Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

The same great Twins Daily coverage, now for the Vikings.

The Store

Recent Blogs


Photo

Patience Paid Off For Gibson

kyle gibson rick anderson gardy options tj surgery
  • Please log in to reply
25 replies to this topic

#1 stringer bell

stringer bell

    Confirmed Hacker

  • Twins News Team
  • 4,238 posts
  • LocationZumbrota MN

Posted 29 July 2014 - 09:57 PM

I like Kyle Gibson.  He's an earnest young man with talent throwing a baseball.  As all of the talking heads have pointed out, he's had a number of great starts, but his record is marred by a high number of stinkers.  I would submit that Murphy's Law has bit him pretty hard in some of his bad starts, but all in all he has earned a place in the 2015 rotation and has a chance to put up pretty good numbers in his first full season as a Major League starting pitcher.

 

There was a push among the fans last year to elevate Gibson, sooner rather than later.  The Twins waited until midseason, gave him only 10 starts and then basically shut him down.  I thought the club was overcautious with an important commodity, but in hindsight it looks like they handled Gibson pretty well. 

 

There is every reason to believe that he can improve his overall mark next year and be a solid pitcher for years to come.  I still think there is a chance that he can develop into a #1 starter or at least a 1A.  Maybe the "go slow" approach is the right one for Meyer and May. 

  • Twins Twerp likes this

#2 Monkeypaws

Monkeypaws

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 716 posts

Posted 29 July 2014 - 10:08 PM

He has certainly put together a pretty nice season so far. If he finishes with 12-14 wins and an ERA under 4, I'd say "more of the same please."

  • Seth Stohs likes this

#3 Willihammer

Willihammer

    ice cream correspondent

  • Members
  • 3,030 posts
  • LocationSaint Paul

Posted 29 July 2014 - 10:10 PM

I like Gibson, but there is a small part of me that wonders if he is the next Blackie. He so stingy with the strikeouts.


#4 Badsmerf

Badsmerf

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,683 posts

Posted 29 July 2014 - 11:01 PM

  I thought the club was overcautious with an important commodity, but in hindsight it looks like they handled Gibson pretty well. 

 

How can you say this, without considering the exact opposite? Had he been given adequate time to adjust in 2013, would we have seen him pitching this consistently well at the beginning of the season? If you ask me (glad you did BTW), I say yes. I believe there is an adjustment period for all players with some being longer than others. How well Gibson pitches obviously doesn't matter to the 2014 Twins, but that isn't the point. The point is maximizing value with your commodities. No future success of Gibson will ever convince me the Twins "did the right thing" in leaving him in AAA for 2 months longer than they should have.

  • Danchat likes this
Do or do not. There is no try.

#5 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 7,566 posts

Posted 29 July 2014 - 11:40 PM

The reality is that we will never know.

 

If a guy comes up and struggles, fans will say that they rushed him (Hicks, Arcia).

If a guy doesn't come up from the minors when fans think they are ready, the Twins are not smart.

If a guy comes up later than many think and struggles, were the fans wrong?

If a guy comes up later than many think he should and succeeds, the fans will bash the front office for taking so long (instead of saying they played it right.

 

So, there is no winning. 

  • ChiTownTwinsFan, James, jay and 4 others like this

#6 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    refuses to surrender his World Series baseball

  • Members
  • 1,305 posts

Posted 29 July 2014 - 11:43 PM

Hopefully May and Meyer make their debuts soon and get that handful of starts that benefitted Gibson so much.
  • Sconnie likes this

#7 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,259 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 30 July 2014 - 06:03 AM

The reality is that we will never know.

 

If a guy comes up and struggles, fans will say that they rushed him (Hicks, Arcia).

If a guy doesn't come up from the minors when fans think they are ready, the Twins are not smart.

If a guy comes up later than many think and struggles, were the fans wrong?

If a guy comes up later than many think he should and succeeds, the fans will bash the front office for taking so long (instead of saying they played it right.

 

So, there is no winning. 

 

This is about perfect. People can find something to complain about the Twins with every player they bring up.

 

In my opinion, if Gibson makes it through the year basically healthy (a skipped start or two aside) I would see that as a job well done by the Twins development staff. Good, if somewhat inconsistent, production is a bonus and something that could really be built upon going forward.

 

The Ks are low, but I think he is the type of pitcher that will steadily improve that with more time. He's no Blackburn.

  • stringer bell likes this
Papers...business papers.

#8 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 838 posts

Posted 30 July 2014 - 06:53 AM

I hope Gibson gets his strikeout rate up next year, but this has been a very good first year.  He his going to be much better than Blackburn


#9 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,234 posts

Posted 30 July 2014 - 06:58 AM

Correlation is not causation. Just sayin'

  • jharaldson likes this
Lighten up Francis....

#10 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,259 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 30 July 2014 - 09:37 AM

Correlation is not causation. Just sayin'

 

You are probably thinking more of the post hoc ergo proctor hoc fallacy.

 

But the greatness of that is that anyone can claim it to prove whatever point they want to.

Papers...business papers.

#11 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,234 posts

Posted 30 July 2014 - 09:56 AM

Ya, I realized after I hit submit that I said the wrong thing.....just didn't get to edit it yet.

Lighten up Francis....

#12 tobi0040

tobi0040

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,423 posts

Posted 30 July 2014 - 10:06 AM

I hope Gibson gets his strikeout rate up next year, but this has been a very good first year.  He his going to be much better than Blackburn

I expect more K's from Gibson in time.  His K's from the minors to the big leages fell off a cliff, more than usual.  If he can get up to 6-7 K's per 9 with the great ground ball rate I think he is a #2 starter, a very nice piece.

 Gibson had 102 IP in AAA last year with a 2.92 ERA.  May is at 84 right now and Meyer at 106 with similar ERA's.  Hopefully they are up soon.

Edited by tobi0040, 30 July 2014 - 10:09 AM.

  • Sconnie likes this

#13 Mike Frasier Law

Mike Frasier Law

    Member

  • Members
  • 69 posts

Posted 30 July 2014 - 11:57 AM

The Blackburn comparison made me sad. So I compared them to see how close they are in some key statistics:

 

Gibson 2014:        4.8 k/9     2.52 bb/9  .55 hr/9    55.5% gb%

Blackburn career : 4.27 k/9  2.22 bb/9  1.29 hr/9  47.5% gb%

 

I think the hr/9 and gb% are probably related. Gibson strikes more out (still among worst in league) but his elite ground ball rate and decent control make me believe his production is sustainable. His FIP and xFIP reflect that as well, as they are both very close to his ERA on the year (3.94 ERA / 3.73 FIP / 4.09 xFIP).

 

If he struck out even 6 per 9 while keeping the other numbers the same, he could be an excellent pitcher. But that might be hoping for too much. If he keeps his rates the same, I expect him to be an above-average pitcher, which is a welcome sight in our rotation.

  • Brock Beauchamp, mike wants wins, James and 1 other like this

#14 StormJH1

StormJH1

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 472 posts

Posted 30 July 2014 - 02:31 PM

"Blackie" was reference to Blackburn, which is one possible comparison.  It also reminded me of Scott Erickson (the black socks):

 

http://www.baseball-...ericksc01.shtml

 

Erickson probably had better movement (and less control) than Gibson, but whether or not you buy any comparison, Erickson is a good example of what happens in this league when you absolutely cannot miss bats.  A sub-4 ERA in 1991 and 1992, and then he leads the league in hits allowed in '93 and had to be one of the worst full-time starters that year (this predates me a bit both in age and I lived somewhere else, but you get the point).

 

Probably the best career path Gibson could hope for is someone like Brandon McCarthy, who basically never walks anyone, but will get knocked around on occasion.  At the end of the year though, his numbers usually average out to something decent.

 

The stat they threw up in his last start about having the most extreme splits between wins and losses was interesting, because the next four guys on that list were either elite pitchers, or guys that do strike people out).  Gibson's whole approach is predicated on putting the ball in play - he really never had a prolonged track record in the minors of striking guys out.

 

We're actually fortunate to end up with a mid-rotation guy out of his injury history, but I think we're seeing about as good as he'll be.


#15 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,975 posts

Posted 30 July 2014 - 04:05 PM

Gibson 2014:        4.8 k/9     2.52 bb/9  .55 hr/9    55.5% gb%

Blackburn career : 4.27 k/9  2.22 bb/9  1.29 hr/9  47.5% gb%

Would probably be more fair to compare Gibson's 2014 to Blackburn's good seasons, where he had notably better BB and HR rates than those career rates.

 

Gibson still seems to have a much better track record of GB and HR rates, though, and of course minor league K rates.


#16 whosafraidofluigirussolo

whosafraidofluigirussolo

    Member

  • Members
  • 59 posts

Posted 30 July 2014 - 04:41 PM

He so stingy with the strikeouts.

 

Does anyone more wonky than me about stats, pitch-fx, etc. have any insight on this? Gibson's minor league K rates were between 7.5 and 10.5 per 9 (the latter inflated by pitching beneath his level on a rehab assignment, but still.) Based on that you wouldn't expect him to be especially bad at missing bats, but are there mechanical factors or other factors we don't see?


#17 Monkeypaws

Monkeypaws

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 716 posts

Posted 30 July 2014 - 05:15 PM

Let's let Gibson be Gibson - comparing him to Blackburn is as pointless as comparing him to Radke.


#18 DocBauer

DocBauer

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 661 posts

Posted 30 July 2014 - 09:03 PM

I agree with the premise of the post, as well as Seth's comments.

I think fast promotion or slower, facts, statistics and results can be skewed and used to argue any viewpoint. If Gibson was brought was brought up earlier last season after 6-7 solid starts and stunk, it would be easy to say he was brought up too soon, or the Twins don't know how to develop pitchers. If he came up and pitched well initially before stalling or running out of gas, which he seemed to do last season, it could be argued he was promoted too soon, wasn't real once the league saw him, or the Twins don't know how to develop pitchers. There really is no absolute or easy answer. Forget about talent or potential, these are talented young men who all develop in different ways at different times.

Personally, I believe the Twins handled Gibson perfectly. Early last season he was still in rehab mode, despite mostly positive results at AAA. No matter the results after his promotion, largely un impressive, he gained valuable experience that carried over to this season. And except for a few poor starts that skew his total numbers, he has largely pitched very well this season, and shows real promise for the future. I feel May and especially Meyer, who slightly resembles Gibson's injury setback, will be up soon to finish the year and gain similar experience to build on.

I appreciate but don't buy the Blackburn comparisons at all. Yes, both rely on ground balls, and yes, Gibson's SO numbers aren't yet where we want or expect. But frankly, Gibson is taller, bigger, and has more of a downward plane to his pitches to maintain high ground all rates. Further, his stuff is just harder and faster...nastier in potential...than anything Blackburn ever had. The 7 SO's against KC last night are an example. He will probably never have the pure SO numbers of May or Meyer, but I believe you will see a rise as he gains experience. And again, with his ground all percentage seeming to be something repeatable, that's OK.

"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

 

--Lou Brown


#19 Mike Frasier Law

Mike Frasier Law

    Member

  • Members
  • 69 posts

Posted 05 August 2014 - 08:27 AM

Rotographs (Fangraphs fantasy baseball side) just put up an interesting piece on Gibson. Granted, looking at him from a fantasy perspective is totally different, but I found the article encouraging. The author, Eno Sarris, is convinced Gibson's change-up is a legitimate plus pitch, and that the stats on it have stabilized. He noted Gibson gets many swings and misses on the pitch, and an excellent 58% gb rate.

 

What I liked best about the article is that it hints at a trend of Gibson using his sinker less in his last few starts. If he does that and uses more of his change-up, his gb% will stay or increase, but he should get more strike outs. We were all musing how good Gibson could be if only he struck out more batters, and this article implies that it is a real possibility!


#20 spanman2

spanman2

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 29 posts

Posted 05 August 2014 - 08:50 AM

The reality is that we will never know.

 

If a guy comes up and struggles, fans will say that they rushed him (Hicks, Arcia).

If a guy doesn't come up from the minors when fans think they are ready, the Twins are not smart.

If a guy comes up later than many think and struggles, were the fans wrong?

If a guy comes up later than many think he should and succeeds, the fans will bash the front office for taking so long (instead of saying they played it right.

 

So, there is no winning. 

That about sums it up right there.  Gibson has the makings of a very reliable starter.  If he can continue to give a 3.5-4.00 ish ERA that is one less starter you have to worry about.  I believe he and Hughes can both fit that mold.  Not superstar losing streak stopper/give him the ball in game 7 starter guy but very solid major league pitcher potential guy...I would let may/meyer/milone finish out the season.  Along the way giving Correia the opportunity to walk before Aug 31st  if any contending team needs/wants him.  I don't see him wanting to return after this year.  I believe his contract is up at the end of the season.  If not there was mention of entertaining a 6 man rotation the rest of the way in a previous post.  This I agree would give the organization the opportunity to evaluate the kids while not burning them out the remainder of the season. 

I WAS TOLD I WOULD NEVER MAKE IT BECAUSE I AM TOO SHORT. WELL, I'M STILL TOO SHORT. IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOUR HEIGHT IS. IT'S WHAT'S IN YOUR HEART.

KIRBY PUCKETT

#21 Willihammer

Willihammer

    ice cream correspondent

  • Members
  • 3,030 posts
  • LocationSaint Paul

Posted 05 August 2014 - 09:08 AM

We were all musing how good Gibson could be if only he struck out more batters, and this article implies that it is a real possibility!


Maybe the suppressed strikeouts are a result of Suzuki's pitch calling?

Parker wrote a piece in May about how, last year, Suzuki called a lot of fastballs.

http://twinsdaily.co...of-suzuki-r2455

Seems like its still the case.

#22 Oxtung

Oxtung

    I don't skinny dip. I chunky dunk.

  • Members
  • 1,522 posts

Posted 05 August 2014 - 09:53 AM

I agree with the premise of the post, as well as Seth's comments.

I think fast promotion or slower, facts, statistics and results can be skewed and used to argue any viewpoint. If Gibson was brought was brought up earlier last season after 6-7 solid starts and stunk, it would be easy to say he was brought up too soon, or the Twins don't know how to develop pitchers. If he came up and pitched well initially before stalling or running out of gas, which he seemed to do last season, it could be argued he was promoted too soon, wasn't real once the league saw him, or the Twins don't know how to develop pitchers. There really is no absolute or easy answer. Forget about talent or potential, these are talented young men who all develop in different ways at different times.

Personally, I believe the Twins handled Gibson perfectly. Early last season he was still in rehab mode, despite mostly positive results at AAA. No matter the results after his promotion, largely un impressive, he gained valuable experience that carried over to this season. And except for a few poor starts that skew his total numbers, he has largely pitched very well this season, and shows real promise for the future. I feel May and especially Meyer, who slightly resembles Gibson's injury setback, will be up soon to finish the year and gain similar experience to build on.

I appreciate but don't buy the Blackburn comparisons at all. Yes, both rely on ground balls, and yes, Gibson's SO numbers aren't yet where we want or expect. But frankly, Gibson is taller, bigger, and has more of a downward plane to his pitches to maintain high ground all rates. Further, his stuff is just harder and faster...nastier in potential...than anything Blackburn ever had. The 7 SO's against KC last night are an example. He will probably never have the pure SO numbers of May or Meyer, but I believe you will see a rise as he gains experience. And again, with his ground all percentage seeming to be something repeatable, that's OK.

 

I understand this has little to do with your point Doc but I've seen this a lot and felt I need to throw this out there for the community.  We as fans need to get away from thinking that height has any influence on ground ball rates.  The statistical evidence shows that there is no correlation


#23 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    refuses to surrender his World Series baseball

  • Members
  • 1,305 posts

Posted 05 August 2014 - 09:56 AM

There was a push among the fans last year to elevate Gibson, sooner rather than later.  The Twins waited until midseason, gave him only 10 starts and then basically shut him down.  I thought the club was overcautious with an important commodity, but in hindsight it looks like they handled Gibson pretty well. 
 
...

Maybe the "go slow" approach is the right one for Meyer and May.

Give them credit for Gibson. I think what drew criticism was that the Front Office explanations for leaving Gibson in AAA last year did not match what was happening during his starts. Gibson was throwing multiple 9-inning complete games even as the FO warned fans about being cautious with his tender elbow. Meyer is a little different story and so far they've managed his progress really well. (But promote him to the majors already, for Pete's sake.)

I'd rather the Twins just say "we're going to take it really slow, so live with it" and stick to that explanation, than to trot out the "consistency" argument after a subpar start, for example.

Results matter and the Twins did well by Gibson. Several young starting pitchers recently have been brought back from TJ faster than Gibson, and then had to go back under the knife. And also Anderson's hard and fast 90-100 pitch limit is probably a good thing too, much as I hate it sometimes.

#24 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,975 posts

Posted 05 August 2014 - 10:28 AM

If a guy comes up later than many think and struggles, were the fans wrong?

Only if the fans claimed the guy wouldn't struggle, and I don't think many fans here have made such claims.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Meyer or May struggle like Gibson did in 2013 -- but hopefully they would also then have a clear path to winning a rotation spot next spring and being ready to contribute (if only as a league-average starter) from day 1 of next season, like Gibson too.

  • mike wants wins likes this

#25 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 4,756 posts

Posted 05 August 2014 - 05:35 PM

I'm not sure I'd compare Gibson and Blackburn, their minor league stats say they have little in common. Gibson could get the Ks in the minors (8/9 IP). That hasn't translated to the majors... yet.

#26 Monkeypaws

Monkeypaws

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 716 posts

Posted 04 September 2014 - 07:31 PM

I'm not too worried about Gibson; this is a process, and he seems to be out of gas out of gas at this point. I like him going out there, getting stronger by extending himself. If he can top 160 IP this season, and keep a .500 record, and an ERA under 4.5, I expect he will do better next season.

 

He'll likely never be an ace, but I would like to see the Twins build some continuity in their rotation, and I think he has a place in it as a solid 3-4 guy.




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: kyle gibson, rick anderson, gardy, options, tj surgery