitchers K rate increased when coming to the twins? I think it far more likely that 4K/9 is here to stay then a return to 6K/9. That said good trade for all involved.

Hughes is above career average for k/9 while bb/9 is at a career low

The Twins really have not brought in that many established starting pitchers


#87 zchrz

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 01:21 PM

Wow I like Sam Fuld and all, but I never would have thought he would return a decent mlb ready arm.  Milone is a soft tossing lefty but seems to have shown a fair of promise so far in the mlb to maybe be a Jason Vargas type guy eventually. 

 

Good job TR, now go move Zuke/ Hammer/ Duens/ Corriea/ ect.

 

And congratz Mr. Vargas he should be fun to watch.

Edited by zchrz, 31 July 2014 - 01:21 PM.

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#88 spycake

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 01:23 PM

By my calculations, Milone is currently at 2 years and 110 days service time (2 years 18 days coming into the year, plus 92 more days before he was optioned on July 5).  A player needs 172 service days in a season to get credit for a full season, and there are only 58 days of MLB play left this year, after today.  So at best, Milone will finish with 2 years 168 days, or less if we don't activate him until sometime next week.

 

So the Twins should have Milone controlled for the next FOUR seasons, through 2018, albeit at similar cost as he should get arbitration all four years.

Edited by spycake, 31 July 2014 - 01:25 PM.

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#89 stringer bell

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 02:29 PM

I think they want to see Darnell one more time as a starter.  He seemed to pitch much better than his line and I don't think it will hurt to see him get one more shot and maybe leave Chicago feeling a little better about his stay with the Twins. 

 

I am excited to see Vargas.  He'll strike out a lot, but heck everybody does.  I saw him clobber a couple of ST homers that looked to go about 450 feet, one LH and one RH.  It would be fun to see him put a couple in orbit in ChiTown.   


#90 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 31 July 2014 - 02:31 PM

By my calculations, Milone is currently at 2 years and 110 days service time (2 years 18 days coming into the year, plus 92 more days before he was optioned on July 5).  A player needs 172 service days in a season to get credit for a full season, and there are only 58 days of MLB play left this year, after today.  So at best, Milone will finish with 2 years 168 days, or less if we don't activate him until sometime next week.

 

So the Twins should have Milone controlled for the next FOUR seasons, through 2018, albeit at similar cost as he should get arbitration all four years.

 

Nice catch. If that's truly the case, I think it's almost a certainty the Twins keep him down for a couple of days at the minimum. It's certainly worth that extra year of control.




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