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Suzuki: Beyond the Box Score

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#1 jorgenswest

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 10:49 PM

Beyond the Box Score has their thoughts on trading Suzuki.

The Twins would be fools not to trade Kurt Suzuki

I was just about to write that decisions like this separate good GMs from bad GMs, but in truth, it doesn't. Something like this is common sense. Trading an aging veteran whose trade value is through the roof to acquire one or two more prospects while making room for a young prospect is as simple as 1+1. It's the GMs who fail to realize this that are shown the door before they have a chance to decorate their office.


http://www.beyondthe...ins-kurt-suzuki

#2 whydidnt

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 01:20 PM

Have to agree with the sentiment of the article. However, the Twins organization has shown to be incredibly loyal to not only players, but coaches, and front office staff--to me to the point of overkill. Not sure Terry Ryan sees things the same way, though he really should. I do think that Suzuki is probably better than he has been the last couple of years, but not as good as he is this year. He had a couple of decent years to start his career, so there is some talent there.

Bottom line, the Twins have not been good at selling high over the last few years, I'd like to see them start with Suzuki this year. If their hearts are set on bringing him back next year, he'll be a FA in the off-season and they can take another run at him. If he isn't willing to sign now for what they want to offer, it makes no sense to keep him, if they can get any sort of decent prospect in return.

#3 old nurse

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 01:44 PM

The article calls him an aging veteran and says he is going to regress. If some fan can figure that out, why couldn't most front offices of contending teams? The sell high notion because he was an All Star makes no sense. He is sell high only if there is demand and he is deemed as the one catcher that could put people over the top. Somebody has posted about how poor of a pitch framer he is. If that is the hot skill the team is looking for, there goes places Suzuki could go

#4 Dman

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 02:07 PM

The article calls him an aging veteran and says he is going to regress. If some fan can figure that out, why couldn't most front offices of contending teams? The sell high notion because he was an All Star makes no sense. He is sell high only if there is demand and he is deemed as the one catcher that could put people over the top. Somebody has posted about how poor of a pitch framer he is. If that is the hot skill the team is looking for, there goes places Suzuki could go


He is hitting .312 right now which is 8th in the AL his OBP is 11th or 12th. On a lot of teams he would be their best hitter or second best hitter. There is a lot of value in his bat right now. It isn't often you can acquire a .300 hitter at the deadline. His value should be high regardless of his average to below average defense.

#5 whydidnt

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 02:21 PM

The article calls him an aging veteran and says he is going to regress. If some fan can figure that out, why couldn't most front offices of contending teams? The sell high notion because he was an All Star makes no sense. He is sell high only if there is demand and he is deemed as the one catcher that could put people over the top. Somebody has posted about how poor of a pitch framer he is. If that is the hot skill the team is looking for, there goes places Suzuki could go


Depends on what your notion of "sell high" is, doesn't it? Isn't his value higher now, than it was this past off season? If he turns back into 2012-13 Suzuki next year, you won't be able to get anywhere near his current value, whatever that is in a trade. The idea of selling high doesn't always mean you'll get a King's ransom, just that you can get more for him now than you could have previously or will likely get in the future.

You could argue that Suzuki's value to the Twins is greater than what they will get in a trade, so it doesn't make sense. However, with him being a FA at the end of the year, I would disagree, unless they can agree to a contract extension, which so far it sounds like they can't. So in those terms his trade value may never be higher.

#6 TheLeviathan

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 02:38 PM

The article calls him an aging veteran and says he is going to regress. If some fan can figure that out, why couldn't most front offices of contending teams? The sell high notion because he was an All Star makes no sense. He is sell high only if there is demand and he is deemed as the one catcher that could put people over the top. Somebody has posted about how poor of a pitch framer he is. If that is the hot skill the team is looking for, there goes places Suzuki could go


Sometimes teams pay just for the two month rental if they're a contender and are hurting at a position like catcher.

#7 gunnarthor

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 02:44 PM

Bottom line, the Twins have not been good at selling high over the last few years, I'd like to see them start with Suzuki this year. If their hearts are set on bringing him back next year, he'll be a FA in the off-season and they can take another run at him. If he isn't willing to sign now for what they want to offer, it makes no sense to keep him, if they can get any sort of decent prospect in return.

Ryan's been pretty good about selling high. He sold Span after a 5 WAR season (followed by a 2 WAR season in Washington), Revere after a 2.5 WAR season (followed by a 0.5 one). He also traded off free agents to be in Liriano and Morneau. I'm not overly worried about Ryan not trading Suzuki, it'll happen.

#8 jokin

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 03:05 PM

Ryan's been pretty good about selling high. He sold Span after a 5 WAR season (followed by a 2 WAR season in Washington), Revere after a 2.5 WAR season (followed by a 0.5 one). He also traded off free agents to be in Liriano and Morneau. I'm not overly worried about Ryan not trading Suzuki, it'll happen.


Reposted from the Trade Suzuki thread:

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I supported both of the trades, but having said that.....Great storyline about Span and Revere, but not necessarily true..... in terms of fWAR:

Denard Span fWAR in:

2012 w/ Twins: 3.5
2013 w/ Nats: 3.5 (league leader in Triples w/ 11).
2014 w/ Nats: 2.1 in fWAR and 2.3 bWAR, which extrapolates full-season out to somewhere +/- close to 3.5 WAR once again. Span had a career-high 46 XBH in 2012, 43 XBH in 2013, extrapolating out in 2014 over 162 games, and using his current 35 XBH, Span is due for 57 XBH.

Revere missed nearly half the season last year, he was one of the 5 hottest batters in multiple major categories over the previous 2.5 months before he sustained a season-ending injury. His OPS+ went up with Philadelphia in 2013 from 89 to 93. His batting slash-line is almost identical over 2012, 2013, 2014. The big difference in terms of fWAR is the "collapse" in his defensive ranking*, which really represents more a position change than anything resembling a collapse.

*(Curiously, Span's drop in bWAR in 2013 was also due primarily to a BRef downgrading of Span's defense, while meanwhile, under fWAR, Span's defensive value actually increased in 2013 with Washington).


#9 old nurse

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 03:31 PM

Sometimes teams pay just for the two month rental if they're a contender and are hurting at a position like catcher.


Suzuki has been a late season trade the last 2 years, one trade that rated a C+prospect and one that rated a c. Yes teams will trade for a rental. Don't expect much in return. Now if you think Ryan is a crafty trader of talent, you could expect a little more than not much.
Are teams going to look at his career or what he has done for 4 months?

Is Baltimore unhappy with their tandem? Is St Louis seen enough of Kottaras to think they need a different backup?
Suzuki has been playing most of the season, does he do poorly in a backup role? These are the questions that would need to be answered. If the first 2 answers have one as a yes, you have a trade partner unless the third answer is yes. If the third answer is yes, you do not have a buy high proposition.

#10 TheLeviathan

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 03:39 PM

Are teams going to look at his career or what he has done for 4 months?.


Oh cmon, totally different situation. Look, we all know we're not going to bamboozle someone about his long-term likelihood to maintain this production. That doens't mean someone with a NEED won't take a chance and pay the price to reflect his production.

#11 old nurse

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 03:45 PM

Depends on what your notion of "sell high" is, doesn't it? Isn't his value higher now, than it was this past off season? If he turns back into 2012-13 Suzuki next year, you won't be able to get anywhere near his current value, whatever that is in a trade. The idea of selling high doesn't always mean you'll get a King's ransom, just that you can get more for him now than you could have previously or will likely get in the future.

You could argue that Suzuki's value to the Twins is greater than what they will get in a trade, so it doesn't make sense. However, with him being a FA at the end of the year, I would disagree, unless they can agree to a contract extension, which so far it sounds like they can't. So in those terms his trade value may never be higher.


Selling high is getting a C++ prospect rather than a C+ prospect?
When people argue for the sell high point of view I am led to believe they think the Twins are going to get a great prospect back. The value of the prospect they get back will depend on the savvyness of the Twins FO to pluck an unrecognized gem out of the other team's system. The value Suzuki has will always be determined by demand versus similar talent. If a team needs a starter, they can look to Suzuki if he fits what they want out of a catcher. Then he has higher value. If he doesn't, his value is unchanged. A team needs a backup catcher they might just pick someone off the scrap heap for fill in rather than part with something of value for someone they do not value.

#12 old nurse

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 03:59 PM

Oh cmon, totally different situation. Look, we all know we're not going to bamboozle someone about his long-term likelihood to maintain this production. That doens't mean someone with a NEED won't take a chance and pay the price to reflect his production.

Does not mean they will, either. There seems to be this great expectation that something of great value can be had for Suzuki. The value will depend on what the Twins see in the prospect versus what the other team missed. Sorry, I just can not jump on the bandwagon that says Suzuki will sell high. A C+ prospect ata time of trade that the Twins unearth a B+ prospect out of. Sort of like Escobar out of Liriano. Nobody thought much of Escobar at the time.
The team that would appear to have the need, Suzuki does not fit their style.

#13 whydidnt

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 04:19 PM

Selling high is getting a C++ prospect rather than a C+ prospect?
When people argue for the sell high point of view I am led to believe they think the Twins are going to get a great prospect back. The value of the prospect they get back will depend on the savvyness of the Twins FO to pluck an unrecognized gem out of the other team's system. The value Suzuki has will always be determined by demand versus similar talent. If a team needs a starter, they can look to Suzuki if he fits what they want out of a catcher. Then he has higher value. If he doesn't, his value is unchanged. A team needs a backup catcher they might just pick someone off the scrap heap for fill in rather than part with something of value for someone they do not value.


Actually, to me sell high simply means trading a player when his value is greatest. That value may be a B prospect or a D prospect or a package of major league players. It's like selling your house before the market crash not after. Suzuki's value, whatever that is will certainly be higher now, than it was last year.

#14 TheLeviathan

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 06:08 PM

Does not mean they will, either. There seems to be this great expectation that something of great value can be had for Suzuki. The value will depend on what the Twins see in the prospect versus what the other team missed. Sorry, I just can not jump on the bandwagon that says Suzuki will sell high. A C+ prospect ata time of trade that the Twins unearth a B+ prospect out of. Sort of like Escobar out of Liriano. Nobody thought much of Escobar at the time.
The team that would appear to have the need, Suzuki does not fit their style.


This style stuff is really a bunch of guesswork I'm not sure is very relevant to the conversation. Whatever the Twins deal Suzuki for now is far more than what they could get at his normal production. That's pretty much what sell high means, you're getting whatever the best you could hope to get for him. If that's a C+ spec...so be it.

#15 old nurse

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 08:54 PM

This style stuff is really a bunch of guesswork I'm not sure is very relevant to the conversation. Whatever the Twins deal Suzuki for now is far more than what they could get at his normal production. That's pretty much what sell high means, you're getting whatever the best you could hope to get for him. If that's a C+ spec...so be it.


You don't know if his contribution to others improves them. AJ Achter credits his improvement to Mike Pelfrey. Achter was not on the radar at spring despite being in the AFL. What he is doing in Rochester would lead one to believe he has a shot at being part of the bullpen of the future. You don't know if having an experienced catcher around will have an observation that improves a young player or not. If you think that having Suzuki around for the coming onslaught of AAA pitchers might make them learn more and improve, then it could be worth keeping him around. That benefit would outweigh another C prospect. Now a better prospect, you have to think more. The team should be picky. Just so there is no confusion, don't trade just for anything, but trade for quality

#16 TheLeviathan

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 09:30 PM

The team should be picky. Just so there is no confusion, don't trade just for anything, but trade for quality


If you're not going to resign him...a month of working with Kurt Suzuki isn't going to mean a whole lot for AJ Achter or Trevor May or anyone else. Either extend him or trade him. Doing nothing with a FA you picked up and excelled to far better than expected levels would be a mistake.

#17 The Wise One

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 03:46 AM

If you're not going to resign him...a month of working with Kurt Suzuki isn't going to mean a whole lot for AJ Achter or Trevor May or anyone else. Either extend him or trade him. Doing nothing with a FA you picked up and excelled to far better than expected levels would be a mistake.


Adding the equivalent of Alex Gillingham because that is all you are offered does what for your team? Sometimes a trade is doing nothing. Doing nothing as opososed to doing something that is nothing may be a better thing.

#18 TheLeviathan

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 04:39 AM

Adding the equivalent of Alex Gillingham because that is all you are offered does what for your team? Sometimes a trade is doing nothing. Doing nothing as opososed to doing something that is nothing may be a better thing.


He'll walk in two months. If you want to keep him, go ahead and do it - extend him now. It'll come at a cost you'll probably not like a ton going forward, but go ahead.

Have a guy in an expiring deal having a career year at a difficult position to find and do neither a trade nor an extension? That's unwise.

#19 whosafraidofluigirussolo

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 07:38 AM

MLBTradeRumors reports that Suzuki's agents are seeking an extension in line with Ruiz' and Saltalamacchia's free-agent contracts.

Yikes. Avoid.

#20 ashburyjohn

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 10:29 AM

MLBTradeRumors reports that Suzuki's agents are seeking an extension in line with Ruiz' and Saltalamacchia's free-agent contracts.

Yikes. Avoid.


Sign and trade, so the acquiring team has some assurance as to what they are getting, and are willing to offer more in trade than if it's a 2 month rental?

#21 jorgenswest

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 10:58 AM

Sign and trade, so the acquiring team has some assurance as to what they are getting, and are willing to offer more in trade than if it's a 2 month rental?


While I think that makes sense for a player like David Price, a two or three year Suzuki contract gives him less value.

Two of the better fits would only want Suzuki until the end of the year due to injuries. Give him an extension and you may eliminate the two best trade partners.

#22 DJSim22

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 11:03 AM

Trade him and get something in return. I highly doubt the Twins will sign him in the off season as he is asking for too much imo. They better find a vet catcher that can work with a young catcher and a young staff. Asking May and Meyer to come up to the big leagues and throw to Pinto is a recipe for disaster.

#23 ashburyjohn

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 11:06 AM

Give him an extension and you may eliminate the two best trade partners.


That's a very good point. But I am skeptical that Ryan can extract much in return for the two-month rental, even from a team in dire need. They'll prefer to muddle through with someone they can obtain for next to nothing, rather than give up anything who projects higher than a utility player; prospects are so highly valued these days. Still got my fingers crossed that Ryan can work some magic.

#24 SwainZag

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 11:09 AM

Trade him and get something in return. I highly doubt the Twins will sign him in the off season as he is asking for too much imo. They better find a vet catcher that can work with a young catcher and a young staff. Asking May and Meyer to come up to the big leagues and throw to Pinto is a recipe for disaster.

]

If they trade him now, Pinto can be promoted and be the primary starter for the rest of the season. With the team not looking at the playoffs it would be valuable experience and would give the team a very good look at if they would need to find a veteran or not to start in 2015.

#25 DJSim22

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 11:14 AM

]

If they trade him now, Pinto can be promoted and be the primary starter for the rest of the season. With the team not looking at the playoffs it would be valuable experience and would give the team a very good look at if they would need to find a veteran or not to start in 2015.


I have no problem with this, I should have clarified and said they need a vet backup catcher for 2015 not named AJ.