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Article: Trade Glen Perkins

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#21 chopper0080

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:10 AM

I do hope they trade Perkins for the reasons you mentioned but they won't. It would be hard to get back equal value.


I don't believe they will trade Perkins either but for others to say they shouldn't is pretty funny. Look at what happened with Buxton and Sano this year, Gibson two years ago and understand we are a bad team. The idea that Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Meyer and Mays are all going to come up next year and produce is delusion. Players get injured, they struggle and other things come up. If you have an older asset like Perkins, you trade him if you can get a legitimate deal for him. You keep adding pieces and deal with specific issues when you get there. Trade Kurt Suzuki. Players get hurt, they get into funks, and sometimes it all falls apart in a hurry. Get rid of them and move forward rather than clinging to the ridiculous idea that the stars will align in 2015.

If we get close to competing in 2016 then we can add a closer if one has not emerged. Then we can add a catcher if it is still a hole on the roster.

#22 Bill Parker

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:11 AM

I can't believe I'm about to be the positive one here, but "as the team slowly but surely heads to a fourth straight 90-loss campaign"? They're on pace to lose 87-88. They certainly could lose 90, or they could get just a little bit hot and finish over .500. I know that's not the point of the piece, just struck me as a weird thing to say (and more than once).

Mostly, though, I think this piece is way too down on the Twins' chances in the near future. The Twins' rotation by mid-2015 could be Hughes, Meyer, May, Gibson, Berrios. Buxton and Sano could both still be in the lineup every day by sometime in May, and I think Arcia's going to turn into a terrific hitter and Mauer's bat will come back strong after the concussion is about 18 months behind him. This could suddenly be a very good team in 2015, and to write 2016 off right now seems kind of ridiculous.

And what I think this article kind of ignores is that while dominant relievers can come from anywhere (Wade Davis?!), there aren't any guarantees, and known quantities like Perkins, who also happen to be one of the 5 or so best in baseball at what they do, are still quite valuable and hard to come by. And Perkins' deal is insanely cheap, for what he gives you, and will continue to be insanely cheap for four more years. If it were a $12 million/year Joe Nathan sort of deal, then yeah, maybe save some money and take a bit of a gamble on turning up a great reliever somewhere else before you need one. As it is, though, he's costing you next to nothing in baseball terms, and some team would have to really want Perkins (like, a package centered around a near-MLB-ready, top-100 type of prospect) before I thought it made any sense at all.

#23 chris

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:27 AM

Sorry but I couldn't disagree more. Perkins isn't keeping anyone down in his role, he isn't causing issues with the salary like Mauer and he is a 2 time all star. Sorry but Perkins salary isn't the problem on this team. If anything they need more guys like Perk who care and want to win. The Twins need less of the loveable losers that we have come to expect.

#24 DaveW

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:28 AM

That's fair and I'd personally like to see them keep Perkins. However, it does bear saying that relief pitching is frequently one of the most overvalued commodities and the Twins have always been very good at putting bullpens together for cheap.


In this day of age you really need 2-3 shut down arms in a pen ideally, if Burdi comes up and is lights out you suddenly have a very formidable pen (think of the Yankees Robertson/Rivera combo last year)

The thing at this point is as solid as the Twins pen has been this year there aren't any real "shut down" guys besides Perkins on this team, Fien is a nice player and all but in a perfect world I think you aim a bit higher for your "8th" inning guy and have Fien as your 7th inning guy.

Fien-Burdi-Perkins could be a very formidable/key part of a Twins resurgence in 2015/16/17 IMHO

Also, Perkins is probably my favorite player on the Twins team, I would personally be sad to see him go, especially if we get a couple of ho hum prospects or what not in return. As a poster mentioned above, we should only trade long term assets if we have a surplus of them in the majors/major league ready at this point. Perkins is the only Twin who strikes out more than a batter an inning.
<p>Aaron Hicks 2017 stats so far (5/17/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS 7 HR 19 RBI 6 SB 22 BBs 1.8WAR

#25 jokin

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:29 AM

The Twins have, or will have, other qualified relievers to do that job at a fraction of the price. For instance, Nick Burdi. He's still a young prospect, and yes, he might never get out of Low-A. But, by 2016 or 2017, Burdi could be a dominating back-end reliever closing games for the Twins. And, he could do it for 10% the price of Perkins. Burdi could be 90% as good as Perkins for 10% of the price. Even if you don't care about the Twins' payroll, the Twins do.


Great article...and the above hits the nail on the head. As much as most Twins fans appreciate and admire what Perk represents to the franchise and to his value-added presence in terms of viewing entertainment (I count myself in this group), most fans also agree that there is very little talent to offer to other teams in order to help the Twins get out of their now going-on-4-years morass.

The closer is often called the most overrated position in baseball (or in "sports", depending on who's writing the headline), and why not, it was the Chicago Cubs that first started using their best relievers primarily in the 9th inning (first Bruce Sutter, which led to Lee Smith, both failed starters). I think the odds are good that, like Perkins replacing Nathan, the Twins can readily find the right guy from their existing stable.

Barring calamity, Burdi will be a fast-riser in the organization, one can make an argument that one year from today he will be throwing with the Twins. But there are a slew of other good options in AAA, AA and A+ ball, as well.

I've mentioned it before, but will throw it out again, the Dodgers can readily afford taking on Perkins contract....they could really use a another shut-down LHP in their pen....and they really need a catcher. Would the return on trading Perkins and Suzuki together yield a hard-to-say-no package including SS Corey Seager in return?

#26 DaveW

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:30 AM

I can't believe I'm about to be the positive one here, but "as the team slowly but surely heads to a fourth straight 90-loss campaign"? They're on pace to lose 87-88. They certainly could lose 90, or they could get just a little bit hot and finish over .500. I know that's not the point of the piece, just struck me as a weird thing to say (and more than once).

Mostly, though, I think this piece is way too down on the Twins' chances in the near future. The Twins' rotation by mid-2015 could be Hughes, Meyer, May, Gibson, Berrios. Buxton and Sano could both still be in the lineup every day by sometime in May, and I think Arcia's going to turn into a terrific hitter and Mauer's bat will come back strong after the concussion is about 18 months behind him. This could suddenly be a very good team in 2015, and to write 2016 off right now seems kind of ridiculous.

And what I think this article kind of ignores is that while dominant relievers can come from anywhere (Wade Davis?!), there aren't any guarantees, and known quantities like Perkins, who also happen to be one of the 5 or so best in baseball at what they do, are still quite valuable and hard to come by. And Perkins' deal is insanely cheap, for what he gives you, and will continue to be insanely cheap for four more years. If it were a $12 million/year Joe Nathan sort of deal, then yeah, maybe save some money and take a bit of a gamble on turning up a great reliever somewhere else before you need one. As it is, though, he's costing you next to nothing in baseball terms, and some team would have to really want Perkins (like, a package centered around a near-MLB-ready, top-100 type of prospect) before I thought it made any sense at all.

Very well said.

I know its still early, but with the prospects coming up for 2015, along with the current crop and some payroll flexibility to fill some holes (I think Ryan did pretty damn well this off-season) I would be shocked if the Twins didn't at least "Compete" next year and finish a few games over .500 at the least, if things break right they could take a relatively winnable division.

Also don't forget getting a healthy/effective Nolasco back at some point is just like making a trade ;)
<p>Aaron Hicks 2017 stats so far (5/17/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS 7 HR 19 RBI 6 SB 22 BBs 1.8WAR

#27 DaveW

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:33 AM

the Dodgers can readily afford taking on Perkins contract....


It's worth mentioning that pretty much any team in baseball can afford taking on Perkins contract. He is on pace for a 2+ WAR season this year, which makes his 6.5 million (which he doesn't make until the last year) a freaking steal. (NTM his 4 mil and 4.6 mil in 2014/2015)
<p>Aaron Hicks 2017 stats so far (5/17/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS 7 HR 19 RBI 6 SB 22 BBs 1.8WAR

#28 DJL44

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:36 AM

Thanks for bringing up the payroll room. The Twins have over $20M coming off the books and are currently underspending compared to revenues. They can add some free agents this offseason as well as mixing in the younger players.

#29 chopper0080

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:37 AM

Sorry but I couldn't disagree more. Perkins isn't keeping anyone down in his role, he isn't causing issues with the salary like Mauer and he is a 2 time all star. Sorry but Perkins salary isn't the problem on this team. If anything they need more guys like Perk who care and want to win. The Twins need less of the loveable losers that we have come to expect.


Trading Perkins isn't about keepnig anyone down or salary concerns, it is about rebuilding a franchise and closers aren't franchise cornerstones. Selling high on older players is good business. The fact that Perkins is on a decent contract only helps his value. The idea of holding onto "All Stars" and "hometown players" is bad business if they are not moving your team forward. Look at the recent history of poor decisions the Twins have made regarding their players during their string of 90 loss seasons. The re-signed Mauer paying him huge money to move from catcher to 1B and evolve into Todd Helton, they failed to trade Willingham who has only lost trade value since and they lost Cuddyer in FA. Now they have two valuable assets in Suzuki and Perkins and they are going to hold onto them as well and we will lose 90 games again next year. Baseball is about starting pitching and impact hitters and neither Suzuki or Perkins fall into either of those categories.

#30 TheLeviathan

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:41 AM

I know its still early, but with the prospects coming up for 2015, along with the current crop and some payroll flexibility to fill some holes (I think Ryan did pretty damn well this off-season) I would be shocked if the Twins didn't at least "Compete" next year and finish a few games over .500 at the least, if things break right they could take a relatively winnable division.


We're heard this too much the last few years and with bad luck set-backs in the minors it has even less credibility. Any belief that we're going to have that many guys up by June of 2015 seems really pie in the sky to me.

Perkins should stay because he's fantastic at his job, affordable, young, and a good voice to have on this team. Hell, I'd keep him just for the hope that his modern baseball sensibilities spread.

#31 chopper0080

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:42 AM

Very well said.

I know its still early, but with the prospects coming up for 2015, along with the current crop and some payroll flexibility to fill some holes (I think Ryan did pretty damn well this off-season) I would be shocked if the Twins didn't at least "Compete" next year and finish a few games over .500 at the least, if things break right they could take a relatively winnable division.

Also don't forget getting a healthy/effective Nolasco back at some point is just like making a trade ;)


Disagree. Look at Aaron Hicks. Look at Oswaldo Arcia. Look at Kyle Gibson. We are seeing right in front of us the growing pains that young players go through when they asscend to the major league level. Are we really going to be so naive that we believe Meyer, Mays, Buxton, Rosario and Sano will not go through these same struggles in some form or another? We aren't competing in 2015, we are growing but that growth rarely translates into wins. There will be injuries, slumps, and mental errors, all which will keep our wins down despite the flashes of potential.

#32 DaveW

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:46 AM

We're heard this too much the last few years and with bad luck set-backs in the minors it has even less credibility. Any belief that we're going to have that many guys up by June of 2015 seems really pie in the sky to me.

Perkins should stay because he's fantastic at his job, affordable, young, and a good voice to have on this team. Hell, I'd keep him just for the hope that his modern baseball sensibilities spread.

Yes/no. While its never a good idea to count the prospect eggs before they hatch, it should be noted that the current crop that should be here in 2015: May, Meyer, Sano, Buxton. Absolutely dwarf those of the last 10 or so years of crops about to hit the majors. That doesn't even include guys like: Vargas, Burdi, Berrios, Rosario who could make significant impacts as well.

Toss in a couple of young kids with talent like Arcia and Pinto and you are looking at 10 guys who all have the potential to be above average major leaguers (of course not all of them will reach that, some will hopefully be studs, and some will bust) but that is an insane number of guys who have potential as early as 2015 (if not the last few months of this season)

Additionally they have enough money to bring in another 2 bats or so as well. I'd prefer they stay away from the FA pitching market unless they want to bring in a legit ace/#2 guy. Any guy that projects as a middle to back end of the rotation shouldn't even be considered since we have: Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, May, Nolasco, Pelfrey, Pino etc

Basically this looks a lot like when the Twins became a very good team in the early 2000's with core guys coming up through the system more or less like: Hunter, Cuddyer, Mauer, Morneau, Santana, Liriano etc Hopefully Perkins/Mauer are a lot like our Radke/Koskie during this resurgence of bridging the "Crappy Twins" to the "Division winning year after year Twins!"

Edited by SpiritofVodkaDave, 22 July 2014 - 08:50 AM.

<p>Aaron Hicks 2017 stats so far (5/17/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS 7 HR 19 RBI 6 SB 22 BBs 1.8WAR

#33 jokin

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:47 AM

It's worth mentioning that pretty much any team in baseball can afford taking on Perkins contract. He is on pace for a 2+ WAR season this year, which makes his 6.5 million (which he doesn't make until the last year) a freaking steal. (NTM his 4 mil and 4.6 mil in 2014/2015)


I agree, but most teams this July are looking for rentals, not long-termers, even with a team-friendly contract like Perk's.

#34 TheLeviathan

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:51 AM

May, Meyer, Sano, Buxton.


Buxton basically lost his season this year, I don't think he's up before September and probably for good reason. And as pointed out before, even guys that absolutely raked like Arcia have hard adjustments to make. 2016 seems like a far more likely scenario to have the elite crop up with the team.

If you want to comp it with old Twins seasons, 2015 might look a lot like the 2000 Twins. Right now there simply aren't enough guys on the roster to comp it to 2001. We're more in 1999 this season.

#35 Bill Parker

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:52 AM

Jeez, chopper0080. I can be an awfully negative person myself, but how do you even get out of bed in the morning?

Perkins and Suzuki are not older players -- both are in the middle of their primes and could very likely help a contending team 2 or even 3 seasons from now -- and selling Perkins right now wouldn't necessarily even be "selling high," as he's performed much better than his 2.83 ERA suggests.

There are dozens of other flaws in your thinking, IMO, but it's making me too depressed to talk about them.

#36 DaveW

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:53 AM

Disagree. Look at Aaron Hicks. Look at Oswaldo Arcia. Look at Kyle Gibson.


It's a bit of an apples and oranges scenario. Buxton, Sano and Meyer are all better prospects then those three listed.

Arcia is basically comparable to Vargas, and plus you have many more like May, Berrios, Rosario, Walker etc
<p>Aaron Hicks 2017 stats so far (5/17/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS 7 HR 19 RBI 6 SB 22 BBs 1.8WAR

#37 jokin

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:54 AM

We're more in 1999 this season.


So then that means we should "party like it", then? :th_alc:


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#38 jeffk

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:57 AM

If you narrow your goal to being very specifically "what can we do to optmize the chances of a World Series in five years", then yes, one can't really argue with this article. I also know there's a bit of one-upsmanship around this forum as to who can be the coldest, anything-to-win armchair GM.

But this prospect is so entirely depressing that I'm kinda surprised anyone sees things in terms that limited. He's one of only a handful of watchable aspects of this team, and his contract quite obviously represents a gentleman's agreement regarding not being traded. You trade him and even more people stop watching and stop caring. In fact, even if the goal is a World Series, trading him and giving people another reason to stop showing up may end up undermining you by reducing ticket sales even further.

#39 DaveW

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:58 AM

Buxton basically lost his season this year, I don't think he's up before September and probably for good reason. And as pointed out before, even guys that absolutely raked like Arcia have hard adjustments to make. 2016 seems like a far more likely scenario to have the elite crop up with the team.

If you want to comp it with old Twins seasons, 2015 might look a lot like the 2000 Twins. Right now there simply aren't enough guys on the roster to comp it to 2001. We're more in 1999 this season.

I think it's up to Buxton on when he will be up next year, all signs point to him being back at 100% It isn't too much of a reach to think he gets 2 nice months in AA to start the year and is in Minnesota sometime in June.

The thing with Arcia is we knew the whole time his strike out rate/low walk rate could bite him in the ass in the majors. Now, that is a concern with most prospects, but it was a big reason why he was never really a "top 50" type guy. Sano/Buxton should have significantly less to adjust to because of the sheer talent they bring to the table.

My point is they have 10 young guys that all have pretty solid potential to be at least above average major leaguers, 3 of those guys project to be "stars" in Sano, Buxton and Meyer. Also you have some young guys who have struggled at times but still have plenty of years/potential left like: Hicks, Pinto, Arcia. If the Twins even have average luck with the number of those guys that pan out (along with some solid FA signings) then it isn't hard to see them being at least a 85 or so win team next year with the potential to really take off if guys like Sano/Buxton come on like gangbusters.
<p>Aaron Hicks 2017 stats so far (5/17/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS 7 HR 19 RBI 6 SB 22 BBs 1.8WAR

#40 birddog

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:59 AM

Great article that does make sense, sad as that may be for Twins fans. A great closer for a team like the Twins is a luxury that only the coaches can truly appreciate. As fans we want wins, but what difference does it really make to win the 3-5 more games Perkins will provide when you have one of the ten worst records in baseball? Perkins has become a leader on a team that had none since we lost Torii, Cuddyer, and Morneau and for that fact I hope we retain him. The Twins finally have a personality--which they didn't have the past three years. They have become much more fun to watch, although I still can't watch all nine innings like I used to.

Perkins is very cheap, which seems to be the top priority for Twins management. We once again have to put our trust in Terry Ryan to decide what is best for the future. I still believe that TR is a great GM, but not as strongly as I trusted him three years ago. If we trade Perkins, the take has to rival the AJ Pierzynski trade. If not, keep him for all the factors he provides.