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#1 ScottyB

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Posted 18 June 2014 - 04:23 PM

Have the Twins announced who is coming off the 25-man to make room for Pino? Also I assume Pelfrey to the 60-day DL. Or will they wait because it looks to be raining all day tomorrow?

Edited by ScottyB, 18 June 2014 - 04:31 PM.


#2 SydneyTwinsFan

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Posted 18 June 2014 - 05:04 PM

Haven't heard. My guess would be optioning Thielbar

#3 jokin

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Posted 18 June 2014 - 06:18 PM

Haven't heard. My guess would be optioning Thielbar


I have been in favor of that option, I hope they consider it strongly.

But ScottyB is right, the Twins can use tomorrow's expected all-day forecast of inclement weather to keep their options wide open all the way up until it's determined if they cancel the game or not.....and they have announced that they wouldn't make a decision until some time tomorrow.

#4 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 18 June 2014 - 06:25 PM

I would have responded to this question earlier but I've been in a deep trance chanting "designate Jarod Burton for assignment" over and over and over.

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#5 Brandon

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Posted 18 June 2014 - 06:34 PM

I think they are waiting to see if they need to DL someone, or if they are trying to pass someone through waivers they may not want to announce it right away, or they may be trying to decide who to send down, a pitcher or bench player.

Burton isn't going anywhere as he has ups and downs but has a low to mid 4 era if you take out his 7 runs allowed total in back to back outings in early April. That happened right out of the gate so excusing that he has been decent for most of the season and seems to be back on track again as he has gotten us out of some tight jams this week.

#6 Buck Nasty

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Posted 18 June 2014 - 06:39 PM

Why do people think Thielbar would be the guy? He's left handed. He's only 27 and has been very good for them. His career totals: 5-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.89 WHIP. If that gets a guy demoted then there's something wrong with the guys running this organization.

#7 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 18 June 2014 - 06:40 PM

JAROD BURTON DOESN'T HAVE A LOW TO MID 4 ERA. YOU CAN'T JUST TAKE OUT BAD OUTINGS AND KEEP THE GOOD ONES.

I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE cherry picking stats. Jarod Burton is donezo.

Jardon Burton has gotten the Twins INTO more jams that out of them. Stop giving the guy so much credit. There are other guys in the bullpen and down in Rochester who can and should be allowed to pitch instead of Burton.

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#8 Thrylos

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Posted 18 June 2014 - 07:29 PM

Why do people think Thielbar would be the guy? He's left handed. He's only 27 and has been very good for them. His career totals: 5-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.89 WHIP. If that gets a guy demoted then there's something wrong with the guys running this organization.


Yeah.

Also .199 BABIP and 4.13 xFIP and a fastball that barely touches 90.

In other words, a disaster ready to happen yesterday. If anyone, ever, anyhow, picked the phone up and offered anything resembling a prospect for Thielbar, the Twins' brass will be nuts to pass. On the other hand...
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#9 Buck Nasty

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Posted 18 June 2014 - 07:54 PM

Yeah.

Also .199 BABIP and 4.13 xFIP and a fastball that barely touches 90.

In other words, a disaster ready to happen yesterday. If anyone, ever, anyhow, picked the phone up and offered anything resembling a prospect for Thielbar, the Twins' brass will be nuts to pass. On the other hand...


I think people get themselves in trouble when they try to over analyze. The guy has been getting people out for two years now. This isn't a week or a month hot streak. Teams don't get rid of guys because their BABIP is too low. They get rid of guys that are not performing i.e. giving up runs.

#10 Sconnie

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Posted 18 June 2014 - 08:26 PM

I think people get themselves in trouble when they try to over analyze. The guy has been getting people out for two years now. This isn't a week or a month hot streak. Teams don't get rid of guys because their BABIP is too low. They get rid of guys that are not performing i.e. giving up runs.

Ehhhh, I'd tread carefully. Thrylos knows his/hers stuff. Do I know Thrylos well enough to know gender? No. Do I know well enough to trust statistical analysis? Yes.

besides, you're using conventional wisdom for starters on a releiver. His xFIP suggests his BABIP will regress to the mean and his ERA will balloon. It's not a week or month hot streak, true, but he has a total of 76 appearances in the bigs. Far too small to trust over math.

#11 TKGuy

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Posted 18 June 2014 - 09:07 PM

I also think Thielbar will be optioned

#12 ashburyjohn

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Posted 18 June 2014 - 09:53 PM

Teams don't get rid of guys because their BABIP is too low.


Oakland, Tampa Bay, and maybe one or two others might. We should trade with them and steal away all their low-BABIP guys - it might be the newest market inefficiency. :)

#13 jokin

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Posted 18 June 2014 - 10:50 PM

Why do people think Thielbar would be the guy? He's left handed. He's only 27 and has been very good for them. His career totals: 5-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.89 WHIP. If that gets a guy demoted then there's something wrong with the guys running this organization.


You also have to factor in the fact that he still has valuable options available.

#14 howeda7

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Posted 18 June 2014 - 11:18 PM

I suspect they'll simply DL Nunez for now and kick the can down the road. Optioning Thielbar is ridiculous. If they won't cut bait with Burton, Swarzak should be it.

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 06:15 AM

His xFIP suggests his BABIP will regress to the mean and his ERA will balloon. It's not a week or month hot streak, true, but he has a total of 76 appearances in the bigs. Far too small to trust over math.

Are you sure that's how it works?

#16 cmathewson

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 06:46 AM

I don't think the Twins give a lick about a guy's velo if he gets people out. Pino is exhibit A. You don't option people based on expected failure. You option them based on current failure. If you look at how Gardy is using Thielbar, there is very little chance he gets optioned right now. He's the closest thing to a lefty specialist the Twins have.

Also, if they option Theilbar, they have to make a second move to open a spot on the 40 man. They could put Pelfrey on the 60-day, but I'm sure they don't want to if they don't have to.

I would look at DFAing either Burton or Guerrier. Either one would kill two turds with one stone, 25 man and 40 man.
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#17 Seth Stohs

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 07:19 AM

Why do people think Thielbar would be the guy? He's left handed. He's only 27 and has been very good for them. His career totals: 5-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.89 WHIP. If that gets a guy demoted then there's something wrong with the guys running this organization.


100% agree with this!

#18 HansGruber

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 07:43 AM

JAROD BURTON DOESN'T HAVE A LOW TO MID 4 ERA. YOU CAN'T JUST TAKE OUT BAD OUTINGS AND KEEP THE GOOD ONES.

I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE cherry picking stats. Jarod Burton is donezo.

Jardon Burton has gotten the Twins INTO more jams that out of them. Stop giving the guy so much credit. There are other guys in the bullpen and down in Rochester who can and should be allowed to pitch instead of Burton.


It's not exactly cherry picking stats it's removing outliers which is what should be done in statistical analysis. That being said, a mid 4 era for a reliever is awful and the conclusion is the same, Burton is done and should be the first to go.

Along those lines, I wasn't happy with the Guerrier call up but now that he's here and performing okay I don't see the need to dump him when there are worse performers like Swarzak and Burton still on the roster. Same for Theilbar.

#19 tobi0040

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:05 AM

It's not exactly cherry picking stats it's removing outliers which is what should be done in statistical analysis. That being said, a mid 4 era for a reliever is awful and the conclusion is the same, Burton is done and should be the first to go.

Along those lines, I wasn't happy with the Guerrier call up but now that he's here and performing okay I don't see the need to dump him when there are worse performers like Swarzak and Burton still on the roster. Same for Theilbar.


Thielbar has a .531 OPS against lefties, which is pretty amazing. He is also been pretty good against righties (.613 OPS). We have used him 34 IP against lefties and 35 against righties, so I think that reflects that we use him against lefties but we are not afraid against righties (more hitters are right handed).

His FIP this year is about the same as his ERA, last year his FIP of 3.40 was much higher than his 1.75 ERA. BABIP was .175 last year, .239 this year. He certainly had some luck last year and maybe a bit this year. The HR rate has always been low. I would find other people to option or DFA though. To CMAT's point, he is the closest thing we have to a lefty specialist.

#20 zenser

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:09 AM

I would look at DFAing either Burton or Guerrier. Either one would kill two turds with one stone, 25 man and 40 man.


Either one would be fine. They are not part of the solution and won't be part of the solution in a couple of years. Theilbar has done nothing wrong to get sent down.