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Article: Trade Glen Perkins

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#181 twinsfan34

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 09:26 AM

Acquired RHP Corey Knebel and RHP Jake Thompson from the Detroit Tigers for RHP Joakim Soria.

That wasn't a bad trade. Knebel has closer potential. Thompson is 20 (Berrios) in AA.

I think Perkins would bring more than this trade. And I felt that's pretty good value of 2 guys likely to make it in MLB and Knebel could be a closer. For equivalents, Burdi would have to be up by next by May 24th to be at the same level of development.

#182 birdwatcher

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 09:36 AM

Don't look now, but the Twins are on their 23rd year of their rebuilding program


Don't look now, but once again, a dozen teams, according to their crappy records are on high-strength rebuilding programs. Another half-dozen, those only a game or three on either side of .500, are on rebuilding programs by your standards. Another half-dozen of these teams with winning records will lose very quickly in the playoffs or come up just shy of a wild card berth. Rebuilding candidates for sure if you ask their TD-type fans, right? hat leaves a half-dozen teams that, in 2014, will slot into an elite category, and you can bet your Morales shirsey that half their TD-type fans will find fault with their GM or manager. Man, we are so demanding! ;)

#183 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 09:36 AM

Aside from the fact that the players above generally aren't in lower farm levels, and possibly match or beat Buxton/Meyer/Sano in terms of MLB ETA...

Have the Twins sacrificed any MLB players to rebuild the lower farm levels? Meyer was high-A when we got him, but he was also a college draftee turning 23, a good combo for a quick ascent through AA and AAA (a la Gibson pre-surgery, or even Meyer pre-injury last year). Everybody else we've acquired has been AA or AAA, and we honestly haven't sacrificed any MLB talent the last few years in trade except maybe Span.


The word "continue" made it in there... It shouldn't because the Twins haven't traded MLB assets lately, as you said.

It was poorly worded... I should have read "people shouldn't continue to suggest that the Twins should trade MLB assets for low minors help, as that part of the rebuild phase should be over at this point".

#184 birdwatcher

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 09:52 AM

I think we can all agree we wouldn't deal Perkins right now for either the Street or Soria returns.

But, hypothetically, what about the combined Street+Soria returns? Sickels pegs that at:

1. Thompson, RHP starter, 20 y.o., just reached AA, preseason B-, midseason rank ~76-158
2. Knebel, RHP reliever, 22 y.o., already reached MLB, preseason B- and 136 rank, also midseason rank ~76-158
3. Lindsey, LHB 2B, 22 y.o., already reached AAA, preseason B ranked ~150-175
4. Alvarez, RHP reliever, 23 y.o., dominating AA, preseason C+
5. Rondon, RHB SS, 20 y.o., playing in high-A, preseason C+

(Those rough midseason ranks just indicate they were listed among 83 "considered" for Sickels' mideseason top 75. Also I'll leave off the 4th player from the Street deal as the Angels sent a similar player to the Padres in return.)

What do you think? Very rough Twins prospect equivalents, per Sickels grades/ranks:

1. Trevor May (albeit only in AA)
2. Michael Tonkin
3. Eddie Rosario
4. Zack Jones (pre-surgery, assuming he was dominating AA?)
5. Polanco/Goodrum? Less power, but great glove

No top/elite prospects, but one reliever who can slot in your pen right away plus another within a year, a young mid-rotation candidate already in the upper minors, a young 2B albeit scuffling at AAA, plus another high-A middle infielder.

Normally I'd say no to trading for more prospect depth, but... that would be a lot of prospect depth! And most of it ready or close to MLB.


This, to me, would qualify as being blown away by an offer, especially if it were Polanco.

#185 spycake

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 12:00 PM

This, to me, would qualify as being blown away by an offer, especially if it were Polanco.


I think so too.

Of course, I just combined the trade returns of two other well-regarded closers. Pretty sure we won't be seeing that offered for Perkins alone anytime soon! (Maybe paired with Duensing? :) )

Just a hypothetical example of a good trade return that doesn't feature "elite" prospects, I guess.

#186 Teflon

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 12:22 PM

Closers are still routinely over-valued based on limiting their use to 9th inning, 3-out save situations. Most competetent relief pitchers can convert a similar percentage of save situations given the ample margin for error typcial save situations encompass.

I'm still surprised that with all the current focus on undervalued resources that the habit of overpaying closers continues and that a reconsideration of using them in a more effictive way relative to pivotal game situations has not ocurred.

#187 spycake

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 12:36 PM

I'm still surprised that with all the current focus on undervalued resources that the habit of overpaying closers continues and that a reconsideration of using them in a more effictive way relative to pivotal game situations has not ocurred.


Actually I think a lot of the overpayment has waned, if it was ever a serious problem. Papelbon is kind of the gold standard for closer FA contracts, right? And he only got 4/50 a couple years ago -- that's Nolasco or Edwin Jackson money. Most guys since then are settling for far less in years and/or dollars. Closer trade returns seem fairly modest too, and limited to serious contenders.

And using them more effectively is largely unnecessary with the proliferation of other dominant bullpen arms. Often, the more flexible setup men are better pitchers than the closer! And in the postseason, many teams have been more aggressive about using their closers too (see the article I linked upthread).

#188 Teflon

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Posted 26 July 2014 - 06:56 PM

And using them more effectively is largely unnecessary with the proliferation of other dominant bullpen arms. Often, the more flexible setup men are better pitchers than the closer! 

 

But those other dominant bullpen arms are typically paid a fraction of the closer's salary.


#189 Highabove

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Posted 27 July 2014 - 03:16 AM

"I don't think it would be a very good idea to sign a guy to a four-year extension and then trade him three months into it,"  

 Glen Perkins