In comparing the game logs of 5 relievers based on games pitched (GP), games with runs scored against (GRSA), games with multiple runs scored against (GMRSA), and scoreless games pitched (SGP). Here's how they stacked up.
Burton GP 32 GRSA 10 GMRSA 5 SGP 22
Fien GP 34 GRSA 7 GMRSA 2 SGP 27 (most effective reliever)
Perkins GP 32 GRSA 9 GMRSA 5 SGP 23
Deunsing GP 28 GRSA 4 GMRSA 3 SGP 24 (most likely to pitch a scoreless game)
Thielbar GP 28 GRSA 8 GMRSA 1 SGA 19 (most likely to not give up 2 or more runs)
This view does not take into account inherited runs stranded or scored just what is attributed to them. but from the looks of things Burton has been almost as effective as Perkins in terms of scoreless games and games in which they gave up 1 run or multiple runs. So I wonder if this view gets looked at by the Twins Jack Goin when they look at bullpen effectiveness or some version of it. I think this does a better job of showing how effective a reliever is when the numbers appear off, like having a 6 ERA. It all comes down to a few bad innings for Burton and yes he is regressing some but not to the extent we at Twins daily believe. I think the other stats can show where the regression comes from (walks are up and so is HR per 9 innings). Burtons hits given up per 9 innings is almost in line with career norms 29 hits in 30 innings. So the question is why is Burtons control off so much this year? Burton has also given up 9 walks in his first 15 innings and 6 in his last 20 innings which is less than 3 per 9 innings his last 20 innings. Also he has given up 5 Homeruns this season with 3 coming in his first 5 innings. His first 10 innings he gave up 9 earned runs and 10 in his last 20 innings. a 4.50 era isn't great but passable. In his last 20 innings he has given up 18 hits 2 HR 6 walks 16 K's That's a 1.2 WHIP and 7.2 k per 9 innings and 2.7 bb per 9 and 2.6 ks per bb. Those are solid numbers. So it stands to reason that Burton just had a bad start to the season and has turned a corner and will likely to produce from here on out. Maybe not as an elite reliever but as a solid middleman.
Edited by Brandon, 22 June 2014 - 10:22 AM.