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Berrios is welcomed to AA

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#1 gunnarthor

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 03:50 PM

5 innings, 5 er, 3bb, 3hits, 2 homers, 4ks.

The concern with him has been that his stuff is too flat and good hitters will hit it over the wall.

#2 JB_Iowa

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 03:56 PM

  • Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson 3h
    Radcliff saw Berrios (5 ER, 5 IP) at AA today. "Threw hard. Used all his pitches. Good approach and learning day. Scouting assessment good."


    As with Burdi, let's give him a few outings to settle in before we reach any conclusions.

#3 TheLeviathan

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 04:01 PM

All part of prospect growth. Glad it's happening now and not next year.

#4 SD Buhr

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 04:19 PM

All part of prospect growth. Glad it's happening now and not next year.


Exactly. It's interesting how the baseball gods just seem to sit and wait for opportunities to provide lessons in humility just about the time everyone in the world starts telling you how good you are.

Those lessons make good players better in the long run.

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#5 Brandon

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 05:01 PM

So he gave up 3 hits in 18 at bats. 2 mistakes resulting in HRs. 4 Ks in 5 innings. a little wild with 3 walks probably nerves. How is this a bad performance besides the 2 HRs. I mean even with the 3 walks he had a WHIP of 1.2 which is better than a lot of players on our team now.

#6 gunnarthor

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 05:41 PM

This was posted at minorleague ball as well. Sickel's two word response: "he'll adjust."

Good to hear the scouting view of him was solid. Still like him as a prospect and it's good completely agree with Leviathan that he's learning this year.

#7 Seth Stohs

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 07:14 PM

For about 1/2 hour last night, I chatted With Gary Lucas who was Berrios's pitching coach in Ft. Myers this year and Cedar Rapids last year. He says he's ready. Obviously I'll write more about this, but he was incredibly complimentary of Berrios.

Obviously we all know that it's not going to be easy for a 20 year old to face guys who are 4-7 years older than him

Also, expect Berrios to skip a start or two following the Futures Game, just to keep his innings down. He was at 103 last year, and he's already right about there. They'd like to see him get to 145-150 innings this year.

#8 DocBauer

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 07:22 PM

20 years old and already in AA facing lineups that sit, generally, at ages 22 on the low side to 27 on the high. Only one start, probably excited and nervous, might not have even slept last night, and still wasn't shelled.

Honestly, I was expecting something like this for his first start, possibly hit harder even.

Seth, can't wait to hear what you have to share from Lucas.

My prediction? A couple more rough or so-so starts followed by some real good ones that will make people wonder if he goes back to AA to start 2015, probably, whether he jumps straight to AAA, probably not, and speculation how long he'll be in AA before promotion if not.

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#9 Brandon

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 08:17 PM

looks like he only has about 50 innings left this season based on what Seth just posted. So he'll likely be back at AA next year to start the season. That's ok. Next year he'll only be a phone call away whether at AA or when he goes to AAA eventually.

#10 DocBauer

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 09:39 PM

Exactly! If he is what I think he is, what a lot of us believe he is, he'll be pushing for Rochester by the all star break.

"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

 

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#11 h2oface

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Posted 10 July 2014 - 03:42 AM

Obviously we all know that it's not going to be easy for a 20 year old to face guys who are 4-7 years older than him.


ouch! that is not writing the storybook chapter.
............. and what about the 24 year old that is pitching to a 28-31 year old? I think age is so very very over rated.

Edited by h2oface, 10 July 2014 - 03:44 AM.


#12 mike wants wins

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Posted 10 July 2014 - 07:47 AM

This is actually why I wanted him up this year, and am glad he is. Adjusting this year, not next. Not worried at all at this point, though the HR ball is the concern that some scouts have with him.
Lighten up Francis....

#13 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 July 2014 - 08:28 AM

My prediction? A couple more rough or so-so starts followed by some real good ones that will make people wonder if he goes back to AA to start 2015, probably, whether he jumps straight to AAA, probably not, and speculation how long he'll be in AA before promotion if not.


My guess is that no matter what happens, Berrios will start 2015 in New Britain. He's not going to get many innings at AA this season before he's shut down and the Twins won't feel a need to rush the kid. By all accounts he has tremendous stuff and an even better head on his shoulders but starting him in AA next season gives him a better opportunity to succeed. They can easily promote him to Rochester at any time during the season.

#14 chopper0080

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Posted 10 July 2014 - 08:34 AM

This is actually why I wanted him up this year, and am glad he is. Adjusting this year, not next. Not worried at all at this point, though the HR ball is the concern that some scouts have with him.


Also a big reason I would like to see Meyer and May get some starts in the bigs. It is always nice as an athlete to know what you need to work on. Then you can set a plan and work it. One of the most difficult things is to not know what you need to do which can lead to delayed development. By being promoted at this point of the season, Berrios is going to be able to go into the offseason with a better idea of what he needs to work on. That is important for a young player. IT should be the same for May and Meyer. Call them up after the All Star break, let them get a feel for the difference between AAA and the Pros, and let them go into the offseason with an idea of where they need to improve. That way, to start 2015, they can head into Spring Training with the best opportunity to make the roster.

#15 cattlefeeder

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Posted 10 July 2014 - 09:55 AM

Agree with all of you.

Get Meyer and May up sooner rather than later. Hopefully there's no horsing around with the Super 2 date next year. 2015 needs to be viewed as a year for contending and every game might count. If they can hang around .500 as long as they did this year, there's no reason that all of these guys shouldn't be on the table, April, May, June, whenever:

Meyer
May
Berrios
Burdi

Sano
Buxton
Vargas
Ortiz

The window starts to open next season - don't give a year away. Empty out the farm system. The only guys that shouldn't be considered available are probably Stewart, Gordon and maybe Polanco.

#16 cmb0252

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Posted 10 July 2014 - 10:28 AM

Berrios actually performed better than I expected. Outside of the jump to the pros going from A+ to AA is considered the hardest. Good for him.

As for May and Meyers I think they both need to see the bigs this year but in different roles. May needs to be in the rotation as soon as he is healthy. As for Meyer they aren't going to over work him this year so I doubt he starts in the bigs. Throwing him the Twins bullpen at the end of the year would at least give him a chance to face big league hitters.

#17 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 10 July 2014 - 12:38 PM

ouch! that is not writing the storybook chapter.
............. and what about the 24 year old that is pitching to a 28-31 year old? I think age is so very very over rated.


Not really. Players peak on a pretty typical scale. 27-32 is considered the peak range when their production on average tops out. When a guy is getting the job done at age 24, that bodes very well for him as he ages. The 24 year old is still getting better. Given that Berrios is 20 and in AA, that's a very good thing, even if he ends up repeating AA to start next season.

#18 Monkeypaws

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Posted 10 July 2014 - 12:58 PM

ouch! that is not writing the storybook chapter.
............. and what about the 24 year old that is pitching to a 28-31 year old? I think age is so very very over rated.


It's not just age but experience.

#19 drivlikejehu

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Posted 10 July 2014 - 02:00 PM

Not really. Players peak on a pretty typical scale. 27-32 is considered the peak range when their production on average tops out. When a guy is getting the job done at age 24, that bodes very well for him as he ages. The 24 year old is still getting better. Given that Berrios is 20 and in AA, that's a very good thing, even if he ends up repeating AA to start next season.


Players peak earlier than that. Here's a recent Fangraphs article on hitters:

http://www.fangraphs...k-only-decline/

Pitchers:

http://www.fangraphs...-and-relievers/

So the typical peak age is more like 25-26. Of course individual players vary but there's nothing unusual about a talented player moving up the ranks at a young age. That's what we should expect to see.

#20 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 July 2014 - 02:09 PM

Players peak earlier than that. Here's a recent Fangraphs article on hitters:

http://www.fangraphs...k-only-decline/

Pitchers:

http://www.fangraphs...-and-relievers/

So the typical peak age is more like 25-26. Of course individual players vary but there's nothing unusual about a talented player moving up the ranks at a young age. That's what we should expect to see.


Yeah, I've read a couple of articles that suggest the previously thought 26-28 peak years are now trending toward 25-27.

#21 jokin

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 03:55 PM

Yeah, I've read a couple of articles that suggest the previously thought 26-28 peak years are now trending toward 25-27.


Yep...hence why some here perceive "extreme angst" when others are simply pushing the notion, based on the best data at hand, to get your best prospects up before they hit their peak years and not during...or even in the Twins case, after...

#22 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 07:30 AM

Yep...hence why some here perceive "extreme angst" when others are simply pushing the notion, based on the best data at hand, to get your best prospects up before they hit their peak years and not during...or even in the Twins case, after...


Regardless of whether or not they are ready? I think that's kind of extreme isn't it? This should be a case by case thing.

#23 jokin

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 10:20 AM

Regardless of whether or not they are ready? I think that's kind of extreme isn't it? This should be a case by case thing.


That's the point- and there's nothing extreme about it, at all. The organization is on record stating that there's a world of difference between AAA and the majors. When your top prospects are demonstrating that they are among the top performers at a given level and project as major leaguers as potential impact players, the only way to know for certain if they are ready for the jump, is to have them jump. (Witness Santana.) If they have to make a return trip to AAA, so be it- teams do this with top prospects all the time- it's part of the maturation process, there is absolutely nothing extreme about this notion (the mistake with Hicks was when he demonstrated he wasn't ready- and should have been sent down by the end of April,2013, the Twins had no other options available, and Hicks' unreadiness eventually crushed his spirit).

Edited by jokin, 12 July 2014 - 10:22 AM.


#24 Twins Twerp

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 11:23 AM

That's the point- and there's nothing extreme about it, at all. The organization is on record stating that there's a world of difference between AAA and the majors. When your top prospects are demonstrating that they are among the top performers at a given level and project as major leaguers as potential impact players, the only way to know for certain if they are ready for the jump, is to have them jump. (Witness Santana.) If they have to make a return trip to AAA, so be it- teams do this with top prospects all the time- it's part of the maturation process, there is absolutely nothing extreme about this notion (the mistake with Hicks was when he demonstrated he wasn't ready- and should have been sent down by the end of April,2013, the Twins had no other options available, and Hicks' unreadiness eventually crushed his spirit).

This is a skewed view on young people, how to run a franchise, and baseball in general imo. It is definately a case by case basis and a team should always lean towards the conservative. So you make a case, then point out when the twins followed your view...it didnt work. No counter post needed...hicks is a great example on why AAA time is important. I am fine with waiting until July to call up May and/or Meyer. Hell Meyer didnt even play a full season in AA and HAS been pushed.

#25 PseudoSABR

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 11:25 AM

Yep...hence why some here perceive "extreme angst" when others are simply pushing the notion, based on the best data at hand, to get your best prospects up before they hit their peak years and not during...or even in the Twins case, after...

What's extreme is using aggregate notions about peak years to any one case. What's extreme is assuming the best data (whether it's minor league numbers or aggregate studies) available overrides unquantifiable issues like maturity, injury history, fit, ability to handle missteps, coachability, etc. What's extreme is bolding key words for emphasis. What's extreme is suggesting the Twins actually promote people after their peak years.

Edited by PseudoSABR, 12 July 2014 - 11:35 AM.


#26 jokin

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 03:02 PM

This is a skewed view on young people, how to run a franchise, and baseball in general imo. It is definately a case by case basis and a team should always lean towards the conservative. So you make a case, then point out when the twins followed your view...it didnt work. No counter post needed...hicks is a great example on why AAA time is important. I am fine with waiting until July to call up May and/or Meyer. Hell Meyer didnt even play a full season in AA and HAS been pushed.


Actually, the Twins didn't follow my view with Hicks or Santana. I urged them in March to let Santana come up to start the season to see if Florimon could get it together in the minors. I also predicted that Hicks was likely to fail initially and bounce back up and down a few times- as it happens to most major league players- and criticized the Twins contemporaneously when they started out 2013 with no Plan B in place (I urged them all off-season to sign one of the veteran CF cheap FAs).

As I stated, May and Meyer are the top prospects in the upper level of the Twins system, most other organizations in similar situations get their top pitching prospects to the majors to maximize their peak production years. And I'm actually on Gardy's side regarding Meyer, who publicly stated if he were the one in the decision-making role, he would have started out the season with Meyer in his bullepn.

Edited by jokin, 12 July 2014 - 03:18 PM.


#27 glunn

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 03:15 PM

Moderator warning -- some posters are getting too personal here and bordering on disrespect.

#28 jokin

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 03:19 PM

. What's extreme is suggesting the Twins actually promote people after their peak years.


I'm not suggesting that Berrios get promoted faster than he deserves based on how he demonstrates mastery at each successive level. Different clubs promote their best talents differently. Berrios, even if he produces similar numbers in New Britain, as he produced in Ft Myers, still should start out next year in New Britain. But if he continues on this level of production going into 2016 and has had no call-up by this date in July, then the point will remain the same.

Now regarding beyond peak year promotions....Bernier, Pino, Colabello, Johnson?

Edited by jokin, 12 July 2014 - 03:24 PM.


#29 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 08:13 PM

For about 1/2 hour last night, I chatted With Gary Lucas who was Berrios's pitching coach in Ft. Myers this year and Cedar Rapids last year. He says he's ready. Obviously I'll write more about this, but he was incredibly complimentary of Berrios.

Obviously we all know that it's not going to be easy for a 20 year old to face guys who are 4-7 years older than him

Also, expect Berrios to skip a start or two following the Futures Game, just to keep his innings down. He was at 103 last year, and he's already right about there. They'd like to see him get to 145-150 innings this year.


Thanks for being on top of this Seth. Great work.

#30 PseudoSABR

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Posted 13 July 2014 - 12:53 AM

I'm not suggesting that Berrios get promoted faster than he deserves based on how he demonstrates mastery at each successive level. Different clubs promote their best talents differently. Berrios, even if he produces similar numbers in New Britain, as he produced in Ft Myers, still should start out next year in New Britain. But if he continues on this level of production going into 2016 and has had no call-up by this date in July, then the point will remain the same.

So you're point is that a year from now you'll have a point? It seems extreme to press that issue. While someone like May may have shown success this year (or ended up like Gibson last year), the Berrios promotion seems totally appropriate given his age, prior season success, current success, and workload. Why press the issue of slow promotion here?

Now regarding beyond peak year promotions....Bernier, Pino, Colabello, Johnson?

Right. The Twins would have been better off if these guys were getting playing time before they actually had established themselves in the upper minors! That the Twins try to obtain value from devalued older players is somehow a fault to be used against them.