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Competitive Balance Lottery

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#1 JB_Iowa

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Posted 21 July 2014 - 10:41 AM

mlb.com has a story on the upcoming competitive balance lottery:

http://mlb.mlb.com/n...0&vkey=news_min


The way I read this, in order to eligible to win supplemental first round picks, you have to be 1) one of the 10 smallest markets; or 2) one of the 10 smallest revenue pools.

The Twins do not fall into either of those categories.

Those who don't get supplemental first round picks will get supplemental second round picks.

The Twins and Mariners also get supplemental 2nd round picks (in addition to any leftovers from above).

The only reason I can see for the Twins getting a supplemental 2nd round pick is this:

Additionally, any other clubs that are eligible to receive revenue-sharing funds are eligible for the supplemental second-round selections.


Have the Twins' revenues fallen enough that they are now getting revenue-sharing funds again? If not, what is the reason that they are eligible for the supplemental 2nd round picks?

#2 Dman

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Posted 21 July 2014 - 10:55 AM

Yeah I don't get the Twins or the Mariners qualifying for anything unless they take pity on 60 win teams in the middle of the market. I think you are right that it must be revenue driven. The product hasn't been there and the novelty of the new stadium is wearing off. Time to get things moving Twins.

#3 DJL44

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Posted 21 July 2014 - 10:57 AM

I think it is a fair conclusion to draw that the Twins qualify for revenue sharing again. They are not guaranteed a pick. 6 teams get a 1st rounder, 6 get a 2nd rounder and there are 15 teams.

Which teams aren't eligible?
NYY, NYM, CHW, CHC, LAA, LAD, BOS, WAS, TEX, HOU, ATL, SFG, PHI, DET, TOR

The Twins seem to fit better with Colorado, Seattle, Baltimore and St. Louis than they do with the other group.

#4 JB_Iowa

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Posted 21 July 2014 - 11:07 AM

The Twins seem to fit better with Colorado, Seattle, Baltimore and St. Louis than they do with the other group.


Absolutely. Just was surprised because I think last year we had a discussion about why the Twins weren't eligible.

#5 James

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Posted 21 July 2014 - 11:45 AM

The Twins seem to fit better with Colorado, Seattle, Baltimore and St. Louis than they do with the other group.

I believe that St. Louis gets into this group due to their market size. The market size is determined by the league and TV broadcast area, I believe, but I'm not 100% sure. I do remember being very surprised by the size, but when you see where they are in the country, you can see that they have to compete for fans with several teams fairly close to them geographically. I don't believe that they ever fall into the bottom ten teams for revenue, as St. Louis fans are big into baseball.

Seeing as how the Twins market size didn't shrink at all, I'm assuming that revenues fell into the bottom ten last year. Looking at revenues from previous years, the Twins were pretty much on the bubble of the bottom ten for several years. I'm not sure if their revenue dropped, other teams' revenues went up, or both.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#6 JB_Iowa

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Posted 21 July 2014 - 11:54 AM

Seeing as how the Twins market size didn't shrink at all, I'm assuming that revenues fell into the bottom ten last year. Looking at revenues from previous years, the Twins were pretty much on the bubble of the bottom ten for several years. I'm not sure if their revenue dropped, other teams' revenues went up, or both.


I don't think they are in the bottom 10 (not in the group eligible for 1st round lottery picks) but I think that they are now eligible for revenue sharing (puts them in the second group with the Mariners).

While some of it probably relates to the drop off in revenues at TF, some undoubtedly relates to the size of the TV contracts some of the teams are receiving.

I remember when TF opened and the Twins lost revenue-sharing (for 2011, I think). Didn't take long for that to be reversed. And honestly, given the size of some of the local TV contracts, it isn't surprising.

#7 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 21 July 2014 - 12:57 PM

They are eligible for revenue sharing. So 6 of 13 get Comp A picks. The seven that missed plus Seattle and Minnesota are left for six Comp B picks. The Twins have a 67% chance of getting one, but I'm fully prepared for them to "beat the odds" and miss out.

I'm not sure of the exact formula - I know I read about it last year - and figured once the luster of TF wore off (or as the downward spiral continued) that they'd be eligible for a pick. Looks like this year is the year.

#8 James

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Posted 21 July 2014 - 01:13 PM

I don't think they are in the bottom 10 (not in the group eligible for 1st round lottery picks) but I think that they are now eligible for revenue sharing (puts them in the second group with the Mariners).

While some of it probably relates to the drop off in revenues at TF, some undoubtedly relates to the size of the TV contracts some of the teams are receiving.

I remember when TF opened and the Twins lost revenue-sharing (for 2011, I think). Didn't take long for that to be reversed. And honestly, given the size of some of the local TV contracts, it isn't surprising.

Sorry, I didn't really read the article carefully enough before my last post. I was recalling all this competitive balance draft info from memory. The Twins potential pick is absolutely from revenue sharing.

I don't know if they'll count all of the revenue for the ASG into the equation for the 2016 competitive balance draft. I'm guessing not, as that would seem a bit unfair to any team that wanted to host the game, but who knows. I still would think that the Twins may have a chance to slip into the 10 lowest revenue teams this year, which would leave them with a chance for a competitive balance draft pick in the 2016 draft.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#9 JB_Iowa

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Posted 21 July 2014 - 02:27 PM

I still would think that the Twins may have a chance to slip into the 10 lowest revenue teams this year, which would leave them with a chance for a competitive balance draft pick in the 2016 draft.


I think that's a possibility. It's really hard to overcome on the local TV revenue although I think the Twin Cities are like the 15th largest TV market. But in baseball terms, that actually makes them about 19th out of 30 since the "2 team markets" are all above them.

http://www.nielsen.c...4-DMA-Ranks.pdf

And obviously losing 11,000-12,000 through the gates each game (since 2010) doesn't help either.