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Article: A Tale of Two Gibsons

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#1 iTwins

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 08:42 AM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...-of-Two-Gibsons

#2 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:13 AM

Really well done. Great breakdown.

#3 Gernzy

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:27 AM

Data overload! Amazing work on the article. I was at the game on 06/18 in Boston and it was the best I've seem him pitch. The Sox couldn't touch him.

#4 JB_Iowa

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:36 AM

Reposted from when this was a blog entry:

[FONT=verdana]Hopefully, Gibson can improve on these results as he continues to learn and grow. He’ll need to learn how to pitch when his best stuff just isn’t with him – even Kevin Correia and Ricky Nolasco can turn in quality outings when their command is evading them.

I wonder if last night wasn't part of that learning process.

Len 3 tweeted:
LaVelle E. Neal III @LaVelleNeal · 20h

Gibson was solid but not spectacular. Failure to throw strike one kept him from pitching deeper in game.

So even though he apparently didn't have his best stuff, he perservered.

Thanks for all the analysis. It'll be interesting to follow this the rest of the season.[/FONT]

#5 Thegrin

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 02:07 PM

This post confirms what I have felt about Gibson all season. Gibson is his own worst enemy. He has a very good sinker and a good fastball, but he looses focus when his control is not the best. He thinks about his results instead of "trusting his stuff". This causes him to continue having control problems. He has to learn to focus on what he is going to throw and where he is going to throw it instead of thinking about what he just threw and where he threw it.
The game in Seattle was a very positive sign. He did not have his best stuff, but still he kept pitching himself out of trouble. Maybe he has learned some things. If he has, we can look forward to a very good second half from Gibson.

#6 naobermiller

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 03:52 PM

Reposted from when this was a blog entry:

[FONT=verdana]Hopefully, Gibson can improve on these results as he continues to learn and grow. He’ll need to learn how to pitch when his best stuff just isn’t with him – even Kevin Correia and Ricky Nolasco can turn in quality outings when their command is evading them.

I wonder if last night wasn't part of that learning process.

Len 3 tweeted:
LaVelle E. Neal III @LaVelleNeal · 20h

Gibson was solid but not spectacular. Failure to throw strike one kept him from pitching deeper in game.

So even though he apparently didn't have his best stuff, he perservered.

Thanks for all the analysis. It'll be interesting to follow this the rest of the season.[/FONT]


Also reposting my response from the blog entry. While it's hard to argue with 6 innings of shut out ball, in a low leverage game like that you'd hope he could go a little deeper. Gibson was able to work out of the jams he put himself in though.

#7 JB_Iowa

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 04:09 PM

Also reposting my response from the blog entry. While it's hard to argue with 6 innings of shut out ball, in a low leverage game like that you'd hope he could go a little deeper. Gibson was able to work out of the jams he put himself in though.


I hope the start in Seattle was a sign of growing maturity. Figuring out that even if he doesn't have his best stuff, he can keep the game in reach.

I see it as a positive sign. But he's got a lot of learning still to do. The key is finding out how to keep those good outings while keeping it going when things aren't so good.

I guess I think that's why it'll be interesting to see this develop. I agree that it is unusual to see such a bold line of demarcation between the good & the bad but I do see the last outing as somewhere between the two (even though the results fell on the good side).

We have the contrast between Pino who has seemingly learned the craftiness to get through some of the bad and Gibson who is still young enough that he has a lot to learn that craft. It's part of maturing as a pitcher, I think.

#8 twinsnorth49

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 04:13 PM

Great write up.

He looked liked a pretty mature pitcher last night, he struggled a bit but most importantly he placed his pitches when he needed to place them, something he didn't do much of at all last season.

#9 glunn

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 05:54 PM

Great article. It reminds me of a Parker Hagueman piece, which I always learn from. Well done!

#10 Dantes929

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 09:43 PM

A few more observations. The league average for quality starts is .50. Gibson is at .56. Hughes is only at .61 and for the Correia detractors he is at .56 also which is where he was last year. In other words, not ace material but better than average. I would imagine based on quality starts it puts him at least as a #3 pitcher. Gibson has a 6 ERA with more than 5 days rest but looks like he is at his best with exactly 5 days off and there seems to be a consensus with announcers that you don't want sinkerballers to have too much rest so this may be one of the significant factors. His ERA is 21 at domed stadiums and he pitches better in the daytime.

#11 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 13 July 2014 - 11:16 AM

Quality work, iTwins! This is the kind of stuff that helps make TD such a great place. Thanks!

#12 spycake

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Posted 13 July 2014 - 12:24 PM

A few more observations. The league average for quality starts is .50. Gibson is at .56. Hughes is only at .61 and for the Correia detractors he is at .56 also which is where he was last year. In other words, not ace material but better than average. I would imagine based on quality starts it puts him at least as a #3 pitcher. Gibson has a 6 ERA with more than 5 days rest but looks like he is at his best with exactly 5 days off and there seems to be a consensus with announcers that you don't want sinkerballers to have too much rest so this may be one of the significant factors. His ERA is 21 at domed stadiums and he pitches better in the daytime.


League average for quality starts is not a good measure for judging a starter -- it fails to account at all for the pitcher's performance in nearly half of his starts! Judging by his overall numbers, Correia must be pretty bad in his other starts (not to mention, how often does one greatly exceed the qualty start definition and give his team an excellent chance of winning).

There is nothing here that isn't captured better than the overall numbers, really.