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Article: Twins Minor League Report (7/23): Shut out of Majors, Meyer Impresses

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#21 amjgt

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 10:00 AM

Fun day, today, of starting pitching probables

#22 lightfoot789

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 10:27 AM

I'm from Chicago and I just read the Cubs promoted Albert Almora to AA...I saw he and Buxton play last year against one another at Kane County and they were on two different levels at the time...makes me wonder where Buxton could be if healthy
.


Almora .283 BA / .306 OBP
Pays to be the #6 pick in the draft
Cubs are said to have the best minor league system in baseball this year. Love how they treat each player differently in terms of promotion rationale. Players are not always as fragile as everyone makes them to be. They understand that failure comes with the game and that they are in the minors for a reason. I wish the Twins would let some of their prospects move a little quicker (even if it meant repeating a level after an aggressive promotion).

Baby steps = Congrats to Jorge Polanco going to AA. Look for that September call up.

#23 tobi0040

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 10:40 AM

Debatable. The comparative peripheral stats and Pino's incredibly lucky peripherals (BABIP and LOB%) and advanced age and little future with the Twins suggest Meyer was the superior choice.


Bingo.

#24 Tibs

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 10:42 AM

Is there a downside to Meyer spending the rest of the year in the Twins bullpen? I would like to see him as a starter, but I don't know how many more starts he could make and he has been on a pitch limit what seems like all season.

#25 SurroundedByTigers

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 10:59 AM

Reed's numbers are looking pretty dynamite for CR: 1.29 ERA in 5 appearances w/10K, 1 bb. So far between Elizabethtown and CR, he has 0.69 ERA in 13IP with 18K, 1 BB.
Also, when does Walker go up to AA? Vargas needs some friendly hitting competition - for the long ball, batting avg, etc.

#26 Dantes929

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 11:20 AM

Debatable. The comparative peripheral stats and Pino's incredibly lucky peripherals (BABIP and LOB%) and advanced age and little future with the Twins suggest Meyer was the superior choice.

9-1 with a sub 2 ERA probably did involve some luck but still 9-1 with sub 2 ERA. Meyer with some dominating performances and great peripherals still had a run and a half higher ERA and a .500 record. Debatable means defendable. If Meyer had a 9-1 record with a 1.9 ERA we would not be having this discussion. Logan over Meyer is not as defendable.

#27 tobi0040

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 11:37 AM

9-1 with a sub 2 ERA probably did involve some luck but still 9-1 with sub 2 ERA. Meyer with some dominating performances and great peripherals still had a run and a half higher ERA and a .500 record. Debatable means defendable. If Meyer had a 9-1 record with a 1.9 ERA we would not be having this discussion. Logan over Meyer is not as defendable.


Wins and losses is a terrible gauge for starting pitchers.

If you mean revert the two guys BABIP and LOB %, their numbers are in the same ballpark. That is what you have to do when looking at a sample of 50-60 IP. Or you could look at career numbers, which Meyer would get the nod.

Pino at AAA. 2.45 ERA, 9.14 K per 9. .220 BABIP and a 86.5% strand rate.

Meyer at AAA 3.11 ERA, 10.2 K per 9. .296 BABIP and a 77% strand rate.

Meyer's BABIP and strand rate look about normal. If you basically increase Pino's base runners by 30%, then double the amount of runners that score,.......you have two pitchers with very similar numbers and you have just taken the 30 year old non prospect with no future over the 24 year old top 20-30 prospect with MLB stuff.

Since the promotion, Pino has K'd 6.5 per 9. His BABIP jumped to .314 (normal range), his LOB percentage swung the other way (.67.8%), which is probably too low.....

This was all predictable and we have given 33 innings and counting to the wrong pitcher, IMO.

Edited by tobi0040, 24 July 2014 - 11:52 AM.


#28 Badsmerf

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 11:38 AM

9-1 with a sub 2 ERA probably did involve some luck but still 9-1 with sub 2 ERA. Meyer with some dominating performances and great peripherals still had a run and a half higher ERA and a .500 record. Debatable means defendable. If Meyer had a 9-1 record with a 1.9 ERA we would not be having this discussion. Logan over Meyer is not as defendable.

I guess that depends on how much weight you put on ERA and W/L. Many feel that W/L are a worthless stat for pitchers. It really doesn't tell you much about their performance. ERA is better but it still doesn't tell the whole story when you're looking at small samples. The other issue is that Pino is not a prospect anymore. By the time players are 30 the book has pretty much been written. Guys don't really "break out" after 30, so why waste MLB innings on him when there are prospects that need those innings for development.
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#29 Seth Stohs

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 12:01 PM

A minor nit--in your Miracle write-up no mention of pitching--yet my AAP had a great game--maybe not as good as Meyers--but almost--7IP, 2R, 8 hits, 5Ks and no BB. That at least deserves a mention in the minor league report.

Don't get me wrong--I love these--first articles I read on TD each day.

Count me among those who think that Dougie deserves a promotion and maybe actually to the Twins coaching staff.


I listened to a few innings of yesterday's game and it really sounded like Lee was impressive. He's got really good stuff... Hopefully he can stay healthy.

#30 Seth Stohs

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 12:04 PM

Nice call, Seth.

Brice Zimmerman@ZimMiracleBefore heading out on four-game trip to Tampa, Miracle have a few roster moves. Levi Michael comes over from GCL. Jorge Polanco to AA.


Wow!!! I'm good... Ha! Just kidding... just a guess.

#31 Seth Stohs

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 12:05 PM

Is there a downside to Meyer spending the rest of the year in the Twins bullpen? I would like to see him as a starter, but I don't know how many more starts he could make and he has been on a pitch limit what seems like all season.


Chris Sale spent a year and a half in the White Sox bullpen before becoming a starter 2 years ago.

#32 Seth Stohs

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 12:07 PM

9-1 with a sub 2 ERA probably did involve some luck but still 9-1 with sub 2 ERA. Meyer with some dominating performances and great peripherals still had a run and a half higher ERA and a .500 record. Debatable means defendable. If Meyer had a 9-1 record with a 1.9 ERA we would not be having this discussion. Logan over Meyer is not as defendable.


Except the reason that it would be Darnell on Saturday would be because Gibson can't go again. If they could have planned for it, there's no doubt Meyer would have been the choice (and still could be, just not for Saturday).

Pino - He deserved the opportunity. May - would have been up if not hurt.

Meyer - has put together 4-5 straight pretty good starts... before that, for about 5-6 weeks, he wasn't pitching well. So, yeah, I think it's OK to let him perform for a handful of starts before calling him up...

Now he's done that... Now is the time. I suspect he'll make a start next week sometime.

#33 Seth Stohs

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 12:09 PM

I guess that depends on how much weight you put on ERA and W/L. Many feel that W/L are a worthless stat for pitchers. It really doesn't tell you much about their performance. ERA is better but it still doesn't tell the whole story when you're looking at small samples. The other issue is that Pino is not a prospect anymore. By the time players are 30 the book has pretty much been written. Guys don't really "break out" after 30, so why waste MLB innings on him when there are prospects that need those innings for development.


W/L is meaningless. ERA isn't perfect, but it's solid. I just think K/9 is what too many people look at. Sometimes things like Pitchability, savvy, control, etc are much more important.

As for Pino, he was pitching well. I HATE when people say "he's not a prospect so he shouldn't get a chance." I 100% disagree with that thought.

#34 Taildragger8791

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 12:25 PM

Chris Sale spent a year and a half in the White Sox bullpen before becoming a starter 2 years ago.


Wasn't that because they had concerns about Sale's durability as a starter due to his build and his funky delivery?

#35 Badsmerf

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 01:09 PM

As for Pino, he was pitching well. I HATE when people say "he's not a prospect so he shouldn't get a chance." I 100% disagree with that thought.


You're missing the point. I would be fine with him getting a chance if Meyer and or May weren't knocking on the door. You really think a month of AAA for guys that have been in the minors for years is going to matter that much? I don't. I wanted them promoted after Pelfrey went down.

The issue is that in order to compete in the near future the Twins need someone like Meyer or May to become a good MLB pitcher. Not a back end starter which I'm sure Pino would be capable of. There is an adjustment period for that. Every start in AAA makes that adjustment happen latter and latter.

You've already said in other threads that the age prospects make it to the MLB doesn't matter to you. The age thing isn't as important as wasting innings in AAA; which is what Gibson did in 2013, and both May and Meyer are doing now. I just don't get why someone like Arcia is given the opportunity to fail and learn while May, Gibson, Meyer are not.
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#36 spycake

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 02:40 PM

Except the reason that it would be Darnell on Saturday would be because Gibson can't go again. If they could have planned for it, there's no doubt Meyer would have been the choice (and still could be, just not for Saturday).

Pino - He deserved the opportunity. May - would have been up if not hurt.

Meyer - has put together 4-5 straight pretty good starts... before that, for about 5-6 weeks, he wasn't pitching well. So, yeah, I think it's OK to let him perform for a handful of starts before calling him up...

Now he's done that... Now is the time. I suspect he'll make a start next week sometime.


You really have "no doubt" Meyer would have been the choice? The Twins have had a variety of starting rotation openings since the beginning of May and Meyer has yet to receive the call for any of them. I remember a month ago, when all sorts of posters claimed they had no doubt Pino was starting once before May got the permanent call; almost immediately, May was committed to AAA for another month by his Futures Game assignment.

I agree Pino deserved "an" opportunity; it's not at all clear he deserved "the" first permanent starting opportunity. What's so bad about letting Pino take Guerrier's spot, and May taking the rotation spot? There's basically nothing Pino can do this season that can give us confidence in a 30 year old rookie holding down a rotation spot next year -- very much the contrast of May or Meyer. What's the rush to give Pino the first permanent starting opportunity this year? Wouldn't we be better off seeing how May and Meyer adjust, so we know if we need to add starting pitching reinforcements in the offseason (or how much to add)?

#37 h2oface

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 02:41 PM

I like watching Pino throw those 86-87 MPH fastballs, myself. What's not to like?

#38 Dantes929

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 04:26 PM

Ok, I agree that WL record isn't terribly meaningful but it is not meaningless either. It means you held the other team on that day in those conditions to fewer runs than the other team's pitcher did. Its not terribly meaningful but he was 9-1!! Likewise ERA doesn't mean everything except his was 1.9!!! I agree with Seth. Meyer is obviously the better raw talent but then shouldn't all those strikeouts result in a better ERA than the 30 year old non prospect? If not, then he is not the obvious choice. Meyer was my choice for pitcher to click this year so I have been as anxious to see him as anyone but Pino was 9-1 with a 1.9 ERA. How can you give the Twins grief on one hand for the scholarship program and then criticize them for promoting a guy who has had that much success at that level? As far as May is concerned I don't think he was committed to anything by being named to that Futures game. I think he would have made his debut already if he had not gotten hurt.

#39 Dantes929

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 04:28 PM

I like watching Pino throw those 86-87 MPH fastballs, myself. What's not to like?

I don't think he has pitched all that bad but I don't think he has a permanent rotation spot either. If his ERA goes up over 5 in his next start and it is quite likely that he will be the guy replaced by Meyer or May.

#40 mike wants wins

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 07:53 PM

I love how people say "there is no doubt May or Meyer would be up next" when they keep being passed by. I wonder how many months would have to go by before it was too long. ....