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#31 USAFChief

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 12:31 PM

Not scientific, or representative, but as a point of reference, 23 of 36 entries in the "Over/Under" contest had the Twins over 70.5 wins.

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#32 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 12:46 PM

Not scientific, or representative, but as a point of reference, 23 of 36 entries in the "Over/Under" contest had the Twins over 70.5 wins.


And they're on pace to beat that by 2.5 games so it seems pretty accurate at this point.

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#33 Thegrin

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 12:56 PM

I hate this thread.  I hated it last year and I hate it this year. The Twins should win EVERY game they possibly can, regardless of how it affects their 2015 draft position.  I hate the idea that the Twins would do anything but put out the best possible lineup for every game and demand that all their players should play their best, every game.

If I ever thought that Gardy manipulated his lineup or pitching rotation in order to lose a game, I would be screaming for the Twins to remove ALL management and Front Office staff.

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#34 drjim

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 12:58 PM

Not scientific, or representative, but as a point of reference, 23 of 36 entries in the "Over/Under" contest had the Twins over 70.5 wins.

 

That is also why I said mid 70s to high 60s, which would skew a little above 70.5, which is right in line with those predictions and more or less right in line with where they are headed.

 

For better or worse, I just don't think their draft position will drop a whole lot based as much on how bad the other teams are than any drastic improvement by the Twins.

 

Again, and this is admittedly a personal peeve in public discussion, but to take this information and say that "everyone" predicted they wouldn't draft that low is really contrary to the clear facts that were just cited. I just see that as overly pessimistic and inflammatory for the sake of being pessimistic and inflammatory. That can't be good for discussion, but I also admit this might just be a personal thing.

Papers...business papers.

#35 drjim

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 01:03 PM

I hate this thread.  I hated it last year and I hate it this year. The Twins should win EVERY game they possibly can, regardless of how it affects their 2015 draft position.  I hate the idea that the Twins would do anything but put out the best possible lineup for every game and demand that all their players should play their best, every game.

If I ever thought that Gardy manipulated his lineup or pitching rotation in order to lose a game, I would be screaming for the Twins to remove ALL management and Front Office staff.

 

Aside from protecting young players (especially arms) I think the Twins are doing pretty much everything they can to win. They just aren't an especially talented team, but should be more representative this year than the past three, especially when they call up May and Milone, and Mauer and Nolasco return from injury.

 

I also expect Pinto, Tonkin and possibly Hicks to be recalled in September, and Meyer to be brought into the bullpen. So if nothing else there will actually be some decent young players to watch.

Papers...business papers.

#36 USAFChief

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 01:24 PM

 

 

Again, and this is admittedly a personal peeve in public discussion, but to take this information and say that "everyone" predicted they wouldn't draft that low is really contrary to the clear facts that were just cited. I just see that as overly pessimistic and inflammatory for the sake of being pessimistic and inflammatory. That can't be good for discussion, but I also admit this might just be a personal thing.

It seemed like normal conversational hyperbola to me.  

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#37 drjim

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 01:27 PM

It seemed like normal conversational hyperbola to me.  

 

Fair enough, I'll shut up (for now).

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Papers...business papers.

#38 old nurse

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 01:45 PM


 

Again, and this is admittedly a personal peeve in public discussion, but to take this information and say that "everyone" predicted they wouldn't draft that low is really contrary to the clear facts that were just cited. I just see that as overly pessimistic and inflammatory for the sake of being pessimistic and inflammatory. That can't be good for discussion, but I also admit this might just be a personal thing.

Personal opinion is that there is plenty of leeway given to pessimistic posts that are inflamatory on this board. I don't think it is the hyperbole as much as it iss is dividing people as you are either for what I say or against, dividing people into camps. With that division it cuts the meaningful conversation.


#39 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 05:10 PM

For better or worse, I just don't think their draft position will drop a whole lot based as much on how bad the other teams are than any drastic improvement by the Twins.

 

Predicting a drop in the Twins' standings is pessimistic and frankly, a bit tiresome. In case people hadn't noticed, the Twins actually walked away from the trade deadline a better team than they entered it. One of their biggest problems in June/July was band-aided with the addition of Tommy Milone.

 

What other cellar-dweller can say that, not to mention that most other cellar-dwellers are in the same position of the Twins, and that's playing a bunch of scrubs and rookies in August and September.

 

As bad as the Twins might be in August and September, it's just as likely that the other teams around them in the standings are going to be just as bad. Therefore, barring extenuating circumstances, it's unlikely the Twins move up or down the draft ladder much in the next seven weeks.


#40 CRArko

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 05:47 PM

I'm just trying to figure out which one of you is actually Pete Rose.
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#41 mike wants wins

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 08:04 AM

ESPN Insider has an article on the race to the bottom.....

 

They think there is no chance the Twins finish last. Right now, 6th or 7th is the projection there. Oh, and they think Mauer's return will help them win more.....

 

Also, I do think at some point, Milone/May/Meyer (one or more) are up, and not Darnell/Johnson, so their pitching should be better.

Lighten up Francis....

#42 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 08:07 AM

ESPN Insider has an article on the race to the bottom.....

 

They think there is no chance the Twins finish last. Right now, 6th or 7th is the projection there. Oh, and they think Mauer's return will help them win more.....

 

Also, I do think at some point, Milone/May/Meyer (one or more) are up, and not Darnell/Johnson, so their pitching should be better.

 

I don't know if I even buy in that they'll win more - though that's possible with Mauer, Nolasco, Milone, May, or Meyer - but I think it's incredibly unlikely that they'll win less than the teams below them.

 

The 2014 Twins are a bad team but they're not terrible... I don't see any reason for them to start playing worse ball than they've played up to this point.


#43 mike wants wins

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Posted 05 August 2014 - 08:13 AM

Agreed, Brock. I just don't see them getting worse as the year goes on, but could get better.*

 

*assuming Mauer is between what he has been this year, and real Joe Mauer

Lighten up Francis....

#44 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 06 August 2014 - 01:33 PM

A quick glance over the standings shows the Twins with the ninth pick next draft.

 

I just don't see this team moving much outside the 7-11 range and this latest batch of decent play has only cemented that opinion.


#45 stringer bell

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Posted 07 August 2014 - 11:53 AM

A quick glance over the standings shows the Twins with the ninth pick next draft.
 
I just don't see this team moving much outside the 7-11 range and this latest batch of decent play has only cemented that opinion.

Pretty sure decent play correlates with decent starting pitching. Also relevant to the remainder of the year, I think the bullpen will not be an asset for the last third of the season. They seem to have overachieved their stuff and have been used a lot.

#46 mike wants wins

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Posted 07 August 2014 - 12:24 PM

If only you were allowed to call up RP from AAA.....

Lighten up Francis....

#47 Brandon

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Posted 07 August 2014 - 12:33 PM

I think the Twins were a lot better this year then last year.  You can see that in the run differential.  Instead of getting our brains beat in every night we are only losing by 1 or 2 consistently.  That Is not going to stop me from rooting against them as they trade for prospects this year.  Though the trades made so far is a better accumulation of talent.  I still would rather see them with the 4th or 5th pick in the draft next year unless they can turn it around and compete for .500.  But the Twins played like they gave up right out the gate at the all star break which is what prompted the trade of Morales and or me to start this thread and change my mindset from hopeful to next year.  The draft pick is nice to have a consolation to root for. 


#48 Brandon

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 10:54 AM

The Twins are currently 55-70 and on a bit of a tear.  They have moved up to the 7th pick in next years draft.  The are 2 games out of the 4th pick and 3 out of the 3rd.  At this point unless the Twins go on a big winning streak or big loosing streak.  The Twins are likely competing for the 4th through 8th pick in next years draft with an outside shot at 3rd.  At least this year the teams are loosing close games instead of by wide margins.  See this years run differential at -50 runs vs last years 190 minus runs.  Baby steps I guess.  Now lets get back to rooting for that 3rd pick.....


#49 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 11:31 PM

I don't think the Twins should be out actively trying to lose games, but as a fan, there's this new kind of hope that all of the losing could net the Twins something positive. It's a win-win. If the Twins win, HOORAY! And if the Twins lose... well at least they improve their draft status.

 

With that being said, there are a lot of other reasons to enjoy this ball club right now, but when you can turn a lose into a win, that's a good deal too. I still expect this team to "battle their tails off" or some other Gardyism as they head down the stretch. Win every game they possibly can, but come draft time, it's okay to be a little happy about all those losses.

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#50 mike wants wins

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 08:13 AM

It is a tough call......imagine if they had Bryant right now, instead of Stewart.....while I love Stewart, Bryant is a much more sure thing to be at least above average, if not great.....OTOH, Mike Wants Wins......even in a meaningless season.....so, in some ways, we serious fans win either way, but at some point, they gotta win....

Lighten up Francis....

#51 Brandon

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Posted 05 September 2014 - 11:22 AM

I think next year we will be a .500 team or better.  Especially with the way the offense is improving and we still have reinforcements on the way.  With that said we are now in a 3 way tie for 4th place meaning we would pick 4th if the season ended today in next years draft.  We are 2 games out of the 3rd pick.  I didn't think our rotation is that bad.  I see our team is likely to end up from the 3rd pick to the 6th pick.  It will take a lot to end up with the 7th pick. 

 

Texas          53 - 87     -

Colorado     56 - 84     3

Arizona       59 - 81     6

Minnesota   61 - 79     8

Houston      61 - 79     8

Boston        61 - 79     8

Chicago      63 - 76     10.5


#52 cmb0252

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Posted 05 September 2014 - 11:30 AM

I think next year we will be a .500 team or better.  Especially with the way the offense is improving and we still have reinforcements on the way.  With that said we are now in a 3 way tie for 4th place meaning we would pick 4th if the season ended today in next years draft.  We are 2 games out of the 3rd pick.  I didn't think our rotation is that bad.  I see our team is likely to end up from the 3rd pick to the 6th pick.  It will take a lot to end up with the 7th pick. 
 
Texas          53 - 87     -
Colorado     56 - 84     3
Arizona       59 - 81     6
Minnesota   61 - 79     8
Houston      61 - 79     8
Boston        61 - 79     8
Chicago      63 - 76     10.5


Astros get the #2 overall pick next year because they failed to sign Aiken. Also, if the Twins tie with the Astros, Houston would get the higher pick due to having a worse record last year. We would pick #6 if the season ended today.

#53 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 05 September 2014 - 11:50 AM

Not scientific, or representative, but as a point of reference, 23 of 36 entries in the "Over/Under" contest had the Twins over 70.5 wins.

and I'd like to change about 80% of the picks I made - can I have you unlock that thread for a minute? :)
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#54 USAFChief

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Posted 05 September 2014 - 01:11 PM

and I'd like to change about 80% of the picks I made - can I have you unlock that thread for a minute? :)

done.

...
Now locked again.
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