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Trade opportunities -players dropping like flies

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#21 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 07:11 AM

Maybe it is just me, but it would take more than just one prospect rated 25th. That is in the Berrios/Stewart range. With Dozier, I think we are starting to know what we can expect. Very good defense, 20-20+ potential, a guy that gets on base, etc that plays a scarce position. Many prospects in that range may simply "project" as having a simlar trajectory as Dozier and frankly, a good chunk of them won't hit that projection. Some may never stick in the big leagues and some may end up being bench players.


Yeah, as I said in another thread, it all depends on the player. "Top 25" is basically code for "elite prospect". If it's near the bottom of that scale, it will require another guy with upside.

For example, I'd trade Dozier straight-up for a non-injured Sano (and obviously Buxton). I wouldn't trade Dozier straight-up for Alex Meyer or Kohl Stewart.

#22 spycake

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 07:35 AM

I like Suzuki and would take him back next year, but considering he's having his best season at 31, the odds are that whoever does get him next year will be in for a pretty big let down.


Yup. And we have Pinto in the wings, who may not be ready to be the 2015 primary starter yet, but he's worth a greater investment of playing time. It's not like we'd be starting Fryer or Herrmann in Sukuzi's place.

Plus, none of our other popular trade chips are doing anything. Correia's got the same 84 ERA+ he posted the previous 6 seasons, Willingham is quickly falling back to his 2013 "he might be cooked" levels, Morales has done nothing for the Twins so far, and the bullpen has been "meh" outside of Perkins and maybe Fien (peripherals if not performance too).

Not saying Suzuki will get a great prospect, but by virtue of steady performance and modest contract this year, he should net something better than he has the past two summers (when he was dealt as an expensive backup). And he might be the only one of these Twins trade chips to fetch anything right now.

#23 jokin

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 07:44 AM

No GM with a brain would underbid for Dozier because of those stats. Would they hem and haw over those stats to reduce their perceived interest? Certainly, that's good bargaining.

But at the end of the day, Dozier will command a top 25 prospect and they all know it.

Again, not advocating that the Twins trade Dozier.


What if a Dozier trade involves a healthy Bundy, Aaron Sanchez, or Syndergaard?

#24 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 07:45 AM

What if a Dozier trade involves a healthy Bundy, Sanchez, or Syndergaard?


I'm all for trading anybody if the return is better than what you're giving up.

So yeah, probably.

#25 zenser

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 07:59 AM

I am guessing the Cardinals would probably look at AJ or John Buck first rather than make a trade for Suzuki.

#26 gunnarthor

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 08:02 AM

I am guessing the Cardinals would probably look at AJ or John Buck first rather than make a trade for Suzuki.

Reports out of St Louis say the have no interest in AJ. Mild on Buck.

I do hope the Twins try and trade Suzuki. They got Gilmartin for Doumit and Suliman (sp) for Buetera. Both were top 15 prospects in their orgs. Catchers are more valuable than we think.

#27 jay

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 08:20 AM

I'd need to be even more blown away than that to trade Dozier. All the chatter to trade him just doesn't make any sense at all.

He's pretty darn close to establishing himself as a top 10 2B, if he hasn't already. He just turned 27 and is cost controlled through 2018 at which time he'll be 31. Those are exactly the kind of guys the Twins need if they hope to contend. Prospects are great, but trading him away just opens up another hole that would need to be filled with a competent, performing MLBer... and those aren't easy to come by.

The only way you trade him is if you don't think this team has a chance to contend until 2019. I'd hope we're closer than that...

#28 spycake

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 08:24 AM

I like Dozier, and I think there is almost a zero percent chance they trade him because they like him too... but could this be selling high? Should we be a little less picky about what return we demand?

If he's a true 108 OPS+ hitter like he has been this year, that's solid up the middle. But a lot of that OPS+ is based on a handful of line-drive HR (and extra walks) in his age-26 and age-27 seasons. Would it be all that surprising to see him level off closer to his overall 2013 OPS+ of 98? We were all tantalized by the changes he made with Bruno and his last 4 months in 2013 as a ~120 OPS+ hitter, but given his profile and his recent cooling off, maybe his overall numbers from last season are more instructive going forward, given his modest background and streaky tendencies.

A 98 OPS+ player with solid defense up the middle, at pre-arb (2015) and arb (2016-2018) salaries, is certainly valuable. But it probably isn't worth an elite prospect, right? That offensive profile isn't that different than Trevor Plouffe.

(And not to compare them, but I remember another modest prospect 26-27 year old Twin who had a line-drive HR binge: Lew Ford. 118 OPS+ through age 27, still 105 OPS+ through a tougher age-28 season, then collapse. Not saying Dozier will do that, but the age, prospect status, and curious power tendencies are similar.)

#29 gunnarthor

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 08:32 AM

Reds just lost Phillips for the year and Votto for a bit. If they would package something around Robert Stephenson, or if Bundy could be pried away from Baltimore or if the Nats decide to fix their second base problems long term and are willing to move Giolito, the Twins should move Dozier and hope that one of Polanco, Santana, Rosario can take over second. But absent something like that (Tavaras from St Louis would be amazing but I don't really see a need/fit to get him), I'd be ok with the Twins hanging onto Dozier. He can be a piece when the Twins are good again.

#30 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 08:38 AM

If the Cardinals want to replace Molina with someone outside the org, they'll have to play better defense than AJ, and hit better than Buck. Suzuki is the best of the three, though I'm guessing the Cardinals will really miss Molina's defense no matter who replaces him.

Suzuki is probably the most attractive option for St. Louis, assuming they can't pry Russell Martin away from their division rivals.


The Twins should make the Cardinals (or anyone else interested in Suzuki) pay a premium for the best available catcher on the market.

#31 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 08:41 AM

I like Dozier, and I think there is almost a zero percent chance they trade him because they like him too... but could this be selling high? Should we be a little less picky about what return we demand?


In short, no. Dozier is probably going to be a bit streaky, as he relies on power for a large portion of his OPS.

But his walk rate is great, his defense is very good, and he has been pretty consistent since tweaking his swing with Bruno. He's the type of player you keep around as a complementary piece unless you're blown away with an offer.

Now if Rosario kills it and the Twins magically don't have room in the OF, then you consider trading Dozier... But without another second basemen, you're just filling one hole and opening another if you trade Dozier so the return better be substantial.

#32 Boom Boom

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 08:41 AM

The market is setting up perfectly for the Twins to trade Suzuki. I hope they don't fool themselves into thinking that a) they're a playoff factor and B) Suzuki will continue to hit way above his career marks.

#33 spycake

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 08:46 AM

He's pretty darn close to establishing himself as a top 10 2B, if he hasn't already.


What's a top-10 2B worth? Dozier ranks 7th in 2B fWAR this year, behind Altuve, Murphy, and Dee Gordon, tied with Zobrist, and roughly just a half-win ahead of Scooter Gennett.

Last year, Dozier ranked 8th in 2B fWAR, just behind Murphy again and just ahead of Neil Walker and Marco Scutaro. (If you throw out his first two months and prorate the rest of his 2013 season, he'd probably jump to fifth or sixth, right around Kipnis.)

Seems like top-10 is a lot less meaningful than top-5, and Dozier seems at best on the fringes of that distinction, with no record of (or likelihood of?) spikes up to 1 or 2 occasionally. Definitely good and useful, especially while cheap, but not elite and possibly worth surrendering for an elite prospect, or a combination of very good prospects.

#34 gunnarthor

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 08:50 AM

What's a top-10 2B worth? Dozier ranks 7th in 2B fWAR this year, behind Altuve, Murphy, and Dee Gordon, tied with Zobrist, and roughly just a half-win ahead of Scooter Gennett.

Last year, Dozier ranked 8th in 2B fWAR, just behind Murphy again and just ahead of Neil Walker and Marco Scutaro. (If you throw out his first two months and prorate the rest of his 2013 season, he'd probably jump to fifth or sixth, right around Kipnis.)

Seems like top-10 is a lot less meaningful than top-5, and Dozier seems at best on the fringes of that distinction, with no record of (or likelihood of?) spikes up to 1 or 2 occasionally. Definitely good and useful, especially while cheap, but not elite and possibly worth surrendering for an elite prospect, or a combination of very good prospects.

Depends on what the other team thinks of him. If they think he's a consistent 3.5 WAR guy over the next 4.5 years (and he was better than that last year and this year), then they are trading for a pretty cheap 15 WAR. That brings back a big return.

#35 Willihammer

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:01 AM

If the Twins are entertaining the idea of trading Dozier for more prospects then I'm done. He's a good player and at 27 should be plenty young enough to be part of The Next Winning Twins Team. To trade him for prospects (and I doubt the Twins will, but if they did), that says to me they are not even trying for a 5-6 year rebuild, which is long enough, but a 10 year rebuild which just makes you a losing franchise.

#36 jorgenswest

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:11 AM

The Twins can't wait to long on Suzuki. There will be other guys available.

Want an elite pitch framer? Jose Molina and Rene Rivera could be available. Cardinals could be a fit.

Have some money? How about Miguel Montero? Dodgers could be a fit.

Want some team control? Jason Castro could fit the Blue Jays or Dodgers.

Carlos Ruiz should be playing again after the break. He would be an inexpensive short term buy. The Orioles could be a fit.

Someone will give A.J. an opportunity.

If the prospect cost is reasonable, Kurt Suzuki would be a better fit in some of these places.

Can the Twins leverage enough return without pricing him out of the market? Might the Twins be willing to take a little less from the Orioles or Cards knowing that they would not retain Suzuki in 2015?

#37 gunnarthor

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:12 AM

If the Twins are entertaining the idea of trading Dozier for more prospects then I'm done. He's a good player and at 27 should be plenty young enough to be part of The Next Winning Twins Team. To trade him for prospects (and I doubt the Twins will, but if they did), that says to me they are not even trying for a 5-6 year rebuild, which is long enough, but a 10 year rebuild which just makes you a losing franchise.

I'm not sure that's true. What if Baltimore was willing to give up Dylan Bundy? With Rosario, Santana and Polanco, the Twins should get decent production from second base after Dozier is gone and Bundy could anchor a rotation for years. Not saying that would happen but that's the type of trade the Twins would have to make and it wouldn't greatly affect the time table of the Sano/Buxton/Meyer foundation. But they shouldn't trade Dozier for a low A prospect, IMHO.

#38 spycake

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:13 AM

In short, no. Dozier is probably going to be a bit streaky, as he relies on power for a large portion of his OPS.

But his walk rate is great, his defense is very good, and he has been pretty consistent since tweaking his swing with Bruno. He's the type of player you keep around as a complementary piece unless you're blown away with an offer.

Now if Rosario kills it and the Twins magically don't have room in the OF, then you consider trading Dozier... But without another second basemen, you're just filling one hole and opening another if you trade Dozier so the return better be substantial.


Normally, I'd be right there with you. A player with Dozier's current numbers, position, and contract status is a clear keeper.

But that streakiness and power reliance is what has me worried a little. If his HR and BB drop just a hair further (not unlikely given the nature of his power and the recent addition of bonus walks in conjunction with said power), he's basically Trevor Plouffe at the plate this year, high-90's OPS+. That kind of player can be useful, particularly cheap and up the middle, but his trade value would decrease quite a bit.

That said, it's only really an important distinction if somebody was willing to pay for him now like he was a true-talent 120 OPS+ 2B ("blown away with an offer"), and that is probably unlikely given the facts above.

#39 twinsfan34

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:16 AM

Suzuki doesn't profile as that good a hitter. His value is at an all-time high.


Yes. You sell high. Billy Beane, etc...or anybody in anything, you sell high. And the thing is, he's a FA at the end of the year. Handle him right and you can go back after him after the year (if he goes to STL). So he gets to play in a positive clubhouse, a chance at a WS ring, and then can still come back to MN if he wants to. This is something you have to do.

#40 jorgenswest

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:21 AM

The Twins will keep Dozier. No one is going to blow them away with an offer. He isn't going to be the game changer for a team in the playoffs. Elite starting pitching can be a game changer. Those guys will get a return beyond their value.