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OF situation thus far, and looking ahead.

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#1 DocBauer

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 09:21 PM

OK, here we go.

What we know:

Arcia is immensely talented, and no doubt part of our future. He's very, very young. SO's may always be troublesome, no big surprise for a power hitter. And there's no question his early season injury set him back in his development this season. Seemingly a season long curse of many of the Twins top young hitters. His defense is below average at times, though his range isn't bad, and then he makes a great couple of plays and really shows off his arm on a big play or two. I don't think anyone doubts him to be a fixture moving forward, and this defense and arm, over time, should mark him as at least an average OF defensively. With time, work, and a little brighter lightbulb, the potential is there to be above average. Remember how young he is? Don't forget.

Willingham looked dead in ST. Then, the first few games of the season, he hit before getting injured. Upon his return, he provided a spark, followed by a dive. And yet, he's still provided some real value. And he poses some veteran power and RBI potential for a contending team the second half of the year. The simple reality is he doesn't fit in the Twins long term prospectus, and will be moved soon providing someone sees real value, and offers something above a bag of balls.

Parmelee has been a huge surprise! After being essentially dumped by the Twins after ST, where he was made available to all teams, he went to Rochester and tore things up. He looked good when brought up, then sunked, then rebounded to the point where he's actually looking like a real, viable ML hitter. His defense is actually a bit underrated, partially from being bounced a bit, but offers a decent OF/1B defensive option who can...and I want to initially smack my typing fingers on the table...even provide an emergency option in CF. If the resurgence Parmelee is showing is real, he would join the likes of Cuddyer and Plouffe as top prospects to take time to find themselves.

Colabello was a revelation in April, playing a lot of mediocre OF, but leading the team in production. The great story lost his gift, went down the minors to get his stroke again, before coming back up to offer some production again in a limited time frame. If he can keep things up, he offers a decent RH bench bat who can fill in at 1B and occasionally in the OF.

The biggest mystery is CF. Forgetting poor decisions by the FO to address the situation properly the past two off seasons, we are sitting with Fuld, an OK option who has probably been producing above his career norm, Hicks who is a complete mystery at this point, and Santana who has been a huge surprise. Is he a true CF despite a few appearances in the minors? Absolutely not. But has he been better than expected and actually shown improvement? Yes.

Where we are:

Willingham in LF, being as productive as possible until gone.
Arcia in RF, playing every day, getting his opportunities, and growing.
Parmelee moving around and hopefully continuing his sudden development.
Santana and Fuld patrolling CF with Santana also seeing time at SS.

Where we will be:

Willingham will be gone.
Arcia is a lock, and should be.
CF??? Santana will continue to see time in CF. He's not the long term solution there to be sure, but could be an important fill-in, with a future in LF, or back at SS full time, with the ability to play CF as a backup, or even as a muti-positional utility player if someone else stakes a better claim to SS.

Buxton has been slowed, though the sky is still the limit. Hicks still has tremendous talent, as does Rosario, also slowed this season, both at AA at this time. Walker has a potentially excellent future, but is in high A.

So where does this leave us in the short term for the balance of this season and 2015?

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#2 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 06:44 AM

I'm guessing they will pick someone up for a 1 year contract to man CF in 2015 to split time with Fuld. People won't like it too much, because for a 1 year contract, it's going to be a reclamation project or a pretty mediocre player, but the 3 CFs in the high minors won't be ready by spring of 2015.

#3 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 07:24 AM

Sam Fuld has been a pleasant surprise. BA .285...10 SB...few SO's...some speed in CF. He's having a typical Span year, when Span batted lead-off for the Twins. What about moving him to batting second in the lineup...or even lead-off? He has prototypical lead-off numbers at this point in the season.

#4 DJL44

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 08:16 AM

Denard Span would be a pretty nice stopgap if he doesn't have his option picked up by Washington.

#5 Lakeside

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 08:37 AM

Sam Fuld has been a pleasant surprise. BA .285...10 SB...few SO's...some speed in CF. He's having a typical Span year, when Span batted lead-off for the Twins. What about moving him to batting second in the lineup...or even lead-off? He has prototypical lead-off numbers at this point in the season.


Don't get me wrong because I like Fuld, but last I looked he was hitting .269. He does play a good CF and gives you speed at the bottom of the order. I'm suggesting he is the CF until Buxton arrives.

Santana--if we have Buxton, is Santana not a shortstop and should we just start playing him there.

Arcia--like the raw power, like the enthusiasm, can he play consistently at the MLB level is the question that has to be asked. I say give him some time because he has succeeded at every other level.

Plouffe--if Sano is the 3B of the future. . . do we move him (Flouffe) to OF. Plouffe has talent but drives me crazy with his "streaky" play.

Hicks--talented. . need to be careful we don't "Gomez" him and give up on him just as he matures and understands what has to be done. I think Hicks has a MLB future.

Rosario--generally has hit everywhere. . .having some troubles this year. . but his past indicates he will hit in MLB

Parmelee--showing promise. . . but a little like Plouffe in that he is streaky. . . when's the last time he hit a HR?

Colabello--Is he a MLB hitter. . we should know at the end of this season. . plus he will be 31. Don't thik he will be with us next year.

Willingham--taking for granted that he will be moved this July

Morales-see Willingham

Nunez--can play outfield okay and all infield positions, plus he can hit, which IMO makes him a great player to carry on the roster.

Here's my take for the "end" of the 2015 Season. . .
1B-Mauer
2B-Dozier
SS-Santana
3B-Sano (if not then Escobar/Nunez)
LF-Plouffe/Rosario/Hicks
CF-Buxton/Fuld
RF-Arcia/Parmelee/Hicks
C-Pinto
DH-Vargas

*This does not address any trades, which may be coming. . We have some good infield prospects in the low minors that could bring a MLB hitter to this fold.

*This line-up is truly HR power hitting challenged especially if Sano is not ready. We will save about $28 million annually if Willingham, Correia, Suzuki, Burton, Morales are gone. I'm pretty bullish that our SP will be improving with Meyer and Mays. So, my question is, How do we spend that $28M that will help us scoring more runs?

#6 Buck Nasty

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 08:37 AM

Denard Span would be a pretty nice stopgap if he doesn't have his option picked up by Washington.


I agree with this. With Buxton losing a year of development and Hicks taking a step back, we probably have a full year and maybe two to cover before Buxton takes over for good. If Buxton/Hicks force their way into the line up earlier - great! Span becomes a very good 4th OF or could even hold a corner spot if he's playing well.

#7 gmarais66

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 08:38 AM

Denard Span would be a pretty nice stopgap if he doesn't have his option picked up by Washington.


Span's numbers, so far this season: .269/.319/.385... Not exactly an upgrade over Santana/Fuld...

#8 Brandon

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 09:14 AM

I think they should off a 1 year deal to Ichiro this offseason. If nothing else, lets kick it old school with Hunter.

In all seriousness I think we have enough stop gap solutions. Santana and Fuld can handle it for a year or 2 and Hicks will likely get another chance. Buxton is on the way. If we really want Santana at SS then we get a stop gap like the 2 mentioned above.

#9 nicksaviking

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 10:06 AM

I'm sure Span will be back next year, but is there going to be room for any youngsters with Hunter and Cuddyer manning the other corner spots?

#10 spycake

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 11:00 AM

Span's numbers, so far this season: .269/.319/.385... Not exactly an upgrade over Santana/Fuld...


Over Fuld, yes Span is an upgrade. Span has done that (or better) consistently over 7 seasons, near 4000 PA. Fuld's got 150 PA at his current level. Plus, Span is 2 years younger than Fuld.

Santana might be able to stabilize at a similar offensive level (95 OPS+), but he has limited experience in CF and might be needed more at SS very soon.

All three could be useful parts of next year's roster.

#11 Lakeside

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 11:03 AM

I'm sure Span will be back next year, but is there going to be room for any youngsters with Hunter and Cuddyer manning the other corner spots?


How about Allan Craig (Cardinals) in RF. Cardinals are looking to move him with Tavares coming up. . . .Can Dozier continue to hit HR's at his current pace. If he does, a long0term contract with $$$$ may be an issue for the Twins.

We have middle infielders Santana, Polanco, Michael, and Rosario in the minors to cover 2B. . How about a trade of Dozier for Craig and a pitching prospect?

Dozier's value may never be higher and Craig's lower (off year . . looking for room for Tavares).

#12 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 11:09 AM

Can Dozier continue to hit HR's at his current pace.


As unlikely as it seemed even three months ago, I think the answer to that has to be "yes".

Over the past 365 days, Dozier has 28 home runs. He's been a masher for roughly 13-14 months now. I think it's safe to say that this is who Brian Dozier is now. He's a low average, high discipline masher at a premium position.

Unless the offer is "holy crap, yeah, I'll take the #4 prospect in baseball" good, there is no reason to trade Brian Dozier, particularly for a guy owed a bunch of money over the next handful of years (Allen Craig).

I don't understand why people are in a rush to get rid of Brian Dozier. He's a 2.5-4 WAR player right now. That's a really valuable piece and the return better be amazing if he's moved and it needs to be a lot better than Craig, a defensively-challenged OF/1B type who is owed $25m in the next three years. Trading Dozier seems a lot like shuffling deck chairs. You're closing one hole so you can open another. It doesn't actually improve the team in any capacity.

#13 twinsnorth49

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 11:14 AM

I think they should off a 1 year deal to Ichiro this offseason. If nothing else, lets kick it old school with Hunter.

In all seriousness I think we have enough stop gap solutions. Santana and Fuld can handle it for a year or 2 and Hicks will likely get another chance. Buxton is on the way. If we really want Santana at SS then we get a stop gap like the 2 mentioned above.


Actually I think this is the most likely scenario if Santana continues to play well through this season. Fuld and Santana next spring, possibly Hicks by June with Santana moving to SS and Escobar to a full time utility role and Fuld as 4th outfielder.

It gets cloudy when Buxton and Sano arrive, pushing Hicks and Plouffe into bench roles presumably.

#14 jokin

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 11:16 AM

Don't get me wrong because I like Fuld, but last I looked he was hitting .269. He does play a good CF and gives you speed at the bottom of the order. I'm suggesting he is the CF until Buxton arrives.


Tarheel was correct....Fuld is batting .285 while appearing as a MN Twin. I also like Fuld, but not as a starter, but a nice 4th OF. It would be helpful to see if Rosario might be ready next year with a August call-up if he resumes raking in AA this month. But I think they can get by with Santana and Fuld in CF until Buxton arrives, with Santana continuing to split duty at both SS and CF. In the meantime, the Twins should be taking advantage of their waiver wire position and make claims on DFAs who project as another Bonifcaio, to build up some OF depth.

Edited by jokin, 15 July 2014 - 11:19 AM.


#15 jokin

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 11:22 AM

Actually I think this is the most likely scenario if Santana continues to play well through this season. Fuld and Santana next spring, possibly Hicks by June with Santana moving to SS and Escobar to a full time utility role and Fuld as 4th outfielder.

It gets cloudy when Buxton and Sano arrive, pushing Hicks and Plouffe into bench roles presumably.


IMO, with the maturity of Plouffe's bat this year, as well as in the field (he actually has a positive dWAR ranking, both this year and last), he's making a case for becoming the Super Util guy that some of us have envisioned- perhaps playing regularly at the IF and OF corners

#16 mike wants wins

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 11:58 AM

If only there was a player on the roster that could play 3B sometimes this year, so Plouffe could work the OF occassionally......
Lighten up Francis....

#17 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 12:04 PM

If only there was a player on the roster that could play 3B sometimes this year, so Plouffe could work the OF occassionally......


Escobar could fill that role once Santana comes back from rehab.

#18 spycake

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 12:10 PM

IMO, with the maturity of Plouffe's bat this year, as well as in the field (he actually has a positive dWAR ranking, both this year and last), he's making a case for becoming the Super Util guy that some of us have envisioned- perhaps playing regularly at the IF and OF corners


Have you checked Plouffe's numbers lately? His AVG, SLG, and K rate all seem perfectly consistent with years past. His OBP is about .010 higher than last year, but mostly thanks to April (isolated discipline .058 since May 1st, was .062 from 2011-2013).

And he's starting to get more expensive, $2.35 mil this year as a Super-2 player. Given his starting history, he's probably on his way to $3-4 mil arbitration awards the next few years, regardless of his future role. Which we can obviously afford, but it doesn't look like that's a particularly great value for what would essentially be a 90-100 OPS+ corner player. (If he could backup middle IF again, it could be a different story!)

If his defense really is average or better at third, he might have more value in trade if someone else sees him as a viable 3B patch.

#19 beckmt

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 12:13 PM

Maybe this is not the spot for this discussion, but I view Dozier as a Brandon Phillips type, with more walks and maybe a little less defense. Is this good, yes, but in 3-4 years we will owe him a pile of money to keep him, with Polanco, if he makes it, as a superior defensive player and less power and more average. What does this leave, get a big package for Dozier now, as the package may go down over the next two years. We have 2-4 prospects, (Polanco, Rosario, Gordon, Micheal) to possibly fill the 2B spot. Take the chance now.

#20 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 12:40 PM

What does this leave, get a big package for Dozier now, as the package may go down over the next two years. We have 2-4 prospects, (Polanco, Rosario, Gordon, Micheal) to possibly fill the 2B spot. Take the chance now.


Barring injury or extreme production drop-off, Dozier's value will still be very high in two years and at that point, this theoretical replacement will be closer to the big leagues and more of a viable option to actually replace Dozier and be productive.

Teams can't trade off solid, productive players due to irrational fear of collapse... if they operated in that fashion, they'd trade every. single. player. on their roster the moment they got good at hitting or throwing baseballs.

Teams can't win if they continually trade off their good players without viable replacements on hand. It's that simple.

#21 jokin

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 12:43 PM

Have you checked Plouffe's numbers lately? His AVG, SLG, and K rate all seem perfectly consistent with years past. His OBP is about .010 higher than last year, but mostly thanks to April (isolated discipline .058 since May 1st, was .062 from 2011-2013).

And he's starting to get more expensive, $2.35 mil this year as a Super-2 player. Given his starting history, he's probably on his way to $3-4 mil arbitration awards the next few years, regardless of his future role. Which we can obviously afford, but it doesn't look like that's a particularly great value for what would essentially be a 90-100 OPS+ corner player. (If he could backup middle IF again, it could be a different story!)

If his defense really is average or better at third, he might have more value in trade if someone else sees him as a viable 3B patch.


Actually, year over year, from 2013 to 2014, Plouffe is better in every batting stat, save BA (.254 vs .245). He's definitely a streaky hitter, but his OPS+ is over 100 right now, and appears more sustainable than ever before. He is only 2 XBHs behind his entire total from last year, and he's currently just 9 XBHs behind his 2012 total.

He's dramatically improved his pitch selectivity, lowering his O-swing rate from some of the league's worst to some of the league's best- Joe Mauer and Denard Span, two of the most selective hitters in Twins history, each have an O-swing rate of 23.9%, Plouffe's rate is 24%.

Further, check how he has morphed into a spray-gap-doubles hitter:

Posted Image

Vs. his spray chart over a similar time frame in 2013:

Posted Image

Edited by jokin, 15 July 2014 - 12:53 PM.


#22 spycake

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 12:54 PM

Maybe this is not the spot for this discussion, but I view Dozier as a Brandon Phillips type, with more walks and maybe a little less defense.


Phillips is actually an interesting comp for Dozier. Struggled big time in his MLB debut (albeit at age 22), busted out with 30 HR (and 32 SB) at age 26, bought out his arb years plus a FA year for 4/27, stabilized around a 105 OPS+ during that time with plus defense.

The guy I keep thinking of is Dan Uggla, who had an under-the-radar late debut like Dozier (although a better minor league history of power hitting). Uggla was less of a 2B but more of a traditional hitter (116 OPS+ hitter through his pre-FA years, peaking around 130).

I don't know if either guy ever drew much high-impact trade interest -- Uggla played 5 seasons with the trade-happy Marlins, and was ultimately dealt for a middle reliever and Omar Infante. Suggests we're better off rolling the dice on Dozer for the next 4-5 years, taking the good performance if he can keep it up, not costing much money if he doesn't, and possibly trading him only once we have an actual surplus at the position (i.e. closer than rookie league and A-ball).

#23 spycake

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 01:28 PM

Actually, year over year, from 2013 to 2014, Plouffe is better in every batting stat, save BA (.254 vs .245). He's definitely a streaky hitter, but his OPS+ is over 100 right now, and appears more sustainable than ever before. He is only 2 XBHs behind his entire total from last year, and he's currently just 9 XBHs behind his 2012 total.


2013 was actually his worst year in terms of power and discipline, so being marginally better than that in 2014 is welcomed but not terribly meaningful. And his "above 100" OPS is 101. I believe it was 99 before Sunday's game. His career mark is 96, and he's been between 91-106 every year. For a streaky hitter, he's actually been quite consistent in his year-end results.

His offensive levels look perfectly sustainable for the next couple years -- but that ~100 wRC+ level ranks about 15th among qualified MLB 3B, maybe 20-25th among regular (300+ PA) third basemen. Does that modest offensive level have any value from a right-handed, $4 million, 29-30 year old corner OF?

#24 Lakeside

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 01:46 PM

Barring injury or extreme production drop-off, Dozier's value will still be very high in two years and at that point, this theoretical replacement will be closer to the big leagues and more of a viable option to actually replace Dozier and be productive.

Teams can't trade off solid, productive players due to irrational fear of collapse... if they operated in that fashion, they'd trade every. single. player. on their roster the moment they got good at hitting or throwing baseballs.

Teams can't win if they continually trade off their good players without viable replacements on hand. It's that simple.


There is no right answer on this question but there are several sides. I agree with you, but my points are these:

1) Dozier has about 5 years of team control left. . he has one year of pre-arbitration left. To many teams (exclude the Dogers, Yankees, Red Sox, etc) those are important features, which as time goes on have lower value to the acquiring team.

2) IMO the Twins have more than one future 2B (excess inventory). So 2B is a position we can trade someone (for a need)and still be solid.

3) Since 2012 when he went to AAA, Dozier has never hit well - .241 MLB average and .311OBP as compared to AA and lower .298BA and .370 OBP. If he stops hitting HR's what is his value as a .241 hitting 2B as compared to his "potential" value now.

4) That's the "rub" in a popular player trade. . . do you bet on his "upside" or his "downside".

5) If Dozier continues as is. . I like him, pencil him into the #5 hole as a 30HR guy and .250 hitter. If he doesn't continue as is, the question is "could we have gotten something better for him when he was a "potential" forever 30HR guy?

6) Dozier reminds me of Davey Johnson (Orioles/Braves) who hit 136 homers in a 13 year career (10 HR/year) but had one season in which he hit 43.

Again, no right or wrong answers here, but from my point of view with Rosario, Polanco, etc. (your term- vialble replacements) I would prefer to get a consensus 20HR - .270 hitter corner outfileder for Dozier at this time. This is why GM's in baseball get paid a lot/don't always last long. . . tough decisions.

#25 jokin

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 01:49 PM

2013 was actually his worst year in terms of power and discipline, so being marginally better than that in 2014 is welcomed but not terribly meaningful. And his "above 100" OPS is 101. I believe it was 99 before Sunday's game. His career mark is 96, and he's been between 91-106 every year. For a streaky hitter, he's actually been quite consistent in his year-end results.

His offensive levels look perfectly sustainable for the next couple years -- but that ~100 wRC+ level ranks about 15th among qualified MLB 3B, maybe 20-25th among regular (300+ PA) third basemen. Does that modest offensive level have any value from a right-handed, $4 million, 29-30 year old corner OF?


Comparing his most recent two years is extremely valuable in judging his potential career path, and, IMO, his year over year improvement could fairly be regarded as better than marginal- I've presented evidence, as such. And what's wrong with an OPS+ of 101? He's going to have career highs in BBs, XBHs and OBP in 2014.

And you haven't responded to the evidence of the clear changes he's made in his approach, and results, at the plate, that suggest better things going forward. His oWAR for this season sits at 1.6, last year all season it was 1.7, and in 2012, 2.0, barring injury, it seems he will easily eclipse those previous totals, with a real chance at having close to a 3.0 oWAR season.

And I haven't recommended that he be permanently ensconced in a corner OF spot. My suggestion for Plouffe is as a Super-Util corner IF-OF guy. And the (estimated) $4M cost would be extremely modest, he's under team control through 2017 and can be a cheap veteran presence as the prospects make their way to the league over the next 3 years.

Edited by jokin, 15 July 2014 - 02:33 PM.


#26 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 02:05 PM

4) That's the "rub" in a popular player trade. . . do you bet on his "upside" or his "downside".


Overall good post. I'm only going to tackle this one comment.

I feel like I've repeated this a thousand times but if you see downside in a player, so do 29 other GMs in the league.

The fact is that if Dozier continues to hit in 2015, his value will be higher than it is today. He'll still have three years of control and a track record of 2 1/2 seasons of quality play. That will put to rest any unease with potential collapse. He'll still only be 28 and he'll have the rest of his prime seasons under control.

And in a year, Polanco, Rosario, and (fill in blank second baseman) will be closer to MLB.

If the Twins trade Dozier now, they're punting on not only 2014 but 2015 as well. Do any of us want to see that happen? Frankly, I'm tired of losing and I certainly don't want the Twins to act like they're the Kansas City Royals of the 2000s, constantly trading players to build for a future that never comes.

#27 mike wants wins

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 02:11 PM

I don't agree that they are punting on 2015 if they deal Dozier. That presumes several things:

1. They get no help in 2015
2. Rosario/Polanco/Someone+whatever they get<Dozier, nothing from a trade
3. They don't trade for another 2B if they want, or sign one
4. They have a real chance to be good in 2015

This team can't score runs, and is still last/near last in starter ERA. You seem pretty sure they will be competitive next year, what is that based on? Are you sure they won't get MLB help in teh deal, that might offset the loss of Dozier (at a different position, say)?
Lighten up Francis....

#28 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 02:16 PM

I don't agree that they are punting on 2015 if they deal Dozier. That presumes several things:

1. They get no help in 2015
2. Rosario/Polanco/Someone+whatever they get<Dozier, nothing from a trade
3. They don't trade for another 2B if they want, or sign one
4. They have a real chance to be good in 2015

This team can't score runs, and is still last/near last in starter ERA. You seem pretty sure they will be competitive next year, what is that based on? Are you sure they won't get MLB help in teh deal, that might offset the loss of Dozier (at a different position, say)?


I'm not sure they'll be competitive at all, I simply believe they should keep the window open to be competitive.

1. They won't get help that adequately replaces Dozier's bat. He's a pretty good player. 3+ WAR players don't grow on trees.
2. Help from the minor leagues will perform at a lower level than Brian Dozier. I don't predict many things with utmost certainty but you can pretty lock that in as fact. Brian Dozier is better than 25 other MLB 2B, much less some MiLB players with question marks.
3. What's the point of trading Brian Dozier if you're just going to trade or sign someone to replace him? And if the production was equal to Dozier, why wouldn't the other team skip trading for Dozier and just sign that theoretical 2B with Dozier-level production?
4. They have a decent shot at contending in 2015 if a few things break right. Hell, they looked like a fringe contender at times this year and it's unlikely the Twins get worse in 2015 without some unfortunate injury luck.

Teams rarely go from 72 wins to 90 wins and contention in a season. It's a process. This year, the goal is 75-ish wins. Next year, it should be around 80. If a few things break right, boom, you're a contender at 85 wins.

#29 mike wants wins

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 02:29 PM

But if that growth is built on veterans that won't be there in 2 years, they won't have the growth, because they'll be replaced by rookies. OTOH, if they get those guys up here next year, they won't be rookies in 2016.....in other words, if Suzuki and Morales won't be here in 2016/7, have they really grown? How will they plug those holes, if they have not grown them, or acquired younger players that will be here then?
Lighten up Francis....

#30 drjim

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 02:29 PM

I don't agree that they are punting on 2015 if they deal Dozier. That presumes several things:

1. They get no help in 2015
2. Rosario/Polanco/Someone+whatever they get<Dozier, nothing from a trade
3. They don't trade for another 2B if they want, or sign one
4. They have a real chance to be good in 2015

This team can't score runs, and is still last/near last in starter ERA. You seem pretty sure they will be competitive next year, what is that based on? Are you sure they won't get MLB help in teh deal, that might offset the loss of Dozier (at a different position, say)?


1. Polanco and Rosario aren't going to be ready by opening day 2015

2. The free agents are lacking

3. Why would a team trade a really good 2B and then try to turn around and trade for another one? This isn't fantasy baseball.

The other question would be what exactly do you want for Dozier? Pitching prospects? Good long term but doesn't do much for 2015. Trading Dozier is punting any slim chance of competing in 2015 that currently exists.
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