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Article: Trade Candidate: Kurt Suzuki

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#81 jokin

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 10:24 PM

Posted Image Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp Posted Image
Like Denard Span and Ben Revere?

I understand the Ryan doesn't move players when some people want him to move them (never mind that peoples' notion of "sell high" is often unreasonable) but let's not pretend that he doesn't move some players at precisely the right time. Span's value collapsed almost immediately after the trade and Revere wasn't far behind him.



Exactly, all those people clamor in for May and Meyer forget how they got to the Twins.


I supported both of the trades, but having said that.....Great storyline about Span and Revere, but not necessarily true..... in terms of fWAR:

Denard Span fWAR in:

2012 w/ Twins: 3.5
2013 w/ Nats: 3.5 (league leader in Triples w/ 11).
2014 w/ Nats: 2.1 in fWAR and 2.3 bWAR, which extrapolates full-season out to somewhere +/- close to 3.5 WAR once again. Span had a career-high 46 XBH in 2012, 43 XBH in 2013, extrapolating out in 2014 over 162 games, and using his current 35 XBH, Span is due for 57 XBH.

Revere missed nearly half the season last year, he was one of the 5 hottest batters in multiple major categories over the previous 2.5 months before he sustained a season-ending injury. His OPS+ went up with Philadelphia in 2013 from 89 to 93. His batting slash-line is almost identical over 2012, 2013, 2014. The big difference in terms of fWAR is the "collapse" in his defensive ranking*, which really represents more a position change than anything resembling a collapse.

*(Curiously, Span's drop in bWAR in 2013 was also due primarily to a BRef downgrading of Span's defense, while meanwhile, under fWAR, Span's defensive value actually increased in 2013 with Washington).

Edited by jokin, 24 July 2014 - 08:02 AM.


#82 The Wise One

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 03:36 AM





I supported both of the trades, but having said that.....Great storyline about Span and Revere, but not necessarily true..... in terms of fWAR:

Denard Span fWAR in:

2012 w/ Twins: 3.5
2013 w/ Nats: 3.5 (league leader in Triples w/ 11).
2014 w/ Nats: 2.1 in both fWAR and bWAR, which extrapolates full-season out to somewhere +/- close to 3.5 WAR once again. Span had a career-high 46 XBH in 2012, 43 XBH in 2013, extrapolating out in 2014 over 162 games, and using his current 35 XBH, Span is due for 57 XBH.

Revere missed nearly half the season last year, he was one of the 5 hottest batters in multiple major categories over the previous 2.5 months before he sustained a season-ending injury. His OPS+ went up with Philadelphia in 2013 from 89 to 93. His batting slash-line is almost identical over 2012, 2013, 2014. The big difference in terms of fWAR is the "collapse" in his defensive ranking*, which really represents more a position change than anything resembling a collapse.

*(Curiously, Span's drop in bWAR in 2013 was also due primarily to a BRef downgrading of Span's defense, while meanwhile, under fWAR, Span's defensive value actually increased in 2013 with Washington).


If Reveere has value it is as a centerfielder, which he is not as good at as compared to RF by defensive WAR. Right fielders with a 93 OPS+ is not really very good for your offense. Reverw's .300 woba puts him near the bottom of qualified centerfielders. Byy WAR he is amongst the worst qualified outfielders in the league. What made him valuable 2 years ago was perceived upside. That upside gets lower with every passing year, injured or not.

Spaan was in the league long enough to know that he would be what he is. He still is what he was except for one thing. He will no longer be cheap nor young. With those two factors he loses trade value.

#83 Seth Stohs

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 10:57 AM

Jon Heyman reporting that both the Cardinals and Orioles are looking at Kurt Suzuki... not that this is surprising, of course.

http://www.cbssports...her-kurt-suzuki

#84 Winston Smith

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 11:21 AM

Jon Heyman reporting that both the Cardinals and Orioles are looking at Kurt Suzuki... not that this is surprising, of course.

http://www.cbssports...her-kurt-suzuki


Get Sisco from the O's a left handed hitting catcher to pair with Pinto.

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#85 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 03:05 PM

Get Sisco from the O's a left handed hitting catcher to pair with Pinto.


I'd be quite happy with this. Here's the O's list. Cisco is in low A right now, but he's got an .869 OPS to date as a 19 year old, and I think the Sal league is technically a bit tougher than the MWL. The only downside is that he's at least 3 years out. Eudardo Rodriguez might be a nice buy low candidate as well. He's 21 in AA and a hard throwing lefty. Hunter Harvey is another one I'd target. He's flat out dominating the SAL league right now at 19.

As for the Cards, I think I like the O's options better. Piscotti might not be a bad deal, but I'm not liking the lack of power. Reyes is pretty wild, but could be a really good pitcher. There's quite a bit of risk here. Kaminski might not be a bad get, but his K rate is really low as well. Could be a Stewart type thing here as he's dominating the MWL.

#86 Dman

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 03:19 PM

I'd be quite happy with this. Here's the O's list. Cisco is in low A right now, but he's got an .869 OPS to date as a 19 year old, and I think the Sal league is technically a bit tougher than the MWL. The only downside is that he's at least 3 years out. Eudardo Rodriguez might be a nice buy low candidate as well. He's 21 in AA and a hard throwing lefty. Hunter Harvey is another one I'd target. He's flat out dominating the SAL league right now at 19.

As for the Cards, I think I like the O's options better. Piscotti might not be a bad deal, but I'm not liking the lack of power. Reyes is pretty wild, but could be a really good pitcher. There's quite a bit of risk here. Kaminski might not be a bad get, but his K rate is really low as well. Could be a Stewart type thing here as he's dominating the MWL.


I'd be fine with any one of those options. Maybe throw something else in to sweeten the pot? Like maybe a 25 year old reliever, possible closer coming back from injury? tic

#87 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 04:28 PM

If the Twins could get Hunter Harvey or Eduardo Rodriguez for Kurt Suzuki, that would be outstanding. For nothing more than a cheap free agent signing to boot. It would be a steep price, but if TR can swing it--nice.

#88 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 04:29 PM

Harvey #58 and ERodriguez #61 on the BP prospect lists last off-season. Doubt either would be attainable for Suzuki.

#89 JB_Iowa

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 04:47 PM


#90 Winston Smith

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 05:04 PM


Doesn't make much sense to maybe win few more games. Gardy's life time job on shaky ground?

If you don't know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else.

 

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#91 Dman

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 06:14 PM



Someone help me with the logic here. It is best to sign him to an extension that is so high that you could likely sign him in the off season for less? They are afraid if they trade him someone else will extend him? Or they are afraid no matter what they do they can't outbid other teams for his services in FA?

How will the catchers we have get better unless they get experience? I am not understanding the extension logic for such a high price.

#92 jorgenswest

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 06:19 PM

Any leaked news that the Twins are looking to keep or even extend Suzuki might give a little more leverage.

#93 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 07:38 PM

Both the Cardinals and Orioles have comp picks.

Harvey's stock has improved (up to #35 in BA's midseason Top 50), while Rodriguez has dropped off a bit (only in two of four's personal Top 75).

The Twins tried to get Rodriguez from the Orioles for Willingham last August. Would the Orioles still have interest in Hammer with Steve Pearce playing well? Maybe Suzuki and Hammer could bring back Rodriguez and the Comp B pick?

The Cardinals have three appealing pitchers - Marco Gonzalez, Rob Kaminsky and Alex Reyes. One of them and the Comp A pick for Suzuki and the Comp B pick? Comp picks can only be traded once, though, and that chip seems to be one they want to play for David Price.

If the Twins had to throw in a lower-level pitcher (or a mid-level reliever) and/or money to make the pot sweeter, I'd still pull the trigger.

The Twins would be making a huge mistake not cashing in their biggest asset.

#94 drjim

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 07:46 PM

Mlbtraderumors just said St. Louis is close on AJ.

On one hand you can get mad at Ryan for not acting sooner. On the other the reality is the Cardinals probably weren't going to give up anything of substance.

#95 JB_Iowa

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 07:53 PM


#96 chopper0080

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 08:17 PM


Classic Twins. Be terrified of losing a 32 year old catcher.

#97 drock2190

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 08:22 PM

If the Twins sign Suzuki for a multi year deal it will be a mistake.

You can take that to the bank.

#98 jorgenswest

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Posted 25 July 2014 - 09:33 PM

If the other teams don't value Suzuki enough to offer a moderate return, it should also be a sign that he won't be valued at the level of Ruiz or Salty in the market this winter.

#99 mudcat14

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Posted 26 July 2014 - 06:46 AM

The Twins should actively target the Dodgers with Suzuki. Offense from their catchers is non-existent, and they have a slew of interesting prospects. Maybe Suzuki and Duensing or another bullpen arm would make them listen on Joc Pederson.

#100 drjim

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Posted 26 July 2014 - 07:25 AM

The Twins should actively target the Dodgers with Suzuki. Offense from their catchers is non-existent, and they have a slew of interesting prospects. Maybe Suzuki and Duensing or another bullpen arm would make them listen on Joc Pederson.


Could even add Adam Brett Walker.
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