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How Bad is This Rotation?

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18 replies to this topic

#1 alarp33

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Posted 16 May 2012 - 06:25 PM

Of pitchers in MLB who have made at least 6 starts, the Twins have 3 (Liriano 1, Blackburn 2, Marquis 8) of the bottom 8 in ERA. Hendriks started 4 games and has a worse ERA (9.00) than any of them. Pavano is far and away the best with a 5.14 ERA. A lot of the focus has been on the offense recently, but what the hell is the plan with the rotation for the remainder of 2012 and for 2013? I think they will end up trading Pavano for whatever they can get in July. Hendriks will be back at some point, maybe Swarzak, Duensing, Devries get starts at some point. The only thing keeping Marquis here right now is the $3 million, but I'm guessing that will get written off as a sunk cost soon and they will cut ties. What do you realistically propose for 2013? Here would be my hope Gibson Hendriks Brandon McCarthy Ryan Dempster/ Erik Bedard/ Anibel Sanchez Blackburn (by default due to his contract) I think this is semi realistic, and should be a rotation in waayyyy better shape than this year. Plus they'd have Scott Diamond, Anthony Swarzak and others to fill in if needed.

#2 Shane Wahl

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Posted 16 May 2012 - 06:41 PM

I like Ryan Dempster a lot, and they could get him on a two-year deal. I would expect Gibson to be involved, but not until June. Hendriks and Diamond are locks to me. Dempster Hendriks Diamond Blackburn (total disgrace that this will happen) Bromberg

#3 darin617

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Posted 16 May 2012 - 06:43 PM

Twins should have traded for AJ Burnett. Pittsburgh gave up basically nothing for him and NYY paid for most of the contract.

#4 alarp33

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Posted 16 May 2012 - 06:53 PM

I like Ryan Dempster a lot, and they could get him on a two-year deal. I would expect Gibson to be involved, but not until June. Hendriks and Diamond are locks to me.

Dempster
Hendriks
Diamond
Blackburn (total disgrace that this will happen)
Bromberg


Assuming Gibson can make 5 starts or so this year at AAA, I think he has a good shot at starting next year in the majors - obviously not facing very stiff competition. I think Brandon McCarthy is exactly the type of pitcher the Twins have wanted for years, but he's actually good unlike the ones they've got. Obviously Diamond has a chance this year to win his spot in next years rotation, I guess I need to see this over a longer period of time to believe it.

#5 glunn

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Posted 16 May 2012 - 10:59 PM

What about Walters? No one wants to give him the benefit of the doubt?

#6 Shane Wahl

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 12:01 AM

What about Walters? No one wants to give him the benefit of the doubt?


Well, I like the potential there, but I do doubt that he is going to be better than a FA signing. And with Blackburn's stupid contract, there would then be 3 spots open.

#7 James Richter

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 12:16 AM

What do you realistically propose for 2013? Here would be my hope

Gibson
Hendriks
Brandon McCarthy
Ryan Dempster/ Erik Bedard/ Anibel Sanchez
Blackburn (by default due to his contract)

I think you're on the right track with this, though I wouldn't count on Gibson until midseason. Two other guys I'd throw in with Dempster and Sanchez: Colby Lewis and Shawn Marcum. Fly ball pitchers, low BB/9, right around 200 IP in consecutive years. And how about bringing Baker back on a cheap, incentive-laden 1-year deal? Plan on him being available by mid-May. So you start the season like this:

McCarthy
Dempster/Lewis/et al.
Hendriks
Diamond
Blackburn

Baker is in reserve to take over for whoever is struggling the most after 7-8 GS, Gibson after that. Perhaps our #2 overall pick as early as September? Depth!

Whichever FAs you prefer, this has to be the formula for 2013. Right now, the Twins have around $28M invested in 5 veteran starters who have combined for about -3 WAR. If they maintain that rotation budget for next year, they'll have $22M or so to drop on a couple of front end starters after accounting for Blackburn and a serf or two. This offseason's FA market is flush with solid SP. Signing at least two of them is the only hope the Twins have to stay afloat.

#8 Top Gun

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 01:41 AM

Crazy talk, dream on!

#9 Montecore

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 01:46 AM

They'll sign one FA pitcher tops and doubtful it'd be any of the names listed.

#10 jimbo92107

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 05:06 AM

Where art thou, RA Dickey?

#11 twinswon1991

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 05:50 AM

It is much more likely that Terry Ryan signs 2 of the following: Harang, Westbrook, Moyer, Lowe, Corriea, etc because they are pitch to contact vets. None will get mlb offers yet Terry will likely give them multi year deals. I would Love to see the Twins sign Annibal but he will demand 4 years at 14 mil per year. Secondly the Twins are not an attractive destination due to their zero fhance of winning, terrible pitching coach and inept medical staff.

#12 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 07:13 AM

How bad is this rotation? Really bad! Even though I had low expectations, I expected some better results from Liriano and Pavano. Blackburn and Marquis are doing about what I thought they would do, and it's too bad about Baker's injury. The Twins have a repuation when it comes to FA starters, and that's to sign guys past their prime to short deals - Marcum, Sanchez, Dempster and Colby Lewis don't really fit that profile, it would be really nice if the Twins would break that mold. The questions will be A) can Terry Ryan find room in the budget for one of these guys and B) wil any of them be willing to come here at this point in their careers? It will be interesting to see what happens with Scott Baker this off-season. I wonder if he'd want to come back to the Twins after the way this off-season went for him (even though he said he didn't place blame on the Twins' medical staff, I imagine it is hard to block out all the folks saying that the medical staff is hurting players' careers).

#13 Shane Wahl

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 07:39 AM

How bad is this rotation? Really bad! Even though I had low expectations, I expected some better results from Liriano and Pavano. Blackburn and Marquis are doing about what I thought they would do, and it's too bad about Baker's injury.

The Twins have a repuation when it comes to FA starters, and that's to sign guys past their prime to short deals - Marcum, Sanchez, Dempster and Colby Lewis don't really fit that profile, it would be really nice if the Twins would break that mold. The questions will be A) can Terry Ryan find room in the budget for one of these guys and B) wil any of them be willing to come here at this point in their careers?

It will be interesting to see what happens with Scott Baker this off-season. I wonder if he'd want to come back to the Twins after the way this off-season went for him (even though he said he didn't place blame on the Twins' medical staff, I imagine it is hard to block out all the folks saying that the medical staff is hurting players' careers).


Dempster is past his prime and could be add for a Pavanoesque (a few million more per) two-year deal. I know he wants to stay with the Cubs, but in some ways that team is in more of a mess than the Twins are, believe it or not.

#14 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 10:36 AM

Yeah, that's true. I would be cautious of Dempster moving to the AL - Even though the AL Central isn't as tough as the AL East, I imagine it's still better than the NL Central (plus Dempster wouldn't get to pitch against the Twins' lineup). Pavano's making 8.5 Million this year - that should mean that the Twins could replace him with someone better at the same price or less.

#15 James Richter

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 12:26 PM

The Twins have a repuation when it comes to FA starters, and that's to sign guys past their prime to short deals - Marcum, Sanchez, Dempster and Colby Lewis don't really fit that profile, it would be really nice if the Twins would break that mold. The questions will be A) can Terry Ryan find room in the budget for one of these guys and B) wil any of them be willing to come here at this point in their careers?

It will be interesting to see what happens with Scott Baker this off-season. I wonder if he'd want to come back to the Twins after the way this off-season went for him (even though he said he didn't place blame on the Twins' medical staff, I imagine it is hard to block out all the folks saying that the medical staff is hurting players' careers).

No doubt, Marquis and Pavano will be easy to replace with similar pitchers. But the need to break the mold couldn't be clearer at this point. A RH #2 starter is probably going to get $10M-$14M/year for 3-4 years as a FA. That has to be the Twins' biggest offseason priority, because that type of pitcher isn't going to come from within the organization.

As for making this an attractive place to pitch, a lot will depend on how they finish the season. If the offense can recover to the level it was hitting in April (upper half of the league) and the 'pen remains effective and a few of the young players show they are acclimating to the Majors, hopefully one or two quality SPs would take a market value contract here believing that they could be part of a team on the upswing. The medical staff is a real liability, though. I can't think of any move that would add more value to the organization more cheaply than overhauling that group.

#16 cr9617

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 12:57 PM

No doubt, Marquis and Pavano will be easy to replace with similar pitchers. But the need to break the mold couldn't be clearer at this point. A RH #2 starter is probably going to get $10M-$14M/year for 3-4 years as a FA. That has to be the Twins' biggest offseason priority, because that type of pitcher isn't going to come from within the organization.

As for making this an attractive place to pitch, a lot will depend on how they finish the season. If the offense can recover to the level it was hitting in April (upper half of the league) and the 'pen remains effective and a few of the young players show they are acclimating to the Majors, hopefully one or two quality SPs would take a market value contract here believing that they could be part of a team on the upswing. The medical staff is a real liability, though. I can't think of any move that would add more value to the organization more cheaply than overhauling that group.


That would mean a #2 would cost the Twins somewhere between $30-55 million, depending on the length of the deal.

Knowing that Willingham for 3 years @ $21 million is the largest FA contract the Twins have even given out.....do we really think the Twins will ante up for that type of contract? I would say the answer is definitely NO.

I think they will do what they always do. Sign a couple of semi-washed veterans on the cheap and cross their fingers. And we all know what the end result will be....

#17 Fire Dan Gladden

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 12:58 PM

The Twins will not put up any large amount of money for a starting pitcher, regardless of who it is. $10 mil per is as high as they will go. Look for more low dollar FA signings...

#18 James Richter

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 02:22 PM

That would mean a #2 would cost the Twins somewhere between $30-55 million, depending on the length of the deal.

Knowing that Willingham for 3 years @ $21 million is the largest FA contract the Twins have even given out.....do we really think the Twins will ante up for that type of contract?

While that's tops for FAs so far, they have handed out 5 contracts of 4+ years and $33M+ since 2005. Obviously, they will try to commit as little as possible on FAs while still upgrading the staff - that's just good business. But if they don't have the will to spend what they have to in order to meaningfully upgrade the staff, well... then they're as bad as you think they are.

#19 Shane Wahl

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 02:55 PM

Dempster would be my pick out of the realistic FA options (not Grienke, not Anibal. etc.) and at 36 next year will probably take a 2/$25 million deal with an option on the third year. The Twins could overpay to get him . . . maybe $14 million/year (Pavano + Baker combined for that this year . . . ). The Twins are going to have to get one big signing or else there isn't going to be anyone in the seats next year.