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Trade Likelyhoods

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#1 stringer bell

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 10:40 PM

Since my favorite source is cluttered with international signings and it is July, I thought I would start a thread about Twins' trade candidates. I think by the All-Star break the "why not us" will be "maybe next year" and veterans will be dangled for trade. There are a lot of factors about every deadline trade. I'll try to provide as much as I know about each trade candidate.

1) Kurt Suzuki. Value to Twins--High. Suzuki is highly regarded by the Twins and his prospective backup has struggled defensively. Value to other teams--High. Suzuki is a proven receiver and a good clubhouse guy. He's durable and is having a fine offensive year. 3) Contract--no problem. Suzuki is on a one-year deal and his $3M contract for two months would total about $1M. The only thing keeping the Twins from moving Suzuki is that he has been very good for the team, and he doesn't have an immediate replacement. I think there's only a 20-40% chance they trade him because of his value to the team.

2) Josh Willingham. Value to Twins--Medium high. Hammer is a top power threat for a team that doesn't have enough power. He's a poor, but willing fielder playing at less than a premium defensive position. Value to others--Medium high. He can give a power boost to a contender, but he's limited in the positions he can play. 3) Contract--For the last third of the season, he would be due $2.3M. That isn't nothing, but most clubs could afford his salary. I think the team will be trying hard to move Hammer. He's 35 and limited, but he could put a contender over the top to make the playoffs. 40-60% chance he'll be moved, either at the July deadline or in August.

3) Kevin Correia. Value to Twins--Medium low. He's an innings-eater and back of the rotation starter on a non-contender. The Twins have many prospective replacements. Value to other teams--Given his recent "surge", Medium to medium high. All contenders will be looking for pitching. 3) Not a problem. An expiring contract with about $1.8M due in the last two months. I expect Correia to be traded, with a somewhat disappointing return. 80% probability.

4) Brian Duensing. Value to Twins--medium low. He is a versatile lefty, who is having a pretty good year, despite diminishing peripherals. There are replacements in the system, but probably none offering the skill and experience. Value to others--Medium. He doesn't have great platoon splits to become a lefty specialist and he's not a strikeout artist. He provides depth, when contenders will be riding their best pitchers. Contact--less than a million will be due at the trade deadline. Not a problem. I think as least one of the Twins' bullpen will be moved. Duensing is a prime candidate--50% probability.

5) Jared Burton. Value to Twins--medium low. He's currently used in fairly high leverage situations. His effectiveness has diminished since his fine 2012 season. Replacements are available. Value to others--Medium low. Again, if he can recapture his magic from 2012, he would be a hot commodity. Not sure anybody will be willing to give anything for him. 3) Contract--a little much for a bullpen piece. More than a million due at the deadline, plus an .2M option buyout. I doubt anyone will offer anything of substance for Burton, but he could be released. 10% trade possibility.

6) Kendrys Morales. Value to Twins--medium low. A switch-hitting DH with a record of producing runs. Value to others--Perhaps pretty high. If a team needs a hitter at first or DH, Morales could be very valuable. Much depends on how he hits this month. Contract--Substantial--He'll be owed more than $4M for the last third of the season. If Morales finds his stroke in this month, the Twins could get something pretty good for him. If he's meh or worse, they won't get much and might want to hold on to him with the hope of re-signing him for 2015. Chance of being traded 40%.

7) Everybody else. The Twins could get brave and try to move Plouffe while his value is high and his salary is low. Somebody might want Casey Fien and maybe someone with an infield vacancy might inquire about Nuñez. The Twins could surprise us and move one of these guys.

#2 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 08:44 AM

Pretty good summary. I'd note with Suzuki that the Twins do have a replacement in Pinto. He's just going to have to learn some of that defense at the ML level, though his bat should more than compensate for some of those deficiencies... If the Twins are trading, they are out of it, so developing Pinto at the ML level makes sense given that his bat is ready now.

With KC, there's replacements who are more than ready to take his place. TR will have no leverage here, so I'm guessing at best we are looking at a Sulbaran type prospect, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was traded for cash considerations either. With his resurgence, he's a decent 5 starter, and some teams really really really need something like that right now.

With Duensing, we lose the ability to add his name to sweeten any trade for one of baseball stars... Loss to TD is immense.

#3 twinsfan34

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 09:50 AM

The only 'hiccup' I can see with trading or cleaning house...is will it deter players from signing here going forward?

I can Willingham or Morales being traded quite easily. Not sure about Suzuki...kinda have a feeling he may want to stay and the Twins may feel the same.

I'm fine with listening to any offers on anyone besides Dozier and Hughes.

#4 Kwak

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 09:55 AM

Of the name mentioned, Suzuki is the only one who would be perceived as "other than a salary dump" and capable of fetching a useful return. If the Twins are serious about retaining Suzuki--they need to sign him to a "suitable" contract extention before the end of July, or they had better trade him!

#5 ashburyjohn

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 10:02 AM

To assess the likelihood of trades, I think the expected value returned in trade has to be considered. Is this wrapped up in your "value to others" ratings? I.e. you think Suzuki would net us a better prospect than Willingham, who would net us a better prospect than Correia, who would... ?

Where does "pretty high" rank relative to "medium high"? :)

And ultimately, what kind of prospect do you think gets offered for someone of "high" value like Suzuki? I'm not sure much of anything important will be obtained for the guys with 2+ months remaining on their contracts, thanks in part to the recent changes in free agent compensation. (I bet Stephen Drew and our own Kendrys Morales wish they had been traded last July. :) )

Edited by ashburyjohn, 03 July 2014 - 10:08 AM.


#6 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 10:04 AM

The only 'hiccup' I can see with trading or cleaning house...is will it deter players from signing here going forward?


I'd say this is an issue for guys who signed long term deals and are 1 year in... not so much for guys like Hammer, Suzuki, or Morales. It's kind of expected in that scenario. Perkins, Nolasco (not that he'd fetch anything), and Hughes would be a different story.

#7 dougkoebernick

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 10:11 AM

I hope they make an offer to Suzuki to extend his contract a year or two and keep him before the trade deadline. However, I'm guessing it would take two years to make him sign and I'm not sure the Twins will want to commit two years to him - though if they do they can always trade him in 2016 if necessary.

#8 tobi0040

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 10:42 AM

I hope they make an offer to Suzuki to extend his contract a year or two and keep him before the trade deadline. However, I'm guessing it would take two years to make him sign and I'm not sure the Twins will want to commit two years to him - though if they do they can always trade him in 2016 if necessary.



I agree with almost everything on the write up. The one issue is I don't think Willingham's value to us is medium high. If we are in contention then I agree, I don't think we are making a run here though. He isn't going to be here next year....

I agree with Doug, I would like to see Suzuki get extended 1-2 years, unless it is crazy money. I don't think we trust Pinto at all and what is behind him or on the market next year is scary.

#9 spycake

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 10:48 AM

Suzuki isn't going anywhere -- the Twins clearly don't think Pinto is ready to be a full-time MLB catcher (if he ever will be). And I think Correia is staying too -- his value is always pretty low and there's already another open rotation spot for AAA starter auditions (currently occupied by Pino).

I think Willingham and Morales are about it for realistic trade candidates, and even then, they seem to value Hammer pretty highly, and Morales might not generate much interest unless his bat heats up.

The Twins have historically been very comfortable keeping guys and letting them leave as free agents, although most of that was before the new FA compensation rules. Still, I don't expect them to make any major moves.

#10 tobi0040

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 10:56 AM

Suzuki isn't going anywhere -- the Twins clearly don't think Pinto is ready to be a full-time MLB catcher (if he ever will be). And I think Correia is staying too -- his value is always pretty low and there's already another open rotation spot for AAA starter auditions (currently occupied by Pino).

I think Willingham and Morales are about it for realistic trade candidates, and even then, they seem to value Hammer pretty highly, and Morales might not generate much interest unless his bat heats up.

The Twins have historically been very comfortable keeping guys and letting them leave as free agents, although most of that was before the new FA compensation rules. Still, I don't expect them to make any major moves.


I agree, if Willingham or Correia get a draft pick attached they are going nowhere fast.

#11 cmathewson

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 12:51 PM

Suzuki isn't going anywhere -- the Twins clearly don't think Pinto is ready to be a full-time MLB catcher (if he ever will be). And I think Correia is staying too -- his value is always pretty low and there's already another open rotation spot for AAA starter auditions (currently occupied by Pino).

I think Willingham and Morales are about it for realistic trade candidates, and even then, they seem to value Hammer pretty highly, and Morales might not generate much interest unless his bat heats up.

The Twins have historically been very comfortable keeping guys and letting them leave as free agents, although most of that was before the new FA compensation rules. Still, I don't expect them to make any major moves.


I could see keeping Morales and offering him a qualifying offer. Doubt he'd turn it down this time.
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#12 jaimedude2

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 01:06 PM

I see Suzuki, Correia (if he keeps pitching well and keeps the ERA in a little better check), and Morales(only if he ups his average and on base percentage) being in the most demand at the trade deadline. All guys with expiring contracts and rental type players that teams will seem to want. Suzuki seems to be the only guy that anyone would want off this current Twins team in the most likely trade scenarios he is likely the only good trade chip the Twins have.

Morales keeps his average low though and nobody is going to want him. Correia has pitched better of late and has been a victim of the Twins non-existent offense his last 2-3 starts. I see Willingham as having little to no trade value at the deadline. He is not hitting like a guy that want's to be a
contender and his bad defense has cost his pitchers lately. This just doesn't seem like a year the Twins will be able to get much if anything of value out of Willingham. Kind of like Liriano they waited to long to play that hand and move him and now he will bring not much back.
People may have interest in Brian Duensing or Casey Fien type relievers problem is middle relief pitchers generally do not bring much back in the way of prospects.

#13 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 01:10 PM

I could see keeping Morales and offering him a qualifying offer. Doubt he'd turn it down this time.


They can't. He would have had to have been on the roster day 1 for this to happen.

#14 stringer bell

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 01:25 PM

I agree, if Willingham or Correia get a draft pick attached they are going nowhere fast.

??????

#15 Willihammer

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 01:37 PM

I think the Twins are in a strong position with Hammer. If he stays healthy, he's a QO candidate and I for one would hope he accepts. He is by far the most productive outfielder in the system, and maybe the most productive batter period.

If they can get a haul in trade, great. A comp round pick would be a good outcome too. So they should be very picky about what sort of offers they are willing to entertain IMO.

#16 jorgenswest

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 02:37 PM

A qualifying offer will be around 15 million. The Twins don't have anyone on an expiring contract that will get near that salary for 2015. They won't be making qualifying offers.

#17 TheLeviathan

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 02:45 PM

I think the Twins are in a strong position with Hammer. If he stays healthy, he's a QO candidate and I for one would hope he accepts. He is by far the most productive outfielder in the system, and maybe the most productive batter period.

If they can get a haul in trade, great. A comp round pick would be a good outcome too. So they should be very picky about what sort of offers they are willing to entertain IMO.


You want to pay Josh Willingham at 36 years old 15M?

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#18 Brandon

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 03:03 PM

I can see the Twins trading Corriea and 1 or 2 of the bullpen arms. I don't see them doing much else. I see them resigning Willingham in the offseason and if Morales hits I can see the Twins trying to resign him too. Next year we have Sano, Buxton, maybe Rosario and maybe Vargas who is in AA this year tearing it up. that means we have the following lineup.

2b Dozier
1B Mauer
DH Morales
LF Willingham
3B Sano
RF Arcia
C Suzuki
SS Escobar/ Santana
CF Buxton

Santana starts the year in CF and moves out when Buxton arrives. I put Buxton batting 9th cause he is a rookie. But doesn't this look like a nice lineup...... also impressive is the hitters on the bench too (as bench bats and not starting all the time except for Plouffe and Pinto).
Plouffe, Parmelee, Colabello, Pinto,

and that bench would make it easier to handle an injury.

Edited by Brandon, 03 July 2014 - 03:43 PM.


#19 Willihammer

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 03:23 PM

You want to pay Josh Willingham at 36 years old 15M?

[ATTACH=CONFIG]8096[/ATTACH]


Nelson Cruz 2013: .833 OPS, 2.2 WAR
Kendrys Morales 2013: .785 OPS, 2.8 WAR
Carlos Beltran 2013: .830 OPS, 2.4 WAR
Hammer 2014: .841 OPS, 1.0 WAR

At this rate, it would be a mistake not to offer Hammer a QO

#20 Brandon

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 03:45 PM

Nelson Cruz 2013: .833 OPS, 2.2 WAR
Kendrys Morales 2013: .785 OPS, 2.8 WAR
Carlos Beltran 2013: .830 OPS, 2.4 WAR
Hammer 2014: .841 OPS, 1.0 WAR

At this rate, it would be a mistake not to offer Hammer a QO


I would think we could get him signed to a 1 or 2 year extension without have to make the QO. If we have to make the QO then we could always resign Cuddyer or Hunter to come back and take his place.