Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

From MinnCentric


Photo

Twins' Trade Bait and Why the Twins Should Sell

josmil pinto kendrys morales kurt suzuki minnesota twins phil hughes
  • Please log in to reply
152 replies to this topic

#41 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 5,524 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 06:03 AM

This did not require hindsight. I know I was one of a few back in 2012 BEGGING the Twins to sell high on him at the deadline. The guy was mashing in July, he screamed "I'm only going to get hurt a lot in the future", and his odds of matching that production were slim.

People, mistakenly, convinced themselves an injury prone guy with a softball player's body was going to somehow become more productive and durable into his mid-30s and be more valuable in the final year of his contract. (The argument was that an additional 2 years and 14M was somehow destroying his trade value in 2012)

Some of us were railing against that aggressively back in 2012 and, yes, clamoring for us to move him. No 20-20 hindsight required on that one - every argument made by the advocates in 2012 of dealing Willingham came true because none of it should be all that shocking if you look at his career.


I'm fairly certain that quite a few people wanted to trade him 2012. The issue at hand was what another GM would have given for an oft-injured aging slugger with 2 1/2 years left on his deal. I'm guessing not much, as most GMs knew there would be a large risk of having 2013 Willingham happen to them. If he keeps mashing, you may get a decent prospect at the deadline. I'm not sure that would have been the case in 2012.

#42 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 6,347 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 06:10 AM

I'm fairly certain that quite a few people wanted to trade him 2012. The issue at hand was what another GM would have given for an oft-injured aging slugger with 2 1/2 years left on his deal. I'm guessing not much, as most GMs knew there would be a large risk of having 2013 Willingham happen to them. If he keeps mashing, you may get a decent prospect at the deadline. I'm not sure that would have been the case in 2012.


That was part of the debate at the time and none of us can know what was on the table. But I'm 100% sure now of what I was reasonably sure of back in 2012 - never was Hammer's value higher than in July of 2012.

#43 SpiritofVodkaDave

SpiritofVodkaDave

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,347 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 06:32 AM

Wasn't it said at the time in 2012 that he still only would have fetched a C level prospect?

#44 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 6,347 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 06:46 AM

[quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave']Wasn't it said at the time in 2012 that he still only would have fetched a C level prospect?[/QUOTE]

That was what posters/fans speculated. The Twins, so far as I know, never even entertained the idea. Here's one tweet from the time:

[QUOTE]#Twins[FONT=Georgia] have yet to put Josh Willingham on trade market, source says. He is in high demand, esp. after Carlos Quentin extension. [/FONT]@MLBONFOX[/QUOTE]

This was from Jayson Stark at the time:
[QUOTE]

  • The Twins' asking prices for Morneau ("pricey"), Denard Span ("more pricey"), andJosh Willingham ("it made me laugh") are high. Minnesota insists they will listen on anyone and Stark says Morneau is the bat they're most likely to move. Francisco Liriano is "nearly 100 percent" likely to be traded.
[/QUOTE]

Edited by TheLeviathan, 19 June 2014 - 06:48 AM.


#45 Marta Shearing

Marta Shearing

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 417 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 07:09 AM

They missed a chance to trade Dozier at peak value. I like his defense and power numbers, but too many 0-4's. Too many strikeouts with RISP. In hindsight, I'd have traded him when he was going good.

#46 tobi0040

tobi0040

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,041 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 07:15 AM

Don't get me wrong, I'd like to keep Hughes, but considering what he can fetch as trade bait, he's the best bait we got. I'd hate to see him regress or get hurt and get nothing for a great signing that paid off for a team that misses the playoffs...especially with three starters in Rochester who deserve a shot.


Hughes has always been, from ages 20-27 a #2 or #3 starter if you take out his innings in the new yankee stadium (4.11 ERA). We have him under contract for another 2.5 years and given the fact that he sought out the Twins because of the ballpark and he is now seeing sucess, I have some hope if he is still pitching well next year that he would be interested in an extension. Young, cheap, very good, confident now. Keep the guy.

I agree about the other guys, but not Hughes. He is part of the solution here.

#47 tobi0040

tobi0040

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,041 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 07:20 AM

This did not require hindsight. I know I was one of a few back in 2012 BEGGING the Twins to sell high on him at the deadline. The guy was mashing in July, he screamed "I'm only going to get hurt a lot in the future", and his odds of matching that production were slim.

People, mistakenly, convinced themselves an injury prone guy with a softball player's body was going to somehow become more productive and durable into his mid-30s and be more valuable in the final year of his contract. (The argument was that an additional 2 years and 14M was somehow destroying his trade value in 2012)

Some of us were railing against that aggressively back in 2012 and, yes, clamoring for us to move him. No 20-20 hindsight required on that one - every argument made by the advocates in 2012 of dealing Willingham came true because none of it should be all that shocking if you look at his career.


I did hear from a Twins insider back in 2012 the Twins had some concern about moving Josh 3 months into a 3 year contract. The risk being future free agents would not sign here because they don't sign 3-5 year deals hoping to be traded in 3 months and move on to another city. I do get it.

If you remember the backlash the Marlins received after moving Mark B. and Jose Reyes, both were pretty ticked off.

#48 tobi0040

tobi0040

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,041 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 07:28 AM

They missed a chance to trade Dozier at peak value. I like his defense and power numbers, but too many 0-4's. Too many strikeouts with RISP. In hindsight, I'd have traded him when he was going good.


I also would like to keep Dozier. Even if he is a .250 hitter. This franchise has struggled to field a good 2B for a very long time. If he is a .250 hitter, 20-25 HR a year, great defense, probably only going to cost $30-$40M over 4-5 years, I think he is part of a solution as well.

#49 Steve_h

Steve_h

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 20 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 07:39 AM

It's bad business to trade Hughes just three months into a three-year deal. Same thing on Morales just two weeks after signing him. If you want your team to be a destination for sought-after free agents, you cannot do that kind of thing. It's different for Willingham, whose deal is just about up after two-and-a-half years here and for Suzuki, whose stay is likely short anyway. Moving Hughes would be inexcusable in the world of agents.

#50 tobi0040

tobi0040

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,041 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 07:41 AM

It's bad business to trade Hughes just three months into a three-year deal. Same thing on Morales just two weeks after signing him. If you want your team to be a destination for sought-after free agents, you cannot do that kind of thing. It's different for Willingham, whose deal is just about up after two-and-a-half years here and for Suzuki, whose stay is likely short anyway. Moving Hughes would be inexcusable in the world of agents.


Especially given that Hughes sought our team and our field in an effort to rejuvenate his career. I think you end up having to give every player a no trade clause if you go down this route once or twice, some agents may not return your calls out of spite.

#51 Major Leauge Ready

Major Leauge Ready

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 529 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:07 AM

I did hear from a Twins insider back in 2012 the Twins had some concern about moving Josh 3 months into a 3 year contract. The risk being future free agents would not sign here because they don't sign 3-5 year deals hoping to be traded in 3 months and move on to another city. I do get it.

If you remember the backlash the Marlins received after moving Mark B. and Jose Reyes, both were pretty ticked off.


I recall that "flipping" a free agent in this way was a concern and I have to agree. That tactic has a price long-term. For this and other reasons, now is not the time to trade Hughes.

I could see trading Dozier if the price and timing is right. I am not sure the timing is right just yet but could be if Rosario gets some ML playing time and proves he is capable of taking over at 2B. We have some other 2B options on the horizon as well.

What they really need to do is make room for AAA pitchers who deserve a shot at the ML level. Correia has looked pretty good his last couple of starts. Let's hope he remains hot and brings back a decent prospect in July. Trade Burton for a six-pack of Gatorade.

What about Plouffe? I think I would let him go if the price was right. Escobar is looking like a much better defender and maybe you give Romero a shot too. His OBP is 404. He might be an adequate place holder until Sano arrives.

#52 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,752 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:12 AM

That was what posters/fans speculated. The Twins, so far as I know, never even entertained the idea. Here's one tweet from the time:



This was from Jayson Stark at the time:

I think it was a guy on fangraphs, but maybe it was Klaw, but anyhow, someone suggested that the Twins would get, at best, a #4 type pitching prospect for Hammer at the time and named Sean Gilmartin of Atlanta as a possibility.

#53 SpiritofVodkaDave

SpiritofVodkaDave

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,347 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:15 AM

This was from Jayson Stark at the time:

The asking price should have been high, you just don't trade a 30 HR guy for beans. Also I am glad the Span asking was "more pricey", give me that Meyer trade 7 days out of 7.

I know opinions on TR differ amongst folks, but the one thing I believe we can mostly agree on is he knows how to get solid value in trades.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald

:whacky028::whacky028: :whacky028::whacky028:

#54 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,752 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:16 AM

Coming into this season, I thought the most important things, even over record, was the development of Gibson, Arcia, Hicks, Pinto, Meyer, May, Dozier, Buxton, Sano and seeing how Hughes and Nolasco looked as future pieces. I also hoped a few other prospects stepped up. I figured anyone else that wasn't part of the 2016 future (Hammer, Correa, Pelfrey, Suzuki) or could be over valued and replaceable (Perkins) should be moved.

I wouldn't shop him but if someone wants to overpay on Dozier, take it.

#55 SpiritofVodkaDave

SpiritofVodkaDave

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,347 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:16 AM

I think it was a guy on fangraphs, but maybe it was Klaw, but anyhow, someone suggested that the Twins would get, at best, a #4 type pitching prospect for Hammer at the time and named Sean Gilmartin of Atlanta as a possibility.

I remember it being posted on MLBTraderumors
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald

:whacky028::whacky028: :whacky028::whacky028:

#56 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 8,654 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:16 AM

I think it was a guy on fangraphs, but maybe it was Klaw, but anyhow, someone suggested that the Twins would get, at best, a #4 type pitching prospect for Hammer at the time and named Sean Gilmartin of Atlanta as a possibility.


That was before Gilmartin lost most of his luster- he bombed at AAA to close out 2012.

#57 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 6,347 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:20 AM

The asking price should have been high, you just don't trade a 30 HR guy for beans. Also I am glad the Span asking was "more pricey", give me that Meyer trade 7 days out of 7.

I know opinions on TR differ amongst folks, but the one thing I believe we can mostly agree on is he knows how to get solid value in trades.


If the price you tell people has them hanging up laughing....that's not a good idea. High expectations are fine. Ridiculous expectations?

Well that's ridiculous.

#58 tobi0040

tobi0040

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,041 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:20 AM

What about Plouffe? I think I would let him go if the price was right..


That is how I feel about Plouffe as well. Be the guy that puts a for sale sign on the car and drive it around town, but who likes his car and does not actually want to sell it. Given some of the 3B out there, it would seem Plouffe would have value. But he can be an average to above average 3B if Sano doesn't pan out. He can back up 1B, LF, RF, and DH and he crushes lefties. So he could be a valuable piece.

#59 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,752 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:24 AM

That is how I feel about Plouffe as well. Be the guy that puts a for sale sign on the car and drive it around town, but who likes his car and does not actually want to sell it. Given some of the 3B out there, it would seem Plouffe would have value. But he can be an average to above average 3B if Sano doesn't pan out. He can back up 1B, LF, RF, and DH and he crushes lefties. So he could be a valuable piece.

He's on the DL. He's probably more likely to be moved next year when he's healthy and the Twins have a better idea of their future.

#60 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 6,347 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:28 AM

I think it was a guy on fangraphs, but maybe it was Klaw, but anyhow, someone suggested that the Twins would get, at best, a #4 type pitching prospect for Hammer at the time and named Sean Gilmartin of Atlanta as a possibility.


Sorry, but I'm going to have to see something to back that up. Every report from MLB trade rumors and things I can find in searches says the Twins were putting such high demands on trade returns that they basically made him untouchable.



Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: josmil pinto, kendrys morales, kurt suzuki, minnesota twins, phil hughes