Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
The same great Twins Daily coverage, now for the Vikings.

The Store


Photo

Mauer Contract 4th Worst in Baseball

  • Please log in to reply
55 replies to this topic

#1 DedunoTheMuffinMan?

DedunoTheMuffinMan?

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 16 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 07:49 AM

Dave Cameron of FG writes that the Twins will be overpaying Mauer by $60 million over the remainder of his contract, making his contract even worse than Prince Fielder's: http://msn.foxsports...de-value-071614 .


Maybe I'm an optimist, but I think that Mauer is just in a slump. Cameron himself says that Mauer is only a year removed from a 5.2 WAR season, so I hope when he comes off the DL he shows the OBP prowess we all love. His rising K rates and falling BB rates are a concern, and he is definitely worth less at 1st, but I think once he figures out how to hit against the shift he will return to normal.

#2 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,051 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 07:53 AM

I'd guess he's in the top 10 worst contracts someplace. The precise rank is up for debate, but so far, he's looked less good at 1B defensively than I expected, and the offense is plain to see. I would expect more from him offensively, but I recall that most projection systems had him higher than than this, and we all thought the projections were too low......
Lighten up Francis....

#3 SpiritofVodkaDave

SpiritofVodkaDave

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,126 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:35 AM

I think he will be able to come back strong, and will get back to 4+ WAR seasons which more or less make him "worth it"
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald

:whacky028::whacky028: :whacky028::whacky028:

#4 Kirby_waved_at_me

Kirby_waved_at_me

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 678 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:39 AM

His current contract is not so great in $/WAR context, his prior contract years from 2007-2010 were much better - He was making about $1.5 Million per WAR, which is pretty good compared to the big contracts other players had at that time.

I see his current contract as PR, and payment for past performance. He only made $400,000 in 2006 when he won his first batting title.

#5 SgtSchmidt11

SgtSchmidt11

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 196 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:39 AM

I don't think it was fourth worst, I think it was fourth most worst contract at being able to be traded (or essentially in "dead" money). Perhaps I'm wrong but I would still prefer Mauer over B.J. Upton and their respective contracts.

#6 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,051 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:43 AM

It is true, that was a trade value article....not just a pure dollar/WAR article.
Lighten up Francis....

#7 SpiritofVodkaDave

SpiritofVodkaDave

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,126 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:44 AM

His current contract is not so great in $/WAR context, his prior contract years from 2007-2010 were much better - He was making about $1.5 Million per WAR, which is pretty good compared to the big contracts other players had at that time.

I see his current contract as PR, and payment for past performance. He only made $400,000 in 2006 when he won his first batting title.

In 2010, 2012 and 2013 his WAR/$ average was right in line with what it should be, which is a very nice thing for that large of a contract. in 2011 and 2014 so far he obviously is falling much below.

What does this tell us:

When healthy Mauer is more than earning his contract. When he is injured/hurt he is struggling to live up to it. Moving forward if he stays relatively healthy it won't be looked as a bad contract in context, however if he has more injury set backs it will obviously hurt.'

Ideally he comes back soon, starts to mash and can put up 2.5 WAR or so the rest of the season.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald

:whacky028::whacky028: :whacky028::whacky028:

#8 JB_Iowa

JB_Iowa

    Cynical Oldie

  • Members
  • 3,733 posts
  • LocationNorthwest Iowa

Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:50 AM

When healthy Mauer is more than earning his contract. When he is injured/hurt he is struggling to live up to it. Moving forward if he stays relatively healthy it won't be looked as a bad contract in context, however if he has more injury set backs it will obviously hurt.'


I think that has to be tempered somewhat by the fact that in the past he was catching.

I'm not overly concerned about the Mauer contract. It is what it is -- the only problem I see is that he needs to be healthy enough and play well enough that the majority of Minnesota fans are still in his camp (ignore the loud mouth naysayers that will always post on the Strib).

Do I think he's easily tradeable? Of course not. But I always thought he had more value in Minnesota than anywhere else.

#9 Kirby_waved_at_me

Kirby_waved_at_me

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 678 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:52 AM

The other thing is that the Twins would likely not consider trading Joe Mauer. Even if they did consider it, Mauer has 10 and 5 rights, which gives him a no-trade clause.

The numbers show that the Twins would have a hard time trading Mauer given his contract, but I think the point is a bit moot since Mauer's not likely to be going anywhere in the next 4 years.

It's a similar thing with a guy like Glen Perkins - I think the extension he signed was an understanding between both player and club that he's here for the foreseeable future.

I wonder if the Twins ever seriously considered trading Puckett or Hrbek - Hrbek never had a huge contract, but he certainly had an aging slugger phase prior to his retirement. They could have elected to try flipping him for prospects, but I get the sense that the Twins are fiercely loyal to their hometown favorites.

Edited by Kirby_Waved_At_Me, 17 July 2014 - 08:55 AM.


#10 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,051 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:56 AM

The articles are about how tradeable a guy is, not if he should be traded. Like, what could you get for a trade for him? The articles are on Fangraphs, and are based on the trade value articles for the NBA done by Bill Simmons.
Lighten up Francis....

#11 Taildragger8791

Taildragger8791

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 21 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:59 AM

Have any of these $23+ million per year contracts ever not been a bad deal for the team after the first 2-3 years? I don't really understand how the values got so inflated when the players rarely live up to them. Is it just the big market teams over-inflating contracts because they can, and thus everyone else suffers?

#12 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Yes

  • Members
  • 4,286 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 09:00 AM

It is true, that was a trade value article....not just a pure dollar/WAR article.


Could be. But context is really important here, and cannot take contracts (and money spent) out of context. Target Field opened in 2010. Mauer's extension was announced in Spring Training that season, the season after his ridiculous MVP season, the day that Nathan was announced out for the season with TJ.

Let's say that the Twins' did not do the extension and their first season in Target Field coincided with potentially Mauer's last season in Minnesota. Rewind. What do you think that the reaction of the Twins' fans would had been if that were the case? Rewind a bit more to the Puckett contract impasse (and he was from Chicago and not St. Paul) and you might get some clues.

The Twins had to do that contract. No ends, ifs or buts. Retrospect is 20/20, but even as is, I think that the Twins are better with Mauer and his contract long term than without Mauer starting in 2011 and the Cities in near riot situation in 2010...
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#13 SpiritofVodkaDave

SpiritofVodkaDave

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,126 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 09:00 AM

but I get the sense that the Twins are fiercely loyal to their hometown favorites.


Yeah, and while it's not going to please the sabre or bust community of fans, as a fan it is nice to actually see some of your favorite players play their entire career with your favorite team.

It really sucks to see Morneau in a Rockies jersey, I know there wasn't a space for him on this team but he is another guy I would have liked to see stay a life long Twin. Mauer in anything but a Twins uniform would be just as weird as seeing Jeter wearing a Houston Astros jersey.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald

:whacky028::whacky028: :whacky028::whacky028:

#14 SpiritofVodkaDave

SpiritofVodkaDave

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,126 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 09:02 AM

Could be. But context is really important here, and cannot take contracts (and money spent) out of context. Target Field opened in 2010. Mauer's extension was announced in Spring Training that season, the season after his ridiculous MVP season, the day that Nathan was announced out for the season with TJ.

Let's say that the Twins' did not do the extension and their first season in Target Field coincided with potentially Mauer's last season in Minnesota. Rewind. What do you think that the reaction of the Twins' fans would had been if that were the case? Rewind a bit more to the Puckett contract impasse (and he was from Chicago and not St. Paul) and you might get some clues.

The Twins had to do that contract. No ends, ifs or buts. Retrospect is 20/20, but even as is, I think that the Twins are better with Mauer and his contract long term than without Mauer starting in 2011 and the Cities in near riot situation in 2010...

Agreed.

I think if the Twins failed to sign Mauer this org would be in a much much worse shape then it is now. Nobody would be coming to the park and the Twins would still be perceived as "cheap"

The reality of large contracts are more often then not you are going to have a couple years where the player doesn't produce (typically towards the end), but hey, it is what it is. It's not like I am footing the bill for him anyways.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald

:whacky028::whacky028: :whacky028::whacky028:

#15 Taildragger8791

Taildragger8791

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 21 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 09:03 AM

I'm not criticizing Mauer here, but have any of these monster contracts ever returned close to full value for the team? They always seem to turn into considerably overpaid deals after a few years, and sometimes before the ink dries. I don't really understand how the values got so inflated when the players rarely live up to them. Is it just the big market teams over-inflating contracts because they can, and thus everyone else suffers?

#16 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Yes

  • Members
  • 4,286 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 09:05 AM

Mauer in anything but a Twins uniform would be just as weird as seeing Jeter wearing a Houston Astros jersey.


Or Killebrew a Royals' jersey, or Carew an Angels' jersey, or Kaat a White Sox' jersey
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#17 SpiritofVodkaDave

SpiritofVodkaDave

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,126 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 09:07 AM

I'm not criticizing Mauer here, but have any of these monster contracts ever returned close to full value for the team? They always seem to turn into considerably overpaid deals after a few years, and sometimes before the ink dries. I don't really understand how the values got so inflated when the players rarely live up to them. Is it just the big market teams over-inflating contracts because they can, and thus everyone else suffers?


IMO it all just sort of evens out, these guys who get monster contract type deals were producing at insanely high levels when making the MLB minimum and low 7 figures for several years so you are sort of paying for that past production more or less. At the end of the day it is what it is and the teams have been setting the market price (and it's not just the large markets any more) mid market teams like the Tigers, Twins have been participating as well.

I mean Mauer put up a 6.2 WAR while making 500k or so back in the day, so it makes it easier for me at least to spend 20 million on an occasional down year for Mauer (due to injury).
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald

:whacky028::whacky028: :whacky028::whacky028:

#18 Kirby_waved_at_me

Kirby_waved_at_me

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 678 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 09:09 AM

Yeah, and while it's not going to please the sabre or bust community of fans, as a fan it is nice to actually see some of your favorite players play their entire career with your favorite team.

It really sucks to see Morneau in a Rockies jersey, I know there wasn't a space for him on this team but he is another guy I would have liked to see stay a life long Twin. Mauer in anything but a Twins uniform would be just as weird as seeing Jeter wearing a Houston Astros jersey.


Or, say, Ichiro in Yankee pinstripes. I guess the Mariners have some measure of revenge with Cano being on their side. I still think seeing Ichiro in a Yankees Uniform is weird weird weird. I haven't had the chance to talk to any Mariners fans about it, but I'm guessing it was a bitter pill to swallow no matter how much they felt it was the "right" move.

I agree that the Twins really had no choice in signing Mauer to the big contract. I don't think they would ever say they regret it. At the time, it almost seemed like a bargain!

Mauer has time to right the ship and get healthy again. Whether he plays at his former level or not, in mind the contract has been/will be worth it for the Twins.

#19 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,051 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 09:10 AM

That is not hte point of the article. The point is, right now, how tradeable is that player RIGHT NOW. It is not an article about the past, it is an article about right now.

He is not, nor am I, arguing that the contract was bad back then.

It is an article about how tradeable a player is right now. Nothing more or less.
Lighten up Francis....

#20 SpiritofVodkaDave

SpiritofVodkaDave

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,126 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 09:15 AM

That is not hte point of the article. The point is, right now, how tradeable is that player RIGHT NOW. It is not an article about the past, it is an article about right now.

He is not, nor am I, arguing that the contract was bad back then.

It is an article about how tradeable a player is right now. Nothing more or less.


I realize what the article was about.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald

:whacky028::whacky028: :whacky028::whacky028:

#21 Kirby_waved_at_me

Kirby_waved_at_me

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 678 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 09:16 AM

IMO it all just sort of evens out, these guys who get monster contract type deals were producing at insanely high levels when making the MLB minimum and low 7 figures for several years so you are sort of paying for that past production more or less. At the end of the day it is what it is and the teams have been setting the market price (and it's not just the large markets any more) mid market teams like the Tigers, Twins have been participating as well.

I mean Mauer put up a 6.2 WAR while making 500k or so back in the day, so it makes it easier for me at least to spend 20 million on an occasional down year for Mauer (due to injury).


And that's why I think The Twins signing Mauer seems like a fair deal.

The Angels are paying Pujols for his success with St. Louis, the Tigers are still paying $30Million this year for Prince Fielder's success with Milwaukee -- and he's on another team's 60 day DL right now...

The Twins at least are paying for Mauer's success as a Twin.

#22 SgtSchmidt11

SgtSchmidt11

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 196 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 10:00 AM

It's true, everyone saw the Fielder, Pujols, & Hamilton contracts as win now moves. The monster contracts always come back to bite the team in the rear, no exceptions.

http://www.fangraphs...gent-contracts/

This article was about how essentially signing Cano to a reasonable contract on $/WAR would have needed the club to sign him for 35M a year, but for only 5 years. What team is ready to hand out THAT contract?

#23 Brandon

Brandon

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 795 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 10:06 AM

That article is someone else's opinion. I remember the Astros signed a player to a 6 year 100,000,000 contract granted he was a marginal OF but could consistently drive in 100 runs a year. I forgot the guys name he played on the Whitesox for years. but he drove in 100 runs a year the first 5 seasons then age caught up to him the last one then he was traded for a prospect and that was considered one of the worst signings of all time and all the player did was play the same as before. Now some think that was a bad contract and it was an overpay IMO but getting the 100 RBIs consistently from a player who was from the area may have been worth it to them.

Just like the Mauer contract will likely be worth it to us but he will have a few down years when hurt. It is an overpay for the talent but its also a payment to the Twin Cities and Hennepin county for building the stadium.

#24 Kirby_waved_at_me

Kirby_waved_at_me

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 678 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 10:10 AM

That article is someone else's opinion. I remember the Astros signed a player to a 6 year 100,000,000 contract granted he was a marginal OF but could consistently drive in 100 runs a year. I forgot the guys name he played on the Whitesox for years. but he drove in 100 runs a year the first 5 seasons then age caught up to him the last one then he was traded for a prospect and that was considered one of the worst signings of all time and all the player did was play the same as before. Now some think that was a bad contract and it was an overpay IMO but getting the 100 RBIs consistently from a player who was from the area may have been worth it to them.

Just like the Mauer contract will likely be worth it to us but he will have a few down years when hurt. It is an overpay for the talent but its also a payment to the Twin Cities and Hennepin county for building the stadium.


Carlos Lee! http://www.fangraphs...ios-el-caballo/

Edited by Kirby_Waved_At_Me, 17 July 2014 - 10:19 AM.


#25 tobi0040

tobi0040

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,304 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 10:15 AM

It's true, everyone saw the Fielder, Pujols, & Hamilton contracts as win now moves. The monster contracts always come back to bite the team in the rear, no exceptions.

http://www.fangraphs...gent-contracts/

This article was about how essentially signing Cano to a reasonable contract on $/WAR would have needed the club to sign him for 35M a year, but for only 5 years. What team is ready to hand out THAT contract?


I think what often gets lost is the marketing value Joe Mauer has to the Twins. He is the face of the franchise, I bet 60% of the jerseys at TF are his (at least non-retro or 5+ year old jerseys).

The Twins would have taken a huge hit if they did not sign him and he has to bring in 2-5M in incremental value a year, bottoms in the seats, kids that watch, girls that watch, people that buy his jersey and would otherwise not.

Maybe the day the deal was signed the Twins viewed this contract as $18M for a player and $5M in marketing?

Edited by tobi0040, 17 July 2014 - 10:22 AM.


#26 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,889 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 12:20 PM

I think he will be able to come back strong, and will get back to 4+ WAR seasons which more or less make him "worth it"


4 WAR seasons at 1B will basically require him to get back to his career average slash line (.320/.401/.461) and play 150 or more games every year. Replacement level is pretty high for 1B.

Above 4 WAR is almost out of the question, I would think.

Given that he's on pace for 1 WAR in 2014, I think 3+ WAR seasons might be the better target.

#27 Willihammer

Willihammer

    ice cream correspondent

  • Members
  • 2,951 posts
  • LocationSaint Paul

Posted 17 July 2014 - 02:43 PM

I actually think there's an outside shot Mauer is dealt this offseason. To the Dodgers. Here's why:

Mauer is a 1B. Mauer has a down season. Mauer has no post-concussion symptoms at all. Mauer misses catching.

Joe talks to the Twins brass. They still don't want Mauer to catch. Too much money, too risky.

Dodgers miss the playoffs. Dodgers crucify, among others, AJ Ellis.

Dodgers call Twins, they want a catcher. They have money. "Just ask Joe, will ya?" They say.

Twins tell Mauer "you can catch... in LA."

Mauer is Lebron. He must chose - will he stay or will he go?

Too farfetched?

#28 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,889 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 02:59 PM

I actually think there's an outside shot Mauer is dealt this offseason. To the Dodgers. Here's why:


I don't wish to run Joe out of town, but I actually think that would be fascinating. Would you foresee the Twins eating any money at all in such a deal?

#29 kblack1011

kblack1011

    Member

  • Members
  • 52 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 03:25 PM

I don't wish to run Joe out of town, but I actually think that would be fascinating. Would you foresee the Twins eating any money at all in such a deal?


The Twins would either have to eat a lot of money or take back some equally bad contracts. No way they trade him, can't take the PR hit along with eating 20+ million.

#30 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 7,029 posts

Posted 17 July 2014 - 03:38 PM

The Twins would either have to eat a lot of money or take back some equally bad contracts. No way they trade him, can't take the PR hit along with eating 20+ million.


If the return included Joc Pedersen and Corey Seager (along with some bad contracts), I'd be more than willing to take the hit.:D