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Nick Burdi Vs Carlos Gutierrez & Billy Bullock

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#1 darin617

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 04:00 PM

I would like to know if there will be any comparisons between the 3 listed pitchers that the Twins have drafted.

Carlos Gutierrez was drafted 27th overall in the 2008 draft. He was supposed to be on the fast track to the Majors and be a future closer who never panned out.

Billy Bullock was drafted in the 2nd round in 2009 and he did put up great numbers for the Twins but was dealt to Atlanta so the Twins could keep Scott Diamond. He is now out of baseball and just couldn't make it in Atlanta.

So this brings us to Nick Burdi who the Twins just drafted who is supposed really close to being ready. I just hope the Twins don't hold him back and use the "we don't want to rush him to the majors" and waste an opportunity to get a huge arm in the bullpen soon.

#2 Brandon

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 04:14 PM

Don't forget to include Jesse Crain in this discussion. How was he successful on his fast track to the majors?

#3 kab21

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 04:23 PM

Gutierrez was never on the fast track to the majors or becoming the next closer. He was a closer in college partly due having TJ in what I believe was his sophomore year. They didn't want to push him too hard his junior year so they put him at closer. He was drafted and developed to be a starter. He is also incredibly different from Burdi since gutierrez had a low 90's hard sinker and a what looked like a nice slider that he never really used effectively. Almost nothing in common with Burdi or Bullock.

Bullock was very similar (but not as good) to Burdi and can serve as an example of how poor command despite good college BB rates still means poor command. Burdi had a career 3.2 BB/9 (trending better albeit) vs Bullock 3.5 (trending worse). Just because you can be effectively wild in college doesn't mean that pro hitters in AA/AAA/MLB will swing at anything. Or they still might as seen by several top MLB setup guys and closers with poor BB rates.

#4 drivlikejehu

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 04:27 PM

College relievers taken in the first 3 rounds since Crain (in 2002):

Gutierrez
Bullock
Williams
Bard
Melotakis
Chargois

#5 Thrylos

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 04:53 PM

So this brings us to Nick Burdi who the Twins just drafted who is supposed really close to being ready. I just hope the Twins don't hold him back and use the "we don't want to rush him to the majors" and waste an opportunity to get a huge arm in the bullpen soon.


Burdi can pitch today in the Twins' pen and be better than Burton. He is 21.5. Really high on him. Repeat Twins' draft pick, btw. Righty comparable to Chapman and I think that he has all the tools to have similar career. I will be disappointed if he did not start this season at least at Cedar Rapids if not at Fort Myers and get a ST invite next season. He is ready.
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#6 Brandon

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 05:24 PM

I don't remember Crain being in the minors too long.

#7 Thrylos

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 05:36 PM

I don't remember Crain being in the minors too long.


2.5 years. Too long, if you remember that the Twins were dragging the remains of Jesse Orosco, Terry Mulholland, Carlos Pulido, Mike Fetters et. al in their pen, while Crain was killing it in Fort Myers and New Britain in 2003. And they started him in E-town. And Crain was a year and a half younger than Burdi when he signed.
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#8 jorgenswest

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 07:22 PM

I am seeking similar college relievers who have been successful. Sorting by fastball velocity. Craig Kimbrel comes up first.

Kimbrel was drafted in the 3rd round in 2008. He arrived in the majors in May 2010. He didn't stick and returned in September.

His path
2008 R,A,A+
2009 A+,AA,AAA
2010 AAA-Majors-AAA-Majors-AAA-Majors

Is that path too conservative? Burdi would be up for good at the end of 2016.

Kimbrel was a year younger when drafted.

#9 Thrylos

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:06 PM

I am seeking similar college relievers who have been successful. Sorting by fastball velocity. Craig Kimbrel comes up first.

Kimbrel was drafted in the 3rd round in 2008. He arrived in the majors in May 2010. He didn't stick and returned in September.

His path
2008 R,A,A+
2009 A+,AA,AAA
2010 AAA-Majors-AAA-Majors-AAA-Majors

Is that path too conservative? Burdi would be up for good at the end of 2016.

Kimbrel was a year younger when drafted.


You got to also look at how were the teams doing and who was blocking them. The Braves were contenders then (other than 2008 of course) while the Twins are bottom feeders now.

'09 they had Soriano, Gonzalez and Moylan and Medlen up and coming, 2010 they added Wagner and Saito for the first 2 and had a pen with 5 guys with ERAs under 3. Different than the Twins' recent pen...
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#10 Seth Stohs

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:10 PM

jorgen, for some on these boards, if Burdi isn't up by July, it will be too conservative...

#11 jorgenswest

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 08:57 PM

I was fun watching him blow away Kenesaw State tonight. Consistent 98-99 on the gun. I'd love to see him in July. The jump from Kenesaw State to the AL is quite steep though.

#12 DocBauer

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 09:36 PM

If Burdi is what he appears to be, I figure Cedar Rapids to start, and a very possible/probable promotion and split to his season in Ft Meyers. That puts him on track for AA to begin 2015, or at worst, an early promotion after getting his legs under him. That could easily mean a Rochester promotion at some point, and a shot at the ML level 2016. Late 2015? Maybe.

What could hold him back some this year, however, could be a later season case of arm fatigue after a season of college ball.

Maybe it's just me, but as I've stated before, I'm seeing a subtle switch in the Twins brain trust to be a little more aggressive, and a little less patient at the same time. In other words, they just seem quicker to pull the trigger when someone deserves to move, and quicker to move someone down if not producing. I suppose three bad years, and a wave of prospects moving up will do that to a team.

Im expecting a lot of mid season promotions here pretty soon as draftees sign and the rookie leagues begin.

#13 cmb0252

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 09:40 PM

jorgen, for some on these boards, if Burdi isn't up by July, it will be too conservative...


Why draft a RPer if you don't rush them to the bigs? The only reason he was projected to be a 1st round pick was because experts figured teams would see him as a player whom could help now rather than later. His "massive" 1 WAR a year isn't the reason.

#14 darin617

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 10:24 PM

Why draft a RPer if you don't rush them to the bigs? The only reason he was projected to be a 1st round pick was because experts figured teams would see him as a player whom could help now rather than later. His "massive" 1 WAR a year isn't the reason.


Exactly! Someone else has the same reasoning for drafting a relief pitcher so high. The sad part of playing for the Twins is that he may be up by the end of 2016 if he is lucky.

#15 kab21

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 10:30 PM

He should start in Ft Myers this season and the 3rd rd should start in Cedar Rapids. Burdi played in a top college program and top college players don't need to start in the midwest league. I don't think he would need to be promoted this season unless he destroys it there but his performance should dictate when he gets promoted. I could see 2014 at Ft Myers and 1/2 of 2015 in AA with a promotion to the Twins if he looks good.

#16 nicksaviking

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 11:56 PM

Who was the last Twin's pick who didn't have to go to the rookie leagues right away? Levi Michael I think. I don't think they've let anyone go straight to A ball the last two years, not even the "fast track" college arms.

#17 kab21

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 01:43 AM

It takes a high draft pick and top level college competition to skip right to A ball. here are pitchers that have done it recently.

guys who skipped rk ball
gibson
wimmers
gutierrez

guys who made a few appearances and moved up to A ball quickly
Zac Jones
Melatokis
Bullock

Burdi is a better prospect than any of the last 3 and because he is a RP'er (drafted lower than starters) his skill level is at least on par with the first 3.

#18 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 06:48 AM

I thought Burdi wasn't expected to start?

#19 jorgenswest

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 07:39 AM

One reliever drafted in 2013 has pitched in the majors this year. The Indians drafted lefty Kyle Crockett from Virginia and he pitched in three games in May.

his path

2013: A-, A, AA
2014: AA, Majors, AAA

He is currently in AAA.

Paco Rodriguez is a a Dodger lefty reliever from Florida. He was drafted round 2 in 2012.

2012: A, AA, majors
2013: majors
2014: Majors, AAA

He is currently in AAA.

Both pitchers started below high A.

Edited by jorgenswest, 07 June 2014 - 07:50 AM.


#20 kab21

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Posted 07 June 2014 - 08:11 AM

I thought Burdi wasn't expected to start?


start the season...