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Article: Minnesota Twins Minor League Report (6/11): Boss Berrios

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 11 June 2014 - 10:19 PM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...e-Report-(6-11)

#2 clutterheart

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 12:36 AM

Polanco has been leading off a lot these days. I'm not sure that is the place for him. He gets on base enough, but I think 2 or 3 suits better.
It seems that his slump has corresponded to that switch, but I can't find stats to that level of detail for FM.

#3 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 12:57 AM

Polanco has been leading off a lot these days. I'm not sure that is the place for him. He gets on base enough, but I think 2 or 3 suits better.
It seems that his slump has corresponded to that switch, but I can't find stats to that level of detail for FM.


Polanco isn't going to be a 3-4-5-6 type of hitter in the big leagues. He'll be a 1-2-8-9 hitter in the big leagues. It's about getting him as many plate appearances as they can, and that can be leading off. The spot in the batting order shouldn't affect his approach.

#4 clutterheart

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 02:59 AM

If I was a betting man, I would see him as a #2 hitter. But maybe #3 If he is a 8th or 9th hitter when/if he becomes a big league regular, something went wrong.

#5 Tibs

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 06:20 AM

Did Pino take someone's spot in the AAA rotation?

#6 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 07:09 AM

If I was a betting man, I would see him as a #2 hitter. But maybe #3 If he is a 8th or 9th hitter when/if he becomes a big league regular, something went wrong.


He's not a power hitter. As Lew Ford once told me, there are guys who drive in runs and there are guys who score runs. I would say that Polanco fits into the latter category. I think that he can be a #2 hitter, and that would be great. If he's hitting 8th or 9th, that means the lineup if functioning really well and that would likely be a pretty exciting team to watch.

#7 SD Buhr

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 07:14 AM

If I was a betting man, I would see him as a #2 hitter. But maybe #3 If he is a 8th or 9th hitter when/if he becomes a big league regular, something went wrong.


When you take into consideration who all should be in the Twins' line up along with Polanco by the time he reaches the Show, I might argue that if he's your #3-4-5-6 hitter, something went wrong with several other guys.

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#8 LimestoneBaggy

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 07:21 AM

If I was a betting man, I would see him as a #2 hitter. But maybe #3 If he is a 8th or 9th hitter when/if he becomes a big league regular, something went wrong.


Or something went really right :D
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#9 slash129

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 07:28 AM

So does JO get the bump to New Britain after the first half wraps up, or is he better served staying at this level a full season considering his age?

#10 Trevor0333

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 07:29 AM

Berrios has been utterly dominating, bump him up a level already.

#11 nicksaviking

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 07:36 AM

If I was a betting man, I would see him as a #2 hitter. But maybe #3 If he is a 8th or 9th hitter when/if he becomes a big league regular, something went wrong.


Since when did we start setting the bar so high for our middle infielders?

Can't wait to see Berrios in AA. When/if that happens he will be two levels ahead of Eades and picked only one year before him. I think the perception of "safe" or "MLB ready" pitchers is largely over-estimated.

Edited by nicksaviking, 12 June 2014 - 07:40 AM.


#12 SD Buhr

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 07:38 AM

If you assume a couple of the AAA pitchers (say Meyer and May, just for the sake of argument) will move up in June and the guys they replace are released or traded, that would set off a chain reaction and I'd expect Berrios to get promoted.

Almost everyone in the Twins organization that I've ever asked about promotions have said some form of, "when a guy dominates his current level over an extended period where he faces teams more than once, we start looking to promote him." Pretty hard to find many guys that description fits more appropriately than Berrios right now.

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#13 slash129

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 07:43 AM

Since when did we start setting the bar so high for our middle infielders?


Hey, these numbers are to be regularly expected :)

[TABLE="class: stats_table, width: 789"]
[TR]
[TD="class: dg-g, align: center"]64[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-ab, align: center"]251[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-r, align: center"]54[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-h, align: center"]61[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-tb, align: center"]114[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-d, align: center"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-t, align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-hr, align: center"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-rbi, align: center"]33[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-bb, align: center"]41[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-ibb, align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-so, align: center"]53[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-sb, align: center"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-cs, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-avg, align: center"].243[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-obp, align: center"].353[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-slg, align: center"].454[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-ops, align: center"].808[/TD]
[TD="class: dg-go_ao, align: center"]0.77[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

#14 twinsbaby

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 07:51 AM

[COLOR=#3E3E3E]Fernando Romero pitched [/COLOR][COLOR=#3E3E3E]four innings, but he just 1 K. So, is he another overrated prospect or just pitch-to-contact? Why our pitchers always can't miss crazy bats?

Jose Berrios is a better prospect than Kohl Stewart. NOT EVEN CLOSE. He is legit.[/COLOR]

#15 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 08:27 AM

Got to think Berrios is headed to NB soon.

#16 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 08:37 AM

Regarding Berrios to AA... my thoughts a month ago were that he had pitched well but was so young, so let's see how he continues to do. At this point, he's at a half-season of dominance. I'd say 2-3 more starts like this and he could move up.

#17 twinsin17

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 09:32 AM

What is Berrios doing better this season that is making him more effective than he was against inferior competition in A ball?

#18 2wins87

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 09:32 AM

[COLOR=#3E3E3E]Fernando Romero pitched [/COLOR][COLOR=#3E3E3E]four innings, but he just 1 K. So, is he another overrated prospect or just pitch-to-contact? Why our pitchers always can't miss crazy bats?[/COLOR]


Jeez, small sample size much? He had 6 Ks in 5 innings in his first start. I wouldn't sweat a single performance.

Reports are that he's added a few more MPHs to his fastball this year and his breaking ball is a legit swing and miss pitch if it's on.

#19 2wins87

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 09:38 AM

Berrios started falling a part a bit (presumably due to fatigue) around this time last year. That said, his first half has been even better than last year and he's already pitched a lot more innings than he had this time last year. The biggest thing is to see him hold up through the entire season. It'd be pretty nice to see him knocking on the door to the majors next year, but I'm more worried about seeing him build up his stamina this year rather than how quickly he moves.

#20 Badsmerf

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 10:17 AM

[COLOR=#3E3E3E]Fernando Romero pitched [/COLOR][COLOR=#3E3E3E]four innings, but he just 1 K. So, is he another overrated prospect or just pitch-to-contact? Why our pitchers always can't miss crazy bats?

Jose Berrios is a better prospect than Kohl Stewart. NOT EVEN CLOSE. He is legit.[/COLOR]


Care to define what NOT EVEN CLOSE is? Kohl Stewart is widely regarded as a potential Ace with a plus fastball and plus slider. Berrios is a year further along and is therefor more polished. Lets see how Stewart performs the rest of the year.

Not taking anything away from Berrios, but you're not being fair to a guy that has 75 professional innings.
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#21 SD Buhr

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 11:22 AM

What is Berrios doing better this season that is making him more effective than he was against inferior competition in A ball?


A year ago, Berrios spent the weeks leading up to the season being used sparingly out of the Puerto Rico bullpen in the WBC. When he did join the CR rotation later in April, he was still being stretched out. He had stuff, but he also tended to lose some composure/focus when things started going bad in a particular inning (as often happens at low-A).

I haven't seen him since March in ST, but I would speculate that having a full spring training to prepare for a rotation role and another full year of physical/mental maturity may combine to see the improved results this season. Hopefully, a more 'normal' year also will mean having the stamina to be more effective through to the end of the minor league season.

I'm really glad to see him having this kind of success this year.

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#22 chamoman

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 12:20 PM

I agree with 2wins87 that there is no sample size to judge Romero or Thorpe yet. C'mon! What is more, these are minor leaguers working on pitches, approaches, and mechanics, not just going for numbers. That is why evaluating prospects is not just a question of spreadsheets.

As any Twins fan, I am also excited to watch Berríos excel this year. As JimCrikket mentioned re: stamina, the good news is that he's already at 70 innings, 30 shy of the 100 he ended up at last year, and there are no signs of slowing down (knock on wood). My only nagging doubt has to do with him being flyball prone in the pitcher-friendly FSL. This factor is always listed as a caveat when judging hitters' performances. So, how much might the size of stadiums be helping José Orlando keep the ball in the park? Any idea from people who have seen him recently?

His HR/9 rate is down from 0.5 to 0.4 from 2013 to 2014, but that may be a park-independent improvement, like his improved H/9, BB/9, and strikeout rate. The homerun rate should be something to watch for in New Britain, whenever he makes it there.

#23 Dantes929

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 02:20 PM

Regarding charoman's comment I am not in love with the strikeout at all costs mentality. Its true that our starters lacked strikeout ability but its not just about power arms. They also lacked stuff and control. If you look at the team ERA leaders they are mostly middle of the pack for strikeouts. If you look at the strikeout leaders they are mostly middle of the pack ERA. Bottom of league strikeouts is a problem. To become top of the league should not be the goal. The goal should be best of league for ERA. The best way to achieve that is with stuff and control. Mph is a subset of stuff. It is not the universe.

#24 nicksaviking

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 02:54 PM

Regarding charoman's comment I am not in love with the strikeout at all costs mentality. Its true that our starters lacked strikeout ability but its not just about power arms. They also lacked stuff and control. If you look at the team ERA leaders they are mostly middle of the pack for strikeouts. If you look at the strikeout leaders they are mostly middle of the pack ERA. Bottom of league strikeouts is a problem. To become top of the league should not be the goal. The goal should be best of league for ERA. The best way to achieve that is with stuff and control. Mph is a subset of stuff. It is not the universe.


This is not true, you'll see that the top pitchers in the league tend to strikeout more batters. Besides, I think ERA is outdated. What's an Earned run anyway? All runs are Earned in my book as they would be 100% preventable had the pitcher struck out the batter as God intended him to.

#25 Pitz

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 03:15 PM

This is not true, you'll see that the top pitchers in the league tend to strikeout more batters. Besides, I think ERA is outdated. What's an Earned run anyway? All runs are Earned in my book as they would be 100% preventable had the pitcher struck out the batter as God intended him to.


What if strike 3 is a passed ball, and upon retrieving it, the catcher throws wildly to first allowing the runner to go to second. As the pitcher strikes out the next batter, the runner attempts to steal third and the catcher's throw skips away, and the runner scampers home. The pitcher strikes out the next 2 batters en route to an improbable 28 strike out performance, going even above and beyond what God intended, yet he loses the game 1-0 as the opposing pitchers scatter 8 hits.

#26 mike wants wins

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 03:25 PM

KLAW called him an extreme flyball pitcher, who has been helped by pitching most of his innings at home today on this chat. I am not saying I agree or disagree, just passing that along.
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#27 jokin

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 04:03 PM

KLAW called him an extreme flyball pitcher, who has been helped by pitching most of his innings at home today on this chat. I am not saying I agree or disagree, just passing that along.


Yeah, I caught that, too. Pretty simplistic dismissal of Berrios, attributing most of his success to Hammond Stadium?:

Vic (hopeful twins fan in Minnesota) [via mobile]



[COLOR=#333333][FONT=verdana]Jose Berrios has been pitching great as of late(12.0 K/9). What is his ceiling in the majors?[/FONT][/COLOR]
Klaw (1:58 PM)




[COLOR=#333333][FONT=verdana]Still an extreme flyball guy - and he's been helped by throwing about 70% of his innings at home this year.



[/FONT][/COLOR]

#28 jokin

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 04:09 PM

Yeah, I caught that, too. Pretty simplistic dismissal of Berrios, attributing most of his success to Hammond Stadium?:

Vic (hopeful twins fan in Minnesota) [via mobile]



[COLOR=#333333][FONT=verdana]Jose Berrios has been pitching great as of late(12.0 K/9). What is his ceiling in the majors?[/FONT][/COLOR]
Klaw (1:58 PM)
[COLOR=#333333][FONT=verdana]Still an extreme flyball guy - and he's been helped by throwing about 70% of his innings at home this year.
[/FONT][/COLOR]


Hey Klaw, how about the 28% K-rate, stadium-related? (3rd best in FSL, the two pitchers ahead of him are 25 and 21 years old).

#29 TKGuy

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 04:42 PM

Isn't that Phil Hughes, a fly ball pitcher

#30 RodneyKline

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 04:55 PM

He's not a power hitter. As Lew Ford once told me, there are guys who drive in runs and there are guys who score runs. I would say that Polanco fits into the latter category. I think that he can be a #2 hitter, and that would be great. If he's hitting 8th or 9th, that means the lineup if functioning really well and that would likely be a pretty exciting team to watch.


Funny...so many of us have been complaining that Mauer should be #2 and not 3rd for this exact reason but we are slammed for being Mauer haters. I actually think he should be a lead off hitter because he normally gets on base, he can't hit into a double play in his first at bat as he likes to do a lot and he is not that slow to clog up the bases.