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Trade Percentages

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 08:07 AM

On last night's Twins Hangouts podcast, Jeremy and I discussed the Twins potential trade chips now that we know that they need to be Sellers. We talked about the players who could be traded and each of us posted a percent-likelihood of them being traded. You'll want to listen to that (as well as our long discussion on our updates top 10 Twins prospects list).

Below, I've shared the players and our percentage guesses, and we welcome you to discuss and post their percent-likelihood in your opinion:


Seth Jeremy
Josh Willingham 80% 60%
Kurt Suzuki 70% 50%
Kevin Correia 60% 55%
Kendry Morales 55% 70%
Brian Duensing 51% 20%
Casey Fien 10% 10%
Aaron Hicks 5% 10%
Glen Perkins 0.1% 0.1%
Jared Burton 1% 1%
Anthony Swarzak 1% 1%
Sam Deduno 1% 1%
Brian Dozier 0.1% NGH*
Trevor Plouffe 0.1% NGH*

* Not Gonna Happen

We didn't really put percentages to the last five, but their names came up in the discussion.

Listen to the show here: http://www.twinsdail...y-22-Episode-34

and then post your comments below.

#2 Badsmerf

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 08:16 AM

You guys got it right with the top 4 as the main trade candidates. I'd like to see them all get moved, but that is most likely wishful thinking. The return isn't going to look very good for anyone other than Suzuki. I hope for a top 100 prospect for him. Other than that, just try to go for long-shot upside with the rest.
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#3 nicksaviking

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 08:31 AM

Good evaluation, though I think Jeremy's odds are way too low on Suzuki. Publicly leaking that Suzuki won't agree to an extension seems to be step one in mid-season trade playbook.

I also think you guys are too low on Swarzak, Burton, Deduno and maybe even Fien. It seems to me that at the deadline and into August, middle relievers tend to be one of the most traded commodities, even while no one is speculating about them. I think it's rare that a GM won't listen on any bullpen arm aside from the closer.

#4 Dman

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 09:07 AM

I would put Willingham and Suzuki at about 90%. Teams should give up a B prospect for the .300 hitting Suzuki and the Twins appear to have no chance to sign him to an extension. I don't know what they will get for Willingham but I think teams always like some right handed power and he has a decent OBP as well. He is as good as gone.

I don't know if we can give away the rest. Correia seems untradable to me. Morales is not hitting for avg or power. I would be surprised if they go anywhere. I say 20% chance they get traded due to lack of interest.

You can trade relievers but what will you get in return? Another reliever that may or may not pan out in the lower levels? A C level prospect? The return is typically so small that is just doesn't pay to move them unless you can find a team that will overpay these are unlikely to happen. I would say 20% chance on most of those as well. Might happen but doubtful.

The Twins will trade two players anything more than that would be surprising.

#5 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 09:24 AM

I would put Correia higher than that. I think Ryan is going to be eager to move him (possibly in August) just to get him off the roster and clear space for May and/or Meyer (particularly Meyer for the 40 man roster space).

#6 ericchri

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 09:46 AM

Need a percentage on the package which includes Duensing and AB Walker and various other random parts all included together in a single trade...

#7 gmarais66

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 10:07 AM

Correia seems untradable to me.


I think the likelihood of trading Correia becomes much higher if a few contending teams experience injuries to starting pitchers. If they're desperate, they may be interested in him. Outside of that, I don't think it matters how much lipstick you smear on him, because most general managers are fully aware of his true talents (or lack of talent) .

#8 TwinsTerritory

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 10:16 AM

My percents and brief reasoning. I would guess 2 guys get traded.

Josh Willingham 75% (if they can get anything, he's gone)
Kurt Suzuki 60% (Twins are stubborn, they will only trade him for a top 200 prospect)
Kevin Correia 40% (Just don't think they'll get anything, probably in Aug. if it happens)
Kendry Morales 60% (Twins may eat $1 million to get a decent prospect)
Brian Duensing 25% (If they can get anything, he's gone next year anyways)
Casey Fien 1% (Twins like him more than others)
Aaron Hicks 1% (not much reason to sell low, unless they have reached their wit's end)
Glen Perkins 0.1% (someone would have to approach TR with a blockbuster prospect)
Jared Burton 1% (no value to playoff teams)
Anthony Swarzak 0.1% (no value to playoff teams)
Sam Deduno 0.1% (no value to playoff teams)
Brian Dozier 0.1% (see Perkins)
Trevor Plouffe 1% (doubtful, but if some team is looking for a platoon 3B it could happen)

#9 Dman

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 10:16 AM

I think the likelihood of trading Correia becomes much higher if a few contending teams experience injuries to starting pitchers. If they're desperate, they may be interested in him. Outside of that, I don't think it matters how much lipstick you smear on him, because most general managers are fully aware of his true talents (or lack of talent) .


Yeah there is always a chance he gets traded. He is a "crafty veteran". The problem is he gives up too many hits, doesn't strike out many batters and has a high ERA. With all those problems you might as well dip into AAA or AAAA and see what happens rather than trade for Coreia. Maybe the Twins will give him up for a song but another team still has to find 40 man room. He is going to be a tough sell. Believe me I hope they can do it. I just don't see it happening.

#10 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 10:37 AM

Need a percentage on the package which includes Duensing and AB Walker and various other random parts all included together in a single trade...


I'd say around 90% or so. Everyone knows that you need to add Duensing into a package to get Kris Bryant from the Cubs... No one else would get it done. Walker is a bit new to this, but I think he's the heir apparent to Duensing once he's finally traded (or released).

#11 jaimedude2

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 10:49 AM

I say this because look how little Chase Headly brought back from the Yankees and as a rental in final year of team control. The time to trade Plouffe is now when he still has team control and arbitration eligibility.
If Plouffe continues to hit well he easily becomes your most marketable trade asset. Perhaps you could package Plouffe with Willingham or Corriea to get something more than a AAAA type?
Plouffe would have the highest percentage chance of bringing back some valuable assets in potential prospects at catcher, pitching, or even outfield guys. If Dozier is a building block guy then Plouffe is expendable because of Sano and Short stop guys on the horizon.
A trade of Plouffe would weaken the team but might actually accelerate the development process of other guys and allow the team to plug holes.
The sooner they trade Suzuki the better. I think you might actually get a better deal for Suzuki in the offseason than you can right now talking extension.
His agent has him at peak output so he will want top dollar. Once the other cathcers and Suzuki hit free agency there is more competition and a chance to get a better deal. I would make Suzuki the priority to trade, even if it meant struggling through Pinto or Hermann starting the rest of the year.

#12 Shane Wahl

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 10:52 AM

A lot might come down to eating some portion of some of these contracts to basically buy better prospects. I would absolutely do that in Willingham's and Correia's cases. I don't think the Twins like to do that, though.

Anyway, I have a different perspective then some about potential returns. I find myself creating longer and longer Twins prospect lists because you never know who is going to suddenly rise from even around 50 on a team list. Case in point, Josmil Pinto. I think I might have had him around 50 in 2011 and 2012 at the beginning of each season. Now look at him. Point is that lower (and, obviously, younger) prospects can move quickly up a list, even into top 200 overall territory from the nether regions below 1,000 or even 1,500. It's a risk and all of them might be terrible, but I like the risk because it also means clearing up some space for players to play and no longer be blocked (May, Meyer, Oliveros, Achter, Tonkin, Pinto, Parmelee, etc.). The future does not involve Willingham, Morales, or Correia for sure, and Suzuki's future beyond 2015 is pretty suspect as well. So trading for 4 or more players who might develop . . . even if only one of them makes it to the big leagues, it is a win on that alone. Also, adding even more depth to the minor league system will mean that the Twins have more assets to trade down the road when they return to contention. Whenever the hell that is.

#13 chopper0080

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 11:40 AM

It has been stated on another thread but I still find it ridiculous that we aren't shopping our second most valuable trade piece in Perkins.

Willingham, Correia, Suzuki, and Morales should all be traded for whatever we can get and Perkins for any deal close to what the Padres received for Street. Get more lottery tickets and increase your chances of winning big in the future.

#14 tobi0040

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 11:46 AM

A lot might come down to eating some portion of some of these contracts to basically buy better prospects. I would absolutely do that in Willingham's and Correia's cases. I don't think the Twins like to do that, though.

Anyway, I have a different perspective then some about potential returns. I find myself creating longer and longer Twins prospect lists because you never know who is going to suddenly rise from even around 50 on a team list. Case in point, Josmil Pinto. I think I might have had him around 50 in 2011 and 2012 at the beginning of each season. Now look at him. Point is that lower (and, obviously, younger) prospects can move quickly up a list, even into top 200 overall territory from the nether regions below 1,000 or even 1,500. It's a risk and all of them might be terrible, but I like the risk because it also means clearing up some space for players to play and no longer be blocked (May, Meyer, Oliveros, Achter, Tonkin, Pinto, Parmelee, etc.). The future does not involve Willingham, Morales, or Correia for sure, and Suzuki's future beyond 2015 is pretty suspect as well. So trading for 4 or more players who might develop . . . even if only one of them makes it to the big leagues, it is a win on that alone. Also, adding even more depth to the minor league system will mean that the Twins have more assets to trade down the road when they return to contention. Whenever the hell that is.


The problem is we are putting logic into the equation and the Twins don't always use logic. Case and point, it is extremely logical to move players that are not going to be here in the future for assets and to clear space for players that will. But why have Pino and Johnson combined for 44 IP and why is Darnell rumored to be the next?

#15 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 11:50 AM

It has been stated on another thread but I still find it ridiculous that we aren't shopping our second most valuable trade piece in Perkins.


I hear this a lot and I understand the reasoning but Perkins is a good clubhouse guy, a Minnesota native and fan favorite, and a guy who signed way under market value to stay with the Twins, his childhood team.

To put it bluntly, it'd be a serious dick move to trade him less than a year after signing that contract and it's not a good message to send your other employees.

Sometimes, you have to bite the bullet and make moves that upset your employees and/or make you uncomfortable. This isn't one of those times and would be a slap in the face to the goodwill gesture Perkins made to the team this offseason.

#16 tobi0040

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 11:55 AM

I hear this a lot and I understand the reasoning but Perkins is a good clubhouse guy, a Minnesota native, a fan favorite, and a guy who signed way under market value to stay with the Twins, his childhood team.

To put it bluntly, it'd be a serious dick move to trade him less than a year after signing that contract and it's not a good message to send your other employees.

Sometimes, you have to bite the bullet and make moves that upset your employees and/or make you uncomfortable. This isn't one of those times and would be a slap in the face to the goodwill gesture Perkins made to the team this offseason.


Brock, glad to know I have one person on my team (See Trade Glen Perkins thread).

#17 Badsmerf

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 11:56 AM

I say this because look how little Chase Headly brought back from the Yankees and as a rental in final year of team control. The time to trade Plouffe is now when he still has team control and arbitration eligibility.
If Plouffe continues to hit well he easily becomes your most marketable trade asset. Perhaps you could package Plouffe with Willingham or Corriea to get something more than a AAAA type?
Plouffe would have the highest percentage chance of bringing back some valuable assets in potential prospects at catcher, pitching, or even outfield guys. If Dozier is a building block guy then Plouffe is expendable because of Sano and Short stop guys on the horizon.
A trade of Plouffe would weaken the team but might actually accelerate the development process of other guys and allow the team to plug holes.
The sooner they trade Suzuki the better. I think you might actually get a better deal for Suzuki in the offseason than you can right now talking extension.
His agent has him at peak output so he will want top dollar. Once the other cathcers and Suzuki hit free agency there is more competition and a chance to get a better deal. I would make Suzuki the priority to trade, even if it meant struggling through Pinto or Hermann starting the rest of the year.

Plouffe needs to stay to play 3b the rest of the year. He will be just as valuable or more next season. He could increase his worth a ton by hitting some more HR's to close out the season. I said in a different thread, but Plouffe has a career high LD% and career low HR/FB. Hopefully the LD% leads to more hits and a higher average while the HR/FB normalizes (this would mean a HR binge). If these happen, he looks a lot better to teams and will bring more in a trade if the Twins go that route. Now is not the time to trade him.
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#18 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 11:58 AM

Brock, glad to know I have one person on my team (See Trade Glen Perkins thread).


I get the thinking behind the desire to trade Glen but these are human beings who make commitments to organizations and sometimes - as with Perkins - there's a lot more than money behind the decision. Even dangling Perkins in trade rumors - and those trade rumors would leak if Perkins was offered freely - is pretty much like walking straight up to him and kicking him in the nuts. It's bad business on so many levels. You don't mistreat the employees who excel at their jobs and want nothing more than to work for your organization, so much so that they literally leave millions of dollars on the table to stay with you.

#19 tobi0040

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 12:07 PM

I get the thinking behind the desire to trade Glen but these are human beings who make commitments to organizations and sometimes - as with Perkins - there's a lot more than money behind the decision. Even dangling Perkins in trade rumors - and those trade rumors would leak if Perkins was offered freely - is pretty much like walking straight up to him and kicking him in the nuts. It's bad business on so many levels. You don't mistreat the employees who excel at their jobs and want nothing more than to work for your organization, so much so that they literally leave millions of dollars on the table to stay with you.


I completely agree. His last deal only averages $5.5M a year (all free agent years). He only gave the Twins that deal and he would have waited to free agency or demanded more money with any of the other teams.

So to turn around and trade him with a major selling point being that contract seems wrong to me.

I suspect he isn't going anywhere and this is a major reason why.

#20 Shane Wahl

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 12:28 PM

I get the thinking behind the desire to trade Glen but these are human beings who make commitments to organizations and sometimes - as with Perkins - there's a lot more than money behind the decision. Even dangling Perkins in trade rumors - and those trade rumors would leak if Perkins was offered freely - is pretty much like walking straight up to him and kicking him in the nuts. It's bad business on so many levels. You don't mistreat the employees who excel at their jobs and want nothing more than to work for your organization, so much so that they literally leave millions of dollars on the table to stay with you.


Exactly. Well put.