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Article: Deal or No Deal: Considering Contract Extensions

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#31 frightwig

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 02:49 PM

I don't think I'd extend any of them, unless the Twins really could sign Kendrys for 1-2 years at a bargain price.

Dozier seems like exactly the kind of guy you don't want to bet on, more than a couple years out. He was a 25 year-old rookie, established as a decent regular at 26, looking like an above-average 2B in his breakout year at 27. That alone would make me suspect "short peak," but when a guy has a .242 avg (and batting .227/.338/.400 against RHP) at age 27, what is he going to look like when he's a little older, a little banged up, and his bat starts to slow down even slightly?

A 2B hitting .242 is fine as long as he's drawing walks, hitting homers, and playing decent defense. Pretty good, actually. But if he's hitting .225, and .205 vs RHP, or maybe even worse... Dozier's early 30s could be a lot like Dan Uggla's. That might even be optimistic.

I think the Twins would be wise to pay Dozier year-by-year for as long as he's under club control, and either trade him sometime in the next few years, or just let him go when he becomes a free agent, and collect a draft pick.

#32 Willihammer

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 03:03 PM

How much of the stat corner is related to catching Deduno? It can be isolated with more detail. I tried to show that with the split by battery.

I'm not convinced Deduno should be singled out (his pitches are repeatable and his command of them isn't that terrible - Pinto is also no better catching Mike Pelfrey who throws nothing but straight fastballs), but for the sake of argument let's assume Deduno is the problem.

Of the 1175 non-Deduno chances Pinto is -37.1 strikes. A rate of -3.2% strikes vs. the -5.4% catching Deduno.

On a per game basis he is -4.12 strikes/game catching Deduno and -2.45 strikes/game catching everyone else.

So, he would still need to make up for .32 runs/game with the bat. He would need to carry an .377 wOBA just to break even.

#33 Dantes929

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 03:42 PM

Suzuki

The only guy worth paying full price. The vibes I get convince me that the Twins don't see Pinto as "the guy", and I'm inclined to agree. Make him the backup come September and all of next season. If Pinto can convince people he's a #1C, it will be easy to trade Suzuki.

Morales

What has he done that screams sign me? A .58 OPS screams "you lost your bet on me!" If the Twins believe they need a power hitter--get an OFer! The need is great and the in-house OFers are at best "iffy", generally AAAA-types. Let that collection of nags "duke it out" amongst themselves to fill the other corner--including the use of a platoon.

Willingham

!@#$ NO! Trade him for a useful part, or keep him if only junk is offered.

Dozier

I fully expect the Twins will offer him a deal, but it will likely be after next season. There isn't any rush.

It will not be easy to trade Suzuki when considering the amount we will need to pay to keep him here. He is having a career year. He is a solid guy but there is a reason we got him for 2 mil. He is a .255 career hitter. As tough as he looks and probably is he is not a superstar defensive catcher either.

#34 jorgenswest

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 04:04 PM

I'm not convinced Deduno should be singled out (his pitches are repeatable and his command of them isn't that terrible - Pinto is also no better catching Mike Pelfrey who throws nothing but straight fastballs), but for the sake of argument let's assume Deduno is the problem.

Of the 1175 non-Deduno chances Pinto is -37.1 strikes. A rate of -3.2% strikes vs. the -5.4% catching Deduno.

On a per game basis he is -4.12 strikes/game catching Deduno and -2.45 strikes/game catching everyone else.

So, he would still need to make up for .32 runs/game with the bat. He would need to carry an .377 wOBA just to break even.


How does Suzuki fare?

How do they project? I assume that Pinto is young enough to improve at the plate and behind the plate. I also expect Suzuki's bat to regress and decline.

#35 kab21

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 04:42 PM

Suzuki - Deal. I don't think he will want an unreasonable amount. I like Pinto but the Twins have no depth at catcher and if Pinto struggles or gets injured the Twins won't be worrying if they catcher slinks back to a .260 hitter but rather they will be worrying if their catcher hits .160.

Morales - No Deal. I'm bullish on Vargas and Morales/Mauer completely block him. I think he's a guy whose body is older than his actual age. That injury a couple of years ago really messed him up.

Willy - Deal but not now. Trade him now but look to bring him back in the offseason. I don't see him getting a multi-year contract and despite the Twins depth of OF'ers in the minors they have almost nothing at OF in the majors. Another year of an experienced middle of the order bat would be nice.

Dozier - whatever. My preference would be a deal giving the Twins cost certainty during arb years and reward Dozier with some guaranteed money (perhaps a little more front loaded than his projected arb money). BUT THEY SHOULDN'T TRADE HIM unless they are completely blown away.

#36 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 06:17 PM

What is cheaply? Or better what is realistic?


Dozier could get the following with no contract:
2015 - 3M
2016 - 6M
2017 - 9M
2018 - FA

This assumes he stays healthy and produces. He trades for guaranteed dollars and gives a bit in security. Usually these get a 1 year or two of free agency. This typically would yield a 4/20ish contract (probably a bit higher) buying out a year of FA. If he continues to improve, that contract becomes immensely valuable. They may even be able to add an option for 8-10M for a fifth year.

#37 Jim H

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 07:04 PM

We have 70 games to look at these guys, unless there is a trade. I wouldn't be in hurry to extend any of them. Maybe Willingham gets traded, I doubt if anyone else on this list gets traded. So, let's get through the season, see how everyone did, and then make some decisions. I doubt if the Twins have ruled Pinto out as a fulltime catcher, why would they? I have no idea what the Twins should do with Morales, I doubt if they do either. Let's watch Suzuki for the rest of the season, maybe get Pinto back up in August sometime. Maybe things look a bit clearer at the end of the season.

I think the Twins like Dozier a lot. But there is no big hurry to extend him or trade him or do much of anything but let him play. At some point, maybe Rosario or Polanco will get close enough to the majors and show enough that the Twins will have to make some decisions. I don't think that point is now.

#38 goulik

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 06:06 AM

Suzuki- No Deal, sell high and hope (really try) to resign in the off season for two years. We have the money and need at the position for a veteran.

Willingham- No Deal, Thank You Josh but our time together is done, Bye bye

Morales- No Deal, find a veteran in the off season that can play OF and offer the same veteran experience for young players to look up to. I like your thinking Nick but we have holes

Dozier- let's talk, higher next two years than what he'd get in arbitration for 2-4 years cheaper than what he'd get after that at a reasonable rate that could be traded or built around? Deal. (Eg. 5-6 years with the 6th being a team and/or player option w/buyout option at 4-6 million per year) higher demands? We can wait to make that deal

Bull pen FA's- No Deal, plenty of guys deserving a call up to fill these positions on the cheap and possibly/probably better over all than what we have (and what we have overall really is good)

Correia- No Deal, With all the negatives I have heard on him he really has served his Pavano role that we hoped for with him. I prefer him over Pelfrey and Nolasco at this point but the problem is we do have them and its time to call up the future.

#39 jorgenswest

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 08:49 AM

The Twins are a mid market team. They can afford to pay the arbitration cost. The difference between that number and the negotiated number isn't going to be enough to matter.

Dozier is under team control until age 32. I look forward to the big dollars he will earn based on big performance.

#40 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 09:29 AM

Agree on all four, Nick.

Minor quibbles: 1. I wouldn't complain if they extended Dozier. 2. I don't really care if it takes more money (2/$20?) to sign Morales. Money isn't now, and won't be for a while, a hindrance for this team.

#41 DAM DC Twins Fans

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 10:27 AM

My two cents:

Suzuki and Morales. Offer both 2 years 15-20 million. Keep one--first one who grabs it. Trade the other. 2015 Pinto either starts at C or DH--depending on who signs. If C--he is probably a place holder till the kids in A ball now are ready. IF DH--fine with that.

Bye Bye to Willingham--we wont get much for him--but he is not part of the future.

No rush on signing Dozier to an extension--he wont get much better than he is now.

#42 Rosterman

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Posted 20 July 2014 - 02:34 PM

Morales or Willingham...I would sign Morales, but doubt that you'll get him fir two years $15 million. He would take a one-year deal to try to rebuild his worth. Nothing but words. Will try free agency again.

I would keep Dozier in the organization longer-term than Plouffe. Why not trade Plouffe. You still got Plouffe for another reasonable year. Better than an AAA guy while you wait for Sano.

Suzuki is a bargain this year. It will try to double his salary and get it for 2-3 years. That investment is not worth it. You sell high right now. If you have him next year, you'll end up trying to trade a guy batting .250 and owed $3 million. No takers. Look at A.J.

Correia hurt his valye today. People will have to see another start. You can move him, but the return was much higher yesterday than it is tomorrow, sadly.

If the Twins can escape Nolasco's salary in any way and just reinvestment it in another free agent attempt they should. Put him on waivers in August and if anyone takes him, let him walk, even with zero return. You really don't lose anything and gain the opportunity to go after another guy in 2015. Besides, we are still stuck with Pelfrey and his salary.

#43 kab21

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Posted 20 July 2014 - 02:50 PM

I would keep Dozier in the organization longer-term than Plouffe. Why not trade Plouffe. You still got Plouffe for another reasonable year. Better than an AAA guy while you wait for Sano.

Suzuki is a bargain this year. It will try to double his salary and get it for 2-3 years. That investment is not worth it. You sell high right now. If you have him next year, you'll end up trying to trade a guy batting .250 and owed $3 million. No takers. Look at A.J.


I'm perfectly fine with Suzuki for 2 yrs and double his salary for the same reason you say to not trade Plouffe. Pinto would be the starter but there are a lot of AB's for some crappy AAA guy and if Pinto gets injured/struggles then there A LOT of AB's for some scrubs. The reality is that a .250 hitting catcher isn't that uncommon and behind Pinto is a likely .150 hitting catcher.

Correia has never had any real value. It hasn't gone up or down based on any of his starts this season. Best case scenario is that the Twins could get someone to pay his contract and get a future utility IF'er in return. That is and always has been the extent of Corriea's value.

#44 Deduno Abides

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Posted 20 July 2014 - 04:07 PM

Package Correia and Suzuki to a team needing a pitcher and a catcher, such as the Orioles and Cardinals. See if you can get one of their top prospects. Dream on Oscar Taveras. Include Arcia as a sweetener, if necessary.

Try to get a Top 50 prospect for Dozier, plus maybe a class A player with potential. Don't trade if can't get a good return.

Get whatever you can for Willingham, Morales, Burton, and possibly Duensing.

Also, free Colabello. Someone will value his ability.

Finally, stop tying up payroll in mediocre $5M to $10M players and mediocre $2M to $3M middle relievers, with "mediocre" defined as "never going to the All-Star game unless he buys his own ticket, unless he receives the Ron Coomer exemption."

#45 drjim

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Posted 20 July 2014 - 04:13 PM

Package Correia and Suzuki to a team needing a pitcher and a catcher, such as the Orioles and Cardinals. See if you can get one of their top prospects. Dream on Oscar Taveras. Include Arcia as a sweetener, if necessary.

Try to get a Top 50 prospect for Dozier, plus maybe a class A player with potential. Don't trade if can't get a good return.

Get whatever you can for Willingham, Morales, Burton, and possibly Duensing.

Also, free Colabello. Someone will value his ability.

Finally, stop tying up payroll in mediocre $5M to $10M players and mediocre $2M to $3M middle relievers, with "mediocre" defined as "never going to the All-Star game unless he buys his own ticket, unless he receives the Ron Coomer exemption."


No (trades don't work that way)

No

Yes (and I'd add even more players to the list)

Japan

That is the vast majority of free agents. Do you recommend the Twins no longer sign free agents to plug holes? And payroll is not "tied up", they have enough money to spend.
Papers...business papers.