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Article: Twins sign Ynoa for $800k

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#21 birdwatcher

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 11:12 AM

Normally, I'd agree with you, but in the international market, quality is pretty fungible--the distance for these guys from the major is immense, and rarely do prospects like Sano emerge as such obvious quality investments. Given the higher risk, it does make more sense to spread out that risk over many players rather than a few.


Another fact about quality and quantity: there are 30 teams, so by definition there will be teams that don't sign a "Top 25" guy. The Twins have signed one or more such high-ceiling prospect in each of the past several years, so no one can legitimately complain that they don't get their share of "quality". The record clearly shows that they get both quality AND quantity. You might put Arcia and Santana in the "quantity" category, and Polanco and Thorpe in the "quality" category, for example.

Nice to see the Twins continue to be aggressive in the international market. They're getting terrific results.

#22 Seth Stohs

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 11:13 AM

I remain skeptical of the approach of having a lot of money, and buying quantity over quality, I guess we will know more in a few years. I have not paid attention to the international stuff this year at all, under the premise they would be praying on the top ranked guys again. Good luck to them and their new players. I hope it works.


Generally I agree with quality over quantity. Last night we talked on the Hangouts about that very topic. For me, in the international signing phase, I think I'd prefer quantity of decent prospects over the top guys in many cases. I say that while being thrilled that the Twins signed Miguel Sano, of course, but he was a clear exception.

When guys are signing at 16 and likely have arrangements when they're 14-15, it's just such a crap shoot. I think I'd rather go with 8 guys at $400,000 than 1 guy at $3.2 million... most of the time.

Then again, it's not like I know any of these guys or have even seen them play... and how good they'll be at 18-22 is impossible to know with any level of certainty when they are 15-16.

#23 amjgt

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 11:18 AM

I would imagine Clayton Kershaw would be very inconsistent too, if he was growing 1-2" per year, coursing with frame-filling testosterone, and worried about asking girls to go steady.

#24 birdwatcher

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 11:37 AM

Generally I agree with quality over quantity. Last night we talked on the Hangouts about that very topic. For me, in the international signing phase, I think I'd prefer quantity of decent prospects over the top guys in many cases. I say that while being thrilled that the Twins signed Miguel Sano, of course, but he was a clear exception.

When guys are signing at 16 and likely have arrangements when they're 14-15, it's just such a crap shoot. I think I'd rather go with 8 guys at $400,000 than 1 guy at $3.2 million... most of the time.

Then again, it's not like I know any of these guys or have even seen them play... and how good they'll be at 18-22 is impossible to know with any level of certainty when they are 15-16.


This makes total sense to me. And yet I think we should take a bit of solace from the fact that they're taking some bigger financial risks too. Sano is our poster boy, but last year Diaz Lewin was ranked #10, the year before Amaurys Minier was #7 on some lists and Argenis Silva #22, then add Thorpe as the highest-ranked Aussie pitcher, Barrie this year as the highest ranked Aussie hitter, and both were half-mil investments. Kepler at $800, Polanco at $700, so again, this feels like a nice balance between taking some serious risks to hit the jackpot and spreading some dollars out to improve the odds.

#25 mike wants wins

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 11:41 AM

Btw, from what little reading I have done this year, I do like this signing. As for success with the approach, imo, it is too early to tell. Most of these guys are not even in A ball. .....for all the teams in baseball.

#26 ashburyjohn

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 11:55 AM

If the ceiling is high and the consistency at age 16 is the main knock on him, this signing gets +1 from me.

#27 birdwatcher

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 12:51 PM

Btw, from what little reading I have done this year, I do like this signing. As for success with the approach, imo, it is too early to tell. Most of these guys are not even in A ball. .....for all the teams in baseball.


How would you describe their approach?

#28 nicksaviking

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 01:04 PM

Another fact about quality and quantity: there are 30 teams, so by definition there will be teams that don't sign a "Top 25" guy. The Twins have signed one or more such high-ceiling prospect in each of the past several years, so no one can legitimately complain that they don't get their share of "quality". The record clearly shows that they get both quality AND quantity. You might put Arcia and Santana in the "quantity" category, and Polanco and Thorpe in the "quality" category, for example.

Nice to see the Twins continue to be aggressive in the international market. They're getting terrific results.


While I'm glad the Twins haven't been totally cheap about the process and I'm very excited about Ynoa, the bonus pools are set up for the teams with the poor records the year prior to spend the most. With that in mind, the intention of the process is for the Twins to be getting a top 5 guy each of the past three years not a top 25 guy.

I'm not critiquing them, but they are hardly being agressive about their international targets. We already know that the Yankees, Rays, Brewers and Blue Jays are blowing past their bonus limits and the Red Sox certainly look like they will as well. Likely plenty of other teams will be doing the same. This should open the game up for the Twins to do the same next year while these teams cannont sign the big targets. If the Twins don't blow past their slot bonus next year, we probably shouldn't be as content only signing the #14 ranked prospect.

Edited by nicksaviking, 02 July 2014 - 01:09 PM.


#29 mike wants wins

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 01:31 PM

How would you describe their approach?


Throw lots of spaghetti on the wall and see what sticks vs. sign the more likely to succeed (assuming the rankings have any validity). Stay in the pool vs go over pool. Sign more less expensive guys that are lower ranked vs sign a few high ranked guys.

Like I said above, I am skeptical about their approach, but I don't think there is enough data to know if it will work or not. Sano would NOT be signed under this current approach, for example, since he was THE guy that year.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#30 TwinsFanInPhilly

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 01:42 PM

Twins sign OF Jean Carlos Arias - $450,000

http://dplbaseball.c...-arias-of-2014/

#31 cmb0252

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 01:45 PM

Darren Wolfson retweeted that the Twins signed Dalin Cuesto-C. No bonus included.

#32 nicksaviking

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 01:52 PM

Well I certainly like that the Twins aren't screwing around biding their time waiting to see what's left over. They had 12 months to evaluate these guys, I'm glad they're getting right to business. I like the initiative.

#33 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 02:14 PM

Throw lots of spaghetti on the wall and see what sticks vs. sign the more likely to succeed (assuming the rankings have any validity). Stay in the pool vs go over pool. Sign more less expensive guys that are lower ranked vs sign a few high ranked guys.


That's not really fair. The Twins have signed at least one top 30 guy several years in a row. No, they haven't signed a Sano-type player during that time but they're not out there signing 30 $100,000 or under guys every year.

#34 twinsfan34

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 02:19 PM

The Twins got their 2nd major signing....$450K.

Jean Carlos Arias, OF, L/L, 5'10'' 150.

http://www.baseballa...n-carlos-arias/

#35 mike wants wins

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 02:25 PM

They have been in the top five in pool every year, and have not once signed a top five guy. Signing top 30 guys is not being aggressive, imo. You can feel differently Brock. We will not agree.

#36 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 02:33 PM

They've also signed a Dominican C Dalin Cuesto. Cuesto will sign 17 in October. 5-11, 165. No bonus known.

Arias turned 16 in January.

EDIT: Didn't read through the whole thread, so this is a repeat.

#37 SD Buhr

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 02:41 PM

While I'm glad the Twins haven't been totally cheap about the process and I'm very excited about Ynoa, the bonus pools are set up for the teams with the poor records the year prior to spend the most. With that in mind, the intention of the process is for the Twins to be getting a top 5 guy each of the past three years not a top 25 guy.


To you, that may be, "the intention of the process," because that's how you would choose to approach using your money.

However, to me, "the intention of the process," is to assure that teams with losing records have the most allotted resources to use as they see fit to use in the marketplace.

If the Twins look at the international market and feel that judging the potential of 15 year olds to eventually become competent MLB ballplayers is pretty much a crapshoot and, as a result, the best approach is to use their money to add a higher number of "good" players, rather than a small number of "top" prospects (with "good" and "top" being determined by a bunch of writers at BA and MLB.com), I don't think it means they are necessarily not using their money as the process intended.

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#38 mike wants wins

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 02:51 PM

I agree with you, SD Buhr, it is up to the teams to follow their own strategy.

#39 drock2190

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 03:45 PM

You win some you lose some. I was happy when they signed bigger names like Sano, Polanco and Kepler in the past years. Even though Kepler looks like he has a tough road ahead of him to make the majors, the other two look promising.

Imagine if the Twins signed Gregory Polanco a few years back! Twins were reported to have come in 2nd to the Pirates in the bidding. But then the Twins did get lucky when Sano picked them over the Pirates.

Still a fan can dream...

#40 Roaddog

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 04:12 PM

While it would be nice to get a Top 5 guy once in awhile, i don't mind the Twins strategy either. Not counting Sano, we have signed guys like Kepler(who i still like)Polanco, Thorpe, Diaz. I don't know if the signings are more publicized now, but you can't argue that they have made an effort to bring in talent.