Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

MinnCentric Forums


Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Photo

Article: Trade Candidate: Kevin Correia

  • Please log in to reply
55 replies to this topic

#21 Dman

Dman

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 624 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 10:35 AM

"guys who are barely worth rotation/roster spots on a bad team are rarely seen as worthy or a rotation/roster spot on a contending team." It happens though. Correia has a 4 ERA the past month. The only team that has no pitcher in their top 5 with an ERA north of 4 is Washington. Some have the 5th starter near 5. Justin Verlander has an ERA of 4.84. Maybe we can work out a trade. I wouldn't expect to get a lot for him but I imagine there are contending teams that would be interested. For the 87 WS champion Twins he would have been much better than the 4th and below starters. 4 might be the league average but it is made up of a lot of 5's to offset the 3's.


This gives me some hope that he can be traded. I really don't care what the return is as long as it is someone that does not take up a 40 man spot.

#22 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,845 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 10:43 AM

"guys who are barely worth rotation/roster spots on a bad team are rarely seen as worthy or a rotation/roster spot on a contending team." It happens though. Correia has a 4 ERA the past month. The only team that has no pitcher in their top 5 with an ERA north of 4 is Washington. Some have the 5th starter near 5. Justin Verlander has an ERA of 4.84. Maybe we can work out a trade. I wouldn't expect to get a lot for him but I imagine there are contending teams that would be interested. For the 87 WS champion Twins he would have been much better than the 4th and below starters. 4 might be the league average but it is made up of a lot of 5's to offset the 3's.


I will suggest most trades are not based on one month ERA samples. If you can find a comparable to Correia who has been a deadline deal in the past, I will gladly listen.

#23 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,845 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 10:45 AM

I'm all for holding on to guys if the return isn't good but Correia needs to go, if only to clear 25- and 40-man roster space.


So you'd just cut Correia on July 31, if there is no offer better than some other team's fringe 40-man castoff?

EDIT: I guess if they are willing to pick up Correia's salary, you could get the fringe 40-man guy and just run him through waivers right away. (I suspect between the roster spot, the salary, and the marginal performance record, any scenario where we don't pay Correia's last 2 months salary is somewhat unlikely.)

If no one is willing to eat the salary... do you cut him then?

Edited by spycake, 23 July 2014 - 10:48 AM.


#24 Kirby_waved_at_me

Kirby_waved_at_me

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,066 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 10:56 AM

So you'd just cut Correia on July 31, if there is no offer better than some other team's fringe 40-man castoff?


Personally, I'd hang onto Correia if there are no decent offers by 7/31. May can take the revolving door #5 spot in the rotation at any time, Meyer can be added if Correia gets moved in August.

I'd consider cutting Correia only if he's still not traded by the end of August, just to add Meyer to the 40 Man - though someone else (might) already be moved by then.

Can't say it enough times, the return should be someone that doesn't take up space on the 40 Man roster, that's the whole point of trading Correia in the first place, to make room for the younger guys.

#25 AM.

AM.

    Always in Moderation

  • Members
  • 659 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 11:03 AM

I will suggest most trades are not based on one month ERA samples. If you can find a comparable to Correia who has been a deadline deal in the past, I will gladly listen.


Not really. Bud Norris? Wandy Rodriguez?

#26 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 7,463 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 11:14 AM

I'd eat his salary and get the best A ball player I could, but Brock's right...he needs to go.

#27 laloesch

laloesch

    Member

  • Members
  • 250 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 11:14 AM

Personally, I'd hang onto Correia if there are no decent offers by 7/31. May can take the revolving door #5 spot in the rotation at any time, Meyer can be added if Correia gets moved in August.

I'd consider cutting Correia only if he's still not traded by the end of August, just to add Meyer to the 40 Man - though someone else (might) already be moved by then.

Can't say it enough times, the return should be someone that doesn't take up space on the 40 Man roster, that's the whole point of trading Correia in the first place, to make room for the younger guys.


With Nolasco down and Deduno seemingly permanently demoted to the bullpen, you'd think that May could get a revolving door spot start. That said he just returned from the oblique injury and only was allowed to pitch three innings in his last start.

I can understand the front office's reluctance with Meyer as he is slowly being built up from that shoulder injury he suffered a few years ago and he has a bit of ways to go before he's ready to start at the major league level.

In fact I wouldn't be surprised at all if we don't see him in September. That said, there is absolutely NO excuse not to call up May sometime in early August.

#28 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,845 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 11:20 AM

Not really. Bud Norris? Wandy Rodriguez?


Right. While no star, Norris was better, younger, and had 2+ seasons of control left. Rodriguez was much better and was under contract for 2+ more seasons too (albeit at a larger salary).

#29 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,339 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 11:31 AM

I will suggest most trades are not based on one month ERA samples. If you can find a comparable to Correia who has been a deadline deal in the past, I will gladly listen.


Jason Marquis for Zach Walters?

#30 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,845 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 11:51 AM

Jason Marquis for Zach Walters?


Interesting, although Marquis career ERA+ at the time (and current season ERA+) was basically the same as Correia's peak ERA+. If Correia was having his 2013 season, or could reliably replicate his 2013 season, that would obviously improve his trade value (although it would obviously improve his value to the Twins too!).

Livan Hernandez is another guy I thought of, he was having a bad season for the Twins, but his career ERA+ was again as good as Correia's peak.

Ramon Ortiz might be a decent one -- a much better peak and slightly better career numbers, but he had a multi-season run of poor pitching at the time of his trade. His salary was about half that of Correia.

Both Hernandez and Ortiz were dumped on the same team (the Rockies) as August deals (Hernandez was simply surrendered on waivers). Both were also pretty surprising at the time, which doesn't bode well for predicting future similar deals!

#31 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 12,139 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 11:54 AM

So you'd just cut Correia on July 31, if there is no offer better than some other team's fringe 40-man castoff?

EDIT: I guess if they are willing to pick up Correia's salary, you could get the fringe 40-man guy and just run him through waivers right away. (I suspect between the roster spot, the salary, and the marginal performance record, any scenario where we don't pay Correia's last 2 months salary is somewhat unlikely.)

If no one is willing to eat the salary... do you cut him then?


A tough question. I'm not sure... I may cut him if no team is willing to take him by mid-August.

#32 troyhobbs

troyhobbs

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 305 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 12:02 PM

So you'd just cut Correia on July 31, if there is no offer better than some other team's fringe 40-man castoff?

EDIT: I guess if they are willing to pick up Correia's salary, you could get the fringe 40-man guy and just run him through waivers right away. (I suspect between the roster spot, the salary, and the marginal performance record, any scenario where we don't pay Correia's last 2 months salary is somewhat unlikely.)

If no one is willing to eat the salary... do you cut him then?


I wouldn't cut him if no one wants him but I wouldn't be remotely stingy about any offers for him. He's gone at the end of the year regardless (unless they pull another Pelfrey on us) and this season's relevance is all but diminished so he's nothing more than a warm body out there with no future purpose to this team.

#33 AM.

AM.

    Always in Moderation

  • Members
  • 659 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 12:04 PM

I will suggest most trades are not based on one month ERA samples. If you can find a comparable to Correia who has been a deadline deal in the past, I will gladly listen.


Joe Saunders in August two years ago for Matt Lindstrom.

#34 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,845 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 12:46 PM

Joe Saunders in August two years ago for Matt Lindstrom.


Saunders had a 102 career ERA+ at the time, and a 97 ERA+ for the season (Correia's peak). (Also lefthanded, perhaps a bonus.) Also Arizona apparently had to kick in some cash to deal him? Lindstrom wasn't free either, he was making $3.6 mil that season.

#35 AM.

AM.

    Always in Moderation

  • Members
  • 659 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 01:24 PM

Saunders had a 102 career ERA+ at the time, and a 97 ERA+ for the season (Correia's peak). (Also lefthanded, perhaps a bonus.) Also Arizona apparently had to kick in some cash to deal him? Lindstrom wasn't free either, he was making $3.6 mil that season.


You aren't going to make this easy, are you?

Joe Blanton for PTBNL in August of 2012.

#36 AM.

AM.

    Always in Moderation

  • Members
  • 659 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 01:35 PM

Saunders had a 102 career ERA+ at the time, and a 97 ERA+ for the season (Correia's peak). (Also lefthanded, perhaps a bonus.) Also Arizona apparently had to kick in some cash to deal him? Lindstrom wasn't free either, he was making $3.6 mil that season.


One more try. Joel Pineiro from the Red Sox to the Cardinals in 2007 on July 31 for a minor leaguer named Sean Danielson.

#37 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,845 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 02:12 PM

You aren't going to make this easy, are you?

Joe Blanton for PTBNL in August of 2012.


Believe me, I've thought of most of these names already!

Blanton and Pineiro are getting close, like Ramon Ortiz. Their recent records resembled Correia's, but they too had 96-97 career ERA+ marks at the time, and Blanton had a not-embarrassing playoff record to boot.

It's really tough to find a guy with a ~97 ERA+ peak getting moved at the deadline. There's just very little upside for a contending team.

#38 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,845 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 02:21 PM

Here is a report from Fangraphs, starting pitchers from 2000-2014 with career ERA- marks between 111 and 121 (centered on Correia's mark of 116):

http://www.fangraphs...ers=0&sort=14,d

Not a lot of guys targeted for trade on that list, and the few that were (Ricky Nolasco!) still had some combination of higher peaks, better current seasons, and/or younger age.

#39 tobi0040

tobi0040

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,728 posts

Posted 23 July 2014 - 07:17 PM

I wouldn't cut him if no one wants him but I wouldn't be remotely stingy about any offers for him. He's gone at the end of the year regardless (unless they pull another Pelfrey on us) and this season's relevance is all but diminished so he's nothing more than a warm body out there with no future purpose to this team.



Meyer just pitched 6 IP, 5 H, 0 runs, and 8 k tonight. His ERA is now 3.11. He has 115K in 101 IP.

The Twins seem infatuated with AAAA types and need to have at least one in the rotation at all times. So I would cut Correia right now if we can't get a prospect for him. Not 7/31, not 8/15 or 8/31. We don't need to waste Meyer inning at peak velocity, something tells me he is ready (see stats above)

#40 Jeremy Nygaard

Jeremy Nygaard

    Twins Draft Czar

  • Twins Database Managers
  • 2,511 posts

Posted 24 July 2014 - 07:09 AM

Simply cutting Correia would be ridiculous.