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#1 Brandon

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 05:15 PM

With the Twins going into full sale mode I figured its time to break out the new standings as we go from trying to be a .500 team back to trying for the nmber 1 pick in the draft. The players on the team are the ones pushing the issue so here we are.

We are currently in 8th place and 6 games out for the 1rst pick next draft.

1. Texas 40 - 60
2. Colorado 40 - 60 Tie
3. Chicago C 41 - 57 2.0
4. Houston 42 - 58 2.0
5. Philadelphia 43 - 57 3.0
6. San Diego 43 - 56 3.5
7. Arizona 44 - 57 3.5
8. Minnesota 46 - 54 6.0

We have some ground to make up but surely we can trade enough talent away for future prospects to get a better than 8th pick in next years draft.

#2 drjim

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 05:22 PM

Colorado really collapsed. Wow.
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#3 old nurse

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 05:27 PM

Keep in mind that Miami, the White Sox or the Mets could tank also. If you are wishing the Twins to make up lost ground you need to hope the other 7 teams along with the 3 I mentioned play each other a lot.

Also be mindful that for the Twins to be doing worse than they are now means that the players brought in to substitute for the ones let go were in aggregate worse than what they replaced. In a trying to win mode then Ryan was better of trying what he did than utilizing what he had.

Edited by old nurse, 23 July 2014 - 05:35 PM.


#4 Dman

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 05:40 PM

I don't think the Twins are bad enough to make the top five this year but maybe the top ten if they are unlucky enough.

#5 amjgt

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 06:01 PM

Don't forget... Houston gets pick 1b

#6 Hawkeye12

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 06:12 PM

I honestly think we finish second in the division when it's all said and done. I don't think the pieces we trade away (Willingham, Morales, Correia) are enough to make the team worse. Now that we are back to playing in the division, we may actually get to .500. I don't see too many series within the division we aren't going to win because we tend to play well against Detroit. Sox, Indians, and Royals aren't any good. The only thing keeping them thinking they have a chance is because THEY also get to play so much in the division. But nobody dominates it enough to make a big difference when it comes to getting the second wild card.

#7 Badsmerf

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 06:27 PM

The problem is that the talent coming in will likely be better than the talent leaving... If May and Meyer start getting starts, Rosario and Vargas get brought up.... we might be looking at playoffs boys!
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#8 GCTF

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 06:41 PM

The problem is that the talent coming in will likely be better than the talent leaving... If May and Meyer start getting starts, Rosario and Vargas get brought up.... we might be looking at playoffs boys!


Looks like Dave hacked your account.

#9 Willihammer

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 09:11 PM

So exciting!

#10 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 06:44 AM

I have a feeling that the Twins will not be bad enough this year to climb this leaderboard much.

If you take away Correia, Willingham, and Morales, how many more games will the Twins lose than if they kept them?

I think Suzuki being traded could be the only potential change that would cause the Twins to lose games on par with these other teams.

I feel like this is a good thing. The Twins are not so terrible this year.

#11 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 08:18 AM

I certainly am not going to root for them to lose, I think and hope they get as close to .500 as possible. If they can manage to go .500 they theoretically are only 6 or 7 games away next year to making the playoffs. Those 6 wins could be picked up on the FA market, or a combination of: Mauer, Buxton, Sano, Meyer, May, etc having full seasons (or close to full seasons) in 2015.
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#12 kdrupp09

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 09:00 AM

I think the Twins stay right about where they are. Probably looking at a pick somewhere between 5 and 10. I think having Hughes and Gibson (plus potentially May and Meyer) is enough to keep the Twins from going on a hugh losing streak where they could make up ground on the teams picking higher than them. I think the Twins finish somewhere around 75-87 give or take.

#13 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 10:24 AM

I don't see the Twins moving up in these standings as for the most part, the guys getting the call will not be any worse than the guys leaving. Pinto/Suzuki is probably the only switch where I could see there being a drop off, and even there, it's in the defensive side of things where metrics that quantify it tend to be questionable.

#14 Brandon

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 10:48 PM

We are now 46 - 56 and tied for the 7th pick and 4.5 games out of the 2nd pick of the draft. several teams have won the last 2 games moving closer to us in the standings If we can just trade Willingham who is showing some signs of life in his bat we should be able to kill the offense and go into a nosedive. Its not about who we trade for since we are not likely to find a good prospect for our pieces...maybe Suzuki, but its about the spot in the draft order next June.

I'll start cheering for the Twins again to win when they bring up good prospects or next season, when I suspect we will hit .500 or better. But for now its all about the spot in the draft order.

#15 mike wants wins

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Posted 26 July 2014 - 04:50 AM

Almost on pace for 90 losses again. It is possible they move up a spot or two, but I don't think they get to one.

#16 Pius Jefferson

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Posted 27 July 2014 - 12:25 AM

How depressing. 

 

Another season when draft positioning comes up before the trade deadline. 

 

At this point I can't put any positive spin on this.

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#17 kab21

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Posted 27 July 2014 - 02:32 AM

I don't really care as long as they stay in the top ten.  Despite signing Nolasco they will still have money to spend and a FA like Ervin Santana could slip in FA for a bargain again.  There is no way that they can justify losing pick #11 but losing pick #45 is justifiable.

 

Unlike many I actually would like to see them win some games and create a better clubhouse atmosphere.  It's something to build on next year.

I look forward to the day that a pitching prospect is truly blocked by good pitchers.


#18 AM.

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Posted 27 July 2014 - 04:59 AM

The Twins have 59 games left, and need to go better than 26-33 to avoid 90 losses.

They are also tied for the 7th to worst record. They are 8 games out of the wild card spot, and 5.5 games out of the first pick in the draft.

I don't like rooting for them to lose. But this season is toast, they are in sell mode, and every pick higher they move means significant amounts of extra draft cap space. If they had been able to move to third last year (they tied for fourth), they could have gotten Rodon.

#19 Brandon

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Posted 27 July 2014 - 12:56 PM

As of this morning we are 3.5 games out of the 3rd pick and 4.5 out from the 2nd pick.  Looks like we are moving in the right direction.  I really hope this is the last time I need to root this way. 


#20 kab21

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Posted 27 July 2014 - 08:20 PM

Likewise they are 4 games out of the 13th pick but they look awful this year (again).

I look forward to the day that a pitching prospect is truly blocked by good pitchers.


#21 Brandon

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 11:19 AM

A 48 - 60 we are in 6th place 1 game out from the 5th pick and 2 out of the 4th pick of next years draft.   


#22 mike wants wins

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 12:08 PM

Remember when everyone said they would not pick this high again for years? Good times.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#23 drjim

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 01:28 PM

Remember when everyone said they would not pick this high again for years? Good times.

 

"Everyone"

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#24 Kwak

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 02:27 PM

Go Twins! Go!


#25 old nurse

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 04:24 PM

"Everyone"

Does "Remember when those few optimisic Twins fan said ..."  sound better? To say :jump: FO Appologists would be inflamatory :whacky028: :shoot: (where is the dead smilie to go here?)

Edited by old nurse, 02 August 2014 - 04:26 PM.


#26 old nurse

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 04:37 PM

Boston after trading their better players, Texas, Houston, DBacks, Cubs, and Colorado may be hard to "catch" San Diego and Philli could still tank. Meyer and May could come up and show how wrong the Twins were to leave them in AAA. To fall to the 18th pick is still possible. Faded memories seem to recall a quite a few years the Twins played well in September to give you hopes that were crushed by the following May


#27 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 05:04 PM

Under Gardy the last few years we have seen the Twins collapse in September. I see no reason not to expect the same this season. The Twins have a very good chance of ending up with a top-5 pick again, and could lose their way into the top 3 without too much bad luck.


#28 drjim

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 11:53 PM

Does "Remember when those few optimisic Twins fan said ..." sound better? To say :jump: FO Appologists would be inflamatory :whacky028: :shoot: (where is the dead smilie to go here?)


Isn't there a term for when you take the position of a few people on the extreme, make it seem like it's a main line position and then take a strong stance against it? I admit it is one of my peeves from meaningful debate.

I think most people had the Twins from mid 70s to high 60s in wins. That is still more or less the pace. They could certainly collapse and fall into a top three pick, but that seriously underrates how bad some of the other teams are.
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#29 The Wise One

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 04:17 AM

Under Gardy the last few years we have seen the Twins collapse in September. I see no reason not to expect the same this season. The Twins have a very good chance of ending up with a top-5 pick again, and could lose their way into the top 3 without too much bad luck.

Don't you think they will have a better shot with Gibson, Hughes, and some of the call ups thane 2011 with Slowey, Hendriks and Diamond all pitching with ERAs over 5 and Swarzaks almost 5. How about 2012 withVasquez, Deduno, and Walters with ERAs over 5.5 and Diamond and Hendriks approaching 5.

Last year they were starting Hendriks,  Hernandez and Devries with ERAs over 9, Diamond, Pelfrey and Albers with ERAs over 5. Yes those teams faded as the arms were tired, broken, or easily hittable pitchers. The staff ERAs were all higher in September and October than the rest of the year.

 

Gene Mauch could get the team to play late in the year for those that have long memories

Edited by The Wise One, 03 August 2014 - 04:29 AM.


#30 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 12:05 PM

Isn't there a term for when you take the position of a few people on the extreme, make it seem like it's a main line position and then take a strong stance against it? I admit it is one of my peeves from meaningful debate.

I think most people had the Twins from mid 70s to high 60s in wins. That is still more or less the pace. They could certainly collapse and fall into a top three pick, but that seriously underrates how bad some of the other teams are.


Indeed. As an "optimist", I came into the season expecting 71-73 wins.