Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Astros mess

  • Please log in to reply
147 replies to this topic

#41 Dman

Dman

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 980 posts

Posted 16 July 2014 - 12:59 PM

Fangraphs has a great article on this, pointing out that Houston knows this is going to potentially hurt them, and they likely would not be doing it for a bad reason......it is an interesting article that goes beyond the knee jerk.


That was a pretty balanced article. I guess it really comes down to how you view the medical reports. If the Astro's truly have a legitimate concern that if injured he may never pitch again, or pitch effectively again, then I guess you shake Aiken loose and try again next year. It seems like an awful lot for them to give up this year but I will assume they know best. If this is simply about a price point then I think this damages the Astro's significantly.

If there is one thing they should change it is medical exams before the draft.

#42 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,558 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 16 July 2014 - 01:09 PM

I'm honestly not sure this applies here. If Aiken doesn't sign by the deadline, he is no longer tied to a ML team in any way.
Even if Japan isn't an option, I would advise him to just hook up with an independent team. That way he can get his work in and still be available for next year's draft. I'm sure the Saints could make room for him.


As mentioned this situation happens all the time in the draft that a hs draftee doesn't sign. Even undrafted hs players aren't true free agents, they are still subject to the draft caps.

Harrington was a college guy so not a truly comparable situation tough I admittedly am not sure. The key is that he isn't a true free agent. He can only enter mlb through the draft.
Papers...business papers.

#43 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Billy G.O.A.T

  • Twins Mods
  • 10,848 posts

Posted 16 July 2014 - 01:12 PM

If there is one thing they should change it is medical exams before the draft.


That would be nice, but who pays for those? Is Aiken supposed to shell out a couple grand just so he can give teams ammunition to use against him when it comes time to negotiate the contract?

Even if the MLB tried to get them and was willing to pay for 2,000 medical reports, no one is going to be able to force these kids to take an exam and reveal the results.

#44 twinsfan34

twinsfan34

    Paul DeVos

  • Members
  • 748 posts

Posted 16 July 2014 - 01:21 PM

He was the first overall pick in the draft. It's unlikely that he sits in the minors until he's 23-24 unless something goes terribly wrong. Coming out of college, he'd be in his age 21 season before he played an inning of pro ball. He'd only get a partial season in his draft year and suddenly he's looking at his age 23 season with only 1 1/3 MiLB seasons under his belt.

It's likely that he'd push back his overall service time at least one season, maybe two, by going back to college. Given that the average MLB free agent makes around $6-7m a season, one year of FA is worth a lot more than the $3m in question today.


I see your reasoning...curious why there's been so many guys who are JRs in college or HS that go back to college or in the case of the HS, go to college.

Dustin DeMuth, Twins pick a year ago obviously got hammered. Phil Beckford to Mark Appel, etc. all end up much worse.

So I get the logic, in fact I've gone about my employment this way. If I make $72K a year and take off 3 months to get another job...even if I now would make $96K a year ($24K raise) it would still take me 9 months to make up that lost money, even though I would not be making $24K per year MORE than I made before.

#45 Dman

Dman

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 980 posts

Posted 16 July 2014 - 01:37 PM

That would be nice, but who pays for those? Is Aiken supposed to shell out a couple grand just so he can give teams ammunition to use against him when it comes time to negotiate the contract?

Even if the MLB tried to get them and was willing to pay for 2,000 medical reports, no one is going to be able to force these kids to take an exam and reveal the results.


MLB would need to pick up the bill I would guess. I think they do this already in football. No one gets drafted there without looking at medical reports.

#46 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,558 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 16 July 2014 - 02:17 PM

Not sure if this has been covered, but perhaps the most relevant detail is the agreement with Nix, the 5th rounder for $1.5 mil. That was the money that was going to be saved from for the initial underslot agreement with Aiken. If Aiken doesn't sign the Astros would lose the #1 pick slot and if the agreement with Nix is honored then Houston would potentially lose both #1 picks next year (their own and the comp pick for not signing Aiken).

The juicy detail is that Nix and Aiken have the same agent, so perhaps Aiken has a little bit more leverage than we think.
Papers...business papers.

#47 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 11,262 posts
  • LocationThe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 16 July 2014 - 02:23 PM

I see your reasoning...curious why there's been so many guys who are JRs in college or HS that go back to college or in the case of the HS, go to college.

Dustin DeMuth, Twins pick a year ago obviously got hammered. Phil Beckford to Mark Appel, etc. all end up much worse.

So I get the logic, in fact I've gone about my employment this way. If I make $72K a year and take off 3 months to get another job...even if I now would make $96K a year ($24K raise) it would still take me 9 months to make up that lost money, even though I would not be making $24K per year MORE than I made before.


I thought I read somewhere that DeMuth had lied to the Twins about something... not sure on the details.

#48 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,558 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 18 July 2014 - 03:19 PM

Astros sign none of the three. Wow.
Papers...business papers.

#49 Dman

Dman

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 980 posts

Posted 18 July 2014 - 03:29 PM

Astros sign none of the three. Wow.



Yeah this becomes a brutal draft for them. Next year should be nice but wow. Why not offer 5.5 or 6 and sign the other two guys? They don't know that his arm will fall off. Seems worth the risk to me. They must really believe the arm will go bad and will not be able to be fixed. Will be interesting to see the spin on this one.

#50 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,283 posts

Posted 18 July 2014 - 03:40 PM

This is no way to rebuild.

I have to believe they had legitimate concerns about the ligament. It just isn't enough money in the long run.

j

#51 drjim

drjim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 8,558 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul

Posted 18 July 2014 - 03:48 PM

I agree, definitely have legitimate concerns about the ligament.

Will be interesting to see what Aiken does. If he goes to JC, could re-enter the draft as early as next year.

Reports are that the Astros eventually offered $5 mil, which is a lot to pass up. Maybe he was so angry with them pulling the $6.5 that he said screw it, I'll take my chances.
Papers...business papers.

#52 JB_Iowa

JB_Iowa

    Let's Keep Winning!

  • Members
  • 5,986 posts
  • LocationNorthwest Iowa

Posted 18 July 2014 - 03:56 PM

It is one time money -- that's what just kills me on this. We're not talking about $6+ million each year. We're talking a one-time bonus.

And now losing Nix and Marshall as well. It's mind-boggling.

One interesting tweet:





Was the well just so poisoned that there was no way to have any trust? It is really pretty crazy (from both sides).

#53 twinsfan34

twinsfan34

    Paul DeVos

  • Members
  • 748 posts

Posted 18 July 2014 - 04:23 PM

So...they lost Mac Marshall as well (21st pick), if I'm understanding this correctly...

Though hard to say 'lost' as often times HS and JR's taken after the top 10 rounds go back to school to improve their draft position/bonus compensation.

So really they're just getting the #2 pick overall next year.

Kinda stinks for Nix, as they didn't have to honor a contract he agreed to - but must not have been able to sign it. IF he had, it appears they'd lose the next 2 first round picks if he had...and would have been 3, if Aiken had not signed.
http://mlb.mlb.com/n...6&vkey=news_mlb

#54 ashburyjohn

ashburyjohn

    Haighters gonna Haight

  • Twins Mods
  • 15,752 posts
  • LocationNatick, MA

Posted 18 July 2014 - 04:27 PM

Astros sign none of the three. Wow.


In fairness the three events are not unrelated. When they couldn't sign Aiken, signing either of the other two would have been from a smaller total pool and would have cost them some drafting rights for next year.

"We tried to engage Casey Close three times today … there was no interest”


So, Close, but no cigar.

#55 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 13,244 posts

Posted 18 July 2014 - 04:33 PM

This whole thing represents some serious incompetence - at least in these negotiations. Wow.

#56 JB_Iowa

JB_Iowa

    Let's Keep Winning!

  • Members
  • 5,986 posts
  • LocationNorthwest Iowa

Posted 18 July 2014 - 04:38 PM

Apparently the $5 million offer didn't get made until 5 minutes before deadline.

#57 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 11,262 posts
  • LocationThe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 18 July 2014 - 04:49 PM

dumb dumb dumb... Astros screwed this up royally. My predictions. They messed up Aiken's NCAA eligibility, so he goes to JuCo, an Indy league, or just sits out and re-enters the draft next June. In the mean time, Nix and Aiken file a grievance with the MLBPA. I think Nix will win for sure, given that he had an offer on the table that Houston reneged on. I suspect Aiken may win as well, but he doesn't have nearly the ground in the CBA. This will put Houston over their pool at which point they will lose their true first round pick. Houston's front office will likely be unemployed this winter... At least they should be. I cannot imagine any agent being too willing to negotiate with them given the lack of good faith they've shown.

This is bad for baseball. I'm rather surprised Selig didn't step in here.

edit: cannot spell

Edited by diehardtwinsfan, 19 July 2014 - 11:51 AM.


#58 maxisagod

maxisagod

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 477 posts
  • LocationThe Moon

Posted 18 July 2014 - 05:11 PM

... I'm rather surprised Selig didn't step in here.


He might sometime now, but he and everyone else had to just assume both sides were playing hardball with each other. The last 5 million offer didn't come until 5 minutes before the deadline, not a lot of time to step in and save the day.

#59 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 11,262 posts
  • LocationThe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 18 July 2014 - 05:24 PM

Not only that, but 5 minutes before is nothing more than hardball. The Astros could have sent that in a few hours before hand and given Brady a chance to counter.... I think though, Brady wanted 6.5. I'd bet you this though, the Stros won't be playing hardball anymore after that. They lost big time in that they lost 3 good arms. They get a comp pick for Aiken, but from what I understand, they won't have Aiken like talent at 2 next year, and I think Aiken has the right to say 'no thanks' to the Astros now.

#60 Thrylos

Thrylos

    They Finally fired ’em. Play Ball!

  • Members
  • 8,786 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 18 July 2014 - 05:28 PM

dumb dumb dumb... Astros screwed this up royally. My predictions. They messed up Aiken's NCAA eligibility, so he goes to JuCo, an Indy league, or just sits out and re-enters the draft next June. In the mean time, Nix and Aiken file a grievance with the MLBPA. I think Nix will win for sure, given that he had an offer on the table that Houston renigged on. I suspect Aiken may win as well, but he doesn't have nearly the ground in the CBA. This will put Houston over their pool at which point they will lose their true first round pick. Houston's front office will likely be unemployed this winter... At least they should be. I cannot imagine any agent being too willing to negotiate with them given the lack of good faith they've shown.

This is bad for baseball. I'm rather surprised Selig didn't step in here.


Nix and Aiken are not part of the MLBPA, so they cannot file a grievance. I don't like the way the Astros are run, and this might bite them in many respects, but they did everything by the name of the rules here. If they made an oral offer to Nix through his agent it does not matter unless there were signatures on paper. And given that they both have the same agent, how can we be certain that all of that was not driven by the agent a bit too...

The Orioles backed up on Balfour last off-season after the medicals. Similar situation (and Balfour is part of the MLBPA.) No signatures, no contract. If there are signatures, there is no way they can renege that contract. That's how it goes. Might suck for the Astros, but they made a $5M dollar to an 18 year old kid with what they thought was arm issues and he did not take it. Told the agent that they will go over slot with Nix if Aiken takes it. That's what seems to have happened. I'd really blame the agent as much as the Astros here.

As far as NCAA eligibility goes, if a college football player even thinks about hiring an agent, he loses it. Same should be with baseball. That's on NCAA (and the kids). Not the Astros, not the MLB.
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98