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Mauer Contract 4th Worst in Baseball

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#21 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 09:16 AM

IMO it all just sort of evens out, these guys who get monster contract type deals were producing at insanely high levels when making the MLB minimum and low 7 figures for several years so you are sort of paying for that past production more or less. At the end of the day it is what it is and the teams have been setting the market price (and it's not just the large markets any more) mid market teams like the Tigers, Twins have been participating as well.

I mean Mauer put up a 6.2 WAR while making 500k or so back in the day, so it makes it easier for me at least to spend 20 million on an occasional down year for Mauer (due to injury).


And that's why I think The Twins signing Mauer seems like a fair deal.

The Angels are paying Pujols for his success with St. Louis, the Tigers are still paying $30Million this year for Prince Fielder's success with Milwaukee -- and he's on another team's 60 day DL right now...

The Twins at least are paying for Mauer's success as a Twin.

#22 SgtSchmidt11

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 10:00 AM

It's true, everyone saw the Fielder, Pujols, & Hamilton contracts as win now moves. The monster contracts always come back to bite the team in the rear, no exceptions.

http://www.fangraphs...gent-contracts/

This article was about how essentially signing Cano to a reasonable contract on $/WAR would have needed the club to sign him for 35M a year, but for only 5 years. What team is ready to hand out THAT contract?

#23 Brandon

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 10:06 AM

That article is someone else's opinion. I remember the Astros signed a player to a 6 year 100,000,000 contract granted he was a marginal OF but could consistently drive in 100 runs a year. I forgot the guys name he played on the Whitesox for years. but he drove in 100 runs a year the first 5 seasons then age caught up to him the last one then he was traded for a prospect and that was considered one of the worst signings of all time and all the player did was play the same as before. Now some think that was a bad contract and it was an overpay IMO but getting the 100 RBIs consistently from a player who was from the area may have been worth it to them.

Just like the Mauer contract will likely be worth it to us but he will have a few down years when hurt. It is an overpay for the talent but its also a payment to the Twin Cities and Hennepin county for building the stadium.

#24 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 10:10 AM

That article is someone else's opinion. I remember the Astros signed a player to a 6 year 100,000,000 contract granted he was a marginal OF but could consistently drive in 100 runs a year. I forgot the guys name he played on the Whitesox for years. but he drove in 100 runs a year the first 5 seasons then age caught up to him the last one then he was traded for a prospect and that was considered one of the worst signings of all time and all the player did was play the same as before. Now some think that was a bad contract and it was an overpay IMO but getting the 100 RBIs consistently from a player who was from the area may have been worth it to them.

Just like the Mauer contract will likely be worth it to us but he will have a few down years when hurt. It is an overpay for the talent but its also a payment to the Twin Cities and Hennepin county for building the stadium.


Carlos Lee! http://www.fangraphs...ios-el-caballo/

Edited by Kirby_Waved_At_Me, 17 July 2014 - 10:19 AM.


#25 tobi0040

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 10:15 AM

It's true, everyone saw the Fielder, Pujols, & Hamilton contracts as win now moves. The monster contracts always come back to bite the team in the rear, no exceptions.

http://www.fangraphs...gent-contracts/

This article was about how essentially signing Cano to a reasonable contract on $/WAR would have needed the club to sign him for 35M a year, but for only 5 years. What team is ready to hand out THAT contract?


I think what often gets lost is the marketing value Joe Mauer has to the Twins. He is the face of the franchise, I bet 60% of the jerseys at TF are his (at least non-retro or 5+ year old jerseys).

The Twins would have taken a huge hit if they did not sign him and he has to bring in 2-5M in incremental value a year, bottoms in the seats, kids that watch, girls that watch, people that buy his jersey and would otherwise not.

Maybe the day the deal was signed the Twins viewed this contract as $18M for a player and $5M in marketing?

Edited by tobi0040, 17 July 2014 - 10:22 AM.


#26 spycake

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 12:20 PM

I think he will be able to come back strong, and will get back to 4+ WAR seasons which more or less make him "worth it"


4 WAR seasons at 1B will basically require him to get back to his career average slash line (.320/.401/.461) and play 150 or more games every year. Replacement level is pretty high for 1B.

Above 4 WAR is almost out of the question, I would think.

Given that he's on pace for 1 WAR in 2014, I think 3+ WAR seasons might be the better target.

#27 Willihammer

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 02:43 PM

I actually think there's an outside shot Mauer is dealt this offseason. To the Dodgers. Here's why:

Mauer is a 1B. Mauer has a down season. Mauer has no post-concussion symptoms at all. Mauer misses catching.

Joe talks to the Twins brass. They still don't want Mauer to catch. Too much money, too risky.

Dodgers miss the playoffs. Dodgers crucify, among others, AJ Ellis.

Dodgers call Twins, they want a catcher. They have money. "Just ask Joe, will ya?" They say.

Twins tell Mauer "you can catch... in LA."

Mauer is Lebron. He must chose - will he stay or will he go?

Too farfetched?

#28 spycake

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 02:59 PM

I actually think there's an outside shot Mauer is dealt this offseason. To the Dodgers. Here's why:


I don't wish to run Joe out of town, but I actually think that would be fascinating. Would you foresee the Twins eating any money at all in such a deal?

#29 kblack1011

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 03:25 PM

I don't wish to run Joe out of town, but I actually think that would be fascinating. Would you foresee the Twins eating any money at all in such a deal?


The Twins would either have to eat a lot of money or take back some equally bad contracts. No way they trade him, can't take the PR hit along with eating 20+ million.

#30 jokin

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 03:38 PM

The Twins would either have to eat a lot of money or take back some equally bad contracts. No way they trade him, can't take the PR hit along with eating 20+ million.


If the return included Joc Pedersen and Corey Seager (along with some bad contracts), I'd be more than willing to take the hit.:D

#31 adorduan

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 03:54 PM

The Cardinals decision on Pujols and the Twins decision on Mauer are perfect examples of why the Cardinals are a successful franchise and the Twins are not.

#32 Taildragger8791

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 04:02 PM

The Cardinals decision on Pujols and the Twins decision on Mauer are perfect examples of why the Cardinals are a successful franchise and the Twins are not.


In fairness, the Twins were looking at Mauer at age 26-27 coming off an historic season for his premium defensive position, and in the beginning of his prime. Pujols was (at least) 31-32 and already showing physical decline, and received a deal well beyond what even Mauer got.

Edited by Taildragger8791, 17 July 2014 - 04:12 PM.


#33 Thrylos

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 04:38 PM

The Twins would either have to eat a lot of money or take back some equally bad contracts. No way they trade him, can't take the PR hit along with eating 20+ million.


OK, lets tease that out:

The Mauer contract ends in 2018 (his age 35 season) and is $23M per, so there is $92M remaining.
The "best" of the big Dodgers' contracts (other than Kershaw's for obvious reasons) is Kemp's, which ends in 2019 (his age 34 season) and is $20M per, so there is $100M remaining.

Pretty comparable $. Pretty comparable ages, Pretty comparable careers. Both had their career best MVP type seasons at age 26 and then declined. Both coming back from injuries.

Would you trade Mauer for Kemp as is? Would the Twins do it? Would the Dodgers do it?

I am not sure.

But what I am sure is that Kemp's contract is as bad as Mauer's and the Dodgers have at least 3 contracts (Gonzales, Crawford, Greinke) which are worse than Mauer's...
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#34 curt1965

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 04:38 PM

I actually think there's an outside shot Mauer is dealt this offseason. To the Dodgers. Here's why:

Mauer is a 1B. Mauer has a down season. Mauer has no post-concussion symptoms at all. Mauer misses catching.

Joe talks to the Twins brass. They still don't want Mauer to catch. Too much money, too risky.

Dodgers miss the playoffs. Dodgers crucify, among others, AJ Ellis.

Dodgers call Twins, they want a catcher. They have money. "Just ask Joe, will ya?" They say.

Twins tell Mauer "you can catch... in LA."

Mauer is Lebron. He must chose - will he stay or will he go?

Too farfetched?

I always love Willihammer's posts! His "out of the box" thinking is consistently well thought out, reasonable, and make me always stop and think. I believe his scenerio would have a real chance of happening, if not for these:
1.) I think he is still having some effects from his concussion(like Morneau's season last year).
2.) I think he genuinly loves playing in Minnesota, and just can't fathom him playing in LA or anywhere, for that matter.
3.) I think he wants to spend time with his twin daughters.

Just my opinion.

#35 kblack1011

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 05:29 PM

OK, lets tease that out:

The Mauer contract ends in 2018 (his age 35 season) and is $23M per, so there is $92M remaining.
The "best" of the big Dodgers' contracts (other than Kershaw's for obvious reasons) is Kemp's, which ends in 2019 (his age 34 season) and is $20M per, so there is $100M remaining.

Pretty comparable $. Pretty comparable ages, Pretty comparable careers. Both had their career best MVP type seasons at age 26 and then declined. Both coming back from injuries.

Would you trade Mauer for Kemp as is? Would the Twins do it? Would the Dodgers do it?

I am not sure.

But what I am sure is that Kemp's contract is as bad as Mauer's and the Dodgers have at least 3 contracts (Gonzales, Crawford, Greinke) which are worse than Mauer's...


How is Greinke and Gonzales worst contracts than Mauer? Greinke was an All Star and Gonzales makes less money and is having a better year.

Kemp is a good comparison, he make less per year but has more years. Both have some injury history and are having down years. I don't see how the Twins could take the PR hit with that trade and the Dodgers don't need a first baseman. If their was any hope Mauer could catch, the Twins would move him back, but they don't even consider him a 3rd string emergency catcher. But on a pure baseball move, with the Twins roster it easier to replace the 1B and they need a CF.

#36 Thrylos

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 05:49 PM

How is Greinke and Gonzales worst contracts than Mauer? Greinke was an All Star and Gonzales makes less money and is having a better year..


Greinke is the same age as Mauer, influences about a fifth of the games Mauer influences, has contract that ends the same time as Mauer's and is paid more than Mauer.

Gonzalez' contract is $2M less than Mauer's, but he is 1 year older, has declined faster than Mauer and (other than this season) has not been nearly as good as Mauer.

Would you trade Mauer for either Gonzalez or Greinke straight up?
There is no way I would.
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#37 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 06:00 PM

The Cardinals decision on Pujols and the Twins decision on Mauer are perfect examples of why the Cardinals are a successful franchise and the Twins are not.


Which decision by the Cards? The Cardinals' last reported offer to Pujols was 10/$220.

#38 kblack1011

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 06:11 PM

Greinke is the same age as Mauer, influences about a fifth of the games Mauer influences, has contract that ends the same time as Mauer's and is paid more than Mauer.

Gonzalez' contract is $2M less than Mauer's, but he is 1 year older, has declined faster than Mauer and (other than this season) has not been nearly as good as Mauer.

Would you trade Mauer for either Gonzalez or Greinke straight up?
There is no way I would.


I'd trade for Greinke in a second, you get a #1 starter for an extra 2.5 million per year. Gonzalez is a wash, no need to consider the trade. Gonzalez maybe a year older, but plays 160 games a year. Mauer is more likely to breakdown than Gonzalez based on history.

#39 adorduan

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:12 PM

Which decision by the Cards? The Cardinals' last reported offer to Pujols was 10/$220.


When another team decided to overpay for Pujols they let him walk.

#40 adorduan

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:36 PM

Greinke is the same age as Mauer, influences about a fifth of the games Mauer influences, has contract that ends the same time as Mauer's and is paid more than Mauer.

Gonzalez' contract is $2M less than Mauer's, but he is 1 year older, has declined faster than Mauer and (other than this season) has not been nearly as good as Mauer.

Would you trade Mauer for either Gonzalez or Greinke straight up?
There is no way I would.


Declined faster in what way? And Mauer's career OPS is .862 and Gonzalez's is .861.