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36 replies to this topic
Posted 19 May 2012 - 09:59 PM
mlhouse I understand wanting a few arms to go along with our position players but as one scout put it this might be the weakest college class in the past 20 years. With your drafting strategy, take as many college arms, the best I could see is taking one of Appel/Zimmer/Gaus at #2 and then grabbing Brian Johnson at #32 if he is still around. That would give us two quick moving pitchers who with in 2 years could be our #2/#3 starters. After that though unless a really good college pitcher fell, with the lack of them in this draft hard to see, I just cant find a group that would be worth taking with our first 3-4 picks. Especially with the kind of HS pitching talent that will be around 32/42. Once again as I made a comment above, this draft is weak because of the college talent not the HS talent. If the front office can rearrange some money from mid/later picks we have a chance to score several top end HS pitchers. While they might take longer than two years to get to the bigs they have higher, front of the rotation, type upside.
Posted 19 May 2012 - 11:52 PM
I know Buxton has a high ceiling but to me Correa has a very high ceiling as well and would fit more of a need for the twins. I've heard both sides of the argument that he could stay at ss because he's athletic and has a plus arm or move to 3b because of his size. Either way I like him over Buxton. At 32 there's a couple of different options. Jake Barrett of ASU because he seems like a quick to the majors reliever or develop into a starter. I've also seen some people discuss the possibility of Stryker Trahan falling and being available at 32 which would give the twins a young high school catcher to develop
Posted 20 May 2012 - 12:28 AM
I'm right there with you nfisch22 on Correa. I too prefer him over Buxton for several reasons. He is a year and a half younger, currently already has a better hit tool than Buxton, and even if he ends up moving from SS to 3B that is still a spot of need for us. While Buxton might have a higher ceiling it isn't that much higher and with Correa's current hit tool he seems like a little bit safer bet. Several scouts/experts have pointed out that Correa, like Buxton, has best in class potential. While I agree with you on Correa, I 100% disagree with you on Barrett. I'm ok with Barrett if hefalls to 62 or 72, signs for slot or below slot, but not at 32/42. The high upside HS talent that should be around at 32/42 is just too hard to pass up for a BP arm. Also, if you want a quick to the majors arm there is a decent chance, looking at current mocks, that Brian Johnson might be around (Mike Minor clone). I do agree though if Stryker Trahan falls to 32 he has to be considered for the pick. Even if he has to move from catcher to RF he is already getting Myers comparisons, current top 10 prospect in baseball, for his bat. Players like Trahan, Seager, Elfin, Smoral should be our targets at 32, among other high upside players, not a quick to the majors reliever. Twins need upside and there should be plenty of that at 32.
Posted 20 May 2012 - 07:31 AM
Barrett will likely become a RP. I'd prefer a high-ceiling HS pitcher over Brian Johnson - a guy that screams Nick Blackburn, back-of-the-rotation type-guy. I think the system has a lot of guys that project as 4th or 5th starters (at best) and I'd hate to see #32 become another one of those guys.
Posted 20 May 2012 - 08:08 AM
You mentioned Ty hensley being there at 32. I don't think he will be. He was under-rated going into the season. He is one of my favorites in this draft. I actually goy on him at the PG Memorial tourney where he played for McCullers team the Warriors. He ended up getting MVP pitcher over Weickel and McCullers. I think he was pretty nervous at the Prospect classic where he lost his mechanica and was falling off so I think that hurt him going into the season...but he figured it out. Went 10-0 this year with 111K's in 55.1 INN. Up to 98 pitches at 92-95. Breaking ball is filthy. I haven't heard injury with him, def. not performance, and don't think signability is issue either although HS guys with good grades and 100% rides command more. He has been compared to Matt Cain in many blogs. If we could get him at 32..I would do back flips!
Posted 20 May 2012 - 12:08 PM
Mike Radcliff was on the radio a bit ago on Talkin' Twins. He said the Twins are down to 3 or 4 guys at the beginning of the interview. By the end, he said they were down to 2 or 3 guys. So it must be 2 or 3 guys. He made no inclination as to whether it is a College or Highschool player. But I thought this was almost interesting news. He said the Twins would draft more pitchers than players and it's likely to be like that in upcoming drafts. When he was asked about the new slotting system he gave no clues as to whether they would do things differently. But did say all of their scouts are to be aware of a given player's signing demands.
Posted 20 May 2012 - 12:55 PM
Thanks for that information Kyleb, I missed out on that interview. Most experts have made it clear that one of the guys is Buxton but I wonder who the other two are. Law and Callis made it clear up until last week the Twins were really high on Zimmer but interest had cooled due to the drop in velocity and injury. Zunino, Gaus, Appel, and Giolito are the other guys they have been linked too. With Appel most likely going #1 and Giolito's injury concerns I'm guessing they are down to Buxton, Zunino, and one of Gaus/Zimmer. I had also heard about them looking at adding a lot of pitching in this draft, while the college crop is horrid after the top guys, I see us being able to nab a bunch of great HS arms from 32-72. Ton of high upside HS arms seem to be dropping because of injuries, performance, or signability. With all our picks if we can rearrange some money we might have a chance to grab a few of them. I'm also not really a huge fan of Brian Johnson Nygaard but if the Twins are looking for a quick to the majors starter who will sign for slot he would be the guy in this draft. Law compared him to Mike Minor for better or worse. The reason I put Ty Hensley on the list is because...well one, I'm also a huge fan of his. I would be joining you doing back flips if we landed him at #32. Two, most draft prospect rankings have him in the 20-40 range which talent wise would put him in our reach at #32. Three, most mocks have him in the 20s, a few have him outside of the first round, which would also put him in our reach. Four, did I mention I'm also a huge fan of his and it might be a little wishful thinking? Finally, the one thing draft experts have made clear about this draft is that nothing is clear on how people will draft. After the first 8-10 picks who can go where seems more up in the air then ever.
Posted 20 May 2012 - 01:01 PM
I will agree Barrett at 32 is a reach. The reason I like him is that he seems like he could anchor the back end of the bullpen. And I don't see Capps being around in a year or two. I will also agree a high upside high school pitcher would be a great fit at 32 and 42. At some point in their first 3 picks the twins are going to have to go with pitching as its our biggest need
Posted 21 May 2012 - 08:23 AM
That is a very good article, thank you. I think the Twins perhaps should reverse what they have generally done in the past. Instead of college pitchers (after the #2 pick) and high school position players, they should look at college hitters and high school pitchers. Gleeman has said that anyone who doesn't draft the BPA is "almost an idiot" and I understand the argument for taking the BPA. But I don't think it is clear, ESPECIALLY when we are talking about a high school player (5 tools or 4??) who the BPA is in the first place. God, just from the three college pitchers--which is the best? It makes me laugh when I hear BPA in a draft of so many players, especially when comparing HS and college players. When I say that "need" is important I am not talking simply about the current Twins, but about the organization as a whole, up and down. Good starting pitchers, catchers, and third basemen are almost nowhere to be found in a system that generally doesn't trade away prospects, so bringing in players to provide depth where there is none based on need is not idiotic.
Posted 21 May 2012 - 08:34 AM
Just a reminder, at least one scout thinks Buxton is not the best OF prospect he's seen this year, so it is not clear cut that he's the best player available. The scout is the other one on ESPN, not Law....
What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.
Posted 21 May 2012 - 06:02 PM
Furthermore, what defines "best player available"? Simply the highest ceiling? What about the most likely outcome, if we are in the business of making predictions about who will be the actual best player?
BPA is the smart thing to do with a high pick like this. However, that BPA better damn well be... Clearly... Without question the best player available if he is not one of the college arms. If the Twins take this toolsy Buxton and they wait 5 years for him to be Plouffe like. It will go down as the worst possible miss drafting into perhaps the only organizational strength at a time when they cant screw around. As opposed to drafting College pitching that could be on the roster in 2 to 3 years and fills perhaps the worst organizational hole in perhaps all MLB organizations.
Bottom line if they miss with a college arm... It would be at least forgivable. Cuz they tried. Miss with Buxton and you risk a longer period of mediocre or below. Pitching is the way back kids.
Weak draft or not... This is an important draft... Those scouts better be focused.
Posted 21 May 2012 - 08:27 PM
Keliy McDaniel is one of the scouts that is helping Law this year, Jason Grey left to work for the Rays, and he feels Almora is a better overall prospect than Buxton. He said he is the best prospect he has seen all year. A head of Buxton, Gausman, and Zunino. John Sickels/Matt Garroich over at minorleagueball.com are both not very high on Buxton either. Does that mean he isn't the best overall prospect from this draft? No. Most of the top experts from baseballamerica, Keith Law of ESPN, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, and several other sites feel Buxton is the clear cut best player of the draft. Now, does that mean he is? Once again, no. IMO the best player in the draft is Correa and the Twins haven't even been linked to him. In the end it doesn't really matter who you, me, Keith Law, Keliy McDaniel, or anyone else feels is the best player but what our scouts think. What I care about is that the Twins take the best player on their board, that hasn't always been the case, whom ever that may be. Obviously it is a lot of fun to debate and talk about but I think Riverbrain nailed it on the head. No matter how weak the draft is, this is a very important draft, and the scouts better not screw it up.
Posted 23 May 2012 - 08:54 PM
Someone posted this on a different site but i'm stealing it. Via Mayo of MLB.com-
Teams will have private workouts as things get a little closer, so they can get a longer look at a player. Case in point: Carlos Correa, currently ranked No. 5 on our Draft Top 100, worked out for the Minnesota Twins. The Twins pick at No. 2 overall. Keep in mind that doesn’t mean he’s suddenly a front-runner there, but they are taking a longer look at the talented shortstop from Puerto Rico.