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Do you still view Dozier as "untouchable" ?

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#61 kab21

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Posted 21 July 2014 - 08:39 PM

this team lost 96 games with Dozier as the primary 2b. As good as he is, if you can improve to a greater extent in the future by trading him or another player, do it. Can you get significantly worse?


This isn't how baseball works. It's a team sport and you could have the best player in the world and still lose 96 games. To build a good team you need a core of really good players (such as Dozier) supported by players that don't suck (Plouffe) while avoiding players that completely suck (Fryer, Florimon, Kubel). If you trade every good player that you have away using your argument then you will never build that core. And you will certainly delay it by a couple of years. My target would be to start building that core now and hope to get the most out of Buxton's and Sano's pre FA years instead of being at the same place we are now for 2-3 of those years.

this doesn't mean that Dozier is untouchable but rather that the Twins would have to be blown away by an offer.

#62 Sconnie

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Posted 21 July 2014 - 09:06 PM

This isn't how baseball works. It's a team sport and you could have the best player in the world and still lose 96 games. To build a good team you need a core of really good players (such as Dozier) supported by players that don't suck (Plouffe) while avoiding players that completely suck (Fryer, Florimon, Kubel). If you trade every good player that you have away using your argument then you will never build that core. And you will certainly delay it by a couple of years. My target would be to start building that core now and hope to get the most out of Buxton's and Sano's pre FA years instead of being at the same place we are now for 2-3 of those years.

this doesn't mean that Dozier is untouchable but rather that the Twins would have to be blown away by an offer.

I didn't say they should trade away every good player, just don't over value your best player. Every team needs more than one really good player. If you can turn 1 into 2 and not get significantly worse in the short term, make the trade. Depth is still a major concern, and post season success is further away than 2015 or 2016. Brian Dozier is the best 2B in the system by far, but how much of an impact does he really have? 3.8 WAR in 2013 is significant as an individual contribution, but 4 more losses or 4 more wins makes no impact in the quality of the team.

#63 drjim

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 06:00 AM

It seems their are people who say, "no, you don't go after the massive FA's, because winners are built from within."
And then, people who say, "we are not winning so their is no rush to get them up here."

I'm not accusing you of being one who says both these things, but to me I don't see how you ever get them up here if that is the case.
If you need your prospects to come up and produce to turn this thing around, but you don't want to call up your prospects until you are in a pennant race, then how will they ever get called up?

To me he is "ready" now. Does he still have some things to work on? Of course. But, he's going on 25 years old. At some point you just have to get him up here and hope that he can learn the rest at this level.
I would assume that there must be some age that is your "cutoff" (maybe not though)? How old would he have to get before you think he should just go ahead and come up with what he has, rather than wait for him to be perfect?
If that age exists, then perhaps we agree on the premise but just disagree on that age. To me, as far as elite prospects go, he's already an "old dog".


I have answered this and I don't especially want to keep hijacking a Dozier thread, but I'll answer again.

It has nothing to do with age, it has to do with the fact that Meyer has two specific things to work on - developing a passable third pitch and improving fastball command. If he can do that he is an ace. He is not there yet. If he is called up he will have some success and some failures, mlb hitters will learn how to exploit those two shortcomings. If he fails, I fear he will fall back on his stuff moreso than keep on developing the two things he needs to work on. I would personally love to see Meyer pitch for the Twins, sooner the better, it might even get me to a couple more games, but I can accept a patient approach here knowing the payoff might be bigger down the line.

All this to say that despite your attempts to generalize this, my thoughts are unique to Meyer in this case.
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#64 Willihammer

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 07:34 AM

I think for the vast majority of pitchers their career arcs more closely mirror their physical growth and decay than any fine tuning of a 3rd pitch or fastball command. Meyer is in his physical peak right now - possibly a bit past it actually. He will never throw harder or have as much rotation on pitches as he gets right now.

He can work on a third pitch when his velo drops below 95.

#65 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 07:41 AM

He can work on a third pitch when his velo drops below 95.


I don't agree with this at all. Remember, LaTroy Hawkins was once a fireballer with bad secondary stuff. He failed miserably as a starter.

Relievers can get by with two pitches. MLB hitters will catch up to starters who can't fool them with multiple pitches.

(not making the argument that Meyer should stay in the minors, just pointing out that secondary stuff is needed to succeed)

#66 Willihammer

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:14 AM

I don't agree with this at all. Remember, LaTroy Hawkins was once a fireballer with bad secondary stuff. He failed miserably as a starter.

Relievers can get by with two pitches. MLB hitters will catch up to starters who can't fool them with multiple pitches.

(not making the argument that Meyer should stay in the minors, just pointing out that secondary stuff is needed to succeed)


Garza did fine out the gate throwing just fastball-breaking ball. Its not unusual to see guys start out throwing power stuff, then as their velo drops they work on 3rd and 4th pitches and start *pitching.* In fact I'd say that's the norm among power arms.

By all accounts Meyer is just overpowering hitters right now so who gives a @!#$^ if if his changeup isn't perfectly polished?

#67 drjim

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 08:23 AM

Garza is an interesting comp.

Rushed up before he developed command and secondary pitches and struggled. Sent down for half the season came up and was just OK. Actually never had a sub 4 fip until he was traded to the Cubs.

I don't doubt Meyer would have some success, perhaps even an occasional dominant start, but he could be an ace.

Two things that also need to be considered - he is running against an innings cap which complicates things. And also the historic success of tall pitchers - they just take longer.
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#68 Willihammer

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 10:05 AM

Rushed up before he developed command and secondary pitches and struggled. Sent down for half the season came up and was just OK. Actually never had a sub 4 fip until he was traded to the Cubs.


Is it fair to say that Garza improved in minors, and at the MLB level?

#69 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 10:46 AM

By all accounts Meyer is just overpowering hitters right now so who gives a @!#$^ if if his changeup isn't perfectly polished?


Not me. I'm of the opinion that Meyer should be called up before he comes close to his innings limit. Get him 40-50 innings in MLB and shut him down for the season.

#70 drjim

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 11:44 AM

Is it fair to say that Garza improved in minors, and at the MLB level?


Of course, but the question is was he hampered by being rushed up on 2006.

I also thought his results never quite matched his talent.
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#71 spycake

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 12:27 PM

I also thought his results never quite matched his talent.


Garza was a 25th overall pick. He's produced 1300+ innings at 107 ERA+, with 14.8 rWAR and 20 fWAR, all by age 30.

I think your estimation of his talent and/or expectations for his performance do not match reality!

#72 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 12:45 PM

I also thought his results never quite matched his talent.



Re Alex Meyer: Like spycake said, Garza has gotten very good results his entire career. Was he rushed in 2006? Not sure it matters, but, by his third year (in TB) he pitched well enough into the ALCS to win an MVP and go on to the World Series, all this at age 24... The Twins are not mishandling Meyer in any way, shape, or form, but I do hope they see fit to get him some MLB experience this year and let him compete for a job in the rotation spring of next year. Which is pretty much what most of us are hoping.


Re Brian Dozier: Like I said about Perkins, keep him and build around him, but if we get an offer that would cause even Dozier to say "Wow, they offered what!?" then deal him. :)

#73 drjim

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 01:20 PM

Garza was a 25th overall pick. He's produced 1300+ innings at 107 ERA+, with 14.8 rWAR and 20 fWAR, all by age 30.

I think your estimation of his talent and/or expectations for his performance do not match reality!


I thought he had the talent to be a dominant pitcher, not just a slightly above average one, roll out a couple of 130 era+ seasons. But he is certainly good and I am impressed with his innings.

EDIT: Looking closer at his numbers by season I think I underestimated Garza a little, he has been a little better than I thought. Never as a dominant as I expected, but plenty good.

Edited by drjim, 22 July 2014 - 01:30 PM.

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#74 drjim

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 01:23 PM

Re Alex Meyer: Like spycake said, Garza has gotten very good results his entire career. Was he rushed in 2006? Not sure it matters, but, by his third year (in TB) he pitched well enough into the ALCS to win an MVP and go on to the World Series, all this at age 24... The Twins are not mishandling Meyer in any way, shape, or form, but I do hope they see fit to get him some MLB experience this year and let him compete for a job in the rotation spring of next year. Which is pretty much what most of us are hoping.


I certainly think the Twins should call up Meyer before the end of the year. I also think that if the Twins were competitive right now he would already be up in the pen. Since they are not, they have the luxury of patience to give him time to develop. That has always been my point.

I don't think Garza should have been up in 2006 and I imagine the Twins wished they weren't so desperate that they had to call him up like they did. I'm not saying for certain it impacted Garza, but it might have.
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#75 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 02:32 PM

Meyer will be up right at or shortly after July 31st (Assuming he has no injury etc set backs)
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#76 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 05:59 PM

Not me. I'm of the opinion that Meyer should be called up before he comes close to his innings limit. Get him 40-50 innings in MLB and shut him down for the season.


I guess I disagree here. I'd rather his innings limit finish in Rochester since he hasn't mastered that 3rd pitch and then add him to the 40 in September and let him get some pen work in... Just my 2 cents.

#77 kab21

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 07:11 PM

The Garza's comparison is interesting. Garza's biggest issue was that all he wanted to do is throw fastballs and he basically fought with the pitching coaches about it. To the point where he was labeled uncoachable. Ironically his best seasons (ERA and xFIP) were with the Cubs and he threw his fastball very little. However I wouldn't say that promoting him in 2006 was the wrong move. He destroyed the minors that season and in my opinion had to get knocked around at the MLB so he would listen to his coaches.

Meyer's issues are different. Garza wasn't injured the year before and Meyer does have some control issues. I would like to see Meyer up but I don't think the Twins are necessarily wrong in keeping him down. I hope that he at least gets a late season callup because the only reason not to is to reduce his service time which means that there will be an incentive to keep him down starting next season.

#78 kab21

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 07:20 PM

I didn't say they should trade away every good player, just don't over value your best player. Every team needs more than one really good player. If you can turn 1 into 2 and not get significantly worse in the short term, make the trade. Depth is still a major concern, and post season success is further away than 2015 or 2016. Brian Dozier is the best 2B in the system by far, but how much of an impact does he really have? 3.8 WAR in 2013 is significant as an individual contribution, but 4 more losses or 4 more wins makes no impact in the quality of the team.


It's very difficult to build that established core if you keep trading from that core for maybe's that maybe will become that core in 2-4 years. I would like to have a few guys in place before the cost controlled years of Buxton/Sano are being wasted on a team at the bottom of the rebuilding phase.

If anything the Twins should be looking at adding guys like Dozier that are in their prime with 4-5 years of guaranteed team control left. Not trading them away. If Dozier was set to be a FA in 2 years then I could see an argument for moving him