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Article: Trade Candidate: Kurt Suzuki

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 16 July 2014 - 11:23 PM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...ate-Kurt-Suzuki

#2 tmerrickkeller

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Posted 16 July 2014 - 11:50 PM

I may be dis-remembering this, but it struck me at the time that we accumulated a lot of talent for Rick Aguilara under this same philosophy. Trade him for prospects once the season revealed its underbelly, and then sign him again in the winter. Rinse and repeat. If Kurt feels both the joy of playing for this team and the promise of its future, he will understand the motives behind a move and come right back at season's end.

It is a win-win-win - we get a prospect or two during a rebuilding year, we get to see extended time for his potential replacements, and he is right back on the team for a market contract a few months later.

Clearly, there are risks involved - he gets a good deal from another team in free agency that we can't/won't match, or we find that Josmil is ready for the show and don't want to pay starter money to Kurt S for multiple years to back him up, but the underlying premise is sound. It is based, purely, on relationships, and I'm in no position to judge his relationship to the front office or their allure to him.

#3 twinstalker

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 12:07 AM

Please, oh please, Terry Ryan, try to sell someone at the high point for once. I realize Joe Mauer isn't coming up to replace Suzuki like we had with AJP, but it will be okay in the end if you sell Suzuki. If it's not okay, it's not the end.

#4 h2oface

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 12:17 AM

The trade should be Pinto. While he may hit in the show, it is still a gamble, and I don't see how he can be trusted with a young pitching staff. No way. I see the next good Twins catcher to be Mitch Garver (one of three finalists along with the winner, Stuart Turner, for the 2013 Johnny Bench award and who played with New Mexico, and is right behind Turner in Cedar Rapids), who is wielding an impressive bat - much more so than Turner - and actually IS a catcher very close to Turner with the glove. Suzuki, even if he regresses all the way to around .250 at the plate, would be great to transition the young pitchers coming up, as well as be a leader and a back up ala Mike Redmond for a couple years after Garver and Turner take over. Pinto......... not a catcher that can lead and control the game. Having him be the catcher for the young staff scares me (and Perkins). He is a DH at best, and that is only if he proves to hit in the show consistently. I see a lot of holes in his swing, and I am not even betting on that.

Edited by h2oface, 17 July 2014 - 12:21 AM.


#5 Shane Wahl

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 12:17 AM

It would be a major mistake to waste this opportunity to pick up a prospect potentially up into the 150-250 range, but certainly in the 250-400 range, especially with regard to the Cardinals or Orioles. Patrick Wisdom and Carson Kelly come to mind from the Cardinals. Tim Berry and Parker Bridwell come to mind for the Orioles.

I do think that it would be a mistake to then re-sign Suzuki in the offseason. But even in such a scenario, it would be a complete waste to let him finish this season as a Twin. Give the rest of the season to Pinto and Herrmann and get over it. See what happens there for two+ months and then decide about Suzuki and others in the offseason. This is an OBVIOUS decision to make to add depth to the minor league system.

#6 Shane Wahl

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 12:20 AM

The trade should be Pinto. While he may hit in the show, it is still a gamble, and I don't see how he can be trusted with a young pitching staff. No way. I see the next good Twins catcher to be Mitch Garver (one of three finalists along with the winner, Stuart Turner, for the 2013 Johnny Bench award who played with New Mexico), who has a way better bat and actually IS a catcher very close to Turner with the glove. Suzuki, even if he regresses all the way to around .250 at the plate, would be great to transition the young pitchers coming up, as well as be a leader and a back up ala Mike Redmond for a couple years after Garver and Turner take over. Pinto......... not a catcher that can lead and control the game. He is a DH at best, and that is only if he proves to hit in the show consistently. I see a lot of holes in his swing, and I am not even betting on that.


Interesting take. One could also see value in trading Garver and/or Turner before they turn into pumpkins (I think this will happen to Turner. Garver is good, but they are, for whatever terrible reason, not promoting him to Fort Myers right now).

#7 ND_TROOPER_GUY

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 12:38 AM

Hopefully we can trade off several veterans this year. Morales, Correia, and perhaps Willingham. However, I'm inclined to keep Suzuki. I recall from an earlier post that the free agency catcher options are very underwhelming next year. If he signs for a modest 2 year extension say in the 10-12 range or maybe one year plus a team option I would not complain. With several young pitchers coming up in the next year of so I believe the veteran backstop would be a wise investment. Even if he ends up backing up Pinto next year I still feel he's a wise investment.

#8 Kwak

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 04:35 AM

Wow. i love these threads that are premised: "If he signs a team-friendly contract"--one/two years at jouyneyman's wages. Recall Willingham received 3 years and $21MM. Suzuki will be in demand this offseason. Suzuki "served his time" (one-year, make-good contract with a poor team)--and made good. The demands will be commensurate, 4-years and $32MM (and I might be low). After the Twins FO fantasy contract offers are removed from the equation, now what do you do with Suzuki? Pay full price, and solve your "Catcher problems", seek another one-year "fallen star" (and pray), or grind out a solution internally biting your tongue?

#9 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 04:55 AM

yeah, Suzuki is going to want a big contract this offseason. He'd be crazy not to want that.

#10 old nurse

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 05:15 AM

Wow. i love these threads that are premised: "If he signs a team-friendly contract"--one/two years at jouyneyman's wages. Recall Willingham received 3 years and $21MM. Suzuki will be in demand this offseason. Suzuki "served his time" (one-year, make-good contract with a poor team)--and made good. The demands will be commensurate, 4-years and $32MM (and I might be low). After the Twins FO fantasy contract offers are removed from the equation, now what do you do with Suzuki? Pay full price, and solve your "Catcher problems", seek another one-year "fallen star" (and pray), or grind out a solution internally biting your tongue?


McCann is the only catcher in recent history to get more than a 3 year contract. McCann>>>Suzuki
Saltalamacchia got 7m/year. I don't think inflation has hit that hard in salaries.
Agent demands could be high, that is what they try. Recent history would hint at a little lower price tag, and no more than 3 years.

#11 Thrylos

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 06:39 AM

I'm an economics major, so you know I believe in the concept of Buying Low and Selling High. Suzuki's value will likely never be higher. He is putting up career-best numbers at age 30, so to expect him to maintain this value through the rest of the 2014 season (much less for 2-3 more years) is not realistic.


This
2014 is for Suzuki what 2012 was for Willingham and Diamond. The issue here is that pretty much everyone knows that it is likely and aberration and that will affect the return. It will matter if someone is desperate enough to part with prospects.

Re-signing him this off-season will be paying high for the Twins, which means paying a likely back up player starter wages (and starting him because they are paying him like one.) That would be buying high. Not advisable...

#12 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 06:48 AM

Please, oh please, Terry Ryan, try to sell someone at the high point for once.


Like Denard Span and Ben Revere?

I understand the Ryan doesn't move players when some people want him to move them (never mind that peoples' notion of "sell high" is often unreasonable) but let's not pretend that he doesn't move some players at precisely the right time. Span's value collapsed almost immediately after the trade and Revere wasn't far behind him.

#13 tobi0040

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 06:53 AM

This
2014 is for Suzuki what 2012 was for Willingham and Diamond. The issue here is that pretty much everyone knows that it is likely and aberration and that will affect the return. It will matter if someone is desperate enough to part with prospects.

Re-signing him this off-season will be paying high for the Twins, which means paying a likely back up player starter wages (and starting him because they are paying him like one.) That would be buying high. Not advisable...


I think you offer him 2/16. If he takes it great. If he doesn't you move him. Will he take this? Probably not. But you never know. He has made a decent amount of money and doesn't strke me as a guy with three lambo's in his garage.

We absolutely can't let him play out this year without an extension.

I understand the sell high logic, I get it. Will Suzuki hit .300 and be an all star the next two years? NO. That is not the important point here. But my fear is, who will catch for the Twins next year?

The free agent list, beyond Russell Martin is downright scary. We don't trust Pinto, it is clear as day. And we need to drop the fantasy about playing a catcher in A ball next year. Not going to happen.

I have seen this franchise say great things about catchers in the low minors, only to not trust them at the big league level over and over again.

IMO, we have Eric Fryer behind the plate next year with 300-400 at bats. That is the risk. The ideal trade partner would be both a contender with a hole at catcher and some catching depth at about AA, so we can give them Suzuki for a guy that could catch for us about June of next year.

Edited by tobi0040, 17 July 2014 - 06:55 AM.


#14 TheLeviathan

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 06:57 AM

Suzuki is the one expiring veteran I'm ok with them retaining. But given the catcher need out there...I sure hope we explore trading aggressively as well.

#15 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 07:19 AM

Suzuki is the one expiring veteran I'm ok with them retaining. But given the catcher need out there...I sure hope we explore trading aggressively as well.


Yeah. I'm pretty wishy-washy on trading Suzuki because the Twins have no catching depth and the free agent market looks brutal this offseason.

But, without a doubt, the option should be explored.

#16 kdrupp09

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 07:34 AM

Yeah. I'm pretty wishy-washy on trading Suzuki because the Twins have no catching depth and the free agent market looks brutal this offseason.

But, without a doubt, the option should be explored.


I think given what the Twins have in the system and what will be available this offseason the only way the Twins trade Suzuki is if they get blown away on an offer. I think if you get offered a top 10 prospect and possibly another Top 20 Top 30 prospect than you make the trade. However, I don't see someone giving that good of an offer for a rental with no guarantee of next season. So long way around, I think Suzuki does not get traded and ultimately signs an extension with the team.

#17 mike wants wins

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 07:36 AM

the more I look at his defense, the less I like re-signing him. I've made that point in the Suzuki thread, so I won't repeat it here.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#18 jokin

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 07:41 AM

Like Denard Span and Ben Revere?

I understand the Ryan doesn't move players when some people want him to move them (never mind that peoples' notion of "sell high" is often unreasonable) but let's not pretend that he doesn't move some players at precisely the right time. Span's value collapsed almost immediately after the trade and Revere wasn't far behind him.


To tell the whole story though, it was Washington and Philadelphia that initiated the trade talks in both cases, not Ryan. Based on that history, I hope St Louis or Baltimore, or both, and others like the Jays, start a bidding war for Suzuki's services and the Twins net another future potential ace currently playing at A+ or AA ball & another serviceable bat or arm.

#19 jokin

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 07:44 AM

the more I look at his defense, the less I like re-signing him. I've made that point in the Suzuki thread, so I won't repeat it here.


What is the alternative in your scenario?

AJ?
Internal?
Another FA on another one-year deal?

#20 tobi0040

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 07:47 AM

To tell the whole story though, it was Washington and Philadelphia that initiated the trade talks in both cases, not Ryan. Based on that history, I hope St Louis or Baltimore, or both, and others like the Jays, start a bidding war for Suzuki's services and the Twins net another future potential ace currently playing at A+ or AA ball & another serviceable bat or arm.


If we get an Alex Meyer type prospect in rookie ball or A ball, you send Kurt on his way and figure it out next year. If the haul is a Scott Diamond, Sean Gilmartin type, pay the guy some money to catcher here for the next few years.

#21 mike wants wins

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 07:50 AM

I'd roll with Pinto and Herrman (sp?) or Fryer. Get Pinto up here and developing/adjusting. At some point, you need to hand the team over to the young players. I understand that others disagree, and that's cool with me. It won't depress me if they sign him, but I think people are over looking the pitch framing issue because they don't buy the stat (when it is probably the most accurate and realiable defensive stat, actually).

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#22 birdwatcher

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 07:55 AM

What is the alternative in your scenario?

AJ?
Internal?
Another FA on another one-year deal?



How do you know this, and what relevance is it? Ryan was pursuing pitching talent, and it was by this initiative that he landed May and Meyer, correct? Washington and Philadelphia didn't thrust those key prospects upon Ryan.

#23 mike wants wins

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 07:57 AM

birdwatcher brings up a point......they might be able to trade for a catcher, but I don't have any idea who that could be.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#24 birdwatcher

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 07:59 AM

Obviously I meant to include the previous post, my bad.

As for the attractiveness of some team's #10 prospect for Suzuki? In most systems, this prospect is a back-of-the-rotation guy or a 4th OF type. Is that really selling high? What constitutes an overwhelming return for Suzuki?

#25 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:05 AM

As for the attractiveness of some team's #10 prospect for Suzuki? In most systems, this prospect is a back-of-the-rotation guy or a 4th OF type. Is that really selling high? What constitutes an overwhelming return for Suzuki?


Yep. This is why I'd strongly consider holding on to Suzuki. Do the Twins need another Sean Gilmartin in the organization if it means they put Eric Fryer behind the dish in 2015?

If the offer borders on a top 100 - maybe even top 150 - prospect, then you listen. If it's more organizational filler with marginal upside, keep Kurt and extend him for 2/$14m.

#26 goulik

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:08 AM

I say offer Suzuki and one of Gilmartin, Johnson, Darnell, Pino to sweeten the return or any number of relievers... We have some we could spare

#27 halfchest

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:09 AM

We got Miguel Sulbaran for Drew Butera . . . who I just checked on and is doing quite well in the FSL this year. He looked like a good return for Drew back when we got him and still is looking like a solid return for an all glove no bat catcher.

Just makes me think we could get something pretty solid for Suzuki and would be the right move to trade him. I don't want them to give him up for peanuts but I think we're looking at one solid prospect at the very least for him.

#28 Dman

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:15 AM

I think if you can get a B level prospect for him you call that a successful deal. No one is going to give up the farm for a two month rental of a catcher with defensive holes in his game.

To hang onto Suzuki to the end of the season and get nothing at all for him seems like an odd strategy to me. You win a few more games but no future gain.

Suzuki has no incentive to sign an extension when the market is ripe (i.e. shortage of FA catchers) for him to make a killing this off season. Are the Twins known as a team that outbids and overpays in years and dollars for a player? I don't think so. Get something while you can. If the Twins are serious about wanting him back they can overpay for him in the off season.

#29 Thrylos

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:22 AM

I'd roll with Pinto and Herrman (sp?) or Fryer. Get Pinto up here and developing/adjusting. At some point, you need to hand the team over to the young players. I understand that others disagree, and that's cool with me. It won't depress me if they sign him, but I think people are over looking the pitch framing issue because they don't buy the stat (when it is probably the most accurate and realiable defensive stat, actually).


Agreed (other than the Fryer part). Despite what is been said by various Twins' people, the numbers (framing studies -believe them or not, and the numbers of passed balls/WPs/throws to CF in attempted steals) between Suzuki and Pinto are not that different. Fryer's are even worse in a very small sample size. Herrmann lit up AAA this season and was ranked as the Twins' organization best defensive catcher by the BA few seasons back. Suzuki might know how to call a game better, but you don't learn how to call an MLB game, unless you catch an MLB game (or 100.)

Pinto and Herrmann with minimum salary in 2015 with a .780 OPS or so, sounds better to me than Suzuki with $8M in 2015 with a .690 OPS (his career average) or so. He is a catcher, he is 30. I'd rather see them invest that money to fix other holes for 2015 at this point (like a marquee outfielder.)

Rewinding to 1991 the Twins won with an all hit, no glove catcher who was fundamental for that team.

Edited by Thrylos, 17 July 2014 - 08:24 AM.

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#30 mike wants wins

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:32 AM

the postiest post every by thrylos.....agree 100%

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)