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Speed vs Power

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#1 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 01:39 PM

Most team goes one or the other & the good teams have a nice mix of both....current Twins have neither. Twins rank 23rd in steals with 21, 26th in attempts with 28. Powerwise... 28th in HRs w/28, 27th in TBs w/524. What are the Twins & what are they lookin towards in the future. 2011 22nd in SBs w/92......2010 26th in SB w/68....09 18th w/85.....2008 12th w/102.....07 9th w/102 2011 28th in HRs w/103....2010 19th in HR w/149...09 13th w/172...2008 29th w/111.....07 29th w/111 We are as slow as we are powerless at plate. Gardy has the rep as a guy who likes to run, but he doesnt. We have gotten slower every year and have never really improved the power...which we never had. Everyday players needs 1 of 5 attributes IMO......power/speed/BAve or OBP/defense/flexibility.....more the better We have way too many with just 1 or even none.

#2 Seth Stohs

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 02:01 PM

I don't associate speed with stolen bases at all. I do associate it with base running, 1st to third on singles, score from first on a double, etc. Also, range on defense regardless of position. I'm not saying that the Twins are good overall in those categories either. If Ben Revere was playing every day to this point in the season, you could probably add another 15-20 stolen bases already.

#3 nicksaviking

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 02:29 PM

I just read an article that mentioned the Twins have the lowest OPS by their firstbaseman in the AL. I thought, Wow, Parmelee must have really dragged that figure down because, though not playing to their potential, Mauer and Morneau don't have flat out awful OPS's. As it turned out, neither M or M do have terrible OPS's....except when they play 1B. Morneau's OBP when at 1B has been .683 compared to .842 when he's the DH. Mauer has an OBP of .951 as DH and .883 as C but a dismal .569 when he's at 1B. What is going on here? Does no one want to play the easiest position on the field?

#4 IdahoPilgrim

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 02:34 PM

What is going on here? Does no one want to play the easiest position on the field?


Didn't you see the movie Moneyball? "It's incredibly hard."

#5 Alex

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 02:46 PM

Most team goes one or the other & the good teams have a nice mix of both....current Twins have neither.

Twins rank 23rd in steals with 21, 26th in attempts with 28.
Powerwise... 28th in HRs w/28, 27th in TBs w/524.
What are the Twins & what are they lookin towards in the future.

2011 22nd in SBs w/92......2010 26th in SB w/68....09 18th w/85.....2008 12th w/102.....07 9th w/102
2011 28th in HRs w/103....2010 19th in HR w/149...09 13th w/172...2008 29th w/111.....07 29th w/111

We are as slow as we are powerless at plate. Gardy has the rep as a guy who likes to run, but he doesnt. We have gotten slower every year and have never really improved the power...which we never had.

Everyday players needs 1 of 5 attributes IMO......power/speed/BAve or OBP/defense/flexibility.....more the better
We have way too many with just 1 or even none.


In order to steal, players do need to reach base and I think most of our players with speed have a problem with that except Span.

#6 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 02:47 PM

I don't associate speed with stolen bases at all. I do associate it with base running, 1st to third on singles, score from first on a double, etc. Also, range on defense regardless of position. I'm not saying that the Twins are good overall in those categories either. If Ben Revere was playing every day to this point in the season, you could probably add another 15-20 stolen bases already.

I agree that base running is separate from speed.....but this team doesnt have any team speed.
DSpan is considered one of the fastest guys on this team & that is enuff said (till Revere gets here). The Twins now play station to station. Speed helps to turn a single into a double & double into triple BUT they dont do that as reflected in the low TBases of the team.
Im also a believer that you wont see Revere steal as many bases as he can as Gardy just isnt the running mgr he is given credit for.
This is a powerless team & they need to advance guys via SBs so they dont need 3 singles to score a run IMO.

#7 J-Dog Dungan

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 02:51 PM

Although, according to Moneyball, stealing isn't always worth it with the % of guys who get thrown out.

#8 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 02:56 PM

I am a huge fan of moneyball & although they were adament about SBs being a bad move.......we dont have the power to back up NOT running.

#9 nicksaviking

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 03:29 PM

Plus it was always a convenient exuse for the A's considering they didn't have base stealers at the time. Coco Crisp lead the lead the league in steals last year.

#10 stringer bell

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 04:25 PM

Good topic, but I totally disagree with the original take. Measuring speed by stolen bases is foolhardy. The Twins' low number of SB the past two years has more to do with bad pitching than it does with raw speed--you don't want to risk an out when you're behind by several runs--and besides that, one needs to get aboard in order to run. Currently, the team has several guys with plus speed--Carroll, Casilla, Mastroianni, Komatsu, Revere, and Span. Dozier also is a candidate to steal some bases. That is plenty of speed for a MLB team. I don't disagree that the team lacks power. My gripe with the players that the Twins have is, as a group, they don't have many that have power and speed. Power threats Morneau, Doumit, Willingham are legitimately slow on the bases and Doumit and Willingham display limited range as outfielders. Plouffe would qualify as average speed, but his inexperience probably limits his defensive range in the outfield. Of the speed guys I listed, only one has hit a home run in the 43 games--Dozier has a pair--otherwise there is a decided lack of homers and extra base hits.

#11 asmus_ndsu

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 04:58 PM

I agree that stolen bases are a bad way to judge speed. Speed is one of those things that have a large impact on the game but comes with a great ammount of intangibles, so we get stuck trying to improperly judge it with stats like stolen bases and fielding percentages. Take a look at revere for instance. His speed is super effective not because he steals bases but because of the potential he has to take an extra base. This will wreak havoc on a pitchers focus on throwing the next strike and can change the others team strategy on how to play the next several batters when he gets a hit or is on base.

#12 asmus_ndsu

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 05:07 PM

I am a huge fan of moneyball & although they were adament about SBs being a bad move.......we dont have the power to back up NOT running.


The moneyball approach did have a thing for power but equally has enthusasum for obp (ultimately ops). ultimately a team is buying bases and runs per number of outs. It also would also view stolen bases like a potential sacrifice. Sacrifices (including sac flys, bunts etc..) are counterproductive and unecessary because it brings forth an out. Bringing this back to speed... Speed has the potential to elimate sacrifices and other outs like double plays. A bunt where the batter reaches is way more productive than a sacrifice bunt.

Edited by asmus_ndsu, 24 May 2012 - 05:13 PM.


#13 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 05:25 PM

Good topic, but I totally disagree with the original take. Measuring speed by stolen bases is foolhardy. The Twins' low number of SB the past two years has more to do with bad pitching than it does with raw speed--you don't want to risk an out when you're behind by several runs--and besides that, one needs to get aboard in order to run. Currently, the team has several guys with plus speed--Carroll, Casilla, Mastroianni, Komatsu, Revere, and Span. Dozier also is a candidate to steal some bases. That is plenty of speed for a MLB team. I don't disagree that the team lacks power. My gripe with the players that the Twins have is, as a group, they don't have many that have power and speed. Power threats Morneau, Doumit, Willingham are legitimately slow on the bases and Doumit and Willingham display limited range as outfielders. Plouffe would qualify as average speed, but his inexperience probably limits his defensive range in the outfield. Of the speed guys I listed, only one has hit a home run in the 43 games--Dozier has a pair--otherwise there is a decided lack of homers and extra base hits.


when starting the thread, I was very aware of the SBs being down due to the poor last couple yrs.....thats why I posted the #s from the last few yrs.
With the lack of power is why Im on the lack of SB kick.
EX. Casilla has ony 6 SBs this yr & when he's on first with 2 out, Carroll out.....gets frustrating not seeing him attempt to get to 2B.
We play such a conservative, station to station type of boring ball.....typical of the organizations beliefs tho. Dont see us becoming relevant again till we take an offensive approach.

#14 stringer bell

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 05:27 PM

Stolen base percentage has to be over 70% to be a positive. Some say that the percentage has to be even higher--perhaps as much as 80%. I would go with the lower number because included in that number are failed hit and runs and lefthander pickoffs. Denard Span hasn't been an asset on the bases, especially since he has been among the leaders in being picked off. Revere has the potential to be an offensive weapon on the bases and Casilla's percentage has been high in his career.

#15 asmus_ndsu

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 05:46 PM

when starting the thread, I was very aware of the SBs being down due to the poor last couple yrs.....thats why I posted the #s from the last few yrs.
With the lack of power is why Im on the lack of SB kick.
EX. Casilla has ony 6 SBs this yr & when he's on first with 2 out, Carroll out.....gets frustrating not seeing him attempt to get to 2B.
We play such a conservative, station to station type of boring ball.....typical of the organizations beliefs tho. Dont see us becoming relevant again till we take an offensive approach.


Im sorry but the stats posted seem like 2 random pieces to a much bigger puzzle. The way i look at those stats is not that the team is less successful because they are playing less agressive or have slower runners, but when the twins are playing better offensive ball overall their going to get all together more hits, sb opportunities, extra base hits, HRs et... And will win more games. Plus our pitching wasnt this god awful. What good is a stolen base with 2 outs if the next guy cant get on base himself? What may be more relevant is seeing the stats for our hitters with risp vs previous years. The yankees dont win games because of the ammount of stolen bases and HRs they get its because they have overal good timely offense

#16 Alex

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 06:14 PM

I'd also agree that I have no problem with fewer attempts. Getting caught has one of the biggest negatives in run expectations while success does not add much. That's not to say its never worthwhile.

#17 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 06:46 PM

Casilla gets on.....steals a base & SCORES when Carroll hits, what else, a single......novel approach:)

#18 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 07:06 PM

I don't associate speed with stolen bases at all. I do associate it with base running, 1st to third on singles, score from first on a double, etc. Also, range on defense regardless of position. I'm not saying that the Twins are good overall in those categories either. If Ben Revere was playing every day to this point in the season, you could probably add another 15-20 stolen bases already.


While Ive said also that I agree that speed isnt necessarily SBs......MN ranks in extra bases taken****source Baseball Reference
MN is 11th of 14 in AL in XBT with 36%......AL Ave is 39%
MN is 28th of 30 in MLB in XBT with 36%...MLB Ave is 41% (NL Average is 42%)
they are bad basestealing team as well as a bad baserunning team. Mix that in with no power & you have the MN
Twins.

Powerwise....MN also ranks 13th of 14th in AL in ISO with .123 with a league average of .154 (Willinham/Morneau/Doumit/Plouffe/Revere only ones above league average) & 26th in MLB (ave of .146).
Doesnt have to be homers or steals to be successful

Edited by greengoblinrulz, 24 May 2012 - 07:17 PM.


#19 nicksaviking

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 08:32 PM

Moneyball didn't take into account that a team might employ a left handed #3 hitter that slaps a high percentage of his balls to LF which prohibits runners on first from moving past 2nd.

#20 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 24 May 2012 - 09:45 PM

again....a player with no power or no speed