Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

The Store

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Recent Blogs

From MinnCentric


Photo

Any Roster News

  • Please log in to reply
49 replies to this topic

#1 ScottyB

ScottyB

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 629 posts

Posted 18 June 2014 - 04:23 PM

Have the Twins announced who is coming off the 25-man to make room for Pino? Also I assume Pelfrey to the 60-day DL. Or will they wait because it looks to be raining all day tomorrow?

Edited by ScottyB, 18 June 2014 - 04:31 PM.


#2 SydneyTwinsFan

SydneyTwinsFan

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 154 posts
  • LocationSydney, Australia

Posted 18 June 2014 - 05:04 PM

Haven't heard. My guess would be optioning Thielbar

#3 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 7,903 posts

Posted 18 June 2014 - 06:18 PM

Haven't heard. My guess would be optioning Thielbar


I have been in favor of that option, I hope they consider it strongly.

But ScottyB is right, the Twins can use tomorrow's expected all-day forecast of inclement weather to keep their options wide open all the way up until it's determined if they cancel the game or not.....and they have announced that they wouldn't make a decision until some time tomorrow.

#4 Paul Pleiss

Paul Pleiss

    Y'arrrgh matey!

  • Members
  • 727 posts

Posted 18 June 2014 - 06:25 PM

I would have responded to this question earlier but I've been in a deep trance chanting "designate Jarod Burton for assignment" over and over and over.

#5 Brandon

Brandon

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,030 posts

Posted 18 June 2014 - 06:34 PM

I think they are waiting to see if they need to DL someone, or if they are trying to pass someone through waivers they may not want to announce it right away, or they may be trying to decide who to send down, a pitcher or bench player.

Burton isn't going anywhere as he has ups and downs but has a low to mid 4 era if you take out his 7 runs allowed total in back to back outings in early April. That happened right out of the gate so excusing that he has been decent for most of the season and seems to be back on track again as he has gotten us out of some tight jams this week.

#6 Buck Nasty

Buck Nasty

    Member

  • Members
  • 63 posts

Posted 18 June 2014 - 06:39 PM

Why do people think Thielbar would be the guy? He's left handed. He's only 27 and has been very good for them. His career totals: 5-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.89 WHIP. If that gets a guy demoted then there's something wrong with the guys running this organization.

#7 Paul Pleiss

Paul Pleiss

    Y'arrrgh matey!

  • Members
  • 727 posts

Posted 18 June 2014 - 06:40 PM

JAROD BURTON DOESN'T HAVE A LOW TO MID 4 ERA. YOU CAN'T JUST TAKE OUT BAD OUTINGS AND KEEP THE GOOD ONES.

I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE cherry picking stats. Jarod Burton is donezo.

Jardon Burton has gotten the Twins INTO more jams that out of them. Stop giving the guy so much credit. There are other guys in the bullpen and down in Rochester who can and should be allowed to pitch instead of Burton.

#8 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Yes

  • Members
  • 4,548 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 18 June 2014 - 07:29 PM

Why do people think Thielbar would be the guy? He's left handed. He's only 27 and has been very good for them. His career totals: 5-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.89 WHIP. If that gets a guy demoted then there's something wrong with the guys running this organization.


Yeah.

Also .199 BABIP and 4.13 xFIP and a fastball that barely touches 90.

In other words, a disaster ready to happen yesterday. If anyone, ever, anyhow, picked the phone up and offered anything resembling a prospect for Thielbar, the Twins' brass will be nuts to pass. On the other hand...
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#9 Buck Nasty

Buck Nasty

    Member

  • Members
  • 63 posts

Posted 18 June 2014 - 07:54 PM

Yeah.

Also .199 BABIP and 4.13 xFIP and a fastball that barely touches 90.

In other words, a disaster ready to happen yesterday. If anyone, ever, anyhow, picked the phone up and offered anything resembling a prospect for Thielbar, the Twins' brass will be nuts to pass. On the other hand...


I think people get themselves in trouble when they try to over analyze. The guy has been getting people out for two years now. This isn't a week or a month hot streak. Teams don't get rid of guys because their BABIP is too low. They get rid of guys that are not performing i.e. giving up runs.

#10 Sconnie

Sconnie

    King of his Castle

  • Members
  • 1,442 posts
  • LocationNW Wisconsin

Posted 18 June 2014 - 08:26 PM

I think people get themselves in trouble when they try to over analyze. The guy has been getting people out for two years now. This isn't a week or a month hot streak. Teams don't get rid of guys because their BABIP is too low. They get rid of guys that are not performing i.e. giving up runs.

Ehhhh, I'd tread carefully. Thrylos knows his/hers stuff. Do I know Thrylos well enough to know gender? No. Do I know well enough to trust statistical analysis? Yes.

besides, you're using conventional wisdom for starters on a releiver. His xFIP suggests his BABIP will regress to the mean and his ERA will balloon. It's not a week or month hot streak, true, but he has a total of 76 appearances in the bigs. Far too small to trust over math.

#11 TKGuy

TKGuy

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 316 posts

Posted 18 June 2014 - 09:07 PM

I also think Thielbar will be optioned

#12 ashburyjohn

ashburyjohn

    Twins Daily Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 5,834 posts
  • LocationLake Tahoe, Nevada

Posted 18 June 2014 - 09:53 PM

Teams don't get rid of guys because their BABIP is too low.


Oakland, Tampa Bay, and maybe one or two others might. We should trade with them and steal away all their low-BABIP guys - it might be the newest market inefficiency. :)

#13 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 7,903 posts

Posted 18 June 2014 - 10:50 PM

Why do people think Thielbar would be the guy? He's left handed. He's only 27 and has been very good for them. His career totals: 5-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.89 WHIP. If that gets a guy demoted then there's something wrong with the guys running this organization.


You also have to factor in the fact that he still has valuable options available.

#14 howeda7

howeda7

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 434 posts

Posted 18 June 2014 - 11:18 PM

I suspect they'll simply DL Nunez for now and kick the can down the road. Optioning Thielbar is ridiculous. If they won't cut bait with Burton, Swarzak should be it.

#15 Guest_USAFChief_*

Guest_USAFChief_*
  • Guests

Posted 19 June 2014 - 06:15 AM

His xFIP suggests his BABIP will regress to the mean and his ERA will balloon. It's not a week or month hot streak, true, but he has a total of 76 appearances in the bigs. Far too small to trust over math.

Are you sure that's how it works?

#16 cmathewson

cmathewson

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,273 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 06:46 AM

I don't think the Twins give a lick about a guy's velo if he gets people out. Pino is exhibit A. You don't option people based on expected failure. You option them based on current failure. If you look at how Gardy is using Thielbar, there is very little chance he gets optioned right now. He's the closest thing to a lefty specialist the Twins have.

Also, if they option Theilbar, they have to make a second move to open a spot on the 40 man. They could put Pelfrey on the 60-day, but I'm sure they don't want to if they don't have to.

I would look at DFAing either Burton or Guerrier. Either one would kill two turds with one stone, 25 man and 40 man.
"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

#17 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,170 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 07:19 AM

Why do people think Thielbar would be the guy? He's left handed. He's only 27 and has been very good for them. His career totals: 5-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.89 WHIP. If that gets a guy demoted then there's something wrong with the guys running this organization.


100% agree with this!

#18 HansGruber

HansGruber

    Member

  • Members
  • 33 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 07:43 AM

JAROD BURTON DOESN'T HAVE A LOW TO MID 4 ERA. YOU CAN'T JUST TAKE OUT BAD OUTINGS AND KEEP THE GOOD ONES.

I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE cherry picking stats. Jarod Burton is donezo.

Jardon Burton has gotten the Twins INTO more jams that out of them. Stop giving the guy so much credit. There are other guys in the bullpen and down in Rochester who can and should be allowed to pitch instead of Burton.


It's not exactly cherry picking stats it's removing outliers which is what should be done in statistical analysis. That being said, a mid 4 era for a reliever is awful and the conclusion is the same, Burton is done and should be the first to go.

Along those lines, I wasn't happy with the Guerrier call up but now that he's here and performing okay I don't see the need to dump him when there are worse performers like Swarzak and Burton still on the roster. Same for Theilbar.

#19 tobi0040

tobi0040

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,322 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:05 AM

It's not exactly cherry picking stats it's removing outliers which is what should be done in statistical analysis. That being said, a mid 4 era for a reliever is awful and the conclusion is the same, Burton is done and should be the first to go.

Along those lines, I wasn't happy with the Guerrier call up but now that he's here and performing okay I don't see the need to dump him when there are worse performers like Swarzak and Burton still on the roster. Same for Theilbar.


Thielbar has a .531 OPS against lefties, which is pretty amazing. He is also been pretty good against righties (.613 OPS). We have used him 34 IP against lefties and 35 against righties, so I think that reflects that we use him against lefties but we are not afraid against righties (more hitters are right handed).

His FIP this year is about the same as his ERA, last year his FIP of 3.40 was much higher than his 1.75 ERA. BABIP was .175 last year, .239 this year. He certainly had some luck last year and maybe a bit this year. The HR rate has always been low. I would find other people to option or DFA though. To CMAT's point, he is the closest thing we have to a lefty specialist.

#20 zenser

zenser

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 227 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:09 AM

I would look at DFAing either Burton or Guerrier. Either one would kill two turds with one stone, 25 man and 40 man.


Either one would be fine. They are not part of the solution and won't be part of the solution in a couple of years. Theilbar has done nothing wrong to get sent down.

#21 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 7,903 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:13 AM

Either one would be fine. They are not part of the solution and won't be part of the solution in a couple of years. Theilbar has done nothing wrong to get sent down.


Since when has that stopped the Twins from making such a decision?

#22 zenser

zenser

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 227 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:21 AM

Since when has that stopped the Twins from making such a decision?


Good point.

#23 cmathewson

cmathewson

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,273 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:25 AM

It's not exactly cherry picking stats it's removing outliers which is what should be done in statistical analysis. That being said, a mid 4 era for a reliever is awful and the conclusion is the same, Burton is done and should be the first to go.

Along those lines, I wasn't happy with the Guerrier call up but now that he's here and performing okay I don't see the need to dump him when there are worse performers like Swarzak and Burton still on the roster. Same for Theilbar.


It only makes sense to remove outliers in large statistical samples. Relievers rarely if ever compile large enough statistical samples to make this work. Bert talks about relievers' ERA like you really can't count on it because one bad outing can skew it a lot. There is some truth to that. But when you only have a few outings, one bad one is meaningful. In Burton's case, he has had almost as many bad outings as good ones. There were several in a row where he got two outs, walked a couple of guys, and gave up a homer or a bases clearing double or something. He's been a little better of late. But he is definitely showing signs of the league figuring out his change. When that happens. he's D-O-N-E. I think he's on the brink, if not there already. Guerrier has been equally inconsistent and mostly bad. Neither really deserves a spot on the roster. I would be happy to get rid of both and call up one of the stud relievers down on the farm in addition to Pino, Ryan Pressley, for example.
"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

#24 kdrupp09

kdrupp09

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 241 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:28 AM

Either one would be fine. They are not part of the solution and won't be part of the solution in a couple of years. Theilbar has done nothing wrong to get sent down.


This is a great point. The team needs to look at who will be parts of the solution in a year or even more likely 2 years, it is likely most would agree that neither Guerrier or Burton are part of even next years team. Thus someone like Tonkin or Pressly make much more sense than than either Guerrier or Burton.

Also, love the picture zenser.

#25 HansGruber

HansGruber

    Member

  • Members
  • 33 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:28 AM

Thielbar has a .531 OPS against lefties, which is pretty amazing. He is also been pretty good against righties (.613 OPS). We have used him 34 IP against lefties and 35 against righties, so I think that reflects that we use him against lefties but we are not afraid against righties (more hitters are right handed).

His FIP this year is about the same as his ERA, last year his FIP of 3.40 was much higher than his 1.75 ERA. BABIP was .175 last year, .239 this year. He certainly had some luck last year and maybe a bit this year. The HR rate has always been low. I would find other people to option or DFA though. To CMAT's point, he is the closest thing we have to a lefty specialist.


To be clear, I wasn't advocating on dumping Theilbar. My point was that Theilbar and Guerrier have performed well thus far so there isn't a reason to dump them over more obvious candidates. A low BABIP doesn't necessarily mean good luck it could be a sign of a hitters inability to square up on pitches thus hitting directly at players though Thielbars extreme flyball tendencies are a slight cause for concern.

#26 kdrupp09

kdrupp09

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 241 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:34 AM

I feel like it be the easiest move for the Twins to just move Pelf to the 60 day DL, it would be retroactive to when he first went on the DL anyway, so he wouldn't have that much longer on the DL either way.

This unfortunately keeps Burton on the team.

#27 HansGruber

HansGruber

    Member

  • Members
  • 33 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:38 AM

It only makes sense to remove outliers in large statistical samples. Relievers rarely if ever compile large enough statistical samples to make this work. Bert talks about relievers' ERA like you really can't count on it because one bad outing can skew it a lot. There is some truth to that. But when you only have a few outings, one bad one is meaningful. In Burton's case, he has had almost as many bad outings as good ones. There were several in a row where he got two outs, walked a couple of guys, and gave up a homer or a bases clearing double or something. He's been a little better of late. But he is definitely showing signs of the league figuring out his change. When that happens. he's D-O-N-E. I think he's on the brink, if not there already. Guerrier has been equally inconsistent and mostly bad. Neither really deserves a spot on the roster. I would be happy to get rid of both and call up one of the stud relievers down on the farm in addition to Pino, Ryan Pressley, for example.

When I wrote that I was under the impression that it was one outing of 7 runs given up which in roughly 30 innings appears as an obvious outlier. It was actually over two outings( 3 and 4 runs) which does not make it such an obvious outlier considering he has had multiple run performances scattered throughout the year.

#28 stringer bell

stringer bell

    Front office apologist

  • Twins News Team
  • 4,600 posts
  • LocationZumbrota MN

Posted 19 June 2014 - 10:01 AM

I feel like it be the easiest move for the Twins to just move Pelf to the 60 day DL, it would be retroactive to when he first went on the DL anyway, so he wouldn't have that much longer on the DL either way.

This unfortunately keeps Burton on the team.

That almost certainly will happen, however, they'll also have to make a move to take someone off the 25-man. If we have a rainout and the game is made up this weekend, the team could use Pino as the 26th man. Then they would have the option to send him back to Rochester (if he bombed) without sending someone else out. If they want him to make more than one start, that plan gets much muddier. Who knows? Maybe Perk ends up on the DL.

#29 cmathewson

cmathewson

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,273 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 10:36 AM

I think they are waiting for the rainout, just to kick the can down the street a bit. But they might also be waiting for a DFA to work it's way through the system prior to announcing it.
"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

#30 SD Buhr

SD Buhr

    Majoring in minors, minoring in Majors

  • Members
  • 964 posts

Posted 19 June 2014 - 12:08 PM

Given the weather situation, they'd be crazy to make a roster move until they absolutely know whether tonight's game is going to be played (or at least started). If it's not, Pino might not even be the starter they decide to promote. If they don't make the game up with a doubleheader this weekend, they wouldn't necessarily even need to promote anybody until the next time Deduno's spot comes up in the rotation.

Covering the Cedar Rapids Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com while my alter-ego, Jim Crikket, opines about the Twins and Kernels at Knuckleballsblog.com.

~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~