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Article: Trade Candidate: Brian Duensing

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 12:42 PM

The Trade Deadline is fast approaching. Teams have until Thursday to make moves without needing to worry about waivers. One name that has not been mentioned much is Brian Duensing.The Trade Deadline is fast approaching. Teams have until Thursday to make moves without needing to worry about waivers. On these pages, we have looked at the trade candidacies of Kurt Suzuki, Kevin Correia and Josh Willingham. One of our writers was ready to post one on Kendrys Morales, but he was traded to Seattle moments before the article was set to be posted here.

One name that has not been mentioned much is Brian Duensing. The left-hander is in his second consecutive season as a full-time reliever. Previous to that, he had been given a couple of opportunities to start, to mixed results.
Duensing is putting up some terrific numbers this year, maybe even surprisingly so. In 40 games, he has a 2.27 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He has been charged with a run in just five of those outings. He’s been even better of late. He has gone nine consecutive outings without allowing a run. He has given up just one run over his past 16 games (15.1 innings).

One of the reasons he struggled as a starter was because he really struggled against right-handed hitters. This year, right-handers are hitting .244/.330/.397 (.727) off of him. Left-handers are hitting just .231/.268/.292 (.560) against him. You notice more of a split when looking at his strikeout and walk rates. He has struck out 13.6% of right-handed batters and walked 11.3%. Against lefties, he has struck out 19.4% while walking just 4.2%

Relief pitchers tend to be dealt in July to teams looking for one more piece. Though Duensing’s name hasn’t been mentioned in rumors like some others (like Tony Sipp), his production this year could make him an option for some teams.

WHY TRADE HIM

Relief pitchers do get traded at the deadline, and often fetch more at that time than other times in the season. If Terry Ryan is fielding phone calls about Duensing and gets offered a couple of mid-level prospects, he would have to consider it.

The Twins do have other left-handers in the bullpen and more in the minor leagues. Glen Perkins isn’t going anywhere, and Caleb Thielbar has put up very solid numbers in his first two seasons in the big leagues. In Rochester, Edgar Ibarra is pitching well and is on the 40 man roster. Aaron Thompson is a former first-round pick who has pitched a little bit in the big leagues. He’s pitched well the last two seasons in Rochester. And don’t forget that many relief pitchers in the big leagues, including Duensing, were starters in the minor leagues. Logan Darnell and Kris Johnson could fit this role in time as well.

WHY KEEP HIM

He’s only making $2 million. As a left-handed reliever who doesn’t strike out a ton, he likely won’t ever make more than $3 million a season, maybe as early as next year in his final year of arbitration. He’s been good for a while now. That said, there are a lot of left-handed relievers that last a long time. The Twins could also sign him to a contract extension.

He is also one of the guys who has been with the organization a long time. Although he’s not the big name, he is a core guy in the bullpen and in the organization and in the Twins community.

WHO NEEDS HIM

The Braves are looking for a left-handed reliever, but there are always teams looking for lefties, and any bullpen improvement, for the pennant race.

SUMMARY

Brian Duensing has been very good in his role for the Minnesota Twins this season. He has a year of arbitration left before he becomes a free agent. Relievers often bring back good value at the trade deadline, so it is a move that must be considered.

YOUR TURN

What should the Twins do with Brian Duensing ? Trade him? Sign him to a two-year extension to buy out a year of free agency? Let him play out his contract and see what happens? What do you think?

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#2 beckmt

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 12:51 PM

Do not see a reason to move him unless the offer is good.  I would guess about 25% unless TR feels he has better options coming up.  Will he be here 2 years from now, I would guess not, so moving him for the right offer is in the Twins best interest.


#3 Dman

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 12:59 PM

I like Brian but if they can get something meaningful for him then I would trade him.  We have younger guys that appear ready to take on that role and we might as well bring up younger arms with the core group that is coming up.  As beckmt mentioned there is no urgency to trade him.  Only if a team was willing to overpay would I move him.


#4 jimbo92107

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 01:28 PM

Of course you trade him if the return is good. You could even include Duensing in a package deal for Suzuki. Two good players currently performing at a high level for one or two top-20 prospects. Orioles? They could use a good catcher, and every team can use another good lefty reliever.

 

Twins need a fire sale, quick. I'd dump most of this team, including Joe Mauer, whose bat doesn't fit at 1st base unless he's banging doubles off the Green Monster in Boston. Too bad Mauer has a no-trade clause, but he might okay a trade to the Red Sox, where his average would go back up to about .370 the rest of his career.


#5 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 01:55 PM

Minor quibble, he's a full time reliever, not a full time starter :)

 

Deunsing should be a sweetner to any trade.  Package him with Suzuki to Baltimore to get Bundy /BYTO


#6 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 02:14 PM

I trade him for whatever I can get. It opens up a lefty pen spot for Darnell, which, in turn, opens a rotation spot for Meyer or May. Next year, Darnell can do what Duensing does for a fraction of the price.
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#7 mike wants wins

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 02:15 PM

What jeremy said for sure.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#8 drock2190

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 02:42 PM

Minor quibble, he's a full time reliever, not a full time starter :)

 

Deunsing should be a sweetner to any trade.  Package him with Suzuki to Baltimore to get Bundy /BYTO

Uhhh...thats not happening. Their GM would be fired if he traded Bundy for a 32 year old catcher


#9 jorgenswest

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 03:19 PM

There are 52 left handed relievers (excluding closers) that have pitched at least 20 games. Of the 52, Brian Duensing ranks 36th in FIP at 3.87 and 44th in K rate at 16.3%. Andrew Miller is at 1.82 and 39.6%. Andrew Miller will get a good return. Between Miller and Duensing are other left handed relievers on selling teams. Duensing will be attractive if he has a low cost of acquisition. The acquiring team will offer a player that they would need to take off the 40 to make room for Duensing. Should the Twins trade Duensing for that player?

#10 Dman

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 03:53 PM

There are 52 left handed relievers (excluding closers) that have pitched at least 20 games. Of the 52, Brian Duensing ranks 36th in FIP at 3.87 and 44th in K rate at 16.3%. Andrew Miller is at 1.82 and 39.6%. Andrew Miller will get a good return. Between Miller and Duensing are other left handed relievers on selling teams. Duensing will be attractive if he has a low cost of acquisition. The acquiring team will offer a player that they would need to take off the 40 to make room for Duensing. Should the Twins trade Duensing for that player?

 

 

I hate it when you put in those terms as all hope get's crushed.  I think you are right and that is likely why Duensing wasn't traded and doesn't come up in trade talks except on this board.  Compared to the competition he just isn't much of an upgrade.  All competing teams have 40 man issue's so getting prospects back that are not on the 40 man is going to be tough.  Trading is harder than it looks.


#11 TheLeviathan

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 03:58 PM

Uhhh...thats not happening. Their GM would be fired if he traded Bundy for a 32 year old catcher

 

But we included Brian Duensing....therefore by the Duensin Rule we get anyone we want!

 

Having to find a replacement for him and the Duensing Rule is a clear reason to keep him.

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#12 Brandon

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 04:04 PM

I trade him for whatever I can get. It opens up a lefty pen spot for Darnell, which, in turn, opens a rotation spot for Meyer or May. Next year, Darnell can do what Duensing does for a fraction of the price.

 

I don't think his salary is an impediment on anything we are trying to do as a team.  We have more than enough salary cap space.  If you want to clear space then we could deal Darnell instead so we can bring up the prospects.  We will want veterans with the next wave of players and he may be one of the ones we want to keep.  I am personally indifferent here as I like our bullpen and am not in a hurry to trade anyone from there. 


#13 mike wants wins

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 04:09 PM

It is not about salary. Back of the pen guys should be fungible assets you can option up and down to AAA. This is one reason they have issues, imo, they do not manage the roster properly.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#14 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 05:33 PM

I trade him for whatever I can get. It opens up a lefty pen spot for Darnell, which, in turn, opens a rotation spot for Meyer or May. Next year, Darnell can do what Duensing does for a fraction of the price.


I think Darnell has potential to be a decent starter. Other than maybe a cup of coffee, I don't think the pen is his destination. As for left specialist, I'd think Ryan Orouke (or however you spell his last name), is going to be that guy...

#15 JustinCB

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 05:40 PM

Minor quibble, he's a full time reliever, not a full time starter :)

 

Deunsing should be a sweetner to any trade.  Package him with Suzuki to Baltimore to get Bundy /BYTO

Baltimore is gonna give up Bundy for Suzuki/Duensing?  You must be high.


#16 stringer bell

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 06:33 PM

Duensing is a nice bullpen piece.  Any team short on left handers arms could be interested in his services.  He has shown to be durable and versatile, so that would up his value a bit more than the raw numbers. 


#17 DocBauer

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 06:58 PM

Kind of an oxymoron here, but I think Duensing has solid value as a young 30yo reliever with a decent track record, but, I don't think he has tremendous value in a trade scenario. While Darnell has received only one ML start, and has enough stuff and milb track record to deserve more looks, the one thing that has been encouraging is his SO's thus far, in AAA and his couple appearances with the Twins. While he didn't pitch very well in his first start, he still managed to SO 7. Ibarra and O'Rourke could definitely be options, maybe Thompson, as early as next season, I'm in no hurry to trade a cost controlled, solid LH reliever. If the Twins continue the trend of a 7 man bullpen in 2015, (and I long for the day when the rotation is strong enough to drop back to 6 for another bench player), I could see the Twins making room next season for a 3rd LHRP to go along with Fien, say...Swarzak, and the best option of Pressly, Achter, Tonkin and lerhaps Pryor.

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#18 snepp

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 07:48 PM

Uhhh...thats not happening. Their GM would be fired if he traded Bundy for a 32 year old catcher

The joke, you missed it.

 

 

Baltimore is gonna give up Bundy for Suzuki/Duensing?  You must be high.

Ditto the previous reply.

Edited by snepp, 28 July 2014 - 07:49 PM.

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#19 goulik

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 09:58 PM

I would trade any of the lefty relievers and keep what the other teams don't want whether its Duensing, Thompson, Ibarra, Johnson, Darnell, or even Thielbar. We cannot keep half of them so trade what you can and bring up prospects. That said, I'd rather keep Duensing and Thielbar and convince the other teams to take the others in trades. We can afford their low cost and they are already doing the job. (And Thielbar is a local)

#20 John Bonnes

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 05:42 AM

I think he's going to cost $3M+ next year, and at that price, I'm not sure the Twins will keep him. So why not? We have a few left-handed options in rochester that they could sort through in August and September: Kirs Johnson, Sean Gilmartin, Aaron Thompson, Edgar Ibarra. 

 

Get a low level guy that the Twins scouts are a little higher on than most. This is the kind of trade at which Terry Ryan usually excels. 

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#21 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 06:12 AM

Baltimore is gonna give up Bundy for Suzuki/Duensing?  You must be high.

 

That was an inside joke between those of us who used to post at BYTO.  Duensing was always added as a sweetner for some pretty ridiculous proposals. 


#22 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 06:18 AM

I think he's going to cost $3M+ next year, and at that price, I'm not sure the Twins will keep him.


That's where I'm at.

#23 spycake

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 09:33 AM

Get a low level guy that the Twins scouts are a little higher on than most. This is the kind of trade at which Terry Ryan usually excels. 

I think the days of Hector Carrasco for Lew Ford have passed, even for Trader Terry.

 

Although come to think of it, we could probably still get Lew Ford for Duensing, assuming we can convince the Long Island Ducks to give up their hitting coach. :)


#24 tobi0040

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 10:57 AM

I think he's going to cost $3M+ next year, and at that price, I'm not sure the Twins will keep him. So why not? We have a few left-handed options in rochester that they could sort through in August and September: Kirs Johnson, Sean Gilmartin, Aaron Thompson, Edgar Ibarra. 

 

Get a low level guy that the Twins scouts are a little higher on than most. This is the kind of trade at which Terry Ryan usually excels. 

The guy has been up and down too.....ERA in the 2's, 3.98 last year, mid 5's the year prior.  If we can trade him at peak value and get an upside player....works for me.


#25 ashburyjohn

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 11:30 AM

...We have younger guys that appear ready to take on that role and we might as well bring up younger arms with the core group that is coming up.  As beckmt mentioned there is no urgency to trade him. 

 

In terms of major league performance there is no urgency, but when considering the stewardship of team resources I believe the urgency is high.  Duensing could be a prime non-tender candidate this off-season, so if you get nothing for him now, you may get nothing at all.

 

40-man issues plague this team and whatever is the best non-Rule-5-eligible prospect that can be obtained should be accepted ASAP.

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#26 Cody Christie

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 12:00 PM

The Pirates are looking for a left-handed relief pitcher. Let's make a deal.

 

https://twitter.com/...173015601840128


#27 Dman

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 12:20 PM

In terms of major league performance there is no urgency, but when considering the stewardship of team resources I believe the urgency is high.  Duensing could be a prime non-tender candidate this off-season, so if you get nothing for him now, you may get nothing at all.

 

40-man issues plague this team and whatever is the best non-Rule-5-eligible prospect that can be obtained should be accepted ASAP.

  Yeah I hear ya. Something is better than nothing.  I think it is just hard for me to comprehend that we would trade a player and likely get a lesser player in return and call that good.   I get that the Twins likely would gain flexibility on the roster and some salary relief and they have players ready to step in but its just hard to see it that way.  Also I don't think we will get someone not on the other teams 40 man as they would likely have to DFA someone to add Duensing. If that is the case then what is the point?  It seems like clearing the 40 man for lower level prospects is not as easy as it seems.


#28 tobi0040

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 12:44 PM

The Pirates are looking for a left-handed relief pitcher. Let's make a deal.

 

https://twitter.com/...173015601840128

I am guessing the Twins are done trading players to the Pirates, forever.


#29 ashburyjohn

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 12:56 PM

It seems like clearing the 40 man for lower level prospects is not as easy as it seems.

That's why I view it as a priority. :)


#30 iTwins

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 01:07 PM

The Pirates are looking for a left-handed relief pitcher. Let's make a deal.

 

https://twitter.com/...173015601840128

 

Maybe we could get Vance Worley for him. (Oops)

 

There might be a long term strategy there. Twins acquire pitcher X, pitcher X fails. Pitcher X subsequently traded to the Pirates. Pittsburgh fixes pitcher X - Twins reacquire said pitcher.

 

I'm kidding, of course, but count me in favor of moving Duensing before the deadline, especially if the notion of DFA-ing at season's end is even on the table. Move him for value now, if possible.




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