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Article: Minnesota Twins Top Ten Prospects

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 04:56 AM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...p-Ten-Prospects

#2 Chance

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 06:54 AM

The only reason I would like Sano in Ft. Myers would be to work with the better coaches. Him and Rosario could really benefit with a move to A+. But it's not because I want him in the majors this year.

#3 mike wants wins

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 07:32 AM

When do they finally move Sano to RF or 1B? It "appears clear" he won't be sticking at 3B.....This top 10 list is pretty nice, with lots of ceiling (but some bad floors too....). For some reason, I'm a big Rosario backer. I just read a future 2B in him.

#4 Jeff P

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 07:45 AM

Quite a few exciting players, several of which we are seeing now or will be seeing soon. Thanks for putting this together. Is there a reason that Boyd moved up so much even though he hasn't played? Jeff

#5 CDog

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 08:04 AM

Pretty sure you have the wrong position for Arcia. Just an FYI for those reading that don't know.

#6 Rosterman

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 08:27 AM

Arcia - position - right-handed power RHP.....

#7 ossieO

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 08:39 AM

I saw Rosario play 2B in Beloit a couple of weeks ago. I thought he got some poor jumps/reads.....like he is still learning the position. I also could see the athleticism; he made an awesome relay throw to 3B, quick and very strong. I hope the conversion to 2B is successful. The night I was in Beloit Sano got the night off, then popped out as a pinch hitter. Lots of fans were disappointed he wasn't in the lineup, me included.

#8 Mr. Ed

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 08:45 AM

Many believe that he may eventually need to move to the bullpen. It’s way too early to know that.


This seems to be the Twins problem. Draft guys high that either wash out or have to go to the bullpen.


#9 RinaldiPhotos

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 10:09 AM

I saw Rosario play 2B in Beloit a couple of weeks ago. I thought he got some poor jumps/reads.....like he is still learning the position. I also could see the athleticism; he made an awesome relay throw to 3B, quick and very strong. I hope the conversion to 2B is successful.

The night I was in Beloit Sano got the night off, then popped out as a pinch hitter. Lots of fans were disappointed he wasn't in the lineup, me included.


Prada screwed that game up though. He had 2 catchers playing (dh and C). He pinch hit Sano for an outfielder or something like that and then took sano out and put another OF in or something. He should have picnh hit Sano for the DH or done a double switch and and had the Catcher dhing play C and then Sano take DH taking the Catcher who was playing C out.

#10 Steve Lein

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 10:41 AM

Arcia - position - right-handed power RHP.....


Too bad he's Left-handed q;) cause that actually would be an awesome position!

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#11 TRex

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 10:58 AM

While I really like Arcia as a prospect, I do think you need to go the extra mile and point out that he is Hicks-esque (or would that be Hicks-like?) in that his platoon OPS split is .551/.980 vs. LH and RH, respectively.

#12 twinswon1991

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 11:19 AM

YUK. This top 10 list is exhibit A why the entire scouting department should be fired. They havent drafted a single true prospect in years. A system full of Blackburns and Hockings is just plain embarassing.

#13 Seth Stohs

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 12:20 PM

While I really like Arcia as a prospect, I do think you need to go the extra mile and point out that he is Hicks-esque (or would that be Hicks-like?) in that his platoon OPS split is .551/.980 vs. LH and RH, respectively.


Great point, and it was in my notes, and it's why he is #5 and not #3.

#14 Seth Stohs

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 12:24 PM

YUK. This top 10 list is exhibit A why the entire scouting department should be fired. They havent drafted a single true prospect in years. A system full of Blackburns and Hockings is just plain embarassing.


I don't think that's fair or true. Not in the Top 10. There are those types in 11-20 group, but not in this one. Like any team's top 10, there are question marks, but I think everyone in the group has high ceiling, with the possible exception of Dozier who looks more like a sure-thing to contribute for awhile.

#15 birdwatcher

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 03:43 PM

A couple years years ago, the best we could put on this list were guys like Valencia, Plouffe, Hughes, Manship, etc. We correctly assessed that none of those players were going to be difference-makers. Sano, Dozier, Rosario, and Hendriks versus those guys? So, this farm system has improved. Anyone who thinks this top ten is void of exciting prospects is utterly clueless. Don't you agree, twinswon1991?

#16 PMKI

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 03:51 PM

Seth, are you going to update your list throughout the season? Like after the draft?

#17 Bark's Lounge

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 04:22 PM

I am surprised, but pleased to see Rosario rated #2. Not that a offensive and defensively minded CF is bad, but if he can stick at 2B all the better. So far, so good for the 4th round pick out of Puerto Rico.

#18 Seth Stohs

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 05:35 PM

Seth, are you going to update your list throughout the season? Like after the draft?


Typically I do one following the end of the minor league season... Then when my next book comes out, it'll hae a top 30 or 40. A ton of research goes into the book, and that's why things can change from September to January.

#19 Thrylos

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 06:34 PM

I think that Rosario just needs a bit more time at 2B and will be able to master it. Converting an OF to an IF is kinda difficult because the ball comes to you much faster in the IF, plus in the middle positions you need to figure out footwork with covering 2B with runners trying to steal or advance, turning the double play as well as being the cutoff man. He will be fine. He is a smart athletic kid. Not like he has to play the position in the majors right now... in the 2-3 seasons it will take him to reach the majors, he will master it. Interestingly enough, the Twins switched another Beloit guy, JaDamion Williams to OF from 2B. I cannot argue with this list. Hendriks and Dozier will not be on prospect lists for much longer. I think that Benson's season was a tad disappointing, but he was hurt, so that is maybe an excuse.
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#20 twinswon1991

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 06:38 PM

Anyone who thinks this top ten is void of exciting prospects is utterly clueless. Don't you agree, twinswon1991?[/QUOTE] Sano is a VERY exciting prospect but he was not drafted. Name one impact player or potential impact player the Twins have drafted since Mauer? Span is a solid major leaguer but will never be an all star. Other than that????? I hear Crickets......... Liraino had major potential but he was a trade target. Try to find one organization that has drafted worse in that time span. All I am saying is if you have DRAFTED no impact players and have no draftees listed in the top 50 of any MLB prospect lists it is time to clean house in the scouting department or you will be putrid forever. This organization MUST draft and develop because they cannot spend with the big boys and their coaching will always be skewed towards pitch to contact and opposite field hitting which can't compete against good teams esp. in playoffs. They need extreme talent like Santana, Hunter, Morneau, and Mauer to overcome the poor coaching philosphy.

Edited by twinswon1991, 30 May 2012 - 06:41 PM.


#21 Thrylos

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 06:57 PM

This organization MUST draft and develop because they cannot spend with the big boys and their coaching will always skewed towards pitch to contact and opposite field hitting which can't compete against good teams esp. in playoffs.


True. And the Develop is the big part. But the rule 4 (the upcoming Amateur) Draft is about half of the story... The other half is international signees. You cannot ignore this, esp, since about 50% of the best MLB players come that way instead of the draft. But you got to develop them both.

As far as decent players who they have drafted recently go (and I am talking from 2000-7 on since you mentioned Mauer and the others need time to make it,) these guys made the bigs (and I am not talking about players who were drafted but not signed) and I am not talking about the likes of Matt Macri. These guys made the bigs and had a positive WAR (and I am including some who don't but they just had a cup of coffee like Benson) :

2000- 12th round Jason Kubel,
2001- 1st round Mauer, 29th round Blackburn, 3rd round Jose Morales
2002- 1st round Span, 2nd round Crain, 6th round Neshek,
2003 - 2nd round Baker
2004 - 1st round Plouffe, Perkins, Waldrop, 2nd round Swarzak, 16th round Tolbert
2005 - 1st round Garza (they drafted well, they traded badly), 2nd round Slowey, 3rd round Duensing, 12th round Burnett,
2006 - 1st round Parmelee, 2nd round Benson, 14th round Manship, 19th round Valencia, 39th round Slama

They just have not drafted superstars, but there are not many superstars...[TABLE="class: sortable stats_table no_highlight"]


[TR]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[/TR]


[/TABLE]
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#22 twinswon1991

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 08:29 PM

True. And the Develop is the big part. But the rule 4 (the upcoming Amateur) Draft is about half of the story... The other half is international signees. You cannot ignore this, esp, since about 50% of the best MLB players come that way instead of the draft. But you got to develop them both.

As far as decent players who they have drafted recently go (and I am talking from 2000-7 on since you mentioned Mauer and the others need time to make it,) these guys made the bigs (and I am not talking about players who were drafted but not signed) and I am not talking about the likes of Matt Macri. These guys made the bigs and had a positive WAR (and I am including some who don't but they just had a cup of coffee like Benson) :

2000- 12th round Jason Kubel,
2001- 1st round Mauer, 29th round Blackburn, 3rd round Jose Morales
2002- 1st round Span, 2nd round Crain, 6th round Neshek,
2003 - 2nd round Baker
2004 - 1st round Plouffe, Perkins, Waldrop, 2nd round Swarzak, 16th round Tolbert
2005 - 1st round Garza (they drafted well, they traded badly), 2nd round Slowey, 3rd round Duensing, 12th round Burnett,
2006 - 1st round Parmelee, 2nd round Benson, 14th round Manship, 19th round Valencia, 39th round Slama

They just have not drafted superstars, but there are not many superstars...[TABLE="class: sortable stats_table no_highlight"]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]



I forgot about Garza, that was a good pick even if they got fleeced later. Yet the post Mauer drafts look horrible overall. Span, Garza and a whole lot of reloef pitchers and AAAA players. The Twins have had a few good international signings, I will grant you that, however that doesn't give them a pass for the putrid drafting. To me they have really missed on starting pitchers. In the last 10 years, all except Baker and Garza are relief pitchers which are completely wasted picks when you can build a good pen with waiver wire fodder and cheap deals.

The Twins need to focus on finding guys who can strike out batters and have 3 pitches instead of focusing almost entirely on control and makeup.

#23 mike wants wins

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 08:43 PM

I don't want to derail the thread, but this team has to be better at drafting and developing. The best players to come up the last three years are Valencia and Revere.....it's too early to tell on Dozier, but he's not going to help them much this year (as an individual he's mediocre for a SS, I'm not talking team success). Not one starting pitcher in three years. Not one legit 2B or 3B. Maybe a SS. Maybe 1 OFer. That's not going to cut it, when you refuse to sign free agents as a general rule. No DH/1B.
Lighten up Francis....

#24 Seth Stohs

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 08:49 PM

Fun chat! Good times!

#25 mike wants wins

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 08:58 PM

Again, Seth, your work on this stuff is amazing. And, I think I agree on the top 10...not sure on the order, but the list looks right/good. Thanks again.
Lighten up Francis....

#26 Thrylos

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 09:02 PM

I don't want to derail the thread, but this team has to be better at drafting and developing. The best players to come up the last three years are Valencia and Revere.....it's too early to tell on Dozier, but he's not going to help them much this year (as an individual he's mediocre for a SS, I'm not talking team success). Not one starting pitcher in three years. Not one legit 2B or 3B. Maybe a SS. Maybe 1 OFer. That's not going to cut it, when you refuse to sign free agents as a general rule. No DH/1B.


I think that Hendriks is a starter they developed the last 3 years. Not drafted, but still... If Gibson were not injured, he'd be in Minnesota this season. Part of the issue here is that they have had what they thought would be a core of 4 starters (Baker, Blackburn, Slowey, Liriano) to get them through a few years and did not happen quite that way...
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#27 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 31 May 2012 - 12:22 PM

Hoping Harrson & Boyd can turn out, but true to Twins...they will keep them in GCL this yr & ELIZ next yr.....and not know anymore about them then they do today. Cannot trust numbers at either level....makes me so upset about Keplar & Goodrum goin back to ELIZ. Last yr was their draft yr, so that shoulda been the GLC yr. IF they ONLY play in ELIZ this yr as 19 yrs olds do....then fine, we'll find out about them next year. I trust ELIZ numbers less & less each year.....huge power numbers for the likes of Evan Bigby/Angel Morales etc in that league. Never understood why top prospects cant start in Beloit & if they cannot handle it yet, send em back to ELIZ.....ala BJ Hersen 2 yrs ago. Cant help but improve their development unless they have so little confidence to recover from a bad 2 months.

#28 mike wants wins

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Posted 31 May 2012 - 12:53 PM

I'm not talking about who they've developed, but who is in the majors 2 years ago, last year, and this year, and Hendriks isn't in the majors right now. Neither is Valencia. They have graduated zero players we are certain are going to be league average, for at least two years in the majors (as in, if they brought up Tosoni today, would he ever be league average for two years). On a team that says building through the draft is the only way to really build. How is that acceptable to their bosses? I understand that Gibson would be here but for the injury, and that stinks. But that's 1 guy, in three years. Maybe Hendriks breaks that drought, maybe Dozier, heck maybe even Revere. But I don't see anyone I'm pretty certain that happens with in the last three seasons. Plenty of other teams, even those drafting later than the Twins, have a better track record than that.
Lighten up Francis....

#29 beckmt

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Posted 01 June 2012 - 08:44 PM

Let's face this real issue. The Twins over the last few years have been drafting 20 + in the first round and the 2008-2010 era signability was a big issue. That is why the big payroll clubs got players better than their draft position. Many small market clubs were told by Scott Boras types that the best players would never sign if they had other options. (Not a college senior). Billy Smith was responsible for expanding our international presence (which seems to be turning out better that our drafting). Most of our front line prospects (at least 1 -3 ) came from this group. Key to note will be how many of these prospects are moved up the latter after the first half standing finish in all leagues. Most of the top prospects unless they have issues that need to be fixed, should be moved up a level. This will tell how close the prospect is to the major leagues and should help planning the next two years of signings.

#30 benhertz

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Posted 01 June 2012 - 11:28 PM

If Michael continues to struggle offensively in Ft. Myers, should the Twins send him to Beloit and promote Rosario?