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If You Had To Bet $50: Will Mauer Lead All Twins Players In Career War?

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#1 Scheherezade

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Posted 27 July 2014 - 09:38 PM

Mauer has a good chance to surpass Puckett this year in career WAR:

 

http://www.fangraphs...ilter=&players=

 

Assuming he ends the year at around 45 WAR, he would be 21.3 WAR behind Harmon for the all-time leader.  

 

If Mauer plays out his 4 remaining contract years and 3 twilight DH years (retiring as a 38 year old), he would have to average around 3 WAR per season to surpass Harmon Killabrew.  Those numbers are well below his WAR average from 2006-2013, but an aging DH/1B may struggle to continue that kind of production.  

 

My guess is that he ends his career with around 60 WAR, second all-time for the Twins behind Harmon and ahead of Rod Carew.  

 

Cheers,

 

Tyler


#2 Badsmerf

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Posted 27 July 2014 - 10:07 PM

I would absolutely take that bet. There is no way Mauer accomplishes that in 4 years. I very much hope the twins can find a better option for dh by that time. Unless Mauer learns to start driving the ball, I will despise his time at 1b for the rest of his time with the twins.
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#3 drock2190

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Posted 27 July 2014 - 10:29 PM

I'm willing to bet that Mauer doesnt hit over 12 homeruns a season for the rest of his career. 

 

I'm just hoping when the Twins get good again offensively, they dont slot Mauer into the 3 hole or the 2 hole. 5th or 6th would be a much better fit.


#4 mike wants wins

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 09:15 AM

No way he passes Harmon.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#5 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 05:44 PM

wonder if the Mauer back to C movement has caught on yet. He'd pair nicely with Pinto and finding a decent 1B will be much easier...

#6 CRArko

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 06:13 PM

wonder if the Mauer back to C movement has caught on yet. He'd pair nicely with Pinto and finding a decent 1B will be much easier...


I think Maddie, Emily, and Maren outvote all of us on that one. I do think he should bring back the sideburns in full force, though.
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#7 gunnarthor

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 06:19 PM

I'd bet the under.


#8 Mike Frasier Law

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 12:04 PM

If I were a betting man (and I am), I would put even money on him passing Carew, but I'd probably have to get odds to bet that he passes Harmon.

 

Interestingly, Baseball-Reference, which calculates WAR differently, has Joe in 6th at 44.9, and has Carew #1 at 63.7, with Killer at 60.5.


#9 StormJH1

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Posted 30 July 2014 - 02:16 PM

I think Maddie, Emily, and Maren outvote all of us on that one. I do think he should bring back the sideburns in full force, though.

 

Well said.  And for all the Mauer criticism, I really don't harbor any ill will about the "retirement from catcher".  I just get baffled when people in the national (and even local) scene talk about Mauer going back to catching.  It will NEVER happen.  They said it will never happen, and they gave a medical reason why they aren't risking it.  He's 31 now and was a mediocre/inconsistent catcher at best the last two years.  His bat wasn't that great this season, but part of the reason for that probably was post-concussion recovery that happened from catching.  He's not catching anymore.

 

As for the WAR question, I hate WAR with a burning passion, but understand that one of the issues of it is that it is a cumulative metric, not an average.  In other words, he has to play long enough at an above replacement level to continue to add it up.  At 1B, that accumulation will slow down quite a bit.