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Article: Breaking Better

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#1 Nick Nelson

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Posted 13 July 2014 - 11:34 PM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...Breaking-Better

#2 JB_Iowa

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 08:09 AM

[COLOR=#3E3E3E]While that's all good to see, hopefully the Twins won't let their resolve to stay afloat and finish better cloud their priorities as the trade deadline approaches.

[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#3E3E3E]Absolutely the key. I don't want to see them get caught in the "we're competitive" trap that they have somehow imagined for themselves several times in the last 3 years.

At this point, I don't care what the record is at the end of the season. I care about who I see playing in the 2nd half. I want to see Meyer and May, Pinto, Santana, maybe some Aaron Hicks if he can have a successful month or so at AAA, maybe a little Tonkin or Darnell and some Vargas in September.

I know they need to manage options and service time but let us see the hope for the future. That'll be worth much more to me than a few extra wins on the W-L record.[/COLOR]

#3 Steve Penz

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 08:09 AM

Nice write up. Selling should not stress anybody out. Suzuki’s OBP and Avg may be tough to replace and Morales’s run production but beyond that who (what contributions) could they get rid of that are not replaceable with younger players and/or stop-gaps who are in the system? If they get the right offers, take them and forge ahead. If they can end up with 75 wins with brighter lights for next spring then we are good.

#4 mike wants wins

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 08:16 AM

It is nice they have a better record. I hope the 2nd half sees more of the future being part of the process.

#5 TheLeviathan

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 08:36 AM

I have to commend them on these last six games. After the KC and NYY series, I was expecting an absolute disaster heading into the break.

#6 Dman

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 08:57 AM

[COLOR=#3E3E3E]While that's all good to see, hopefully the Twins won't let their resolve to stay afloat and finish better cloud their priorities as the trade deadline approaches.

[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#3E3E3E]Absolutely the key. I don't want to see them get caught in the "we're competitive" trap that they have somehow imagined for themselves several times in the last 3 years.

At this point, I don't care what the record is at the end of the season. I care about who I see playing in the 2nd half. I want to see Meyer and May, Pinto, Santana, maybe some Aaron Hicks if he can have a successful month or so at AAA, maybe a little Tonkin or Darnell and some Vargas in September.

I know they need to manage options and service time but let us see the hope for the future. That'll be worth much more to me than a few extra wins on the W-L record.[/COLOR]


I couldn't say it any better, so I won't even try.

#7 jorgenswest

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 08:57 AM

Real improvement will be any that is carried into next year.

There are some players that we can have more confidence as part of the solution than last year at the break.

Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson all improved their stock in the last year.

Trevor Plouffe and Chris Parmelee show signs that they are capable of being a role player on a good major league team.

Glen Perkins and Casey Fien continue to be solid in the bullpen.

Danny Santana has shown a glimpse of the player he might become in his small sample.

Trevor May looked like he might be a reliever last year and now there is hope of a mid rotation starter.

Kurt Suzuki has outperformed anyone's expectations and has increased his market value. This is exactly what you hope for when signing a veteran coming off a bad season. They have an opportunity to cash in on his performance and consider resigning him in the winter.

Let's hope we can add Alex Meyer, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia and Josmil Pinto to the list in a year.

On the other hand, Joe Mauer and Ricky Nolasco are critical to the teams success in 2015-2017. They need to approach their previous level of performance when they return this year.

#8 Physics Guy

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 09:58 AM

I want them to stay competitive, but players who have the ability to help for the next few years need to have priority for playing time.

The following players need to be shopped to see what they might get:
Willingham, Correia, Morales, Suzuki

I would not want to trade Suzuki unless they can get more than a marginal prospect. The first three on that list all have potential replacements ready to go.

I would like to see only 12 pitchers on the roster to allow a stronger bench with more options. This means one of Burton, Guerrier, Swarzak or Deduno are traded/released/DFA'd.

By August 1:

C - Suzuki
1B - Mauer
2B - Dozier
SS - Escobar
3B - Plouffe
LF - Arcia
CF - Santana
RF - Parmelee
Bench - Fuld, Fryer, Colabello, Nunez, Herrmann

I'd actually rather see Hicks in CF and Santana at SS, with Herrmann in AAA. I just don't see that happening. I would like to see Hicks in AAA soon if he keeps hitting (.354 BA in last 15 games).

SP - Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, Meyer, May
Bullpen - Perkins, Fien, Duensing, Guerrier/Burton, Thielbar, Deduno, Swarzak

#9 Circus Boy

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 10:08 AM

[COLOR=#3E3E3E]While that's all good to see, hopefully the Twins won't let their resolve to stay afloat and finish better cloud their priorities as the trade deadline approaches.

[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#3E3E3E]Absolutely the key. I don't want to see them get caught in the "we're competitive" trap that they have somehow imagined for themselves several times in the last 3 years.

At this point, I don't care what the record is at the end of the season. I care about who I see playing in the 2nd half. I want to see Meyer and May, Pinto, Santana, maybe some Aaron Hicks if he can have a successful month or so at AAA, maybe a little Tonkin or Darnell and some Vargas in September.

I know they need to manage options and service time but let us see the hope for the future. That'll be worth much more to me than a few extra wins on the W-L record.[/COLOR]


Great observations! New initials for JB: GM!

#10 JB_Iowa

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 10:08 AM

Great observations! New initials for JB: GM!


There would be no saving the Twins in that scenario. :)

#11 Winston Smith

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 10:20 AM

I would like JB's comment if I could.
No need to have guys not in the future plans hanging around taking up playing time of possible future players to add a few wins.

#12 Brandon

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 11:43 AM

I have a slightly contrarian view. I don't think the Twins should trade the veterans unless we have a replacement ready for them. If Pinto is not going to be the starting Catcher then we should keep Suzuki. I am not sure I want Parmelee starting over either Morales and Willingham. Hicks however is different but for now he would take over CF. Corriea does look like he might have someone ready to take his spot. It depends since Nolasco has been so bad and who the 4th starter is going to be between Pino or Deduno but May needs to be called up and if Pino staying the rotation then Corriea needs to be traded. if Pino goes back down then May can come up and we can keep Corriea. apparently Meyer is coming up next year and Berrios could be here next year as well.

I don't really see anyone ready to come up to replace the veterans we have. With out ready replacements and without a decent return, our best return on these players is to enjoy watching them strive for a winning season this year. it shows the younger players a winning, competitive atmosphere which is important in their development.

For now I am going with likely trade Corriea and maybe Willingham. But the return needs to be better than nothing. A C or preferably C+/B- prospect in both cases. Again I think its better to set the winning example for the next group coming up.

Edited by Brandon, 14 July 2014 - 11:50 AM.


#13 troyhobbs

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 11:44 AM

I don't see their record improving much compared to the past few years but at least now there are several guys close to being ready so I agree w/ everyone else that it's time to trim the fat and fully commit to the youth movement. There is a small flicker of light far off at the end of the tunnel.

#14 mike wants wins

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 11:52 AM

Pinto should be playing up here, imo. The stats say that Suzuki isn't very good at framing, and at some point, they need to trust the young guys to be here and get better here (like Dozier).
Lighten up Francis....

#15 Gaettifan

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 12:59 PM

I'm sorry, but I don't see the value in trading any of those veterans. The return is always the same. "The Twins agreed to trade X veteran for Billy Nochance today. Nochance is a right-handed reliever with a 5.45 ERA in 24 innings at AA Bumtown, VA. He works in the high 80s, sometimes touching 90. He has 11 Ks and 15 walks this season with a 1-3 record. He's 28 years-old." None of the veterans mentioned will bring back a player with any hope of being useful in the major leagues. Trading veterans is a way for the owners to save money. As a fan, it doesn't benefit me one bit.

#16 Physics Guy

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 06:22 PM

I'm sorry, but I don't see the value in trading any of those veterans. The return is always the same. "The Twins agreed to trade X veteran for Billy Nochance today. Nochance is a right-handed reliever with a 5.45 ERA in 24 innings at AA Bumtown, VA. He works in the high 80s, sometimes touching 90. He has 11 Ks and 15 walks this season with a 1-3 record. He's 28 years-old." None of the veterans mentioned will bring back a player with any hope of being useful in the major leagues. Trading veterans is a way for the owners to save money. As a fan, it doesn't benefit me one bit.


It benefits you as a fan in that it allows young players a chance to prove themselves in preparation for future years. Trading Correia allows Meyer/May to start for the Twins and get their feet wet, rather than waiting until next year. You are correct in that the players we get for the vets may not ever pan out, but Correia, Willingham, Morales and Suzuki are all potentially gone at the end of the season. If they can get something of value, why not? I don't advocate just dumping them for a bag of balls, but I think Ryan has been able to make trades for good prospects in the lower levels (think Butera for Sulbaran).

#17 DocBauer

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 06:31 PM

I have to say I'm pleased, surprised and proud how the Twins have rebounded the past week in Seattle and Colorado. This team has shown fight and resiliency this year, something not always seen the past two years. (I tend to give a pass on the 2011 team as we returned the majority of our roster from 2010, quality guys and players, with horrible injury problems) Despite some early moves out of ST that were highly questionable, mass injuries in waves first to the OF, then the infield, even when losing the team has been competitive, very seldom losing by more than a run or two, even mounting effort end comebacks in some of those losses. This is a far more competitive team than the past couple seasons.

Hats of to Karnak clone Dave who predicted the twins recent run before the break. "We're not worthy!"

I don't know if it's a fair or accurate assessment, but, I've heard all season that the Twins second half should be, in theory, less challenging than the first half. And it would appear that starting the next "half" of the season at home could be a nice springboard. 6 games under .500 at this point, and more competitive at this point shows definite improvement. I don't believe the team cam make up 6 games with a blistering couple weeks in July. But if they could, or could close the gap to 2-3 games under, I like the chances to finish .500 or a couple games above...maybe.

Why? Because even with the inevitable trades of Willingham and Correia, unsure of anyone else for various reasons, Santana and Mauer healthy, the hopefully healthy return of Nolasco, and an August and September that should, for the first time in 3 years, see some exciting auditions. For a team that is showing more "gumption" than it's predacessors, has some talented youngsters up, more to come, I can see a team with a goal and a spark.

Of course, I remain an eternal optimist!

I want to echo the sentiment to see the youngsters who are a part of the future the second half. Truly, I don't care if these kids come up tomorrow, or September 1st. I say this for three reasons: 1) I believe in developing prospects, not rushing, not promoting just for the sake of it. Sometimes finishing the milb season and getting that Sept. call up is the best course. 2) It sounds easy to type things like "trade so and so, and just cut so and so". In reality, it's not always quite so defined and easy to accomplish. 3) Even on a rebuilding team, working at getting younger, young prospects either knocking on the door or getting close, having a couple/few solid, quality veterans to lead and learn from is not a bad thing. Suzuki just as an example. I sooo want Pino to get his shot like he did last season to close out 2013. And even if the Twins did trade him, they could re-sign him during the offseason...maybe. But then again, he's meant a lot to the team this season. So maybe, as a whole, the Twins are just better with his knowledge and leadership. Just a thought, not an answer.

#18 jimbo92107

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 06:35 PM

Bring up May, Darnell, Meyer, Tonkin, Pinto and Ramirez. Make room however you feel. Move Hicks to AAA, learn how to be a hitter.

#19 twinsnorth49

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 08:55 PM

The team has certainly shown a lot more compete this year. The starting pitching, while not anything to celebrate has at least hung around long enough to keep them in the game more consistently than the past two years, they have been easier to watch at the very least.

Gibson's progress has been positive, Arcia has shown glimpses of a long term power bat, Santana looks like he might be a player, Dozier is for real, Pinto appears to have a future especially if his defense moves closer to his ability at the plate, Parms and Plouffe look like they can be useful bench pieces on a good team and that doesn't even cover Meyer, May, Berrios, Sano, Buxton, Vargas et al that are on the cusp.

Record or not, I'm feeling pretty optimistic.

#20 DocBauer

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 09:39 PM

The team has certainly shown a lot more compete this year. The starting pitching, while not anything to celebrate has at least hung around long enough to keep them in the game more consistently than the past two years, they have been easier to watch at the very least.

Gibson's progress has been positive, Arcia has shown glimpses of a long term power bat, Santana looks like he might be a player, Dozier is for real, Pinto appears to have a future especially if his defense moves closer to his ability at the plate, Parms and Plouffe look like they can be useful bench pieces on a good team and that doesn't even cover Meyer, May, Berrios, Sano, Buxton, Vargas et al that are on the cusp.

Record or not, I'm feeling pretty optimistic.


What he said.

"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

 

--Lou Brown


#21 Torstein

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 07:10 AM

Stop the Seller's mentality and focus on WINNING! I can't believe how many fans suck into the selling talent at the trading deadline as a way to get better. I don't want washed up mediocre veterans taking at-bats away from young talent, but somehow our young talent always seems to be a year away. I've had it with losing and the Twins have a loser's mentality. It's time to stop thinking about August/September as a AAAA tryout period and try to win every game. I don't get why Twins' fans continually give this team a pass.

#22 mike wants wins

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 07:26 AM

Torstein, welcome to the boards. I don't think anyone here is giving them a pass. But, this collection of veterans isn't winning anything. Keeping them won't really get you what you want this year. You may as well trade them, and get something (like a lottery ticket) than just let them walk and get nothing. That's how I view it anyway.
Lighten up Francis....

#23 h2oface

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 12:11 PM

Pinto should be traded, not Suzuki. Suzuki leads the pitching meetings, and is a leader behind the plate. A young staff will need that. Pinto will not be the answer for the next Twins young catcher. The answer will be Stuart Turner or more probably, Mitch Garver (check out what he does with the bat in ceadar rapids and he was one of three finalists for the 2013 Johnny Bench Award that was won by Turner) Suzuki, even if he bats .250, is the transition catcher that needs extended for two years sooner than later. I would even say immediately if not sooner.

#24 spanman2

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 02:52 PM

I would also add that bringing back Fuld would not be a bad idea. Would be a very valuable 4th OF on a good team. Certainly entertaining Suzuki trade offers with the understanding you want to try an resign him in the off season would be very beneficial to the club. I think the next 13 games or so will be the litmus test of where Ryan goes with the club.




Real improvement will be any that is carried into next year.

There are some players that we can have more confidence as part of the solution than last year at the break.

Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson all improved their stock in the last year.

Trevor Plouffe and Chris Parmelee show signs that they are capable of being a role player on a good major league team.

Glen Perkins and Casey Fien continue to be solid in the bullpen.

Danny Santana has shown a glimpse of the player he might become in his small sample.

Trevor May looked like he might be a reliever last year and now there is hope of a mid rotation starter.

Kurt Suzuki has outperformed anyone's expectations and has increased his market value. This is exactly what you hope for when signing a veteran coming off a bad season. They have an opportunity to cash in on his performance and consider resigning him in the winter.

Let's hope we can add Alex Meyer, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia and Josmil Pinto to the list in a year.

On the other hand, Joe Mauer and Ricky Nolasco are critical to the teams success in 2015-2017. They need to approach their previous level of performance when they return this year.


#25 Torstein

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 03:36 PM

Why trade Suzuki unless someone blows you away with an offer? Who's going to replace him? Pinto hasn't shown he's going to be a playoff caliber catcher based on his terrible defense. The standard for this team has to be that you trade FOR a guy - not just trade one of your guys to unload them before the trading deadline. It's time to get off the mediocrity treadmill Twins FO.

#26 mike wants wins

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Posted 16 July 2014 - 07:39 AM

The stats say Suzuki is a bad defensive catcher (if you believe in pitch framing).
Lighten up Francis....

#27 JB_Iowa

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Posted 16 July 2014 - 07:44 AM

The stats say Suzuki is a bad defensive catcher (if you believe in pitch framing).


But Mike, pitch framing isn't ALL that makes up the defensive side of catching, is it? I know statistically Suzuki doesn't seem to do that well on throwing out runners, etc. But pitchers seem to be pretty positive about the way he calls a game (and takes control). In addition, he is one tough cookie out there.

It seems to me that you have to weigh how all of those things relate. There appears to be some "art" (calling the game) and some "science" (the stats) involved.

I really don't have strong feelings on retaining Suzuki. But it does appear to me that the Twins may never be comfortable with Pinto behind the plate (at least not as the primary catcher). So that does make it look like they need a bridge to someone further down in the system.

#28 mike wants wins

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Posted 16 July 2014 - 07:54 AM

Agreed, there is more to it than that. But we are learning, I think, that it is more important than we thought. There are catchers who consistently get balls called strikes, and that is super important. Clearly, I am not in the room with the Twins, but it is hard to see what Suzuki does well. He doesn't throw our runners, he doesn't pitch frame well. I'm not sure, since many teams ahve coaches call games, why his game calling matters, but it seems to. I just remember when Pelfry said he liked one catcher over another (it seems), but that his stats were actually better with the other. People think things are happening sometimes, even when it is clear they are not actually happening the way they think.

I'm ok if they re-sign him. But I'm baffled at what appears (other than Hicks and Santana in an emergency) to be a reluctance to let rookies come up and play here. If they aren't going to use Pinto, they should trade him, because I can guarantee another club will play him.
Lighten up Francis....

#29 jokin

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Posted 16 July 2014 - 08:02 AM

Clearly, I am not in the room with the Twins, but it is hard to see what Suzuki does well.


Suzuki is very good at keeping the low throws from becoming wild pitches. And he represents the antithesis to the typical Twins player of recent years lingering on the "day to day" list with minor dings.

#30 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 16 July 2014 - 08:18 AM

Mike and Jokin just summed up the good and the bad of Suzuki quite succinctly
in just two posts. I would add that Suzuki has changed his approach (late in his career) and that change has made him a better hitter. He might just maintain a higher level of offensive performance than he has in the past. I would also add that we are talking about a couple months of a losing season. I don't think the odds of signing him for 15/16 change much if you trade him now. Therefore, you take future value if a contender offers it. The Twins have often held on for the sake of a couple extra wins when they could have (in theory) gotten value.

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 16 July 2014 - 08:20 AM.