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Article: Deal or No Deal: Considering Contract Extensions

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#1 Nick Nelson

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 09:01 AM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...ract-Extensions

#2 tobi0040

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 09:28 AM

I agree regarding Morales and Willingham. I think Dozier gets an extension one way or another. So I think doing it now and saving a little may make sense. I think you can trade him if you have cheap options and a cheap contract woudl make him more attractive.

I agree 100% with your logic regarding Kurt, but I just dont' believe the Twins will give Pinto a shot. This is basically a throw away year and he only has caught 18 of 90 games. So I think the reality is Eric Fryer has a better shot at being our catcher next year if we don't have Kurt. So a 2/15 type deal should be explored first...he probably would turn it down anyway.

#3 TheLeviathan

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 09:45 AM

IF Morales could be signed to that deal I'd probably be open to it, but my biggest concern is easily the fact that the guy looks like he's 41 out there. He makes Willingham look like a spry chicken.

That gives me a lot of pause - the rest I'm 100% with you.

#4 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 09:47 AM

Disagree on Dozier. I think you lock him up cheaply. You can always move him, and he's looking like a player that will be in high demand at that point.

#5 Seth Stohs

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 10:06 AM

Is 2/15 realistic for Morales/Boras?

#6 GSM

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 10:09 AM

Morales makes absolutely no sense what so ever. This team isn't doing anything next season either, so what's the point in putting him on another bad team to take up the DH spot and thus, take AB's away from guys who will, or should be getting them. (Vargas/Pinto/Sano?)?

I wasn't on board from the get go on the signing of Morales. It's putting lipstick on a pig. This team isn't doing anything with or without him, so what's the point?

#7 Monkeypaws

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 10:11 AM

I wonder what is the best prospect Suzuki would fetch?

Would another team part with a top prospect for him?

#8 tobi0040

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 10:13 AM

Is 2/15 realistic for Morales/Boras?


Probably not. Scott is probably trying to goat us into contract talk now that will net his client more then they think he will get on the free agent market. The Pelfrey conversation started under the same premise and we were bidding against ourselves. I am confident nobody was going to offer Mike a 2 year deal.

If he really loves it here, then 2/15 would prove it. If not, this is just more Boras bologna and we should not fall for it again.

#9 Peekay175

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 10:16 AM

Why is no one talking about trading plouffe.....? He's never gonna be better than he is now and I still believe we could get a decent return for him cause he's not a terrible 3rd baseman and player. What does everyone think about that

#10 tobi0040

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 10:25 AM

Why is no one talking about trading plouffe.....? He's never gonna be better than he is now and I still believe we could get a decent return for him cause he's not a terrible 3rd baseman and player. What does everyone think about that


You can find this discussion happening here:

http://twinsdaily.co...-Trevor-Plouffe

#11 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 10:39 AM

Would the idea of a Dozier extension be different if he were playing SS? Because his athleticism, arm, range and intangibles say he could. If on the off chance SS continues to be a problem for the team in 2015 and Gardy says what the hell and sticks Dozier back over there, arbitration, and an extension would become much more expensive I suspect.

#12 tobi0040

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 11:18 AM

Would the idea of a Dozier extension be different if he were playing SS? Because his athleticism, arm, range and intangibles say he could. If on the off chance SS continues to be a problem for the team in 2015 and Gardy says what the hell and sticks Dozier back over there, arbitration, and an extension would become much more expensive I suspect.


Based on Elvis Andrus 8 year, $118M deal, I think Dozier is worth about a billion dollars as a short stop (give or take a $100M)

#13 Sconnie

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 11:28 AM

Sign Suzuki if you can swing a reasonable two year deal. I don't think Pinto is viewed by the team as a catcher.

I think Pinto is primary DH in 2015 with Arcia getting games there occaisionally.

Which means don't resign Morales or Willingham.

Wait to extend Dozier. He's great, but I don't think you avoid much cost signing him now.

#14 mike wants wins

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 11:41 AM

I think Pinto is fine (not good yet) as a catcher, and can only grow by playing. I think Suzuki is bad at pitch framing (regardless of the exactness of how bad, everything indicates he is bad). Ergo, don't sign Suzuki, but, I'll say, I wouldn't pull my hair out if they did.

Morales.....not a fan of signing a pure DH on a team that is not contending, that is over 30. I'd go no. I think this more strongly than I do about Suzuki.

Willingham? No chance. None. Ok, tiny chance, your DH with 5% of the time OF, but again, not my first choice. But does anyone trust the manager not to play him in the OF? I'd probably rather have Willingham than Morales, because he has a tiny bit of positional flexibility.

Dozier? I'd sign him to an extension if he will do so reasonably, not cheaply, but reasonably.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#15 Brandon

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 11:48 AM

Suzuki I would sign to an extension. He does not cost too much and Pinto is the only option semi ready to replace him now. yes Pinto's got the bat but his glove is worse than Suzuki's and I guess his leadership is too as his standing with the pitchers isn't there yet.

Morales. I agree that a 1 or 2 year extension is a good idea. He'll need to really heat up in the second half and hit .300 with 15 HR if he wants a 3 year deal from anyone. not sure if I agree on your dollars though as I think it will be closer to a 2 year 18-20 million to sign him.

Willingham will be 36 next season. while someone may offer him a 2 year deal, I would be ok with a 1 year extension. no one else is ready to take over LF yet and I would rather have Hicks force the issue next time he's knocking on the door rather than have a hole there with no other options. I would not extend for 2 years. I would also be good with either Torii Hunter or Cuddyer coming back as they are free agents as well.

Dozier, depends on extension. I would do a 4 year extension with some options to gain cost control if the deal is right for both sides. but I agree it isn't necessary either.

Guerrier, I would be ok with another 1 year extension in the 1 to 2 million range maybe some incentives kicked in but no more. he has never had great peripherals but he does get results. and a good 6th inning pitcher is hard to come by. At that cost he can hold a bullpen slot until the issue is forced. we will have other openings as I agree that Swarzak has not been a great solution. he is passable and that's about it. Deunsing and Burton are going to leave eventually. But doesn't Burton have an option on his contract? I would like to see one or 2 of the young relievers in the minors come up and get a chance. Several have shown they are ready.

#16 Kwak

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 12:04 PM

Suzuki

The only guy worth paying full price. The vibes I get convince me that the Twins don't see Pinto as "the guy", and I'm inclined to agree. Make him the backup come September and all of next season. If Pinto can convince people he's a #1C, it will be easy to trade Suzuki.

Morales

What has he done that screams sign me? A .58 OPS screams "you lost your bet on me!" If the Twins believe they need a power hitter--get an OFer! The need is great and the in-house OFers are at best "iffy", generally AAAA-types. Let that collection of nags "duke it out" amongst themselves to fill the other corner--including the use of a platoon.

Willingham

!@#$ NO! Trade him for a useful part, or keep him if only junk is offered.

Dozier

I fully expect the Twins will offer him a deal, but it will likely be after next season. There isn't any rush.

#17 SD Buhr

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 12:07 PM

My problem, Nick, is we differ on the one basic premise that holds your suggestions together: That Pinto is the long term solution at catcher. I just see no evidence of that, either from Pinto when he's been behind the plate or from anything the front office has indicated about their thinking.

If he has a future in Minnesota, it's probably at DH. If he's your DH in 2015, then you sure don't want Morales around keeping him from getting PAs.

That also means you need a different answer at catcher and that makes the "NO DEAL" on Suzuki less definite. I'm all for seeing what the market for him is and if there's a good swap to be had, you do it and worry about catcher again this offseason. But basing your Suzuki decision on Pinto being your catcher is flawed thinking.

Not re-signing Willingham is a no-brainer at this point. OF and DH are going to be very crowded even without him.

With Dozier, I could be convinced either way, depending on the dollars he and his agent would command. If he's looking for really big bucks, you wait it out. Otherwise, there's little risk in an extension on a moderate contract that would be easy enough to trade, if necessary, and not debilitating to eat in a worst-case scenario.

Edited by SD Buhr, 18 July 2014 - 12:12 PM.
wow did those original paragraphs come out in a weird order


#18 jorgenswest

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 12:30 PM

More than anything else, Glen Perkins comment about Pinto seemed to sway the public opinion on Pinto. It went from needing some more work to will never be a catcher. The needing more work makes sense. He had very little time in AAA. We saw how well that went for Hicks and Parmelee.

Stating that Pinto can never be a major league catcher is quite a leap for a young player with little time to learn above AA. The Twins staff must think differently. They never tried to move him to a different position while in the minors.

It is hard to find evidence in the data that he will not improve enough defensively so that his bat can make up the difference.

He was given the job of Deduno's personal catcher this year and about half of his starts at catcher are with Deduno pitching. He didn't fare very well with Deduno. Is that surprising? An inexperienced catcher receiving a pitcher with little command. It is astounding to me that Gardenhire would think this is a good match. Deduno is a wild pitch machine and Suzuki is one of the better wild pitch preventers in the league. Matching Pinto with Deduno set both up for failure and helped to change the perception of Pinto.

If you are interested you can look at how Pinto did with other pitchers this year.

http://twinsdaily.co...ming-by-Battery

The full data is available to anyone on the Baseball Prospectus site.

After that visit Baseball Savant and look at some of the data and graphics. You can sort pitch fx data in every way one might imagine.

http://baseballsavant.com/index.php

I have captured some graphics comparing Pinto and Suzuki receiving pitches in the bottom third of the strike zone over their career. They look more similar than dissimilar. They are clearly better than Doumit. Clearly weaker than an average framer like Butera and significantly worse than a good framer like Lucroy.

#19 troyhobbs

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 12:36 PM

I sort of felt that Morales was signed as trade bait from the beginning so hopefully he starts raking and they can unload him for something good. I think the Twins will resign Suzuki but I don't think they should, Pinto can hold it down for the last leg of the season and they can sign a decent FA in the offseason for insurance. Willingham needs to go. Neutral on Dozier.

#20 halfchest

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 01:01 PM

Re: Pinto being viewed as a catcher, I think the jury is still out. I don't think the Twins sign Morales and send Pinto down if they don't think he has a chance to stick at catcher. The other factor is that Suzuki has been far better than expected so it was hard to sit him on the bench either. The team sent Pinto down to get work at Catcher and he's played half of his games there since being sent down. He played every game he played last year at Catcher in both the minors and majors.

I truly think his DH starts this year were more a result of Suzuki hitting so well then him being so awful. It will be really telling to see where he plays at Catcher the rest of this year. I think worst case the Twins think of him as a part time catcher/DH but I don't think they're abandoning hope that he could start there at some point. I guess only time will tell.

That said, I wouldn't have any problem with reupping Suzuki for another year or two. I also wouldn't mind if they trade him as long as they get one decent prospect back.