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The Future of Trevor Plouffe

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#61 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 01:50 PM

Since May 1, Plouffe is hitting .218/.272/.379. That doesn't instill much confidence that he's going to have a big second half of the season...

.258 BABIP which indicates he is getting somewhat unlucky.

FWIW since July 1st he has a .777 OPS, Plouffe if nothing else is a streaky hitter who can get white hot at times and ice cold at times. I don't think its out of the realm to think he couldn't get hot again for a decent chunk of the 2nd half.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald

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#62 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 01:53 PM

It's also encouraging that Plouffe has improved his defense every year as well, according to the advanced metrics he is now a little above average. Couple that with a guy who can give you a 95-105 OPS+ and that gives you some value.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald

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#63 jokin

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 02:33 PM

I'm not bashing Plouffe at all. He's an adequate starter and I'm all for sticking him at third until Sano is ready.

But a Koskie comp? That's a bad comparison. Koskie was a very good player. Plouffe is an adequate starter.


FWIW, in Klaw's midseason Top 50 Prospect review of Sano today, coupled with his #11 prospect ranking, he also still concludes that he plays 1B or RF in the majors.

#64 Halsey Hall

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 02:41 PM

Since May 1, Plouffe is hitting .218/.272/.379. That doesn't instill much confidence that he's going to have a big second half of the season...


Somehow Plouffe has had a monster first half, he's still in the majors. I just don't get it! But with this team's FO, he'll probably retire as a Twinkee.

#65 spycake

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 02:42 PM

It's also encouraging that Plouffe has improved his defense every year as well, according to the advanced metrics he is now a little above average. Couple that with a guy who can give you a 95-105 OPS+ and that gives you some value.


No doubt. That's why he has value -- right now he appears to be a fairly cheap ~100 OPS+ average defense everyday third baseman.

My point in this discussion is, for 2015-2016+, if you take out the "everyday third basemen" part of that description, he takes a decent value hit.

His value is NOT based on the idea that he's particularly likely to suddenly over-perform his career averages for an extended period beginning at age 28.

#66 spycake

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 02:49 PM

Also, to those that point to Dozier's age-26 improvement as a good sign that Plouffe can do something similar, let me suggest that Plouffe already has, at age-25 in 2011 (offensively, as well as 2012-2013 defensively).

And the result of that was transforming him from a .720 OPS AAA (AAAA?) hitter and marginal MLBer, into a .720 OPS MLB regular. I am enjoying what he is right now and into the 2015 season, and not waiting for him to get even better or worrying about trying to fit him onto the 2016 team.

#67 gil4

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 03:15 PM

I'm not too sure how to view Plouffe in the way you envision his usefulness in the future.

Sure, it would be great if he was a super utility guy, and also as a corner outfielder, but I have a hard time envisioning these ideas coming to fruition.

1. Plouffe has finally settled in at one position, and has held his own. This has brought
stability to his career and he is settling in impressively.

2. Terry Ryan admitted 2+ years ago that Plouffe as an Outfielder was a disaster. Why do we keep pushing Plouffe as a Corner OFer? I know things change, but the optimism on this subject is downright ridiculous.

3. I do not think that Sano is a sure shot at 3B. After his TJ surgery, no one can know his overall outcome. The dude will hit HR's, but anything other than that is a guessing game.

4. I view Plouffe as third baseman. If he needs to converted to a different position to make room for upcoming prospects - you should then trade him.

5. This whole converting Plouffe to be an outfielder, roving utility player, is confusing to me. There are no signs of this being a possibility or any writing on the wall indicating as such.

Plouffe is a third baseman. Nothing more, nothing less.


I agree 100%. Plouffe didn't bounce around to various positions because he had great potential as a utility guy. He bounced around in an effort to find a position he didn't completely butcher.

An average 3B is a valuable thing on a winning team; they just don't help much in offsetting below-replacement guys. A team with 6 average guys and three stars in the lineup will probably have enough offense to contend. It's the Florimons of this world that kill you.

If Sano takes over, someone will want Plouffe. If he doesn't, I'd rather have Plouffe than whatever replacement-level (or worse) guy the Twins can dig up.

#68 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 05:00 PM

FWIW, in Klaw's midseason Top 50 Prospect review of Sano today, coupled with his #11 prospect ranking, he also still concludes that he plays 1B or RF in the majors.


Law has always believed that... No reason to change his opinion due to the fact that Sano hasn't logged an inning in the field since he last wrote up a prospect sheet.

#69 stringer bell

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 07:51 PM

Brian Dozier is less than a year younger and his career triple slash is: .241/.311/.400 (.714) in 1387 PAs and some, including myself, were saying he should go to the All-Star game. Granted, he plays second, not third, but I don't think we can unequivocally say that Plouffe has reached his peak. I think he will do well after the All-Star break and make a case for being a starter no matter what Sano does in the next 10-12 months. That is, moving and starting at another position if Sano forces himself into the majors (which I believe will happen).

There were complaints for my comparison of Plouffe and Dozier, and deservedly so. I had checked Dozier's stats for some reason and was surprised how close they were to Plouffe's. I acknowledge that they are different players. Their lifetime stats and their age are close, but other than that, they don't have that much in common. I still do believe that Plouffe can improve and that his bat might play at a corner outfield position.

#70 Shane Wahl

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 08:16 PM

I would trade Plouffe in a heartbeat now. Maybe a Deibinson Romero trial would make me feel better before doing so.

#71 curt1965

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 11:49 PM

Does everyone remember what happened when Plouffe went on the DL? It pushed Escobar to 3rd, which was a temporary fix, and Santana to everyday SS. That worked until Santana went on the DL. Then Nunez went to 3rd, and Escobar went back to SS.
The point is: what combination of the above to you want (remember Santana hurt) for your everyday lineup in 2014? The Twins FO has already told us they have no plans for Romero in the future by not calling him up when Plouffe went on the DL. I realize he is not on the 40 man, but that could have happened by DFAing Floriman.
I am not necessarily a Plouffe guy after this year, but I believe he is an important cog for this year's team.

#72 tobi0040

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 07:15 AM

I would trade Plouffe in a heartbeat now. Maybe a Deibinson Romero trial would make me feel better before doing so.


I don't understand why so many want to trade Plouffe.

Here seems to be general consensus:

-His OPS+ is about 100, or average

-His defense is about average

-This is a thin position around the league, look no further than the Twins 3B from 2006 to 2012.

-The guy makes no money and is under control

-Replacements right now are Escobar (career .646 OPS) and Nunez (.698 OPS, dumped by the Yankees, poor glove)

-There is no consensus that Sano will stick at 3B and he is not likely to be here until June 2015.

-Nobody really expects a ton in return

On top of that, we could rattle off a huge list of Twins that took awhile to really click, even though I would argue "not clicking Plouffe is still an average 3B". Hunter, Dozier, Carlos Gomez, etc. So what is the motivation here?

#73 Boom Boom

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 07:46 AM

We've been waiting for Sano to come up and force the Twins' hand on this, but...

I expect Plouffe to be signed to a new contract and Sano moved to left field.

#74 stringer bell

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 07:56 AM

I can't say I've seen enough of Sano at third to be an expert. I have seen him in person and he is large, but not Big Papi or Little Papi (Vargas) large. Larry Parrish was a good third baseman and a large man. Sano is reputed to have the hands, reactions, and arm to play third. Nothing is certain in baseball, but I'm betting he breaks in to MLB next year as a third baseman.

#75 tobi0040

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 08:02 AM

I can't say I've seen enough of Sano at third to be an expert. I have seen him in person and he is large, but not Big Papi or Little Papi (Vargas) large. Larry Parrish was a good third baseman and a large man. Sano is reputed to have the hands, reactions, and arm to play third. Nothing is certain in baseball, but I'm betting he breaks in to MLB next year as a third baseman.


I expect Sano to be given every opportunity to show he can stick at 3B. But given the errors already and the fact that he will likely get bigger as he ages, it isn't a lock that he sticks. Just one of the many risks of moving Plouffe right now, for a non top 100 prospect that is not likely to make the big leagues and be average (which Plouffe is now).

#76 ashburyjohn

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 10:30 AM

Maybe a Deibinson Romero trial would make me feel better before doing so.


Or, probably (IMO), worse. :)