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After several tough losses

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#21 beckmt

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 07:30 PM

I think we should do the fire sale and expect to be between 70-72 wins. You will gain nothing by playing the decline players and getting to 76 wins. Call up the kids in the next two months and lets see what they have. That would lead to hope for 2016.

#22 notoriousgod71

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 07:31 PM

Under. This team has completely collapsed following the all-star break three straight years after showing "improvement" during the first couple months.

#23 Willihammer

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 10:55 AM

Relief totals from the past 5 games:

[TABLE="width: 500"]

[TABLE="width: 517"]

Relievers
IP
H
ER
ERA
BB
K
HR


Burton
[TD="align: right"]2.1
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]


Duensing
[TD="align: right"]2.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]


Fien
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]


Guerrier
[TD="align: right"]3.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.70[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]


Swarzak
[TD="align: right"]1.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.27[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]


Thielbar
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.50[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]












total
[TD="align: right"]10.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]


average
[TD="align: right"]3.11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.57[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.91[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.14[/TD]

[/TABLE]
[/TD]










[/TABLE]

Who's missing?

That would be the Twins best reliever.

Gardy's gotta find a way to get Perk into close games.

#24 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:07 AM

I'm guessing he would have pitched yesterday (at least) had he not been ill.

#25 mike wants wins

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:08 AM

Not sure, but they need to get the AAA guys up here to learn about them, unlike the last few years, imo.

#26 Shane Wahl

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:25 AM

The Twins will win 77 games this year.

The order, right now, should be: Santana, Escobar, Mauer, Dozier, Willingham, Morales, Arcia, Suzuki, Fuld

#27 Willihammer

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:26 AM

I'm guessing he would have pitched yesterday (at least) had he not been ill.


Fair enough. And actually, looking back at the game logs, the relief really wasn't that bad, aside from Fien (who I like as much as Perk). Take Swarzak's mopup appearance in DET out of the sample and they've been pretty good.

I still think Perk should never sit even 4 games in a row though.

#28 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:34 AM

Fair enough. And actually, looking back at the game logs, the relief really wasn't that bad, aside from Fien (who I like as much as Perk). Take Swarzak's mopup appearance in DET out of the sample and they've been pretty good.

I still think Perk should never sit even 4 games in a row though.

Yeah - I agree - Perkins is the best bullpen arm the Twins have, he should be used more often than just the classic save situation.

#29 Mike Frasier Law

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:53 AM

I pegged them for 71 wins before the season started. I'll take the over, and that's assuming (and hoping for) the fire sale. The Twins were pegged to have the toughest schedule to start the season (not sure how that compares to prior years), and survived it. Some of it was riding some really lucky and unexpected hot streaks, and some was legitimate, sustainable performances. I don't think I need to name names.

The Twins are not going to make the playoffs. Before the season started, I hoped Willingham and Correia would start out hot, but the Twins would tank, so we could and would trade them. The start to the season was the exact opposite, but it looks like that's what's happening now. Subtract Correia, Willingham, Morales, and Florimon from the team and you don't lose much - maybe 2 wins. But with them gone, you have May, more Arcia and Escobar, and who knows who else - maybe Rosario. Better for the future certainly, and it may not hurt 2014 too much.

#30 Rosterman

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:55 AM

It's such a tough call. The starters HAVE to improve from season's beginning. But what is causing the lapse in hitting. I say lineup construction overall. Should Dozier be batting second, or should it be Suzucki or Escobar. Who bats in front or behind each other to draw better pitches. What IS going on with Mauer?
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#31 Winston Smith

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 12:06 PM

Yeah - I agree - Perkins is the best bullpen arm the Twins have, he should be used more often than just the classic save situation.


How many times did we have this same discussion when Nathan was the closers?

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#32 ericchri

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 12:39 PM

It's easy to see how things could potentially still work out this season and have a chance at the playoffs, but it's also pretty easy to see how unlikely that is. Maybe if they'd won 2 or 3 of these close games recently I'd feel a little different, but they're in last place in their division and though theoretically closer to the wildcard in number of games behind, they have to get past 8 teams in the standings to get that spot. The record is still theoretically OK, but that's a whole bunch of teams they need to leapfrog. A few of them sure I can see that, but it seems unlikely to get past all of them. And yet, Kansas City just won 10 in a row to get into 1st place in the division, and you'd have had a hard time finding anyone predicting that two weeks ago, so crazy stuff can happen.

I'm less concerned about when some of these guys get promoted than I am over them getting promoted. May and Meyer have to pitch in the majors this year. Have to. If it's only a month or two, so be it, but they absolutely have to get that experience, to see what it's like so they can spend the offseason having the knowledge of what needs work. That means some guys who are on the roster right now need to go. While I'd prefer to see him get starts, I'm actually OK with Meyer getting his experience in the pen due to the care they're taking with his shoulder this year, but May definitely looks like he should start.

Trade Correia is obvious, even if the return isn't better than some C-grade A-baller with a tiny chance at the majors. Trade Burton and Guerrier if possible, but DFA them when it becomes obvious nobody wants them. The roster spots are more important for people to get their major league experience.

I'm not sure with the hitters. It's hard to point at guys who really need to be up soon to get their experience of what the majors are really like. If it looks like you'll get something of value for Willingham or Morales, I guess I'd trade them. Parmelee can be traded/DFA'd without much concern. I think I'd hang onto Suzuki, cause Herrmann/Fryer as our catcher options seems ugly, and I think Pinto's sticking at AAA for quite a while now due to his defense/receiving/game-calling/pitch-framing, or whatever it is that constitutes catching. That'd give Vargas a chance and maybe Rosario. Hard to really see anybody else that's a potential part of the future that benefits that much this season, most of our hitting prospects are still a year or more away.

This lineup is quickly becoming a drag to watch, though. Dozier and Santana are exciting (even when they're slumping a bit, I still find myself expecting something good when they're hitting), Escobar too, but after that? I like Willingham, but he's 35. Mauer looks lost, Morales and Suzuki are rentals, Plouffe looks improved but he's still pretty average, and Arcia quickly returned to swinging out of his shoes at every pitch. As iffy as our lineup is already, how bad will it be if we move 2 or 3 of our only decent hitters?

#33 nicksaviking

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 01:48 PM

Not bashing the team at all, but I suspect their win total will be lower. As bad as the offense has been recently, I think it will get worse. So many guys are playing over their head right now. Maybe Mauer will pick up the pace, but no way Santana, Suzuki, Escobar and Willingham replicate their first half numbers. Willingham's OPS has actually dropped over 100 points this week alone. I think the slide continues for a bit.

#34 Thor

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 02:59 PM

Call me an optimist but I call 80 wins and 82 losses.

#35 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 03:05 PM

The Twins are now on the unlucky side of the coin. 32-38 overall record, 33-37 expected pythag record. 9-13 in one-run games.

Essentially, they rode incredible luck through April and have been incredibly unlucky after that point, ending up close to neutral.

#36 birdwatcher

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 04:05 PM

Had them at 74 preseason and I'll stick with it. There's always a high probability of two or more injuries to starters over the course of a season, and we've had one go down. I don't have as much faith as many of you that any of the AAA starters are going to come up here and perform as well as the pitchers currently in the rotation, Pino excepted.

#37 Thrylos

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 04:45 PM

After I saw them play this Spring Training, my prediction was 70-92 for these reasons. And these reasons started to rear their ugly head the last couple weeks.

I stand by it, and I hope I am wrong.

Also, I just cannot believe that any fan would think that a 70-some win season is a "success" for his or her team. Very hard to wrap my mind across that concept.
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#38 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 06:20 AM

After I saw them play this Spring Training, my prediction was 70-92 for these reasons. And these reasons started to rear their ugly head the last couple weeks.

I stand by it, and I hope I am wrong.

Also, I just cannot believe that any fan would think that a 70-some win season is a "success" for his or her team. Very hard to wrap my mind across that concept.


Maybe for an NBA or NHL fan it makes sense, not as much for baseball..

#39 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 06:27 AM

After I saw them play this Spring Training, my prediction was 70-92 for these reasons. And these reasons started to rear their ugly head the last couple weeks.


The past few weeks have shown that this team has a legit starting pitching staff, assuming they stay healthy them alone will ensure that the Twins don't lose 90+ games.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald

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#40 kdrupp09

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 06:35 AM

The past few weeks have shown that this team has a legit starting pitching staff, assuming they stay healthy them alone will ensure that the Twins don't lose 90+ games.


I was just going to say something similar to this, the starting pitching is much improved this year, as evidence by the Twins losing games 2-1 (Red Sox) inside of 10-1. The starting pitching will keep the Twins from losing 90 games this season.