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Trevor Cahill DFA'd by Dbacks (Twins should take a flyer)

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#1 PseudoSABR

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 07:14 PM

Cahill is just 1 - 6 with of 5.66, but his FIP/xFIP is right at career norms, and his BABIP is 100 points above career norms. He's walking an extra better per inning but his strikeouts are way up. His contract calls for another eight million this year, twelve and half next, and options after that.

I wonder if the Dbacks would be willing to eat some salary, if we took him off their hands.

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Edited by PseudoSABR, 09 June 2014 - 07:16 PM.


#2 TKGuy

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 07:23 PM

Another guy to block May and Meyer, no thanks

#3 drock2190

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 07:28 PM

Straight trade for Kevin Correia.

#4 kab21

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 08:25 PM

Another guy to block May and Meyer, no thanks


His ERA's the last 4 years
2.97
4.16
3.78
3.99

His velocity is actually up this year (mostly in the bullpen). He's K'ing more batters. He's 26. The Twins should be getting this guy regardless of his bad 2 month start. May probably isn't better than him and Meyer will create space in the rotation when he's ready.

#5 PseudoSABR

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 09:02 PM

Straight trade for Kevin Correia.

The chucklehouse that his the dbacks, it might just happen. They value veteran moxie more than the Twins.

#6 Beezer07

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 09:22 PM

I'd definitely take a flyer on him. Give us another guy that's still a year or two from his peak (hopefully) and give us a rotation next year of Gibson, Hughes, Cahill, Meyer, ?

#7 darin617

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 09:42 PM

  • No way would I pick him up. Just look at the contract.
  • 2014 $7.7M
  • 2015 $12M
  • 2016 team option $13M, $300K buyout
  • 2017 team option $13.5M $500K buyout

#8 jorgenswest

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 09:45 PM

I don't think Arizona is giving up on him. They need to pass him through waivers to get him to AAA and have a chance to work through his struggle. He is willing to go. They are risking someone will claim him. That team would be responsible for about 17 million through 2015 plus a buyout. That team would also need to keep him in the majors.

#9 Twins Daily Admin

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 09:53 PM

Wow. Talk about high risk, high reward. I honestly have no idea what I would do. But I'd sure think about grabbing him. This team could still spend some money.

#10 jokin

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 10:16 PM

Wow. Talk about high risk, high reward. I honestly have no idea what I would do. But I'd sure think about grabbing him. This team could still spend some money.


This player represents the kind of need, and this is the kind of deal, that will prove if the Twins are going for it or not....Kab is right, he's better than May right now, and potentially better than almost everyone else on this staff, for that matter.

To play you have to pay. The 2 team options for 2016 and 17 are actually an enhancer to making this deal, not a deterrent.

Edited by jokin, 09 June 2014 - 10:26 PM.


#11 jemihami

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 10:18 PM

Well, because of the new national television contract, they are +$25 million in revenue over 2013.

#12 gunnarthor

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 10:30 PM

He'd be a pretty big risk. I know some people see the 44 strike outs in 41 innings but that's way above his career norm (6.1 k/9 and 5.5 k/9 in the AL). And both his walks and hits are up this year.

#13 jokin

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 10:49 PM

He'd be a pretty big risk. I know some people see the 44 strike outs in 41 innings but that's way above his career norm (6.1 k/9 and 5.5 k/9 in the AL). And both his walks and hits are up this year.


It looks like it's an issue with the sinker, his GB% is way down. Other bad luck numbers stand out, as Pseudo mentioned BABIP for one, as well as a low strand rate- there's a rookie SS in Arizona, that may or may be an issue, but the year over year comparisons- DPR, RngR, Inside Edge rates, are all down at SS for the D-Backs.

Again, his K rate is above his career norm, but his FIP/xFIP in 2014 come in comfortably below his career averages.

#14 kab21

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 10:52 PM

  • No way would I pick him up. Just look at the contract.
  • 2014 $7.7M
  • 2015 $12M
  • 2016 team option $13M, $300K buyout
  • 2017 team option $13.5M $500K buyout


I don't expect the team to spend all of the money it could next season so a 1.5 yr commitment does not concern me at all. tbh it's almost perfect. If it works out they have him locked up through 2017.

#15 jokin

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Posted 09 June 2014 - 11:13 PM

I don't expect the team to spend all of the money it could next season so a 1.5 yr commitment does not concern me at all. tbh it's almost perfect. If it works out they have him locked up through 2017.


Right, it's likely more than $12M , maybe closer to double that, is coming off the books in 2015.

#16 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 08:45 AM

one way to look at it - Cahill hypothetically replaces the spot vacated by Mike Pelfrey ...

#17 nicksaviking

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 08:56 AM

Cahill is just 1 - 6 with of 5.66, but his FIP/xFIP is right at career norms, and his BABIP is 100 points above career norms. He's walking an extra better per inning but his strikeouts are way up. His contract calls for another eight million this year, twelve and half next, and options after that.

I wonder if the Dbacks would be willing to eat some salary, if we took him off their hands.

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fangraphs


An extra batter per inning? Damn that's a lot!

I don't want that contract and I'd guess the Diamondbacks would give him away to anyone who claimed him. I'd take a flier on him on a modest 2 year deal but even at his best, I'm not a huge fan. He's just another PTC arm who makes his defense get 80% of his outs for him.

#18 Kirby_waved_at_me

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 09:08 AM

Sounds like a prototypical #4 or #5 Twins Starter... I am curious which team walks away first from a straight up swap of Cahill for Correia.

#19 mike wants wins

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 10:21 AM

Interesting idea. If it works, wow. If not, you blocked some good AAA options. Last year, this is a no brainer. This year, not sure. If it works would you consider dealing May for a SS or catcher?

#20 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 10:29 AM

Yikes. A risky proposition but one that could pay huge dividends.