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Twins' Trade Bait and Why the Twins Should Sell

josmil pinto kendrys morales kurt suzuki minnesota twins phil hughes
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152 replies to this topic

#141 WLFINN

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 08:15 AM

Suzuki is a better catcher today. In terms of framing and throwing he has been below average for years. That isn't going to change.

Pinto did better last September in his call up when he was getting more consistent play and the numbers weren't anchored down with the bias of catching primarily Deduno.

In any case, Suzuki isn't a good solution for 2015. We need to know if Pinto can be a solution. Assuming the a Twins are not within a few games of the wild card, he needs to catch 6 games a week starting August 1.



If Klutchuki can continue anywhere near the numbers he is having and the pitchers have no gripes working with him I have no problem at all with him being a solution for 2015. If Pinto can force the Twins hand to get him back up to the Majors that will be a good problem.

#142 cmathewson

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 08:23 AM

I think we should trade all the veterans for Low A prospects. Not.
"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

#143 jorgenswest

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 08:40 AM

Suzuki's performance this year is the definition of sell high.

He is out performing all of his recent seasons. He plays a position where decline comes earlier. He is 30 years old. His contract is up at the end of the year.

The Twins have some options.

They can sell high.
They can buy high.
They can let his contract run out.

I am certain Suzuki would listen to an extension offer. If I were him, I would be looking for three years. This will be his last good contract. He is not going to sign a team friendly one year deal in season. Like we saw with extensions given to Burton and Doumit, players often don't age well into their thirties. It is even more likely for Suzuki given his outlier season and workload at catcher. Sign him to a multiyear deal and they could be watching him hit .220 with league bottom defense for the next three years.

Assuming the Twins don't go on a Royal like streak in the next month, I am selling high and taking the best offer. I will look for another one year option in the winter to mix with Pinto.

#144 TheLeviathan

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 08:43 AM

Suzuki's performance this year is the definition of sell high.


I would totally agree. They should at least entertain what people are willing to give for him.

One thing working in favor of retaining/extending him is that the available catching options next season are very slim. Given Pinto's defensive deficiencies that could be a factor we can't ignore. (Although, on the flip side of that, keeping Suzuki around only inspires our manager to play him instead of Pinto)

#145 Doug Y

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 10:18 AM

Correia and Willingham are trade-able. It would be crazy to trade Hughes, Morales and Suzuki.


I agree. I don't like trading away good pitching if you don't have to. Morales will have some trade value, but if you pick him up in June and trade him in July, do you run the risk of scaring away other free agents who may think we just picked them up as trade bait.

#146 Beezer07

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 10:34 AM

The only way Suzuki is the definition of "sell high" is if the Twins can trick someone into thinking that what he's doing isn't a total outlier. Easier to sell high on a young guy than a savvy veteran.

#147 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 10:40 AM

The only way Suzuki is the definition of "sell high" is if the Twins can trick someone into thinking that what he's doing isn't a total outlier.


Therein lies the rub. The notion of "selling high" is a flawed concept much of the time, particularly when it's bandied about on internet forums.

If you, as a fan, can recognize the potential lapse of a player, don't you think professional MLB GMs can do the same?

That doesn't mean you can't get peak value out of a guy but it does mean that GMs are going to lowball their offers to mitigate the risk of player collapse.

#148 jorgenswest

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 10:56 AM

Sell high is a term relative to each player. Suzuki has raised the bar on his value with his performance this year. The Twins have an opportunity to sell and that return will likely have more value than he 2.75 million they committed last winter.

If "sell high" is not the right term, I struggle to find something better.

#149 jokin

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 11:00 AM

Sell high is a term relative to each player. Suzuki has raised the bar on his value with his performance this year. The Twins have an opportunity to sell and that return will likely have more value than he 2.75 million they committed last winter.

If "sell high" is not the right term, I struggle to find something better.


Excellent analysis, his outstanding performance this season will pique lots more interest in Suzuki as a rental player than would have been the case at this time last year in the identical contract situation.

#150 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 11:26 AM

Sell high is a term relative to each player. Suzuki has raised the bar on his value with his performance this year. The Twins have an opportunity to sell and that return will likely have more value than he 2.75 million they committed last winter.

If "sell high" is not the right term, I struggle to find something better.


In my opinion, expiring contracts don't really apply. There is virtually no risk on an expiring contract whether the player is high or low. The player simply goes away at the end of the season.

My comments were more directed at the concept of "selling high or low" on players with considerable time left on their contracts. I should have been more clear in my post.

I don't think a team is going to do an extensive risk analysis on the $75 owed Suzuki for the rest of 2014 or how his career trajectory has looked over the past 3-4 years. They care about how he's playing right now and little else. The Twins are probably the only team that really cares about whether Suzuki is playing over his head right now, as they're the ones most likely to retain his services for 2015.

#151 Twins Twerp

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 11:49 AM

I know it has been said over and over by our more logical thinking members, but this sell high argument is ridiculous. We act like GMs are blinded by hot months. 2 years ago Josh Willingham had a pretty good year, but no team was going to offer a top 5 team prospect for him. And i also hate how people call out the front office for not trading him when he had value. We have no idea what would have been offered for him, yet some td members were calling for him to be traded for prospects. No one is arguing that some twins trades in the 2000s worked out poorly, but to get angry about trades that didnt happen is ridiculous.

Phil Hughes is going nowhere. When I first read these post i laughed so hard I soiled myself. We finally have an ace type pitcher for WAY under market valu...and we want to trade him so we can compete in 2025.

How bad would it look to prospective free agents if we sign the, to multi year contracts, then sell them 3 months or a year later. That isnt how the twins do business and isnt how anyone should do business. The cubs have been doing this the last three years and I think it is a bad, dirty, and counter productive way to do business.

In closing (had a td vacation because of smartass posts and too many violations), lets let the season play out a bit before selling people off. I would rather extend Suzuki for next year with a team option for 2016. Wait until the trade deadline and then get what you can from KC and Morales and Willingham. No one else will have any valu. Of course I think the team will be competing at end of July so the whole post is mute...Go Twins.

#152 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 12:26 PM

Don't get me wrong, I'd like to keep Hughes, but considering what he can fetch as trade bait, he's the best bait we got. I'd hate to see him regress or get hurt and get nothing for a great signing that paid off for a team that misses the playoffs...especially with three starters in Rochester who deserve a shot.

Hultzen will be a stud lefty in 1 year. I'd trade Hughes for him straight up.

#153 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 01:10 PM

The real question on trading is this... Is the team in it or not? If it's in it, then everyone but KC stays. Interesting thing about the trade deadlines. Bad teams don't have much to give, and so they don't usually get much... A pretender that realizes they are a pretender could bring in a nice return. I still think the Twins are more of a pretender this season than a contender, but if they want to go for it, I'd say find a stop gap CF, trade KC and give it a shot. I'm not going to complain either way.

Edit: event as a pretender, no way I trade Hughes. I think he's legit and can help the next wave as they come up.



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