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Article: Twins should go all in on Greinke

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#1 Cody Christie

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 07:36 AM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...l-in-on-Greinke

#2 Thrylos

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 07:55 AM

Pavano earns $9.0 million, and Marquis signed this past offseason for $3.0 million. If you add all of those up with the $6.5 million lost on Scott Baker this year, the Twins will have quite the chunk of change to spend on pitching for 2013.


Yes. but I don't think they should spend it all in one place :) I think that Greinke has one exceptional season in the AL and a couple of above average seasons. His NL numbers are better but that is NL. Again: Only a single All Star season, only a single season in which he got votes for Cy Young (yes he won it that season.) But just a season. He is not Santana or Sabathia or Pedro. Not even close. And he will get CJ Wilson money. Someone will give him a 7 year 150 mil contract, and I hope it's not the Twins. (Pretty sure they will not be actually and thankfully.)
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#3 Boom Boom

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 08:02 AM

I like Grienke, and the Twins also like Grienke. If they were one good pitcher away, like they were in 2007-2010, I'd say go for it. But they're not that close to competing.

#4 Shane Wahl

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 08:02 AM

Greinke is getting 5 years minimum ($90 minimum) and probably 6 years and $110 million. And that's crazy. The Twins are more likely to go after a 2 or 3 year deal, as well they probably should.

#5 gunnarthor

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 08:12 AM

Grienke will get paid a lot of money. Both fangraphs and MLBtraderumors have had posts up pointing to Cain's extension as starting points for both Hamels and Grienke. I don't think Grienke gets quite that much but it'll be close. Anibal Sanchez is another pitcher I'd like the Twins to go after. I think he'll be a bit cheaper than Grienke.

#6 mike wants wins

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 08:16 AM

If you never pay market rates (salary or years), you never get great players. Pretty simple rule of supply and demand, really. I don't care which very good to great pitcher it is, but I'd like one of them signed here. I don't think, for one minute, that Ryan will do it though. They'll continue on the Pavano/Marquis track, imo. So, I'm setting my expectatons super, super, super low for next offseason.
Lighten up Francis....

#7 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 08:17 AM

"Liriano makes $5.5 million, Pavano earns $9.0 million, and Marquis signed this past offseason for $3.0 million. If you add all of those up with the $6.5 million lost on Scott Baker this year, the Twins will have quite the chunk of change to spend on pitching for 2013." You can also add $4.75 from Capps and with that the Twins have just over 28 million to spend. I really only see two major holes on the roster at 3B and SP. Greinke and A. Sanchez are the most attractive options available at SP and no potential free agents at 3B look like an upgrade (except Polanco who has a mutual option). I think going after a star pitcher makes a lot of sense for the Twins and they need to sign someone to get the fans excited for next season. The Twins have a lot of money coming off the books in 2013 (Morneau/14mil+Nishioka/3mil+Carroll/3.75m=$20.75mil) too so overspending now isn't terrible, especially if it's a 3-4 year contract.

Edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse, 21 May 2012 - 08:19 AM.


#8 jmlease1

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 08:43 AM

I would prefer the Twins go big on Grienke and sign a modest FA for the back of the rotation then split the money more evenly on 2 starters with less ability, just this once. Why? Because I think the Twins can actually sign Grienke, who has elite ability, which won't happen too often. I think he'd look at the Twins and see a lot of things that would make it an attractive place to play for him (ballpark, market, team concepts, etc.) and I suspect that will be more important to him than anything else. A rotation of Grienke, Gibson, Diamond, Blackburn, and Free Agent X with Hendricks/Walters/Swarzak/Duensing as the alternatives for if/when someone fails would be a nice base to work from.

#9 Thrylos

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 08:47 AM

I really only see two major holes on the roster at 3B and SP.


So the Twins are a SP and a third baseman away from being WS champions in 2013? Competing for the division? or for getting to .500?

As is, the Twins are about 3-4 SPs away, 2-3 pen arms away and 4-5 position players (RF, 2B, 3B, 1B, DH for starters) away from having an elite team and about half as much for having a competitive team. Doumit is gone after next season.

It is not just an arm and a bat that would turn this team around...
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#10 Shane Wahl

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 08:50 AM

I would argue that Ryan Dempster and Randy Wolf are the two most likely for the Twins to sign, and neither will garner more than 3 years (likely 2). They could probably get both for about $23 million a year for two years.

#11 Boom Boom

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 09:02 AM

So the Twins are a SP and a third baseman away from being WS champions in 2013? Competing for the division? or for getting to .500?

As is, the Twins are about 3-4 SPs away, 2-3 pen arms away and 4-5 position players (RF, 2B, 3B, 1B, DH for starters) away from having an elite team and about half as much for having a competitive team. Doumit is gone after next season.

It is not just an arm and a bat that would turn this team around...



This is my point - signing Grienke would be one of those "put you over the top" moves that the Twins were so hesitant to make while they were a very good team. It would have made a lot of sense a couple years ago. But the Twins need to commit to rebuilding now, and handing out big contracts at this point would be a mistake.

#12 nicksaviking

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 09:20 AM

Unless people think the Twins will be able to win without an ace, the only way to get one is by trade or free agency and the Twins don't have a whole lot to trade any longer. The Twins only drafted and developed a true ace two times in their history, and none since Frank Viola. Next year may not be the ideal time to spend on an ace as the team is still a couple years away, but front end starters are becoming more and more rare on the free agent market as teams are becoming wiser about extending young arms. They could pass and hope to get a big arm in 2014, but hoping Tim Lincicum, Josh Johnson or Johan Santana all make it to free agency and are still healthy may be more of a long shot.

#13 ashburyjohn

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 09:29 AM

Doumit is gone after next season.


A small point: Doumit is signed only through this season, according to both Cot's Contracts and baseball-reference.com

#14 Steve Penz

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 09:32 AM

If you never pay market rates (salary or years), you never get great players. Pretty simple rule of supply and demand, really. I don't care which very good to great pitcher it is, but I'd like one of them signed here. I don't think, for one minute, that Ryan will do it though. They'll continue on the Pavano/Marquis track, imo. So, I'm setting my expectatons super, super, super low for next offseason.


I wish I did not agree. We need to roll the dice and overpay. I hope they do this for Greinke or another. He is 28. I think it might be worth it.

#15 jeffk

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 09:34 AM

If you never pay market rates (salary or years), you never get great players. Pretty simple rule of supply and demand, really. I don't care which very good to great pitcher it is, but I'd like one of them signed here.


The Twins have no rotation to speak of. It would be a much better value for them to try to pick up several average starters than one great one. Otherwise it will be just like this year 4/5 days.

#16 mike wants wins

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 09:56 AM

You have to pay market rates for average pitchers too. Will any be available? Will they sign two of them? That was really the point of the post.
Lighten up Francis....

#17 wolf eyes

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 10:14 AM

This would be a horrible use of money. Even if he adds 10 wins, that probably isn't enough to get this team to the playoffs. The Twins should not be inking any massive, multi-year contracts until they're actually in a position to compete, i.e. hopefully when some of their prospects in the lower leagues have developed.

#18 Siehbiscuit

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 10:16 AM

The Twins have a few talented arms in the minors that can be up next year or by at least 2014. Guys like Benson, Wimmers, Hendricks, possibly Appel and we have Diamond. All of these guys will cost the Twins less than a million dollars for at least the first three years of service. Grienke (18M), Benson (600K) and Diamond (600K) as a top 3 and maybe Hendricks, Wimmers or Appel can take the last two spots. If the Twins want a veteran go and get an inexpensive veteran that can be a clubhouse leader as Grienke has been known to be more of a recluse. Get a top end starter, because the depth coming up is at best filled with one number 2 starter and a bunch of 3's, 4's and 5's. An investment in a long-term solution at 3B should be explored as well, because Sano will be up in 2014 and he will not be at 3B for long.

#19 wolf eyes

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 10:20 AM

The Twins have a few talented arms in the minors that can be up next year or by at least 2014. Guys like Benson, Wimmers, Hendricks, possibly Appel and we have Diamond. All of these guys will cost the Twins less than a million dollars for at least the first three years of service. Grienke (18M), Benson (600K) and Diamond (600K) as a top 3 and maybe Hendricks, Wimmers or Appel can take the last two spots. If the Twins want a veteran go and get an inexpensive veteran that can be a clubhouse leader as Grienke has been known to be more of a recluse. Get a top end starter, because the depth coming up is at best filled with one number 2 starter and a bunch of 3's, 4's and 5's. An investment in a long-term solution at 3B should be explored as well, because Sano will be up in 2014 and he will not be at 3B for long.


Benson is an outfielder.

#20 Thrylos

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 10:51 AM

Benson is an outfielder.


I think he means Gibson. Who is actually doing pretty well with his rehab. I think that the Twins will probably need a couple more younger arms for next season or 2014, in addition to Gibson, Wimmers, Hendriks, Hermsen and they can get at least one by trading Span who by 2014 will probably not be in the plans, this season.
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#21 ScottyB

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 10:57 AM

You have to pay market rates for average pitchers too. Will any be available? Will they sign two of them? That was really the point of the post.


Let's face facts - this is the real world. The Twins will not go after Greinke, they have never gone after a free-agent starting pitcher of significance who wasn't their own (i.e. Pavano - who was acquired in a trade originally) except in the case of Morris, and then they were 1 pitcher away from a title, and he was a hometown lad.

Looking at next year's available starting pitchers (by MLB Trade Rumors list), potential $4-$6 million guys who might be decent include Eric Bedard ($4.5M), Joe Saunders ($6M), Brandon McCarthy ($4.275M), Kevin Correia ($4M), or Colby Lewis ($4M). Forget about any guys in the $10M-$12M range and it's pipe dreams to think about Grienke, who would hamstring them even more to go with Mauer's $23M contract.

#22 cr9617

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 11:00 AM

Let's face facts - this is the real world. The Twins will not go after Greinke, they have never gone after a free-agent starting pitcher of significance who wasn't their own (i.e. Pavano - who was acquired in a trade originally) except in the case of Morris, and then they were 1 pitcher away from a title, and he was a hometown lad.

Looking at next year's available starting pitchers (by MLB Trade Rumors list), potential $4-$6 million guys who might be decent include Eric Bedard ($4.5M), Joe Saunders ($6M), Brandon McCarthy ($4.275M), Kevin Correia ($4M), or Colby Lewis ($4M). Forget about any guys in the $10M-$12M range and it's pipe dreams to think about Grienke, who would hamstring them even more to go with Mauer's $23M contract.


Sad but true..

#23 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 11:31 AM

So the Twins are a SP and a third baseman away from being WS champions in 2013? Competing for the division? or for getting to .500?

As is, the Twins are about 3-4 SPs away, 2-3 pen arms away and 4-5 position players (RF, 2B, 3B, 1B, DH for starters) away from having an elite team and about half as much for having a competitive team. Doumit is gone after next season.

It is not just an arm and a bat that would turn this team around...


I'm really saying that I'm satisfied outside of those two positions. SP is a hole, but it is a gaping one. The Twins are about 4 good SP and a decent 3B away from contention for the Central. They would need a lot more star power to reach a WS. It's not just a bat and an arm (like you said), it's several arms and a bat.

#24 mike wants wins

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 11:58 AM

So, the argument from some is to not spend serious money next year. How many years of Mauer's prime are you willing to burn, not being competitive?
Lighten up Francis....

#25 Thrylos

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 12:17 PM

So, the argument from some is to not spend serious money next year. How many years of Mauer's prime are you willing to burn, not being competitive?


I think that they can be competitive next season and they do need to spend some money but they got to spend them smart. And they got to trade everyone they can trade this season who is making more than the minimum (with the exception of Glen Perkins) and or is over 28, to get SP help. Span, Doumit, Pavano, Casilla, Valencia, Blackburn, Capps, Carroll, Morneau etc the list is long. Some of them will bring nothing but some of them do have trade value. Get 2-3 good young arms in, free about $40-50M to spend in 2013 smartly (i.e. not $15-20M/season on a single player) and you got the makings for a contender in 2013.

But of course you got to deal with the biggest issues of this organization, like the front office, the manager and the coaches before you build a team.
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#26 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 12:20 PM

This is my point - signing Grienke would be one of those "put you over the top" moves that the Twins were so hesitant to make while they were a very good team. It would have made a lot of sense a couple years ago. But the Twins need to commit to rebuilding now, and handing out big contracts at this point would be a mistake.


Grienke will get a multi yr deal, so won't he still be around when all the "rebuilding" comes to fruition?

You rebuild by dumping below average players and accumulating above average ones. Some of them have to come from the minors--your own system or someone else's--but not all of them. One of the beauties of young players is that they don't cost much, allowing you to pay more for others. The Twins do not have the pitching in the system to build a rotation capable of winning the central, much less a WS. Those pitchers have to come from somewhere, and these next two drafts will hopefully help, but they represent two lottery tickets.

The Twins, like other smart teams, need to build using every available resource. Skipping free agency is short sighted and cheap, i think the owners can afford it, and if not frankly I don't much care if the Pohlads don't pocket a huge profit every year anyway.

If a team this clearly in need of starting pitching isn't interested in doing what it takes to help itself, why should I as a fan continue to invest my time, money and emotions?

#27 Shane Wahl

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 12:31 PM

I think that they can be competitive next season and they do need to spend some money but they got to spend them smart. And they got to trade everyone they can trade this season who is making more than the minimum (with the exception of Glen Perkins) and or is over 28, to get SP help. Span, Doumit, Pavano, Casilla, Valencia, Blackburn, Capps, Carroll, Morneau etc the list is long. Some of them will bring nothing but some of them do have trade value. Get 2-3 good young arms in, free about $40-50M to spend in 2013 smartly (i.e. not $15-20M/season on a single player) and you got the makings for a contender in 2013.

But of course you got to deal with the biggest issues of this organization, like the front office, the manager and the coaches before you build a team.


Pretty much, yes. Doumit, Capps, and Pavano are almost sure to be traded (three prospects total?). Span too, I guess. Morneau and Blackburn have contracts that won't be wanted at all. Carroll will be retained for next year. Casilla and Valencia I want to do well for two months to be traded, yes. Maybe the Twins get 5 prospects out of this.

#28 CDog

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 12:31 PM

Let's face facts - they have never gone after a free-agent starting pitcher of significance who wasn't their own (i.e. Pavano - who was acquired in a trade originally) except in the case of Morris, and then they were 1 pitcher away from a title, and he was a hometown lad.


It may not change your main point, but as far as facts go...the '91 Twins were not exactly a recent contender that was just 1 pitcher away from a title. They were a last place team (in a 7-team division even) that added a bunch of pieces and had a couple others take huge leaps in their early careers. Which makes the Morris signing stand out as out of the ordinary even more, I think.

#29 Boom Boom

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 12:36 PM

Grienke will get a multi yr deal, so won't he still be around when all the "rebuilding" comes to fruition?

You rebuild by dumping below average players and accumulating above average ones. Some of them have to come from the minors--your own system or someone else's--but not all of them. One of the beauties of young players is that they don't cost much, allowing you to pay more for others. The Twins do not have the pitching in the system to build a rotation capable of winning the central, much less a WS. Those pitchers have to come from somewhere, and these next two drafts will hopefully help, but they represent two lottery tickets.

The Twins, like other smart teams, need to build using every available resource. Skipping free agency is short sighted and cheap, i think the owners can afford it, and if not frankly I don't much care if the Pohlads don't pocket a huge profit every year anyway.

If a team this clearly in need of starting pitching isn't interested in doing what it takes to help itself, why should I as a fan continue to invest my time, money and emotions?


They haven't done much to address the SP in the last five years, and it seems like you're still emotionally invested anyway. :)

I get where you're coming from, but I just don't believe that Grienke himself is the answer. Going "all-in" will require the Twins to sign more players than just Grienke. If they did that, I'd be happy about it, but I also don't want them to throw money at big-time free agents when they're a bad team and become the Seattle Mariners, who are still a bad team and have to ride out bad contracts that keep them from rebuilding properly.

#30 Shaun in Chicago

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 01:34 PM

Butera would be a fairly cheap option for the rotation, right?