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Rusney Castillo

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#41 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 10:06 AM

To be fair - $70+ MM for a guy that's never played a MLB game is pretty gutsy. I think the Twins can retroactively kick themselves for not being bidders for Cespedes or Puig, who signed for quite a bit less than Castillo did and were arguably better prospects. 

 

Yasmani Tomas is the next big Cuban Free Agent coming up, if the Twins want a chance at signing him, they may need to dig into their pockets a bit.

 

I don't think the Twins' are all that risk-averse on the international market - they just haven't been interested in paying these large contracts so far.

 

Kepler, Thorpe, and Sano are three recent examples of the Twins being players on the international market. Nishioka as well, the Twins weren't the only team trying to sign him. Nishi didn't work out, though it's possible that he would be on his way to the majors this fall if the Twins had tried to start him in AA and have him earn his promotions.

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#42 Mike Sixel

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 10:11 AM

I would rather they acquire talent than sit on piles of money. Is that an unreasonable stance for a fan to take? They did not need the Cuban last year...that was the message we got.

Edited by mike wants wins, 22 August 2014 - 10:11 AM.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#43 Willihammer

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 10:15 AM

I'm sure he'll bust, these Cubans always do, especially the pricy ones.

Then the market will adjust and the Twins can make their move, signing a superstar talent at 3 years / 9 million

Well, there's that.

-Dark Star, RIP


#44 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 10:21 AM

Either way, I hope Castillo has the good sense to send boxes of cigars to Puig, Cespedes, and Abreu - if any of those three had busted, my guess is that Castillo would not be making anywhere near this kind of $$$ 


#45 iTwins

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 10:55 AM

It doesn't shock me the Twins weren't ever really in the running for Castillo (or that the Red Sox broke the bank to get him). While It's understandably frustrating when the Twins miss out on big signings, this one doesn't really get me too worked up as his position (CF) isn't THAT big of a need for the Twins in the coming years (see: Buxton, Byron).

 

Yasmani Tomas, however, fits the 'need' profile VERY well (corner OF). Bidding for Tomas will likely beat the final total for Castillo, but maybe...just maybe...the Twins will be players.


#46 DJL44

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Posted 22 August 2014 - 11:08 AM

The Twins could be bottom feeders here and try to grab Victorino on the cheap. The Red Sox have too many outfielders.


#47 RealTwinsFan357

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Posted 24 August 2014 - 03:45 PM

I feel like the practice of giving these mega contracts to players who haven't played in the MLB will eventually bite someone hard. In hindsight, of course I would have loved the Twins to have grabbed Cespedes, Yuig, or Abreu, but if this guy ends up being a bust the Red Sox are stuck with a huge contract that nobody will be willing to pick up. I wouldn't want that to happen to the Twins. I think the Twins need to figure out how to pitch before they worry about signing more offensive talent-our offense is good enough that they could compete with a competitive rotation, so that should be the first priority.


#48 birdwatcher

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Posted 24 August 2014 - 05:16 PM

Everybody loves to hate Bill Smith and he really had his faults but he did as promised when Target Field was built and that was spend some money.

 

Now with Terryback in charge we're back to penny pinching and that promised 52% of revenue is long gone. This is a chance to get a player that could help us a lot and for only money. No need to trade prospects for the guy just money. Anyone really think Jim Pohlad and Twins don't have plenty of money to spend if they really wanted to improve this team?

I'm sorry, but for the gazillionth time, the myth gets perpetuated that Bill Smith was free to spend money on a transactional basis on his own. Smith didn't set the budget. Others in the organization set the budget, and Smith had nominal influence on it! Smith didn't act alone in signing Sano, or Kepler, or anyone else. As a matter of actual fact, Smith did not enter the discussions with a single player until late in the negotiation process. Even then, he had zero authority to pull the actual trigger. Others were part of the consensus, and Smith had less influence than some of them. If you continue to insist otherwise, help me understand how you come to understand this to be true? 

 

And, for the bazillionth time, where does anyone come up with this nonsense that Pohlad promised to spend that 52% each and every year without fail? I realize the access media has done a miserable job of getting clarification on this subject, but there are a number of public statements from Jim Pohlad that make it very clear that he doesn't discuss this in terms of a promise. He's used the words "guideline", and other words, that make it at least a little clearer that the 52% thing is part of a larger and more general explanation of their financial disciplines, something almost all sophisticated organizations establish as part of their business policies. I once heard Pohlad speak briefly on the topic in person, and what I took home is that they'll look at average revenues over perhaps a few seasons, and they have as a general goal to invest (the word used) an average of 50-55%, and that this will of course vary, since the timing of these things dictates that approach. The 52% number, as I rather vaguely recall and am not completely sure of, was thrown out there as an industry benchmark for payroll spending. Based on that, I can't agree that the Twins will never spend 50% plus, possibly a great deal more, if the situation as viewed from an investment perspective, appears attractive to them. 

 

The GM will have  limited influence on this, regardless of who that GM is.

 

But I'm 100% sympathetic, and frustrated myself, that we're not in the hunt for some of these foreign players and suspect that the Twins have a way too conservative opinion as to what guys like Rusney might be worth. The Abreu case has increased my skepticism in particular, as he's looking like a relative value, at least right now.

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#49 birdwatcher

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Posted 24 August 2014 - 05:37 PM

I would rather they acquire talent than sit on piles of money. Is that an unreasonable stance for a fan to take? They did not need the Cuban last year...that was the message we got.

Guess my message machine got a garbled message. :)


#50 jokin

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Posted 24 August 2014 - 06:12 PM

 

 

But I'm 100% sympathetic, and frustrated myself, that we're not in the hunt for some of these foreign players and suspect that the Twins have a way too conservative opinion as to what guys like Rusney might be worth. The Abreu case has increased my skepticism in particular, as he's looking like a relative value, at least right now.

 

I guess a grudging admission on your part is a start. Sorry, but the whole main argument by the Twins PR department in building the stadium in the first place was that the added "revenue streams" would keep the Twins competitive, year in and year out, with the big market teams in taking a little more risk and signing a FA like Abreu every other year or so.  Talk about an understatement on your part, Abreu wouldn't have been a "relative value" to the Twins, he'd now be by far the most popular player on the team, and already well on the way to making back the entire nut on his contract in only his first season.  

Rusney appears to hold less potential than Abreu, but it's obvious that the price on available Cubans has now escalated- missed the boat again, Twins FO. As a result, even though there's a glaring need for an OFer, and oodles of $$$ to spend, I'm fairly certain that the Twins have already deemed Yasmani Tomas well out of their price range.

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Joyous, fact-based and tireless Twins fan for 40+ years, who unfortunately has been characterized as-

 

"forcing Twins fans to endure more bitter, baseless, and tiresome cheap shots about the Twins FO."


#51 Mike Sixel

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Posted 24 August 2014 - 06:36 PM

That's how markets work, undervalued at the beginning, then way over valued, then "normal". Ryan missed the undervalued part while signing 5 FA pitching contracts, while still producing an awful starting staff.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#52 birdwatcher

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Posted 24 August 2014 - 06:44 PM

I guess a grudging admission on your part is a start. Sorry, but the whole main argument by the Twins PR department in building the stadium in the first place was that the added "revenue streams" would keep the Twins competitive, year in and year out, with the big market teams in taking a little more risk and signing a FA like Abreu every other year or so.  Talk about an understatement on your part, Abreu wouldn't have been a "relative value" to the Twins, he'd now be by far the most popular player on the team, and already well on the way to making back the entire nut on his contract in only his first season.  

Rusney appears to hold less potential than Abreu, but it's obvious that the price on available Cubans has now escalated- missed the boat again, Twins FO. As a result, even though there's a glaring need for an OFer, and oodles of $$$ to spend, I'm fairly certain that the Twins have already deemed Yasmani Tomas well out of their price range.

Not a grudging admission at all. You see I admitted to being incapable of having an informed decision about whether it would have been a good deal from the start. I have to rely on you and others who are in the know about such things. I gotta hand it to you, jokin.

 

You will be unable to find a single statement from anyone associated with the Twins that the new stadium would immediately translate into them being competitive "year in and year out". That's someone else's propaganda.

 

What they DID say is that they needed to solve the economic disadvantage so they could compete. Of course it's reasonable to think that, as part of competing, signing players to large FA contracts would be something that takes place.

 

You won't catch me begrudging you your frustration about this, or about your wish for a faster timetable to competitiveness.

 

I don't  have an opinion about Rusney. I'm not qualified. I do wonder though, what Arcia would fetch were he a Cuban in Rusney's position right now. I can't fault the Twins for going that cheaper route, and I guess, for fun, I'd put a grand on the line against you, and we'll take a look at the Rusney and Arcia WAR in five years, and one of us can pony up. You game, jokin?


#53 Mike Sixel

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Posted 24 August 2014 - 08:33 PM

Or, they could have Arcia and one or two Cubans, right now, it should not be either or.
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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#54 birdwatcher

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Posted 25 August 2014 - 09:00 AM

Or, they could have Arcia and one or two Cubans, right now, it should not be either or.

100% in agreement with this.


#55 spycake

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Posted 25 August 2014 - 10:13 AM

I don't think the Twins' are all that risk-averse on the international market - they just haven't been interested in paying these large contracts so far.

 

Kepler, Thorpe, and Sano are three recent examples of the Twins being players on the international market. Nishioka as well, the Twins weren't the only team trying to sign him. Nishi didn't work out, though it's possible that he would be on his way to the majors this fall if the Twins had tried to start him in AA and have him earn his promotions.

Kepler and Thorpe got a combined $1.3 mil.

 

You're basically saying the Twins aren't risk averse, as long as they don't have to spend much money.But money is really the only risk in these cases.So yes, they are risk-averse.

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#56 birdwatcher

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Posted 25 August 2014 - 10:17 AM

You're absolutely right, they are risk-averse. It's a sound business practice.


#57 spycake

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Posted 25 August 2014 - 02:33 PM

You're absolutely right, they are risk-averse. It's a sound business practice.

Passing up Miguel Cabrera for $2 million (and virtually every other top international free agent before Sano, and before slotting / spending caps) is a sound business practice in pro baseball?

 

If you think you have ANY ability at all to somewhat discern elite level potential in amateurs (I don't, but top-level GMs and scouts should), occasionally betting a couple million on such players is (was) the best investment a baseball team can make.

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#58 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 25 August 2014 - 02:48 PM

Passing up Miguel Cabrera for $2 million (and virtually every other top international free agent before Sano, and before slotting / spending caps) is a sound business practice in pro baseball?

 

If you think you have ANY ability at all to somewhat discern elite level potential in amateurs (I don't, but top-level GMs and scouts should), occasionally betting a couple million on such players is (was) the best investment a baseball team can make.

 

I think this tends to be a bit more of a hindsight argument.29 other teams passed up Cabrera at that price, and the Twins had the 2nd highest bid on him, so it wasn't like they weren't in on it.Like any young player, they came to an idea of what they thought he'd be worth, and they went after him accordingly (and keep in mind, this happened at on a Metrodome budget, not a TF budget).There isn't a team in the league that wouldn't pass up Cabrera today at 2M, yet there aren't teams handing out 2M contracts to international free agents like candy... even the Yankees aren't doing that.Plenty of INT FAs fail, and based on the dollars they get, I think it is safe to say that there's plenty of risk there as it is, which is why Cabrera only got 2M.He was far from a sure thing at this point. 

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#59 spycake

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Posted 25 August 2014 - 03:26 PM

I think this tends to be a bit more of a hindsight argument.29 other teams passed up Cabrera at that price, and the Twins had the 2nd highest bid on him, so it wasn't like they weren't in on it.

In Cabrera's specific case, sure it's a hindsight argument.

 

But the Twins under Terry Ryan NEVER signed a major international prospect.By the time TR left in 2007, the Twins MLB payroll was $71 million, and the RECORD HIGH international amateur prospect (non-Cuban) bonus at that time was still only $2.44 million.

 

Nor did they ever pay a higher than expected draft bonus.

 

Both problems have been somewhat mitigated by new slotting/cap rules, but it's silly to pretend that the Twins and TR were not way behind the curve here, with really no one but themselves to blame.

 

(As an aside: do you have a source for the Twins being the 2nd highest bidder for Cabrera? I know they had a bid, but I do not believe it was that competitive.)

Edited by spycake, 25 August 2014 - 03:26 PM.


#60 drjim

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Posted 25 August 2014 - 03:31 PM

I recommend the Effectively Wild podcast from today, they do a good job of covering this signing.They had an interesting take on Cuban free agents that are currently in the DR, basically asking for six figures for guys that are worse than senior signs in the draft and banking on the continually expanding Cuban bubble.

 

One of these guys will pop it, could be Castillo. But they obviously said the same thing about Abreu and especially Puig and those have been great signings.

Papers...business papers.